Canadian Federal Election

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Your perspective (where everything is about language). I don't recall a single discussion around that interview. What I do recall was a Conservative campaign that made Dion's signature policy ("The Green Shift") seem like an absolute threat to jobs and quality of life. And indeed, I do think a lot of the current Conservative "Axe the tax" rhetoric was very much based on their successful campaign against Dion's Green Shift.

OK, "helped sink" then.

TIL "communication" may not be that important in politics after all

[missing_middle]

In some ways Brookfield is peak Canadian economics. Boring, safe, exploitative rent-seeking off regulated scarcity:





Investment mentality in the US is like: Venture Capital invests in nuclear rocket startup.

In Canada it's like: ONTARIO TEACHERS PENSIONS FUND NOW OWNS A BRIDGE. Wonderful 80yr old asset will generate a boring stale stream of income from tolls. (Also we'll be sure no new bridges will go up nearby)

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by missing_middle

In some ways Brookfield is peak Canadian economics. Boring, safe, exploitative rent-seeking off regulated scarcity:

Investment mentality in the US is like: Venture Capital invests in nuclear rocket startup.

In Canada it's like: ONTARIO TEACHERS PENSIONS FUND NOW OWNS A BRIDGE. Wonderful 80yr old asset will generate a boring stale stream of income from tolls. (Also we'll be sure no new bridges will go up nearby)

Brookfield is like Blackstone, and to a lesser extent Carlyle and KKR. They invest in a whole universe of alternative assets, with different funds targeting different risk and return profiles. I wouldn't necessarily equate them to a boring pension fund like OTPP, though Brookfield offers plenty of products for pensions.

Pinegrove Capital is the VC arm of Brookfield ... I think they used to also have a VC division called Brookfield Growth?

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

In fairness, there was a Concordia Massacre 3 years later.

True though 99% of people in Quebec (and probably in Canada) when they think of massacres in Canada will think of Polytechnique due to the misogynistic angle of the event. Not Concordia. He didn't catch himself, did he? The apology came after the fact once someone pointed out the mistake to him.

His candidate's organization and claim to fame is literally called "Polytechnique se souvient".

That said, he also messed up her name (Pronovost for Provost) which to me isn't a big deal. That happens to people all the time. It probably wouldn't have made the news if he hadn't also mixed up the two massacres.

Taken individually these are not big deals but we're only a few days in so he does need to tighten things up a bit. I am sure he is being told this by his team.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Acajack

This interview, where he appeared to not understand certain questions and spoke incomprehensibly, sunk Stéphane Dion as a credible cross-Canada politician:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3X_BUUZkZ8

Yes, Steve Murphy (AKA the King Slayer). The Liberals never trusted him again.

[missing_middle]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Brookfield is like Blackstone, and to a lesser extent Carlyle and KKR. They invest in a whole universe of alternative assets, with different funds targeting different risk and return profiles. I wouldn't necessarily equate them to a boring pension fund, though Brookfield offers plenty of products for pensions.

I was using the pension fund just as an example of Canadians general investment temperament.

We love monetizing assets more than anything. More than producing goods.

In China it's sorta like "how do we turn the ground into things." In Canada it's more like "how do I financially extract from this existing thing or process"

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Yes, but his parlay-voo is on the same level as Mark Carney's, or maybe worse.

But maybe that don't matter so much anymore!

It matters - quite a bit.

This however is an extraordinary election, and perhaps exceptions will be allowed.

I also have little doubt that Carney will try to improve his French over time.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

It matters - quite a bit.

This however is an extraordinary election, and perhaps exceptions will be allowed.

I also have little doubt that Carney will try to improve his French over time.

Definition of "time" = 33 days?

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by missing_middle

I was using the pension fund just as an example of Canadians general investment temperament.

We love monetizing assets more than anything. More than producing goods.

In China it's sorta like "how do we turn the ground into things." In Canada it's more like "how do I financially extract from this existing thing or process"

Agreed - that's probably why we're seeing the Carney bump at the moment, because he pretty much embodies the pension fund and rent-seeking financialization mentality that permeates Canada.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Definition of "time" = 33 days?

Of course not. But, assuming he stays PM following the election he has at least a couple of years to improve his fluency.

He at least appears to have some core competency he can build upon. It's not as if he is starting from ground zero learning a new language.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Of course not. But, assuming he stays PM following the election he has at least a couple of years to improve his fluency.

He at least appears to have some core competency he can build upon. It's not as if he is starting from ground zero learning a new language.

I would hope so, as at least IMO should never be the case for the incumbent Prime Minister of Canada, or a serious candidate for that job, in the 21st century.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Definition of "time" = 33 days?

Yeah his French has never been more important than now which he's known was a possibility for at least two years. He didn't bother then so doubt he will much going forward.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Yeah his French has never been more important than now which he's known was a possibility for at least two years. He didn't bother then so doubt he will much going forward.

The first mentions online of Mark Carney perhaps entering federal politics are from over 10 years ago.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I'm looking at what the polls have been showing. Any party leading with only 30% isn't exactly doing well. The PQ is definitely an alternative and a fairly left-wing one which differs from the CAQ so there's definitely that.

I'm not going to make a prediction at this point because of what we're seeing at the federal level where an incumbent party who almost everyone said was finished is leading again.

You quoted a single poll to support your case. On Qc125, even with the Carney bump (which will deflate and dissipate since it's built on soft support) PQ is still projected to have a 50/50 chance of winning a majority, and I wouldn't be surprised if that's the effective floor.

Lio's right, you're out of touch with Quebec. Even if I'm partial to the CAQ getting re-elected since the PLQ is a niche Angryphone cult at this point, Lio's assessment is on the money.

PPSP is also a formidable politican, so I would be shocked if he doesn't move the needle on Oui/Non if he starts actively campaigning for sovereignty.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by missing_middle

Investment mentality in the US is like: Venture Capital invests in nuclear rocket startup.

In Canada it's like: ONTARIO TEACHERS PENSIONS FUND NOW OWNS A BRIDGE. Wonderful 80yr old asset will generate a boring stale stream of income from tolls. (Also we'll be sure no new bridges will go up nearby)

I can tell you that when you get used to the latter, you’re not going to want to go back to the former.

I’m realizing I’ve likely been irreversibly wasted/spoiled as an investor. I helped fund startups a few times, usually lost my investment (one high-tech startup isn’t dead yet but has underperformed real estate). I’ll just never buy anything other than more real estate from now on.

Owning the only bridge is a great business model — if it’s available

[BlackDog204]

LPC: 44% (+11)
CPC: 40% (+6)
NDP: 7% (-11)
BQ: 5% (-3)
GPC: 2% (-)
PPC: 1% (-4)
Others: 1%

Mainstreet / Mar 25, 2025 / n=1230 / Online

(% Change w 2021 Federal Election)

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Lio's right, you're out of touch with Quebec.

Unsure why you keep stating others are "out of touch" with Quebec. Maybe it is you that is out of touch with Quebec.

[LuluBobo]

I'm curious where the NDP goes. 338 has them at only 6 seats. It would be their worst ever performance, even going back to the CCF days.

They need to get rid of Singh and take a long look in the mirror.

[Marshsparrow]

All the maple MAGA supporters clutching their pearls and grasping at Carney not speaking french and the polls being wrong and that it's only a little bump - you all blew a 25% lead...

Meanwhile Danielle back to Florida to hang out with Ben Shapiro as April 2 looms large.

Rewatch the Jordan Peterson Pierre interview... some of those clips need to be turned into an attack ad.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by LuluBobo

I'm curious where the NDP goes. 338 has them at only 6 seats. It would be their worst ever performance, even going back to the CCF days.

They need to get rid of Singh and take a long look in the mirror.

I've heard a lot of rumours that many in the party want to lure Wab Kinew out of provincial politics, and have him as leader. I don't believe he would agree to it, as he has only been Manitoba Premier for less than 2 years. The NDP made a big mistake by not choosing Charlie Angus as leader.