Canadian Federal Election - Page 188

Acajack · #**3741** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 3:38 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by travis3000

Yeah yeah, all you CPC guys give me that quote like a bible verse "but the US election". First off, American pollsters are way worse than Canadian ones. Instead of looking south, how about you stick in your own backyards. Firms like Leger, Ipsos, Liason, Nanos, have exceptional track records.

If you prefer to stick with a gamblers betting website, all the power to you!

I am a "CPC guy"?

travis3000 · #**3742** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 3:42 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Acajack

I am a "CPC guy"?

Acajack, let's not play games here. I've been in this forum for over 13 years. I've seen your replies throughout different elections. You and Lio literally exchange fantasy stories each federal election of how Trudeau and the LPC will be wiped out of Quebec, won't win a single seat outside of Montreal, will be lucky to get 15-20 seats. Each time being humiliated. Both your takes of the Quebec political landscape need to be taken with a grain of salt. Respectfully.

Acajack · #**3743** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 3:44 PM**

BTW I have to admit to wondering whether Polymarket is properly tuned in, tailored and has sufficient data for the Canadian political scene. I guess we'll know in 35 days. Everyone was laughing them off and dismissing them in the US until the evening of the elections when the results were coming in.

BlackDog204 · #**3744** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 3:44 PM**

According to 338Canada, the Liberals are increasing their lead:

338Canada🍁federal update | March 25, 2025

🔴LPC 185
---------------majority: 172 seats
🔵CPC 126
⚜️BQ 24
🟠NDP 7
🟢GPC 1

Acajack · #**3745** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 3:45 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by travis3000

Acajack, let's not play games here. I've been in this forum for over 13 years. I've seen your replies throughout different elections. You and Lio literally exchange fantasy stories each federal election of how Trudeau and the LPC will be wiped out of Quebec, won't win a single seat outside of Montreal, will be lucky to get 15-20 seats. Each time being humiliated. Both your takes of the Quebec political landscape need to be taken with a grain of salt. Respectfully.

OK, sure.

travis3000 · #**3746** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 3:53 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Acajack

BTW I have to admit to wondering whether Polymarket is properly tuned in, tailored and has sufficient data for the Canadian political scene. I guess we'll know in 35 days. Everyone was laughing them off and dismissing them in the US until the evening of the elections when the results were coming in.

Polymarket is a bunch of US investors trying to gauge the outcome. I am not saying they will be right or wrong. What I am saying is that for today (March 25th), when EVERY poll has a Liberal win, most have LPC majority... this site should be taking that into consideration in their formula.

In the US election, it has been common knowledge that the US pollsters have struggled to capture Trump support in their polls. We seen it in 2016, 2020, and 2024. They continually underestimate Trump voters and overestimate Democrat voters especially in swing states. This is a US problem tied to Trump specifically.

Here in Canada we do not have these issues. Go back to 2011, 2015, 2019, 2021... our national pollsters ALWAYS get the result correct, the top pollsters always coming in within 1-2 points or less from final outcome. I would think it would be prudent to take this into consideration if I was a smart gambler. Apparently these people are not.

In 1-2 weeks from now it may be another story. PP could make a comeback indeed. Im not stupid here. Election campaigns can change at a whim. But for right now, lets respect the data we have.

BlackDog204 · #**3747** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 3:53 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hackslack

Poilievre popular vote in polls this time around is soaring .

Soaring is incorrect. Poilievre's approval ratings have significantly dropped since the beginning of the year.

Calgarian · #**3748** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 3:54 PM**

Poilievre's refusal to get security clearance is a big reason I don't trust him. This isn't the Liberals trying to muzzle you, it's your damn job to know secrets if you want to be PM.

Wigs · #**3749** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 3:58 PM**

Wait, is there not a requirement that you cannot be PM unless you clear a background security clearance check?

BlackDog204 · #**3750** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 3:59 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Acajack

I am a "CPC guy"?

It's obvious to us regular members that you are very pro-Conservative, and openly rooting for them to win. Nothing to be ashamed of. I'm not going to deny I am hoping for a Liberal win, but not as much as I want to CPC to get decimated, as I do not believe they are going to work in the best interests of Canadians.

Marshsparrow · #**3751** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 3:59 PM**

Pierre's response today is laughable... this guy is not ready for prime time let alone running a lemonade stand.

It is everyone's fault, he has no resposiblity, he will not be silenced...

He's compromised.

Acajack · #**3752** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 4:03 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

It's obvious to us regular members that you are very pro-Conservative, and openly rooting for them to win. I'm not going to deny I am hoping for a Liberal win, but not as much as I want to CPC to get decimated, as I do not believe they are going to work in the best interests of Canadians.

Another one? Wouldn't I (and Lio too) be more of a Bloc guy, if you guys are going to lower yourselves to doing these paranoid types of Peanut Gallery assessments of our political leanings?

P'tit Renard · #**3753** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 4:09 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

It's obvious to us regular members that you are very pro-Conservative, and openly rooting for them to win. Nothing to be ashamed of. I'm not going to deny I am hoping for a Liberal win, but not as much as I want to CPC to get decimated, as I do not believe they are going to work in the best interests of Canadians.

You have such a poor read of Quebec that this reads like a parody.

Takeoff · #**3754** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 4:09 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

Pierre's response today is laughable... this guy is not ready for prime time let alone running a lemonade stand.

It is everyone's fault, he has no resposiblity, he will not be silenced...

He's compromised.

What a terrible response. Having the headline on every news outlet being I doesn’t want security clearance because they want to muzzle me shows lack of maturity. Who’s running the CPC campaign?

missing_middle · #**3755** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 4:12 PM**

I mean if you think that Polymarket is not gauging Canadian polls/politics correctly....then there's an opportunity there...(not investment advice lol)

Looking at it right now is showing 51% for Carney to be PM and 49% for Pollivere. So it doesn't really seem that off imo.

Marshsparrow · #**3756** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 4:18 PM**

Some journalists picking up that the CPC slogan sign does not read well when it appears on two lines:

Axe the Sales
Tax on Homes

The french reads fine...

BlackDog204 · #**3757** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 4:20 PM**

Latest poll (Leger)

BlackDog204 · #**3758** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 4:21 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

You have such a poor read of Quebec that this reads like a parody.

So, I should just take "your word" on what is happening in Quebec, and ignore polls?

P'tit Renard · #**3759** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 4:26 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

So, I should just take "your word" on what is happening in Quebec, and ignore polls?

You called out Acajack as a pro-Conservative. Clearly he's not (and neither is lio), but you're blinded by partisan zealotry and mis-labelled him as one.

Posting a random poll centering on Montreal island, the reddest fiefdom in all of Canada is a zany and nonsensical tangent worthy of a TruAnon fanatic.

lio45 · #**3760** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 4:27 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Trump did just make English the only official language in the United States ( presumably also including places like Puerto Rico and Samoa.

And, the protestations of nine million Quebecers won't mean much to a nation with a combined population of 375 million people.

It should be clear that Canada is the better option..........

Both options are awful, if the idea is our long-term survival.