Canadian Federal Election

[casper]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I'm glad the LPC can and did make this shift. Nothing is stopping the CPC.

I also have some renewed confidence in the Canadian electorate who can appreciate this move and reward it. The level of brainwashing isn't at US levels, yet.

I view it as the Liberals shifting back to their normal place.

JT was a left leaning Liberal and needed to also incorporate some NDP type polices as well to keep them on side. That is how a parliamentary system works after all.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Credit where due. Poilievre is actually too good at his job as Opposition Leader. He beat Trudeau so bad, that Justin had to leave. Won the argument on the Carbon Tax so well, the Liberals had to ditch it. He also eviscerated the NDP so much, that voters are now fleeing, to the Liberals. Poilievre is so good as Leader of the Opposition, it's hard to imagine him doing anything else!

Most accurate and best-said thing I've read on this forum in a long time!!!

I keep saying this too, if you recall older posts of mine: Poilievre vanquished JT too powerfully for his own good. It's like in a boxing ring, you're totally owning your opponent, but ideally you want to keep him standing until the end of the match is near, as if you actually knock him out too early the substitute is a much better fighter and you'll lose.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by lio45

Most accurate and best-said thing I've read on this forum in a long time!!!

I keep saying this too, if you recall older posts of mine: Poilievre vanquished JT too powerfully for his own good. It's like in a boxing ring, you're totally owning your opponent, but ideally you want to keep him standing until the end of the match is near, as if you actually knock him out too early the substitute is a much better fighter and you'll lose.

Just because you're an excellent attack dog doesn't mean you should become leader of the party and Prime Minister in waiting.

Being PM requires an entirely different skill set.

None of the Liberal Rat Pack from the Mulroney era got anywhere near becoming party leader.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Outgroups aren't supposed to tell ingroups they're not a part of what's best for them.

You and Lio have told Anglo Quebeckers what is best for them.

You've also opined about ethnic minority groups, many, many times.

[dleung]

Isn't the Liojack schtick something like "affirmation action for minorities is woke overreach, bad for meritocracy, end of western civilization, etc... but affirmation action for Francophones is good, because cULtUrE"

Originally Posted by Acajack

Outgroups aren't supposed to tell ingroups they're not a part of what's best for them.

Should've said that to Lio when he suggested Democrats gift Georgia to Trump, since he's clearly the outgroup there

[ssiguy]

I kind of feel sorry for PP and the Tories. Clearly they suffered a loss when Trudeau finally stepped down but their message has basically remained on point. What they, nor anyone else, saw coming was Trump and his ridiculous tariffs and open threats against our sovereignty. Some of his policies were questionable but his drop in the polls has little to do with him or the Tories in general.

Conversely, I have absolutely NO empathy for the NDP. Unlike the Tories, their plunging in support and soon to be massacre in the election is completely self-inflicted. By last fall they had a potential to double their seat count and make some real inroads in the GTA & on Montreal Island. The Tories were set to win a super majority but nothing was going to stop that. They, supposedly, ripped up their agreement with the Liberals and Singh stated openly that the Liberals can no longer be trusted. So what does he do?......he keeps backing them anyway even though he had several occasions to vote with the Tories and Bloc to bring down the government. They could have struck while the iron was hot but choose not to all so Singh could get his pension. Now the NDP are paying a very heavy price for their lack of vision and it's a price they justly deserve.

[Marshsparrow]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I kind of feel sorry for PP and the Tories. Clearly they suffered a loss when Trudeau finally stepped down but their message has basically remained on point. What they, nor anyone else, saw coming was Trump and his ridiculous tariffs and open threats against our sovereignty. Some of his policies were questionable but his drop in the polls has little to do with him or the Tories in general.

Conversely, I have absolutely NO empathy for the NDP. Unlike the Tories, their plunging in support and soon to be massacre in the election is completely self-inflicted. By last fall they had a potential to double their seat count and make some real inroads in the GTA & on Montreal Island. The Tories were set to win a super majority but nothing was going to stop that. They, supposedly, ripped up their agreement with the Liberals and Singh stated openly that the Liberals can no longer be trusted. So what does he do?......he keeps backing them anyway even though he had several occasions to vote with the Tories and Bloc to bring down the government. They could have struck while the iron was hot but choose not to all so Singh could get his pension. Now the NDP are paying a very heavy price for their lack of vision and it's a price they justly deserve.

Well the campaign is not over until election day and things can change quickly.

I still long for a PC alternative non-populist / maga republican / convoy controlled CPC... I have zero sympathy for Pierre and Jenni. The narrative of Canada is broken, the name calling and smears on Trudeau and the decision to align with Jones, Musk, Peterson, Shapiro, Trump, etc. - they made those decisions willingly because they're opportunists... I just hope the CPC rids themselves of them.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

At this point, I really wonder which party can fill the void left by NDP to prevent Canada from becoming bipartisan like the states…

Why would we want to fill that void, given we're an indirect democracy / winner-takes-all system? It's the classic case of two cat candidates getting 30% each and the dog gets elected with 40%. Normally you just run the best cat and it wins the election with 60% against the dog's 40%.

It's better if the NDP ceases to exist and both the Tories and the Liberals permanently move slightly to the left as a result. (The Libs because that's what it takes to reliably earn the former NDP voters, the Cons because that's what it takes to remain electable with only two parties.)

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by dleung

Isn't the Liojack schtick something like "affirmation action for minorities is woke overreach, bad for meritocracy, end of western civilization, etc... but affirmation action for Francophones is good, because cULtUrE"



Should've said that to Lio when he suggested Democrats gift Georgia to Trump, since he's clearly the outgroup there

You're mixing up the concepts yet again. Sigh.

We're not talking about affirmative action at all. (I actually support affirmative action, which Canadians are supposed to call employment (and other forms of) equity, BTW.)

[LuluBobo]

I suspect the Tories will fracture again in the likely event they lose.

We've only elected 4 Tory PMs since WWI. Only 2 since the 60s.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by LuluBobo

I suspect the Tories will fracture again in the likely event they lose.

We've only elected 4 Tory PMs since WWI. Only 2 since the 60s.

To elaborate on what others have pointed out (Truenorth and me, at least) about Poilievre having been *too effective* against JT, the Tories get elected only when the NGP gives them a window of opportunity.

JT's toxicity was that window. But the LPC has fixed itself and closed the window before Poilievre could get in. Kinda like if a younger Jean Chretien got elected in 1984 and we just completely skipped Mulroney as a result.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

That might be the reason but it still results in a decimation. But that doesn't mean they can't come back. In 1993 they were down to 9 MPs though maybe that qualified for official party status back then.

NDP and the old PC Party lost their official opposition titles. I believe they needed to have 12 MP's in the HoC to have the status. Both bounced back in 1997 though.

[travis3000]

I still think CPC has a shot in this election. I've been going over the data and the GTA seems competitive. Mainstreet and Ipsos both have a tie in the 905. Other firms are showing a larger LPC lead in the GTA, but it goes to show this isn't case closed yet.

I've done a few model runs where the CPC has a shot at minority status with 155-165 seats. 10 seats in Atlantic Canada, 15 seats in Quebec, 60 seats in Ontario, 56 seats in the Prairies, and 22 seats in BC. Voila, you have a strong CPC minority at 160+ seats. A small shift in the polls could make this a reality.

I still think the LPC have the upper hand, but PP is doing better today with his anti Trump rhetoric, and Carney is great when his Prime Minister hat is on, but i'll be honest he's a pretty boring/awkward campaigner who seems quite uncomfortable with the media. We know PP hates the media since he banned them off his plane and only takes 5 pre screened questions. So he's not better by any means.

But my point here is that I truly believe this race is not a foregone conclusion. It would not surprise me if the CPC pull off a steal.

[Marshsparrow]

Originally Posted by lio45

To elaborate on what others have pointed out (Truenorth and me, at least) about Poilievre having been *too effective* against JT, the Tories get elected only when the NGP gives them a window of opportunity.

JT's toxicity was that window. But the LPC has fixed itself and closed the window before Poilievre could get in. Kinda like if a younger Jean Chretien got elected in 1984 and we just completely skipped Mulroney as a result.

JT missed his exit strategy - he should have left at the end of COVID... I think that would have served him and the party well.

Pierre's remarks to the Bay St crowd not going over well - again this would have been his opportunity to soften, expand the tent, make the argument to soft Liberal supporters - but instead he doubles down on slogans, same talking points and sounds like Trump.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by lio45

It's better if the NDP ceases to exist and both the Tories and the Liberals permanently move slightly to the left as a result. (The Libs because that's what it takes to reliably earn the former NDP voters, the Cons because that's what it takes to remain electable with only two parties.)

Where do you come up with this? lol.

First off, it is NOT healthy for democracy to have only two parties. Have you missed what has happened in the USA for the past 30 years? Partisan politics are so bad, that one side votes against the other regardless if the motion is good or bad.

Most European countries have healthier democracies than America now, and they have a slew of parties. The idea that the CPC and Liberals will gravitate to the left, if the NDP ceased to exist, is probably untrue. In fact, it may actually be more likely that the Canadian political system will gravitate to the right, making it more inline with the American system.

However, I suspect the NDP will comeback next election. Jack Layton lead the NDP to its highest seat count ever, and official opposition in 2011, just 18 years after the NDP were decimated in 1993.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by travis3000

I still think the LPC have the upper hand, but PP is doing better today with his anti Trump rhetoric, and Carney is great when his Prime Minister hat is on, but i'll be honest he's a pretty boring/awkward campaigner who seems quite uncomfortable with the media. We know PP hates the media since he banned them off his plane and only takes 5 pre screened questions. So he's not better by any means.

For one thing, Poilievre does not really come across as sincere when he talks about Trump. It's almost like he is forced to do so. Aside from that, his campaign manager, and the CPC inner circle are composed of mainly Trump supporters.

I'm not sure what on Earth you are talking about, referring to Carney as boring/awkward. Carney has actually really impressed me, and is far more respectful, calm, and willing to address the media than Poilievre is. Unless you consider regurgitating one-liners and catch-phases a "winning strategy."

[someone123]

Originally Posted by lio45

Why would we want to fill that void, given we're an indirect democracy / winner-takes-all system? It's the classic case of two cat candidates getting 30% each and the dog gets elected with 40%. Normally you just run the best cat and it wins the election with 60% against the dog's 40%.

But this is only true at the riding level. You can get a small national percentage of the vote in Canada, win a few seats due to local support, and end up with some influence. The NDP did have some influence in parliament recently.

I don't mind the third party aspect of the NDP (or the Greens) but in the JT era the Liberals have adopted many of the policies that those other parties might have used as differentiators in the past. For example, if you look at environmentalism and climate change concern today the NDP and Greens are not huge outliers (historically I guess the NDP may have looked at it differently due to labour concerns but they seem to have dropped that; in some alternate universe with lots of unionized rig workers maybe there would be an anti-carbon-tax NDP).

I'd like to see a more socially progressive party that is more conservative with government finances, is focused on cost of living (being able to say out loud that houses should cost less would be nice), etc. Maybe the Carney Liberals will be more like that in some ways. It is too bad that populist right-wing media has semi-captured and rotted the brains of the portions of the working class. This is the group that should be pushing for basic public services but is focused on bread and butter issues like food prices and rent and doesn't love the civil service being bloated for no reason.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by travis3000

I still think CPC has a shot in this election. I've been going over the data and the GTA seems competitive. Mainstreet and Ipsos both have a tie in the 905. Other firms are showing a larger LPC lead in the GTA, but it goes to show this isn't case closed yet.

I still think the LPC have the upper hand, but PP is doing better today with his anti Trump rhetoric, and Carney is great when his Prime Minister hat is on, but i'll be honest he's a pretty boring/awkward campaigner who seems quite uncomfortable with the media. We know PP hates the media since he banned them off his plane and only takes 5 pre screened questions. So he's not better by any means.

But my point here is that I truly believe this race is not a foregone conclusion. It would not surprise me if the CPC pull off a steal.

I completely agree.

The Tories have really only dipped about 3 to 4% since the Liberal surge. The Liberals have gained due to them taking away NDP support, not Tory. This exemplifies how Tory support is rock solid while the Liberals far less so. This new support is from shifts from one party to the other but they could easily change their minds before the election.

I also agree that Carney is not a good communicator. When he speaks he does so with little fortitude looking like he is still talking to a bunch of sedate bankers. He is no orator. PP, on the other hand speaks clearly and with conviction. PP is also very quick on his feet which is why he was such a good Opposition Leader. Conversely, Carney when asked questions by the media, looks uncomfortable, unsure, and even somewhat annoyed when pressed.

Many of those key swing voters don't make up their minds until after the debates and due to the reasons above, PP has the personality and skills to win them back while making Carney look stale and uncertain. The French debate will be even worse.

As it stands right now, the Liberals do have the lead but polls won't really foresee the outcome until after the debates. Anyone who thinks this election is over and the Liberals are bound for a majority are getting WAY ahead of themselves. The Tories are still very much in the running for a majority gov't.

[Taeolas]

Carney's big advantage is that he's a doer, and as the acting PM, he's in a position to do things.

These "Campaign pauses" he's taking to address the latest insanity from south of the border is the best thing he can do. Talking things out isn't really his strong suit it seems, but when he does have clear plans (or can set those plans in motion) he seems to do well.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

For one thing, Poilievre does not really come across as sincere when he talks about Trump.

Sincerity and seriousness about any topic are hard for PP, due to his communication style and the reputation he has created. I don't know if it reflects him personally, but it's who he is publicly.