Canadian Federal Election

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by le calmar

You forgot harls



I guess I'm not quite in the Québécois forumers club because I moved to Ontario 10 years ago and lio didn't mention me, so that probably makes me slightly more impartial.

But yeah, I think lio is right about the fact the PQ has good chances to win the next election and a new referendum is a distinct possibility. It's useless to predict what the results of said referendum will be at this point, but let's just be realistic.

The PLQ will gain a bit of momentum when they get a new leader but it's probably not going to be enough to make a huge difference. The CAQ is pretty much a walking corpse right now and Legault is deeply unpopular. QS has become a borderline marginal party and I don't see things changing, even with a new co-leader.

And this is just the reality of political dynamics in Quebec.

Sometimes the puck ends up in the net even if it was not shot directly at it.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Having Kinew as prime minister in the long term will be very symbolic for Canada.

He does check off almost every box doesn't he?

Indigenous
Not from the Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal triangle
Trilingual including the two official languages
Charismatic
Smart
Handsome
Bad-boy-made-good story

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Having Kinew as prime minister in the long term will be very symbolic for Canada.

It would be symbolic.

I am by no means an SJW type, but, sometimes symbolism is very important.

If Kinew seeks to have an important national destiny, he should eventually run federally for the LPC.

[Taeolas]

Sounds like he would be a great fit. If he does plan on a Federal run, I would hope he holds off a bit. I'm expecting Carney to be a One and Done PM, so the LPC should expect to be in the weeds in 4 years. So if he runs out his term in Manitoba, he would probably be ready by then to step in and take over the LPC (or Fed NDP) and be ready for a mid-30's election run then with reinvigorated parties.

[Marshsparrow]

This is the issue for NDP provincial leaders... why would you want to be a 3rd or 4th party leader when you can be premier.

[LuluBobo]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

This is the issue for NDP provincial leaders... why would you want to be a 3rd or 4th party leader when you can be premier.

This is the issue Tommy Douglas dealt with. He was the greatest premier in Saskatchewan history. Beloved across the political spectrum. Reigned for 15 years.

In federal politics he was a minor party leader that was outside cabinet or the OO.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Acajack

He does check off almost every box doesn't he?

Indigenous
Not from the Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal triangle
Trilingual including the two official languages
Charismatic
Smart
Handsome
Bad-boy-made-good story

Yeah box checking has worked out great for us so far.

That said if think Trudeau was too centrist and you want a "truly progressive" government he seems like the best and maybe only hope.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

It would be symbolic.

I am by no means an SJW type, but, sometimes symbolism is very important.

If Kinew seeks to have an important national destiny, he should eventually run federally for the LPC.

Unless the federal NDP changes drastically, he'd be wasted on their bench. He's cabinet material at minimum. If not a PM candidate.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Unless the federal NDP changes drastically, he'd be wasted on their bench. He's cabinet material at minimum. If not a PM candidate.

He could be the key to them finally taking power after all these years. Though he'd need a better team behind him than anything the NDP has been able to put together in living memory. Which is to say, never.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Unless the federal NDP changes drastically, he'd be wasted on their bench. He's cabinet material at minimum. If not a PM candidate.

I don't know a Conservative government with a bit of a NDP recovery and a centre right Carney opposition could open up some room on the left. A Carney early exit and a 2029 election could be open for the NDP. Now a Liberal government and NDP wipeout (seems more likely at this point) probably ends Singh and the NDP For some time.

[lirette]

Originally Posted by LuluBobo

There's a bit of an anointed feeling to Carney. In a normal election, it wouldn't bode well. A few of the gaffes come from an unfamiliarity with being in the spotlight.

If he adapts well, he might win again. If not, he will likely lose the next election. With it looking like PP losing his commanding lead, I suspect the Tories oust him. Singh is certainly gone.

Carney after ~14 years of Liberal rule could face an uphill battle against a fresh centrist Tory and fresh NDP.

I think the CPC will fracture if they lose this election. I can't really think of an ideal centrist candidate in their party waiting in the wings unless they went back to O'Toole, but the populist wing of the party will just want to double down and be more angry after waiting 10 years and being up so high in the polls and so close to defeating Trudeau. They did basically defeat Trudeau but in potentially the worst way possible.

They wont handle a loss well and I cant see them staying united.

[Taeolas]

So, I expect Carney may get another boost from the Baboon In Chief down south.

I'm hearing he's preparing to announce some Auto Import Tariffs around 4PM Eastern.

I'm thinking that all that American liquor that was pulled off the shelves might be going straight to the CPC Campaign organizers. Between what the Felon announces and what Smith keeps doing, they're putting out more fires on their side (some of which they can't even hope to contain) than they can target what the other parties are doing.

[theman23]

I had no idea that Kinew had that criminal history. That goes far beyond just being a "bad boy". Not sure if that's the type of guy we need leading the country, even if he was granted a pardon.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Acajack

He could be the key to them finally taking power after all these years. Though he'd need a better team behind him than anything the NDP has been able to put together in living memory. Which is to say, never.

I remember all the strange people who got elected with the Orange Wave. That's what the NDP faces. It's a party for people who want to be ideological purists and not make the compromises that come with governing. For a guy who was actually Premier, that can't sound very appealing. Their base and party apparatus would have to change substantially. Are they up for that? I am not sure.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by theman23

I had no idea that Kinew had that criminal history. That goes far beyond just being a "bad boy". Not sure if that's the type of guy we need leading the country, even if he was granted a pardon.

He's the Premier of a province right now. If he's good enough for them, I think it's alright for the rest of us.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

He's the Premier of a province right now. If he's good enough for them, I think it's alright for the rest of us.

Disagree with that. Manitobans can decide for themselves but that has no bearing on what I think or have to think.

And I say that as someone who has a generally favourable view of Kinew.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

He's the Premier of a province right now. If he's good enough for them, I think it's alright for the rest of us.

No, that's not true for me. I'm honestly shocked that Manitobans would vote for a man with that history. Beating up a taxi cab driver in what appears to be a race motivated attack goes beyond the pale.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I was trying to figure out your endgame and hadn't thought of this but makes a lot of sense. She is a great communicator with a good TV face. The Conservative grift game can easily put you into the work 20 hours a week make a few million a year camp.

It's sad. I mean we have grifters in Canada like Keean Bexte and Mark Slapinski, both horrible people who arguably don't even believe in what they are saying, but they get paid to spew bullshit. Ditto with Ruby Dhalla, who was obviously a plant in the Liberal leadership race, was paid off by India to be divisive.

Tucker Carlson was caught off camera saying he absolutely despises Donald Trump, and hates dealing with him. It's obvious Tucker is play the role akin to WWE wrestling villain, and gets paid well for it. He has testified in court that he is more of an entertainer, and should not be taken seriously.

If one is shameless, and willing to promote propaganda that do against your personal ethics, there is certainly money to be made.

[LuluBobo]

I hate that all the polling firms combine MB/SK. It makes it very hard to get a read on anything here.

Winnipeg usually sends 3+ Liberals/NDP. Sask hasn't sent a Liberal outside one Regina riding in decades.

With how strong the rural areas goes Tory (70+%) it makes it hard to gauge how well the Liberals/NDP are actually doing in Regina and Saskatoon.

[HomeInMyShoes]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Disagree with that. Manitobans can decide for themselves but that has no bearing on what I think or have to think.

And I say that as someone who has a generally favourable view of Kinew.

It seems less terrible than Saskatchewan's premier. Mr. thrice DUI, including an accident that killed someone.

I've never voted for him or his party because he doesn't seem like someone that learns from their mistakes.