AUSTIN | Project Updates Thread Part II

[enragedcamel]

Originally Posted by ILUVSAT

"All economic indicators"? To what specific indicators are you referring?

As predicting a recession is not quite a science - I have found only two of five key indicators showing a moderate or higher risk factor of a recession in the coming 12 months.

In fact, almost everything I have read - from academic and Wall Street economists surveys, to the Dallas and NY Fed reports, to JP Morgan (and other financial institutions) - all seem to indicate an overall "low" chance of a recession in 2025.

I'm not trying to pick a battle here. I'm just inquiring as to how you can support that bold claim.

Yes, a recession could slow the progress of some projects. However, I believe it has more to do with the availability of cost-effective capital leading to greatest margin possible. Tower projects take years. Developers are looking at financial situations years out - not necessarily in the near-term. Interest rates hurt. And, there is wide speculation that we may see cuts in the second half of 2025.

New cranes will return to the Austin skyline. And, sooner than one may think.

https://bsky.app/profile/jrothst.bsk.../3liin7up3ck2z

It seems almost unavoidable at this point that we are headed for a deep, deep recession. Just based on 200K+ federal firings & pullback of contracts, the March employment report (to be released April 4) seems certain to show bigger job losses than any month ever outside of a few in 2008-9 and 2020.

Add on to that enormous private market uncertainty - how could you hire in these conditions? - and this is going to be very, very bad.

...

This will show up in the March report, to be released on April 4. Why not in the February report, coming out March 7? Because that asks for employment in the pay period including Feb. 12, and the firings were nearly all too late for that.

https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/...ecession-level

Consumers Sound Alarm on Trump Economy as Expectations Reach Recession Level

The sharp drop in consumers’ expectations about the economy brings one of the Conference Board’s metrics below the recession level threshold.

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A sharp drop in consumer confidence in February has brought Americans’ expectations about the future course of the U.S. economy to a level that often signals a recession on the horizon.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell by seven points to 98.3. The present situation index – a measure of current business and labor market conditions – fell 3.4 points to 136.5, but it was the expectations index that reflects consumers’ outlook of future economic conditions that tumbled 9.3 points to 72.9. That brings it below the 80 threshold that usually serves as a warning of a recession ahead.

“In February, consumer confidence registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at the business organization. “This is the third consecutive month on month decline, bringing the Index to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022.”

“Views of current labor market conditions weakened,” Guichard added. “Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income. Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a 10-month high.”

Trump has also been saying that he wants to reduce demand, because he's obsessed with the 10-year bond yield rate and wants to bring it down. You know what happens when aggregate demand decreases? Yeah.