Quote:
Originally Posted by travis3000
Polymarket is a joke. There is absolutely nothing at this time to suggest its a 50/50 split. Every single poll is showing a Liberal win at this moment. This should reflect that.
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That's current polls. Most people consider there is a high probability that the Conservatives win the campaign and decisively. The incumbency drag is still there at the end of the day.
The numbers podcast hosted by 338 and the Writ poll aggregators had a good analogy. Pre campaign is the first period. Early campaign the second period and late campaign the third period. The Liberals enter the second period with a one or two goal lead. Which is where you want to be but not decisive. Wheras a December election would have seen the Conservatives enter the second period with a 4 goal lead.
That said. The betting is probably pretty thin on polymarket. It's probably underappreciated how the Liberals can win the election even losing the vote by 4 or even 5 points in some scenarios. They can also win less seats and Carney could stay in power. As the incumbent he gets first crack and with a narrow loss I could see him trying for that.
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