Canadian Federal Election

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

I joined a major CPC FB group just for fun, and there's just no attempt to make centrist voters seem welcome there. Danielle Smith is being posted a lot, and they are praising her, it's pretty crazy stuff. It's like the CPC has given up on the older, centrist boomer vote, and only want's the ones that think the mainstream media is crooked.

The CPC and its base leaning into this far right populism, and conspiracy based news coverage online that they treat like gospel is likely going to result in the CPC being hoisted by their collective petards.

In fairness, Twitter is even worse. There always seemed to be a lot of far-right media influences spreading misinformation, especially in regards to Alberta. Not sure if it is possible, but I would support a bill regulating disinformation, just so News sites like Rebel News, Western Standard, the Post Millennial, etc would cease to exist.

People that don't fact check, or are easily misled, tend to gravitate to these types of news sites. In Alberta, I know Justin Trudeau was unpopular, as was his father. However, a lot of the venom directed towards him was not organic. The way the far-right media paints progressive politicians, I am really surprised that there have been no attempted assaults or assignation attempts. The venom directed towards some politicians is disgusting.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Interesting.

The sentiment is alright. The practicality is rather difficult.. Not something that can be turned on a dime. Requires a long term strategy. The public debate has been just stupid. Focused on the F-35. But we're getting American made P-8s for maritime patrol. And buying SkyGuardians as our first major drones. The coming naval destroyers are chocked full of American systems, despite being a British designed vessel. The army is the least dependent on American kit. But still uses American spec'd ammunition.

It's also unclear how the public would react to a change in strategy when the costs of changing come out. American kit, despite all the propaganda, is notoriously good value. Consider that the F-35 is cheaper than the French Rafale or pan-European Typhoon, yet a generation ahead. This isn't a minor difference. In unscripted exercises, the F-35 has proven to be an order of magnitude more lethal. That's a big part of why other countries buy American in certain areas (notably aircraft). Unfortunately, nobody else has the scale to improve unit value. This may change going forward, for example with coming 6th gen programs. But there's a lot of ifs to line up. Most notably, Europe has to consolidate and let us in.

As far as we're concerned this can't be done overnight. And it requires explicit political decisions that I have yet to see a politician make. Namely, excluding US systems from projects. For all the rhetoric, I think politicians know doing that outright will create new problems with the US. We need a measured long term strategy that progressively redirects bigger chunks of procurement away from the US where not strictly required for interoperability. And we need the public willing to spend more on a worse deal probably for a decade or more while values from other suppliers catch up.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by travis3000

And Quebec doesn't give a shit. So if its good enough for them, that's all that matters. The man is trying his best. People in Quebec are smart enough to see the big picture.

We haven't had a debate yet. It may all fall apart.

That said, it's refreshing to see that Quebecers are open minded and practical in the face of this threat. Meanwhile, Alberta is becoming the new Quebec I guess....

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Loco101

PP has gone the exact same route that Tim Hudak did twice in Ontario. While it goes over very well with certain types of people who are generally pretty far right and in areas that are heavily conservative, it doesn't go over well with swing voters and those closer to the centre.

I'm not sure about this. The public mood has changed with the ballot question. And it's hard for PP to readjust because he doesn't have the authenticity.

At the end of the day, most people aren't going to see Carney as a traditional scheming politician no matter how much shit the Conservatives throw, because we know he hasn't been a politician before this. On the flip side, it's kinda hard to buy the great unifier argument from the guy trying to imitate MAGA for years.

None of this means, the mood can't shift back suddenly or in 2029, when Trump is out of office we're not all angry at the Liberals again. Honestly, if the Libs win this time, I expect a massive Conservative landslide next. Heck, might not need to wait till 2029. Trump maybe neutered after the midterms.

[Marshsparrow]

Pierre has been campaigning for 2+ years - it wasn't a secret with all his various events, rallies, announcements and 3-word slogans. He built what he has over a long period and now in 36 days we're supposed to believe the message of the past 2 years is not Pierre - we're not stupid.

But I'll give him a 10 for trying... that smile and throwing props (kids) at every opportunity he gets to "soften" his image. The last kid interaction brought me back to when the convoy supporters had their kids at the Ottawa protest... who brings their kids to a political rally (teens sure, but younger than that - seriously)?

[travis3000]

New Nanos poll drops the LPC lead from 10.5 points to 6 points. Yesterday must have been a big CPC day in tracking. Nik Nanos is calling it a post Liberation Day shift. Time will tell.

Like I said, this race is far from over.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

Pierre has been campaigning for 2+ years - it wasn't a secret with all his various events, rallies, announcements and 3-word slogans. He built what he has over a long period and now in 36 days we're supposed to believe the message of the past 2 years is not Pierre - we're not stupid.

It does not help that we are starting to learn that the CPC is doing Putin-style things to reporters (excluding them from flights, not answering questions from certain reporters, shoving and bullying media types, etc) very undemocratic and understandable from a party who chose a leader, who refuses to obtain his security clearance.

Canadians have a choice, when they go to the polls. Do they want a leader who tries to unite us, and will work with other nations to build bridges, or do we want someone who will make us more like our southern neighbours, with division and hate. I guess we will know in 3 weeks.

[Marshsparrow]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

It does not help that we are starting to learn that the CPC is doing Putin-style things to reporters (excluding them from flights, not answering questions from certain reporters, shoving and bullying media types, etc) very undemocratic and understandable from a party who chose a leader, who refuses to obtain his security clearance.

Canadians have a choice, when they go to the polls. Do they want a leader who tries to unite us, and will work with other nations to build bridges, or do we want someone who will make us more like our southern neighbours, with division and hate. I guess we will know in 3 weeks.

Bruce Fanjoy reporting hundreds of his campaign signs stolen... that seems to take some co-ordination.

[savevp]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

that seems to take some co-ordination.

It really doesn't

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by savevp

It really doesn't

One person doesn't steal 300 signs in a few hours. Unless we are back to believing in Santa Claus . Not saying it's from the campaign, but you can bet that a few CPC fanboys were communicating on one of their Telegram channels to make it happen.

[MonctonRad]

Current CBC Poll Tracker

LPC - 44.2%, 203 seats (Liberal super-majority)
CPC - 37.3%, 118 seats
BLQ - 5.3%, 17 seats
NDP - 8.1%, 4 seats
GRN - 2.2%, 1 seat
PPC - 2.0%, 0 seats

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

In fairness, Twitter is even worse. There always seemed to be a lot of far-right media influences spreading misinformation, especially in regards to Alberta. Not sure if it is possible, but I would support a bill regulating disinformation, just so News sites like Rebel News, Western Standard, the Post Millennial, etc would cease to exist.

People that don't fact check, or are easily misled, tend to gravitate to these types of news sites. In Alberta, I know Justin Trudeau was unpopular, as was his father. However, a lot of the venom directed towards him was not organic. The way the far-right media paints progressive politicians, I am really surprised that there have been no attempted assaults or assignation attempts. The venom directed towards some politicians is disgusting.

Remember the guy who rammed the gates of 24 Sussex and had weapons that he intended to use on Trudeau. Or the orc that verbally assaulted and threatened Chrystia Freeland in Grande Prairie:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/calgary/article/p...deputy-prime-minister-chrystia-freeland/

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

Bruce Fanjoy reporting hundreds of his campaign signs stolen... that seems to take some co-ordination.

Online domain manipulation strikes candidate’s campaign


Online mischief has caused a lot of aggravation for the Liberal candidate and his team in Bay of Quinte riding. In a press release issued late Saturday, candidate Chris Malette says someone or a group has purchased several website addresses featuring his name, addresses like “chrismalette.ca” and ‘votechrismalette.ca.”

People clicking on those websites were directed to Conservative candidate Ryan Williams’s official website. Malette says he reached out to Williams and his campaign team and was assured that they had nothing to do with the misdirections.

source: https://www.quintenews.com/2025/04/06/online-domain-manipulation-strikes-candidates-campaign/

-----


Some shady stuff going on in some electoral districts.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Current CBC Poll Tracker

LPC - 44.2%, 203 seats (Liberal super-majority)
CPC - 37.3%, 118 seats
BLQ - 5.3%, 17 seats
NDP - 8.1%, 4 seats
GRN - 2.2%, 1 seat
PPC - 2.0%, 0 seats

Back when he thought he had everything sewn up:


verb the noun!!
verb the noun!!
verb the noun!!

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Online domain manipulation strikes candidate’s campaign


Online mischief has caused a lot of aggravation for the Liberal candidate and his team in Bay of Quinte riding. In a press release issued late Saturday, candidate Chris Malette says someone or a group has purchased several website addresses featuring his name, addresses like “chrismalette.ca” and ‘votechrismalette.ca.”

People clicking on those websites were directed to Conservative candidate Ryan Williams’s official website. Malette says he reached out to Williams and his campaign team and was assured that they had nothing to do with the misdirections.

source: https://www.quintenews.com/2025/04/06/online-domain-manipulation-strikes-candidates-campaign/

-----


Some shady stuff going on in some electoral districts.

“Hello, this is Pierre Poutine calling…”

[casper]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The sentiment is alright. The practicality is rather difficult.. Not something that can be turned on a dime. Requires a long term strategy. The public debate has been just stupid. Focused on the F-35. But we're getting American made P-8s for maritime patrol. And buying SkyGuardians as our first major drones. The coming naval destroyers are chocked full of American systems, despite being a British designed vessel. The army is the least dependent on American kit. But still uses American spec'd ammunition.

It's also unclear how the public would react to a change in strategy when the costs of changing come out. American kit, despite all the propaganda, is notoriously good value. Consider that the F-35 is cheaper than the French Rafale or pan-European Typhoon, yet a generation ahead. This isn't a minor difference. In unscripted exercises, the F-35 has proven to be an order of magnitude more lethal. That's a big part of why other countries buy American in certain areas (notably aircraft). Unfortunately, nobody else has the scale to improve unit value. This may change going forward, for example with coming 6th gen programs. But there's a lot of ifs to line up. Most notably, Europe has to consolidate and let us in.

As far as we're concerned this can't be done overnight. And it requires explicit political decisions that I have yet to see a politician make. Namely, excluding US systems from projects. For all the rhetoric, I think politicians know doing that outright will create new problems with the US. We need a measured long term strategy that progressively redirects bigger chunks of procurement away from the US where not strictly required for interoperability. And we need the public willing to spend more on a worse deal probably for a decade or more while values from other suppliers catch up.

I think the only way this shift works is: (1) on new procurement to show a preference for non-US equipment and (2) review in progress procurement to ensure its still the best option. All while accepting we are going to have US content, just how to minimize the risk.

At a minimum the F-35 review is causing the OEM to rethink their Canadian content. We could always push to see the maintenance work shift to being in Canada or even part of their software team to be based in Canada.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by casper

or even part of their software team to be based in Canada.

The Pentagon would no doubt object. Even if there is no "kill switch" on the F-35, the Pentagon undoubtedly wants tight control of onboard software and all software updates (which are frequently mission specific) for operational dominance.

The only F-35 purchaser with some independence in this regard seems to be Israel.

As for Canada, if Herr Drumpf keeps droning on about his "51st state" nonsense, there is no way the US military would allow the RCAF such operational independence.

This is why I think we should limit F=35 purchases just to the amount necessary for our NORAD commitments. We should look elsewhere for the remainder of our fighter fleet.

[casper]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The Pentagon would no doubt object. Even if there is no "kill switch" on the F-35, the Pentagon undoubtedly wants tight control of onboard software and all software updates (which are frequently mission specific) for operational dominance.

The only F-35 purchaser with some independence in this regard seems to be Israel.

As for Canada, if Herr Drumpf keeps droning on about his "51st state" nonsense, there is no way the US military would allow the RCAF such operational independence.

This is why I think we should limit F=35 purchases just to the amount necessary for our NORAD commitments. We should look elsewhere for the remainder of our fighter fleet.

The fact the RCAF was asked to review the order is forcing Lockheed Martin into crisis mode and seeing what they can do to salvage the order.

This is the time to have the conversation, if it comes down to the US never having trusted Canada and clearly Canada losing trust in the US how is this suppose to work.

We should ask for what we want and expect to settle for something between the two positions.

Limiting the order to our NORAD commitments sounds good as well. Try to get the best deal possible with the new reality of the relationship the US will have with us and the rest of NATO.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by travis3000

New Nanos poll drops the LPC lead from 10.5 points to 6 points. Yesterday must have been a big CPC day in tracking. Nik Nanos is calling it a post Liberation Day shift. Time will tell.

Like I said, this race is far from over.

In that same poll, for preferred PM, Carney has 50.2% and Poilievre has 31%. If you take out the prairie provinces then Carney's lead is much more.

The big question to ask is where do the conservatives have the best chance of regaining support? I'd say only BC and some parts of Ontario. There is no hope of split votes helping them with the NDP being so low.

[Hecate]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Remember the guy who rammed the gates of 24 Sussex and had weapons the he intended to use on Trudeau. Or the orc that verbally assaulted and threatened Chrystia Freeland in Grande Prairie:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/calgary/article/p...deputy-prime-minister-chrystia-freeland/

Why no mention of the crazy Muslim convert, who gunned down a soldier and then stormed parliament hill in 2014? Is that cause the conservatives were in power?