Canadian Federal Election

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by Hecate

Why no mention of the crazy Muslim convert, who gunned down a soldier and then stormed parliament hill in 2014? Is that cause the conservatives were in power?

We were talking about recent online vitriol prompting nut jobs to target the PM and Liberals.

I remember that guy storming Parliament but can’t recall any kind of targeted intention. He wasn’t going after Harper. He was just mentally ill iirc.

[Hecate]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

We were talking about recent online vitriol prompting nut jobs to target the PM and Liberals.

I remember that guy storming Parliament but can’t recall any kind of targeted intention. He wasn’t going after Harper. He was just mentally ill iirc.

But those other people aren’t mentally ill? FFS

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

We were talking about recent online vitriol prompting nut jobs to target the PM and Liberals.

I remember that guy storming Parliament but can’t recall any kind of targeted intention. He wasn’t going after Harper. He was just mentally ill iirc.

He was definitely ideologically motivated. And those shootings led to several policy and legislative changes to allow for collection and targeting of homegrown terrorists. Just a different flavour of the domestic terrorist who rammed the gates of Rideau Hall.

I think it's far more likely that last night's troublemaker was mentally ill than ideologically motivated.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Loco101

The big question to ask is where do the conservatives have the best chance of regaining support? I'd say only BC and some parts of Ontario. There is no hope of split votes helping them with the NDP being so low.

Genuinely curious if the Conservatives need the NDP to outperform them to get the lead back. That'd be a weird situation where there's nothing the CPC can do.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Genuinely curious if the Conservatives need the NDP to outperform them to get the lead back. That'd be a weird situation where there's nothing the CPC can do.

Honestly yes, it's mostly out of their hands at this point. Regionals for some of the polling agencies have the CPC around that 40% mark in Ontario. Under most circumstances that'd be more than enough to take a majority of seats, but not with all the NDP vote collapsing into the LPC.

Atlantic Canada is one spot where the CPC would need to directly take vote back from the LPC, but there are not enough seats in the region to change the outcome of the election without the NDP and/or Bloc also regaining a fairly large chunk of support.

[savevp]

Yet another indictment of how unpalatable the Trudeau government had become; the left wing voting block his ministry courted are flooding back in record numbers now that he's left.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Genuinely curious if the Conservatives need the NDP to outperform them to get the lead back. That'd be a weird situation where there's nothing the CPC can do.

I don't think that trend will change in time to help them. NDP are not doing a great job of delivering their message. People are scared; some of PP others of Trump. They are voting strategically.

I live in Victoria, where in most riding it usually a toss up between green or NDP with the NDP usually coming out ahead. This year its different. I know a few people who would always go NDP, they have flipped. A combination of distrust of PP and wanting a strong response to Trump. They are voting strategically and that means Liberal.

The one riding that is concerning is Elizabeth May. The Liberals are doing so well in taking votes away from the Greens that the Conservatives have a slight edge. It would be a sad seeing a Conservative get in with just over 30% of the vote, when the other 70% are Green, NDP and Liberal supporters. But that is the way the system is setup.

Originally Posted by savevp

Yet another indictment of how unpalatable the Trudeau government had become; the left wing voting block his ministry courted are flooding back in record numbers now that he's left.

He had a style that many did not like. But he has also been in that role for nearly 10 years. Canadians get tired of the PM at around the 10 year mark and want him/her out at that point.

Clearly Carney is no Trudeau. Different style, less talk more action, takes economics into account more, and less tolerant of BS.

[Marshsparrow]

Originally Posted by savevp

Yet another indictment of how unpalatable the Trudeau government had become; the left wing voting block his ministry courted are flooding back in record numbers now that he's left.

And your assessment of Pierre - after 2 YEARS of campaigning non-stop and giving us 3 word zingers, the majority of Canadians have realized they can't stand him and will re-elect the Liberals - that has to sting.

Reminder Pierre is the only candidate with a non-compliance agreement with Elections Canada - cheating and fraud oh and refuses to get a security clearance.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by casper

I don't think that trend will change in time to help them. NDP are not doing a great job of delivering their message. People are scared; some of PP others of Trump. They are voting strategically.

I live in Victoria, where in most riding it usually a toss up between green or NDP. This year its different. I know a few people who would always go NDP, they have flipped. A combination of distrust of PP and wanting a strong response to Trump. They are voting strategically and that means Liberal.

The one riding that is concerning is Elizabeth May. The Liberals are doing so well in taking votes away from the Greens that the Conservatives have a slight edge. It would be a sad seeing a Conservative get in with just over 30% of the vote, when the other 70% are Green, NDP and Liberal supporters. But that is the way the system is setup.



He had a style that many did not like. But he has also been in that role for nearly 10 years. Canadians get tired of the PM at around the 10 year mark and want him/her out at that point.

Elizabeth May is past her best before date and really it just a vote thrown away. The NDP and Greens need to merge.

[casper]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Elizabeth May is past her best before date and really it just a vote thrown away. The NDP and Greens need to merge.

The green's policy is so weird I am not certain you can say its closer to the NDP or Liberals.

My impression (and this may be biased to being in one of the few areas where they have done well in the past), is people who support green have a strong commitment to the environment and a great deal of distrust of both corporations and labor movements. They would rather everything they buy come from the farmers market and be grown or made by a small local company.

The best way of advancing their agenda is to hold their nose and vote Liberal.

While Liberals are more development friends they will be more demanding on the environment than the Conservatives.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by casper

The green's policy is so weird I am not certain you can say its closer to the NDP or Liberals.

My impression (and this may be biased to being in one of the few areas where they have done well in the past), is people who support green have a strong commitment to the environment and a great deal of distrust of both corporations and labor movements. They would rather everything they buy come from the farmers market and be grown or made by a small local company.

The best way of advancing their agenda is to hold their nose and vote Liberal.

While Liberals are more development friends they will be more demanding on the environment than the Conservatives.

Yeah there are some people who insist on ideological purity and don't have any interest in strategic voting. Australia lets you rank your choices letting you avoid wasting the vote. This helps independents and smaller parties. With especially independents doing very well.

PPC vote has collapsed. If you are anti-vax and anti immigrant they figure the Conservatives advance more of those goals. Though I'd say Carney will end up with a lower intake of immigration than a Poilievre government would. Easier for a Liberal to hold the line when the clamoring starts for more immigration.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by casper

The green's policy is so weird I am not certain you can say its closer to the NDP or Liberals.

I didn't look through the whole platform. But just looking at defence policy, the parties are both kooky. Just in different ways. They both have the same fixation on diverting spending away from the US, the same focus on multilateralism. Etc. The only real difference is the Greens don't commit to 2% and focus on all kinds of new civil agencies. In practical terms this would be disarmament. The NDP plan is impractical enough that it would achieve the same just by impractical rules.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by travis3000

New Nanos poll drops the LPC lead from 10.5 points to 6 points. Yesterday must have been a big CPC day in tracking. Nik Nanos is calling it a post Liberation Day shift. Time will tell.

Like I said, this race is far from over.

I wonder if it’s less about a post-Liberation Day shift to lower Lib support and instead a reversion after a PRE-Liberation Day shift to higher support, which would have manifested in the trackers last Sunday-Tuesday.

In other words, the Liberals are going back to where they were before last weekend: a 4-6 point lead rather than 8-10. The most recent tracker results are consistent with that, but I guess we’ll see if the narrowing continues through this week, or if things stabilize at this level.

[SignalHillHiker]

Arguing with a cousin who moved to AB... is Carney a billionaire? Have any of ye heard that?

Red is me, orange is her (including me and a random friend quoting her so she's the first two words of our replies). The comment you missed is just her saying "You know Carney's a billionaire right? *Shrug*", and me replying, "I don't, actually. Even Poilievre says he's worth just under $7M and surely that's the richest he could be painted?"

[lio45]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Elizabeth May is past her best before date and really it just a vote thrown away. The NDP and Greens need to merge.

If we are to continue to have a FPTP winner-takes-all system, then I'd go further than that: the NDP, Greens, and PPC need to cease to exist. And ideally the BQ would as well (actually, either after sovereignty or after Louisianization is completed, it will cease to exist. It's the only party that truly has an expiration date and finite life.)

Two centrist big-tent parties, that's the optimal way with a Westminster system. Whenever one messes up you punish them by electing the other for a while and vice versa.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Arguing with a cousin who moved to AB... is Carney a billionaire? Have any of ye heard that?

Red is me, orange is her (including me and a random friend quoting her so she's the first two words of our replies). The comment you missed is just her saying "You know Carney's a billionaire right? *Shrug*", and me replying, "I don't, actually. Even Poilievre says he's worth just under $7M and surely that's the richest he could be painted?"

You're right and she's wrong, technically, but I can see her point as Carney is a "Davos Guy" and he's the billionaires' candidate.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by lio45

Two centrist big-tent parties, that's the optimal way with a Westminster system. Whenever one messes up you punish them by electing the other for a while and vice versa.

That has worked so well in the United States, why not? A two party only system would probably create a peaceful co-existence, and cooperation, without the chance that it could divide people.

We may as well rename the parties "Democratic" and Republican" while we are at it. What can possibly go wrong?

[casper]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

That has worked so well in the United States, why not? A two party only system would probably create a peaceful co-existence, and cooperation, without the chance that it could divide people.

We may as well rename the parties "Democratic" and Republican" while we are at it. What can possibly go wrong?

The fringe parties are extremely valuable in our system.

The PPC plays an very important role. It provides a home for the more extreme right wing element. That avoids them infecting the Conservatives with wild extreme ideas.

The majority of Canadians are closer to the centre. The reason the Liberals and Conservatives generally do well decade after decade.

When we have a minority government the smaller parties can influence some policies. A big part (but clearly not all) of the rejection of JT, are due to NDP leaning ideas that needed to be adopted to retain the support of the house. Some will be reversed, while some of the more practical NDP ideas will live on into the future. Not a bad thing.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Genuinely curious if the Conservatives need the NDP to outperform them to get the lead back. That'd be a weird situation where there's nothing the CPC can do.

There are normally a number of ridings where the Liberal candidate currently has the lead where a surge in NDP support could pull away support from the Liberal candidate and make the Conservative one win as it's only about who gets the most votes.

Liberal-Conservative swing ridings this time are all going Liberal this time. Not only is it because Carney has been well liked but also because so much of the usual NDP support has shifted to the Liberals.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

That has worked so well in the United States, why not? A two party only system would probably create a peaceful co-existence, and cooperation, without the chance that it could divide people.

We may as well rename the parties "Democratic" and Republican" while we are at it. What can possibly go wrong?

Indeed, the Americans are wealthier than us, better GDP per capita, better economic growth, etc.

So yeah, if we can imitate them, great for us. I'd draw the line at renaming the parties tho, the red big tent would be called "LPC" and the blue big tent would be called "CPC" (or PCPC even.)