Canadian Federal Election - Page 187

Ozabald · #**3721** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 2:14 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

• Video Link

CBC hosted the National from Saint John the last two nights, and tonight will be the last night. They picked Saint John because of its spot a top the tariff impact list.

Some good coverage of Saint John and how the tariffs will impact the city on the second night. Didn’t expect to see this from the CBC.

So, the CBC was not confused and knew the difference between Saint John and St. John's.

travis3000 · #**3722** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 2:15 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

This one?

CSIS alleges India organized support for Poilievre’s 2022 Conservative leadership bid

source: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics...erference-pierre-poilievre-conservative/

Might be why PP refuses to get his security clearance. His campaign has been shady from the start. Not a good start of the campaign for him between the Smith debacle and now this.

travis3000 · #**3723** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 2:16 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by samne

Next Prime Minister of Canada after the election?

Polievre 50%
Carney 50%

It’s currently a tie. Let’s see who can get momentum.

https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minster-of-canada?tid=1742910134091

Polymarket is a joke. There is absolutely nothing at this time to suggest its a 50/50 split. Every single poll is showing a Liberal win at this moment. This should reflect that.

Taeolas · #**3724** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 2:22 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by travis3000

Polymarket is a joke. There is absolutely nothing at this time to suggest its a 50/50 split. Every single poll is showing a Liberal win at this moment. This should reflect that.

Well Nanos is still showing a CPC lead; but they've got a lot of lag in their numbers apparently. (I don't know their methods; just going from others have said here)

Looking at the public polls 338 is reporting, Abacus is the only "recent" one with a CPC lead, but that's from almost a week ago as well.

Acajack · #**3725** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 2:36 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by travis3000

Polymarket is a joke. There is absolutely nothing at this time to suggest its a 50/50 split. Every single poll is showing a Liberal win at this moment. This should reflect that.

Polymarket were almost the only ones calling for a Trump victory, earlier and against all of the pollsters.

Acajack · #**3726** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 2:37 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

And even less will vote for Pierre or right of centre parties...

The point wasn't that Poilievre is necessarily more unifying, only that Carney isn't either.

Dengler Avenue · #**3727** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 2:37 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Acajack

Polymarket were almost the only ones calling for a Trump victory, earlier and against all of the pollsters.

Let’s see how many voters (in the silent majority) are going to be okay with a possibly Trump-like PP.

Acajack · #**3728** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 2:39 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I think as far as Acajack is concerned, the lack of fluency in French is a deal breaker, and that Carney therefore should never have offered as Liberal leader. Only people with flawless French and no discernable accent need apply for the position.

Language isn't the only factor I consider when voting, but even if it was, it's untrue that I am this rigorous. Harper was fine. Layton was fine. Poilievre is fine. Freeland is fine. Singh in fine. All of them has strong accents and make mistakes.

All I am saying is that on this metric, there is a good chance Carney is not "fine".

Anyway, we will see on April 28.

Dengler Avenue · #**3729** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 2:43 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Acajack

Language isn't the only factor I consider when voting, but even if it was, it's untrue that I am this rigorous. Harper was fine. Layton was fine. Poilievre is fine. Freeland is fine. Singh in fine. All of them has strong accents and make mistakes.

All I am saying is that on this metric, there is a good chance Carney is not "fine".

Anyway, we will see on April 28.

Are you watching the French debate on April 17?

EnvisionSaintJohn · #**3730** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 2:45 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ozabald

So, the CBC was not confused and knew the difference between Saint John and St. John's.

This time… but they’ve been confused before. Check the thread, I posted it there previously

BlackDog204 · #**3731** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 2:47 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Acajack

Language isn't the only factor I consider when voting, but even if it was, it's untrue that I am this rigorous. Harper was fine. Layton was fine. Poilievre is fine. Freeland is fine. Singh in fine. All of them has strong accents and make mistakes.

All I am saying is that on this metric, there is a good chance Carney is not "fine".

Anyway, we will see on April 28.

People in Quebec are the most anti-Trump residents of Canada. Carney fluency in French will be a distant second to the real election issue. Carney is easily going to win the most seats there, considering the Bloc cannot appeal to their Separation supporters, since there is a much larger enemy sizing them up, that would definitely force through an "English only" mandate.

MonctonRad · #**3732** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 2:50 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

People in Quebec are the most anti-Trump residents of Canada. Carney fluency in French will be a distant second to the real election issue. Carney is easily going to win the most seats there, considering the Bloc cannot appeal to their Separation supporters, since there is a much larger enemy sizing them up, that would definitely force through an "English only" mandate.

Trump did just make English the only official language in the United States ( presumably also including places like Puerto Rico and Samoa.

And, the protestations of nine million Quebecers won't mean much to a nation with a combined population of 375 million people.

It should be clear that Canada is the better option..........

YOWetal · #**3733** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 2:51 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by travis3000

Polymarket is a joke. There is absolutely nothing at this time to suggest its a 50/50 split. Every single poll is showing a Liberal win at this moment. This should reflect that.

That's current polls. Most people consider there is a high probability that the Conservatives win the campaign and decisively. The incumbency drag is still there at the end of the day.

The numbers podcast hosted by 338 and the Writ poll aggregators had a good analogy. Pre campaign is the first period. Early campaign the second period and late campaign the third period. The Liberals enter the second period with a one or two goal lead. Which is where you want to be but not decisive. Wheras a December election would have seen the Conservatives enter the second period with a 4 goal lead.

That said. The betting is probably pretty thin on polymarket. It's probably underappreciated how the Liberals can win the election even losing the vote by 4 or even 5 points in some scenarios. They can also win less seats and Carney could stay in power. As the incumbent he gets first crack and with a narrow loss I could see him trying for that.

BlackDog204 · #**3734** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 2:58 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by YOWetal

The numbers podcast hosted by 338 and the Writ poll aggregators had a good analogy. Pre campaign is the first period. Early campaign the second period and late campaign the third period. The Liberals enter the second period with a one or two goal lead. Which is where you want to be but not decisive. Wheras a December election would have seen the Conservatives enter the second period with a 4 goal lead.

That may be a good analogy, if the Conservatives had a leader who is appealing to the Canadian public. Judging by opinion polling, Poilievre's favourability rating continues to drop, the more the Canadian public is exposed to him. He just is not a likeable person. I would be the most shocked person in Canada, if the Conservatives somehow pull this election off. It will have to be in spite of their leader.

Acajack · #**3735** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 3:13 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Are you watching the French debate on April 17?

Of course. I watch all the debates.

samne · #**3736** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 3:28 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by travis3000

Polymarket is a joke. There is absolutely nothing at this time to suggest its a 50/50 split. Every single poll is showing a Liberal win at this moment. This should reflect that.

Polymarket ended up being the most accurate and correct predictor for the US election. Can see the trendlines at certain points of the campaigns. Most US polls favoured Kamala right up to election day even with more sophisticated data.

The consensus after the US election was how did the polls have it so wrong.

Will see how this plays out for Canada. Carney had as much as 60% when he was sworn in.

Acajack · #**3737** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 3:36 PM**

The Conservatives are offering to pay the 75k to TVA so Mark Carney can take part in the debate.

travis3000 · #**3738** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 3:36 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Acajack

Polymarket were almost the only ones calling for a Trump victory, earlier and against all of the pollsters.

Yeah yeah, all you CPC guys copy and paste that quote like a bible verse "but the US election". First off, American pollsters are way worse than Canadian ones. Instead of looking south, how about you stick in your own backyards. Firms like Leger, Ipsos, Liason, Nanos, have exceptional track records in recent elections. American firms have been horrible since Trump entered the picture at capturing what's going on. Not the same thing here at all.

If you prefer to stick with a gamblers betting website, all the power to you!

Acajack · #**3739** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 3:38 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by samne

Polymarket ended up being the most accurate and correct predictor for the US election. Can see the trendlines at certain points of the campaigns. Most US polls favoured Kamala right up to election day even with more sophisticated data.

The consensus after the US election was how did the polls have it so wrong.

Will see how this plays out for Canada. Carney had as much as 60% when he was sworn in.

I was in NYC three weeks before the US elections and the big electronic signs there were all showing Polymarket stats with Trump favoured to win in the 60s%. Completely opposite to what all of the pollsters were saying.

Hackslack · #**3740** Posted **Mar 25, 2025, 3:38 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

That may be a good analogy, if the Conservatives had a leader who is appealing to the Canadian public. Judging by opinion polling, Poilievre's favourability rating continues to drop, the more the Canadian public is exposed to him. He just is not a likeable person. I would be the most shocked person in Canada, if the Conservatives somehow pull this election off. It will have to be in spite of their leader.

Poilievre popular vote in polls this time around is soaring compared to the leaders of the conservatives in last 3 elections, which means it’s even higher than the support the leader of the Libs in the last 2 elections.

If the conservatives win this election it will be because the conventual NDP and BQ supporters go back to supporting those respective parties.