Canadian Federal Election

[Hackslack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

This points out how little movement is needed for massive changes in results. Even a 40% Liberal 37% Con 7 % NDP 6% Bloc is almost certainly a majority government and it would still mean people switched from the Liberals to Cons but more people switched from NDP to Liberal. Probably 80% of us outside of Quebec probably voted the same as last time.

Pretty much my point. Cons lead evaporated because of complete collapse of NDP and Bloc, not so much as complete collapse of con support altogether.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by Calgarian

Was she actually encouraging foreign interference? suggesting a pause on tariffs until after the election seems like a reasonable thing to say, especially in response to a question.

Yes, it is.

She can say what ever she wants and she can espouse her view whenever and wherever she wants BUT when you are asking a foreign gov't to change their policies in order to change the outcome in a Canadian election, that is illegal.

She was not just "offering an opinion" or "standing up for Alberta" because she stated that she had been in discussion with OFFICIALS in Washington and she was not proposing an end to the tariffs but simply a stall on them during our election. That is someone who is requesting a foreign gov't interfere with our democratic process. This is completely unconscionable.

What I'm equally offended by is PP's response saying she has freedom of speech and quickly moved on. The silence on her actions and the outright condemnation of them has been deafening. Up until 1 month ago I was definitely voting PP and since Carney arrived I was totally split but now, due to Smith's actions and PP's lack of response, I am, admittedly with my nose plugged, supporting Carney.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

The thought does keep me up at night especially given Carney's appalling French proficiency, since as you already know my life is pretty much intertwined between the two solitudes.

The odds of the PQ forming the next government in 2026 are approximately as high under Poilievre than under Carney, so I’m not sure it matters much who forms the federal govt at this point, from the point of view of a third referendum.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by lio45

The odds of the PQ forming the next government in 2026 are approximately as high under Poilievre than under Carney, so I’m not sure it matters much who forms the federal govt at this point, from the point of view of a third referendum.

I think the size of the PQ majority (especially if it reaches super-majority status) will dictate the speed and timeline of the next referendum.

It'll matter in the sense of which leader represents the federalists during the referendum.

[samne]

For those dismissing Polymarket measure, Carney jumped back up to 56% briefly. Probably due to the Pierre comments

[lio45]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

It'll matter in the sense of which leader represents the federalists during the referendum.

Of course, and my point was that neither of these two (Poilievre and Carney) has a clear overall advantage against the other, when it comes to representing the federalist side during the referendum.

Poilievre speaks better but has the downsides of being more Western and more socially conservative. A Reform-style PM isn’t that well-suited to convince Quebec to stay on board a big tent federation.

[samne]

Originally Posted by lio45

Of course, and my point was that neither of these two (Poilievre and Carney) has a clear overall advantage against the other, when it comes to representing the federalist side during the referendum.

Poilievre speaks better but has the downsides of being more Western and more socially conservative. A Reform-style PM isn’t that well-suited to convince Quebec to stay on board a big tent federation.

Harper handled the exact same situation pretty well with a “Quebec, I’ll leave you alone, you do your thing” type attitude.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Another one? Wouldn't I (and Lio too) be more of a Bloc guy, if you guys are going to lower yourselves to doing these paranoid types of Peanut Gallery assessments of our political leanings?

The biggest Trump apologists on this site. Which federal party is most aligned with Maga?

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by samne

Harper handled the exact same situation pretty well with a “Quebec, I’ll leave you alone, you do your thing” type attitude.

Stephen Harper as PM never had to deal with a Quebec independence referendum.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by samne

Harper handled the exact same situation pretty well with a “Quebec, I’ll leave you alone, you do your thing” type attitude.

Yeah, but I don’t see the odds of Carney having that type of attitude being much lower than the odds of Poilievre having it. Carney is a pretty blue Liberal and doesn’t seem too ideological. If he realizes the best way to help national unity is to leave Quebec alone, he might find it acceptable, I doubt he’d have a mental blocking about this the way a JT would.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

Pretty much my point. Cons lead evaporated because of complete collapse of NDP and Bloc, not so much as complete collapse of con support altogether.

Doing some quick projecting, but the NDP would need to get their national numbers up above 14% to evaporate the LPC gains and put the CPC ahead in projected seat count. But a good chunk of that would need to occur in BC and Ontario.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by lio45

Yeah, but I don’t see the odds of Carney having that type of attitude being much lower than the odds of Poilievre having it. Carney is a pretty blue Liberal and doesn’t seem too ideological. If he realizes the best way to help national unity is to leave Quebec alone, he might find it acceptable, I doubt he’d have a mental blocking about this the way a JT would.

For Trudeauist Liberals, the whole issue is very personal. Almost a cult of personality thing passed down from JT's father.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Doing some quick projecting, but the NDP would need to get their national numbers up above 14% to evaporate the LPC gains and put the CPC ahead in projected seat count. But a good chunk of that would need to occur in BC and Ontario.

At first sight, as long as the NDP remains in the toilet, the Liberals can get a majority without even needing more from Quebec than their core Montreal ridings, right?

Poilievre is capped at ~40% in Anglo-Canada so that leaves ~60% for Carney. Let’s say there’s a ~5-10% of the electorate that’s “core NDP/Green” and wouldn’t ever consider voting strategically, that’s still ~50-55% of the electorate that prefers Carney to Poilievre and could vote Red.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

The biggest Trump apologists on this site. Which federal party is most aligned with Maga?

There are literal Trump supporters on this site.

Anyway, if you're going to deduce something about my leanings from my posts, wouldn't you choose the Bloc, logically? Even though they're a bit too keen on Hamas for my liking. Among other flaws.

No one really escapes my criticism all the time, nor does anyone never get any praise from me.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Stephen Harper as PM never had to deal with a Quebec independence referendum.

Carney might be pragmatic enough to grant Quebec most of its demands, if he’s PM during a 2026-20xx PQ government.

Does Canada prefer the Swiss model (decentralized) or the Trump model (centralized)?

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by lio45

At first sight, as long as the NDP remains in the toilet, the Liberals can get a majority without even needing more from Quebec than their core Montreal ridings, right?

Poilievre is capped at ~40% in Anglo-Canada so that leaves ~60% for Carney. Let’s say there’s a ~5-10% of the electorate that’s “core NDP/Green” and wouldn’t ever consider voting strategically, that’s still ~50-55% of the electorate that prefers Carney to Poilievre and could vote Red.

Yeah, even in a situation where say the LPC vote share in QC ends up being around 30-31%, which would be down from 2021, and all of it goes directly back to the Bloc to get them around 35%, then the Liberals still get a majority, albeit a slim one.

The model I threw together over the past few days spits out 176 seats should nothing else change from the current polling average except that direct transfer of LPC to BQ votes.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by lio45

Carney might be pragmatic enough to grant Quebec most of its demands, if he’s PM during a 2026-20xx PQ government.

Does Canada prefer the Swiss model (decentralized) or the Trump model (centralized)?

One thing is certain is that the Quebec and French things are not "personal" for him.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Yes, it is.

She can say what ever she wants and she can espouse her view whenever and wherever she wants BUT when you are asking a foreign gov't to change their policies in order to change the outcome in a Canadian election, that is illegal.

She was not just "offering an opinion" or "standing up for Alberta" because she stated that she had been in discussion with OFFICIALS in Washington and she was not proposing an end to the tariffs but simply a stall on them during our election. That is someone who is requesting a foreign gov't interfere with our democratic process. This is completely unconscionable.

What I'm equally offended by is PP's response saying she has freedom of speech and quickly moved on. The silence on her actions and the outright condemnation of them has been deafening. Up until 1 month ago I was definitely voting PP and since Carney arrived I was totally split but now, due to Smith's actions and PP's lack of response, I am, admittedly with my nose plugged, supporting Carney.

What I find absolutely incredible, is that she still is going to go through with her podcast on the Ben Shapiro show in Florida, with taxpayer money, in spite of all the controversy her last appearance on Breitbart brought upon her. At this point, she is giving a "fuck you" to the people of Alberta and Canada. She doesn't care.

This was not the first time she has encouraged foreign interference, in Canadian politics. It should be noted that this meeting took place AFTER Tucker Carlson called for the US to invade Canada on his podcast.

[Hackslack]

How Carney gets my vote:

Cancel west coast oil tanker ban
Cancel no pipelines bill
Cancel or at least amend O&G emissions cap
Stand by regulatory O&G regulatory process

Campaign on utilizing revenue geneeetsed from future projects for green energy development. Leverage every dollar going forward from additional resource development from those changes.


Not asking for pipeline corridor. Not asking for any money. Nothing else… hell, reinstall Carbon tax - which I think is garaunteed anyway.

[Tvisforme]

Originally Posted by JakeLRS

Pierre Poilievre announces he will not remove Pharmacare, $10 a daycare or dental care.

"We will protect these programs and no one who has them will lose them"


This threat of conservatives axing these programs can now end. What is unknown is if these programs will be expanded or not.

As you said, his quote is "We will protect these programs and no one who has them will lose them". That can be interpreted many ways, but an easy one is that Pharmacare as is will stay for those who currently qualify; no new drugs will be added and the coverage will not be expanded. Same for dental care, which - as of the date of the election - does not cover the 18-65 group.