AUSTIN | Project Updates Thread Part II

[drummer]

I actually love that the suburbs are getting more to do. I live in Georgetown and the square and surrounding areas are way better than they used to be. I still enjoy downtown Austin, of course, but if I can enjoy quality music, meals, entertainment, beer, etc., literally five minutes from my house, I'm not complaining. On top of that, Georgetown has some awesome parks and trails.

[Urbannizer]

Originally Posted by Urbannizer

Central Health moves forward with new clinic, HQ at Hancock Center in north central Austin

[gillynova]

Kind of sad we won't be seeing any new cranes in the downtown core for awhile after Waterline

[enragedcamel]

Yeah, Austin downtown development is done for a good while I think. All economic indicators are showing that we're about to enter a recession.

[ILUVSAT]

Originally Posted by enragedcamel

Yeah, Austin downtown development is done for a good while I think. All economic indicators are showing that we're about to enter a recession.

"All economic indicators"? To what specific indicators are you referring?

As predicting a recession is not quite a science - I have found only two of five key indicators showing a moderate or higher risk factor of a recession in the coming 12 months.

In fact, almost everything I have read - from academic and Wall Street economists surveys, to the Dallas and NY Fed reports, to JP Morgan (and other financial institutions) - all seem to indicate an overall "low" chance of a recession in 2025.

I'm not trying to pick a battle here. I'm just inquiring as to how you can support that bold claim.

Yes, a recession could slow the progress of some projects. However, I believe it has more to do with the availability of cost-effective capital leading to greatest margin possible. Tower projects take years. Developers are looking at financial situations years out - not necessarily in the near-term. Interest rates hurt. And, there is wide speculation that we may see cuts in the second half of 2025.

New cranes will return to the Austin skyline. And, sooner than one may think.

[ATX2030]

Originally Posted by Urbannizer

Demo underway.

Via LinkedIn:

Site is active today with prep underway.

[enragedcamel]

Originally Posted by ILUVSAT

"All economic indicators"? To what specific indicators are you referring?

As predicting a recession is not quite a science - I have found only two of five key indicators showing a moderate or higher risk factor of a recession in the coming 12 months.

In fact, almost everything I have read - from academic and Wall Street economists surveys, to the Dallas and NY Fed reports, to JP Morgan (and other financial institutions) - all seem to indicate an overall "low" chance of a recession in 2025.

I'm not trying to pick a battle here. I'm just inquiring as to how you can support that bold claim.

Yes, a recession could slow the progress of some projects. However, I believe it has more to do with the availability of cost-effective capital leading to greatest margin possible. Tower projects take years. Developers are looking at financial situations years out - not necessarily in the near-term. Interest rates hurt. And, there is wide speculation that we may see cuts in the second half of 2025.

New cranes will return to the Austin skyline. And, sooner than one may think.

https://bsky.app/profile/jrothst.bsk.../3liin7up3ck2z

It seems almost unavoidable at this point that we are headed for a deep, deep recession. Just based on 200K+ federal firings & pullback of contracts, the March employment report (to be released April 4) seems certain to show bigger job losses than any month ever outside of a few in 2008-9 and 2020.

Add on to that enormous private market uncertainty - how could you hire in these conditions? - and this is going to be very, very bad.

...

This will show up in the March report, to be released on April 4. Why not in the February report, coming out March 7? Because that asks for employment in the pay period including Feb. 12, and the firings were nearly all too late for that.

https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/...ecession-level

Consumers Sound Alarm on Trump Economy as Expectations Reach Recession Level

The sharp drop in consumers’ expectations about the economy brings one of the Conference Board’s metrics below the recession level threshold.

---

A sharp drop in consumer confidence in February has brought Americans’ expectations about the future course of the U.S. economy to a level that often signals a recession on the horizon.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell by seven points to 98.3. The present situation index – a measure of current business and labor market conditions – fell 3.4 points to 136.5, but it was the expectations index that reflects consumers’ outlook of future economic conditions that tumbled 9.3 points to 72.9. That brings it below the 80 threshold that usually serves as a warning of a recession ahead.

“In February, consumer confidence registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at the business organization. “This is the third consecutive month on month decline, bringing the Index to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022.”

“Views of current labor market conditions weakened,” Guichard added. “Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income. Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a 10-month high.”

Trump has also been saying that he wants to reduce demand, because he's obsessed with the 10-year bond yield rate and wants to bring it down. You know what happens when aggregate demand decreases? Yeah.

[ILUVSAT]

Originally Posted by enragedcamel

https://bsky.app/profile/jrothst.bsk.../3liin7up3ck2z



https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/...ecession-level



Trump has also been saying that he wants to reduce demand, because he's obsessed with the 10-year bond yield rate and wants to bring it down. You know what happens when aggregate demand decreases? Yeah.

Thanks for those links. Interesting. Still, it is an inexact science and not all indicators point to a recession. It's kind of funny, for every doom-and-gloom article, there is one bright and shinny one.

Regarding the "obsession" with the 10-Year treasury - It is considered a crucial benchmark in the financial market because it acts as a reference point for long-term interest rates. It also significantly impacts mortgage rates, corporate bond pricing, and other investments. Thus, again, making it a key indicator of the overall economic climate and investor sentiment due to its perceived safety as a U.S. government debt instrument. Essentially, when the 10-year Treasury yield moves, it often influences the cost of borrowing across various sectors of the economy.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury is widely used as a baseline for pricing other fixed income investments, including corporate bonds and mortgages. And, movements in the 10-year Treasury yield can signal investor sentiment regarding future economic growth and inflation expectations.

During times of market uncertainty, investors often flock to the 10-year Treasury due to its perceived safety as a U.S. government debt.

Also, when the 10-year Treasury yield fluctuates, mortgage rates tend to move in the same direction, impacting the cost of homeownership.

So, there is a good reason to watch it closely.



Let's not bog this threat down with an off-topic discussion. I'm more than happy to take it elsewhere.

[Urbannizer]

Originally Posted by loonytoony

Talked with them recently. March is the plan. They just closed on the land and construction funding is in place.

The Belvedere

[davidtexan]

Originally Posted by Urbannizer

The Belvedere

Those are some expensive luxury condos for a low-rise building on the edge of downtown that is *check notes* situated directly between a freight rail train track and highway on-ramp

[clubtokyo]

they do seem pricy AF!

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by davidtexan

Those are some expensive luxury condos for a low-rise building on the edge of downtown that is *check notes* situated directly between a freight rail train track and highway on-ramp

That they can command this price at all speaks to the highly constrained supply that plagues Austin.

[ILUVSAT]

Waldorf Astoria's first Texas property is being developed in the Hill Country west of Austin (in Fredericksburg). Property set to open in 2027.

https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/n...ia-austin.html

https://thepointsguy.com/news/waldor...y-wine-region/

[WestAustinite]

Originally Posted by davidtexan

Those are some expensive luxury condos for a low-rise building on the edge of downtown that is *check notes* situated directly between a freight rail train track and highway on-ramp

I live a 1/3 mile away from this development and I can't wait to see how many people sign up to buy a $1MM condo right on the train tracks...literally. More than 30 freight trains per day pass through and they are not shy about using their horn at all hours. The addition of crossing gates does not deter them from doing so. Some of those buyers will be in for a rude surprise, even if they live on the front side facing the park.

[ILUVSAT]

Originally Posted by davidtexan

Those are some expensive luxury condos for a low-rise building on the edge of downtown that is *check notes* situated directly between a freight rail train track and highway on-ramp

If I read it correctly, prices range from $800k to $3 million. That's not too exorbitant for CBD (regardless of exact location). Plus, just to pay the construction loan back (not including any additional capital and equity), these would have to sell for an average of ~$978k each.

[Urbannizer]

Originally Posted by ILUVSAT

If I read it correctly, prices range from $800k to $3 million. That's not too exorbitant for CBD (regardless of exact location). Plus, just to pay the construction loan back (not including any additional capital and equity), these would have to sell for an average of ~$978k each.

Exact location must be considered here because it’s not CBD (Clarksville).
You can avoid the train noise and buy a new condo Downtown w/ a view for at least $200k less.

[davidtexan]

Originally Posted by WestAustinite

I live a 1/3 mile away from this development and I can't wait to see how many people sign up to buy a $1MM condo right on the train tracks...literally. More than 30 freight trains per day pass through and they are not shy about using their horn at all hours. The addition of crossing gates does not deter them from doing so. Some of those buyers will be in for a rude surprise, even if they live on the front side facing the park.

I just moved out from Elle West Ave, right at the heart of the infamous Seaholm Squeal, after living there for four years. The train is LOUD but my unit was well soundproofed and it didn't really bother me. However these trains can be miles long and take 20+ minutes to pass. As far as I'm aware the only vehicular access to the property is across the train tracks. Imagine trying to leave for work in the morning and getting stuck waiting for a lengthy slow cargo train.

Originally Posted by Urbannizer

Exact location must be considered here because it’s not CBD (Clarksville).
You can avoid the train noise and buy a new condo Downtown w/ a view for at least $200k less.

Exactly my point. I'm not a real estate expert, I'm sure the developers here are very smart people, but personally I'd go for an older condo like Spring or Seaholm Residences down the street and be a lot happier.

[gillynova]

Old 6th:





West 6th:
The Ranch looks like it’s closing

[lonewolf]

https://www.documentcloud.org/docume...l-report-4125/

page 26 for the colorado river eco-park vision plan

• 25 miles of new walking trials
• 18 miles of new bike trails
• A waterfront and a Tesla expo and sports complex with soccer, baseball, basketball and tennis facilities
• Riverfront boardwalk, fishing areas, a playground and an orchard
• 3.78 miles of riverfront, with direct access from Giga Texas
• 290 acres of waterfront green space
• 8 wildlife corridors
• 3,000 tress planted per year

feel free to not share your personal opinions about elon!

[gillynova]

That's pretty dope and I'm glad they're investing money into the environment here