Canadian Federal Election

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

^ This is an excellent read on the general population. Debates will matter very little. For the past 6 weeks, the CPC is becoming more and more unglued. There are now major cracks in the foundation. Ford and Kenney are taking shots at Smith and Manning. It's a complete sideshow.

The debate will not matter. The election is 23 days away, and the Liberal lead is only widening. I fail to see any road that would lead the Conservatives to victory at this point.

Some kind of huge gaffe in the French debate could see the Liberals limited to Montreal again. Even that with the rest of the country polling puts the Liberals solidly ahead. The headline number might then be 38 38 but that only drives more NDP voters to Carney. There will need to be a gaffe in English or some other event.

[travis3000]

Abacus out with their new poll (Mar 31st-April 3rd) and its the exact same as the one from the week before. Tie. The only reputable firm that shows a tie.

[BlackDog204]

Interesting.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Some kind of huge gaffe in the French debate could see the Liberals limited to Montreal again. Even that with the rest of the country polling puts the Liberals solidly ahead. The headline number might then be 38 38 but that only drives more NDP voters to Carney. There will need to be a gaffe in English or some other event.

People are overrating the importance of debates. Anything other than a Biden-style meltdown will mean nothing. Social media has become just as important.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Abacus out with their new poll (Mar 31st-April 3rd) and its the exact same as the one from the week before. Tie. The only reputable firm that shows a tie.

They're barely reputable at this point. Clearly cooking the books. Expect a sudden convergence to the mean right before election day to declare see we are accurate.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

People are overrating the importance of debates. Anything other than a Biden-style meltdown will mean nothing. Social media has become just as important.

Honestly he looks like Biden speaking French. Fumbling and trying to remember his memorized sentences.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Honestly he looks like Biden speaking French. Fumbling and trying to remember his memorized sentences.

And Quebec doesn't give a shit. So if its good enough for them, that's all that matters. The man is trying his best. People in Quebec are smart enough to see the big picture.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Honestly he looks like Biden speaking French. Fumbling and trying to remember his memorized sentences.

Why is it that nearly everyone I have encountered on here and social media says his French is fine, the same knowledge of the French language as Stephen Harper, but Conservative partisans go on, like Carney is going to lose half his seats in Quebec once the debate ends.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Obviously Carney has the momentum and is building upon itself but relatively little of this is at the expense of the Tories. They have gone from roughly 40 to 41% support to 36 to 37% which is only 10% loss in support. Most of the Liberal surge is due to the complete implosion of the NDP and sagging fortunes for the Bloc in Quebec. This shows how Tory support is pretty rock solid while the Liberals far less so. Those recent converts can still be swayed especially by those Red Tories/Blue Liberals. I won't be writing off a Tory minority until after the debates.

Carney looks calm, cool, and collected in Liberal media scrums but debates are anything but and Carney is not quick off his feet. PP, on the other hand, may come across as an attack dog but he can respond effectively at a moments notice which is why he was such an effective Leader of the Opposition. Carney's lackluster French will also cause him trouble in a debate.

This election is far from over and I think it will be decided in the debates. Even getting by without any major gaffs would be a huge win for Carney but I think that is unlikely. He is no debater and when you hear him talk, it really does remind you that this is a man comfortable in a boardroom of bankers but unfortunately for him, a debate is not a boardroom and Canadians aren't bankers.

I said I wasn't going to make any predictions until the last two weeks of the campaign. But it sure does look like that a Conservative majority win is out of the question.

The CPC is really lost at this point and they haven't really produced any video/TV ads for the last week or two. The only one I've seen online was about Jewish Canadians being under attack by the Carney Liberals. It was really weird and just seemed desperate and pandering.

[trueviking]

Why do people think Quebec voters are so simplistic that they would base their vote entirely on how well the leader can speak French? There are major people in his cabinet from Quebec. It’s not like he can’t speak French at all and he is genuinely respectful about the province and language.

[trueviking]

The debates will be interesting because it could go two ways. Carney is a deliberate thinker and a slow talker unaccustomed to the pace of political debate. That might turn people off.

On the flip side Pierre has a tendency to go into attack dog mode which might not play well. It is clear most Canadians are not looking for that. He needs to control his natural aggression and anger.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I said I wasn't going to make any predictions until the last two weeks of the campaign. But it sure does look like that a Conservative majority win is out of the question.

The CPC is really lost at this point and they haven't really produced any video/TV ads for the last week or two. The only one I've seen online was about Jewish Canadians being under attack by the Carney Liberals. It was really weird and just seemed desperate and pandering.

We need a government that digest what is going on and act quickly. The Carney Liberals are demonstrating that.

The Conservatives since JT resigned can't figure out what direction they are going in and just look out to lunch. That is not modelling a "government in waiting".

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by casper

We need a government that digest what is going on and act quickly. The Carney Liberals are demonstrating that.

The Conservatives since JT resigned can't figure out what direction they are going in and just look out to lunch. That is not modelling a "government in waiting".

Yes absolutely. PP has really lacked vision in my opinion for an election campaign. I wonder if he is now thinking of some sort of Hail Mary plan to attract votes that could be risky to the economy and drive up debt. That's about the only thing he can do to even hope to get a bump in support.

Carney is definitely more confident and trying to keep it smooth.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

People are overrating the importance of debates. Anything other than a Biden-style meltdown will mean nothing. Social media has become just as important.

Knock-out debate moments are very rare. Mulroney's "you had a choice" (regarding John Turner making PET's Senate appointments) in 1984, or Layton calling out Ignatieff's attendance record in 2011 are the exceptions.

[Architype]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

People are overrating the importance of debates. Anything other than a Biden-style meltdown will mean nothing. Social media has become just as important.

As long as there is no "we finally beat Medicare" moment, he should be okay.

[Loco101]

It's interesting to see on Canada 338 that the only ridings that the CPC are likely to pick up are ones currently held by NDP MPs. And I think most if not all are in BC.

My riding of Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk is a new riding that is larger in area than the United Kingdom!! The outgoing MP is NDP Charlie Angus.

The three main candidates are Nicole Fortier-Levesque for the NDP, Gaétan Malette for the CPC and Steve Black for the LPC. Canada 338 and many people here predicted that Malette would win for the CPC in a three way race. But now it's looking like LPC Steve Black is most likely to win.

Our local social media trolls who all support the conservatives have been saying for awhile that Malette would win big and that we need an MP who is on the government side. What's really funny now is that those same trolls are still saying the exact same thing. They are calling the polls fake and posting harassing comments for those who see things differently than them. It's that kind of stuff that actually turns people away from the CPC.

[Loco101]

Current Canada 338 projection:

LPC: 196

CPC: 122

BQ: 16

NDP: 8

GPC: 1


https://338canada.com/

[Loco101]

Latest Nanos poll which was completed yesterday:

https://nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/2025-2783-ELXN-FED-2025-04-04-Field-Ended.pdf

LPC: 45.9%

CPC: 34.9%

NDP: 9.2%

BQ: 5.2%

GPC: 2.9%

PPC: 1.4%


---------------------------


The Liberals have a massive lead in the Atlantic Region, Quebec and Ontario. It is a statistical tie in BC between the Conservatives and Liberals. The Conservatives have a massive lead in the prairie provinces.


---------------



Preferred Prime Minister:

Carney: 51.6%

Poilievre: 29.2%

Unsure: 5.8%

Singh: 4.5%

The rest are very low in support.


-------------------------


The LPC is at 45.9% and Carney is most liked for PM by 51.6%.

The CPC is at 34.9% and Poilievre is most liked for PM by 29.2%

The NDP is at 9.2% and Singh is most like for PM by 4.5%.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Current Canada 338 projection:

LPC: 196

CPC: 122

BQ: 16

NDP: 8

GPC: 1


https://338canada.com/

I joined a major CPC FB group just for fun, and there's just no attempt to make centrist voters seem welcome there. Danielle Smith is being posted a lot, and they are praising her, it's pretty crazy stuff. It's like the CPC has given up on the older, centrist boomer vote, and only want's the ones that think the mainstream media is crooked.

The CPC and its base leaning into this far right populism, and conspiracy based news coverage online that they treat like gospel is likely going to result in the CPC being hoisted by their collective petards.

💣📉💥🗳🔴

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

I joined a major CPC FB group just for fun, and there's just no attempt to make centrist voters seem welcome there. Danielle Smith is being posted a lot, and they are praising her, it's pretty crazy stuff. It's like the CPC has given up on the older, centrist boomer vote, and only want's the ones that think the mainstream media is crooked.

The CPC and its base leaning into this far right populism, and conspiracy based news coverage online that they treat like gospel is likely going to result in the CPC being hoisted by their collective petards.

💣📉💥🗳🔴

It's really crazy and scary because they are just like the MAGA people in the states. But in Canada they are hurting their movement and the CPC. PP made huge mistakes by supporting the "freedom" convoy and also Maple MAGA groups. He was more worried about losing support to the PPC and turned off so many people with centrist views.