Canadian Federal Election

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Poilievre repeatedly has been saying "Canada is broken" for the last 2-3 years, which is essentially the same thing.

PP's messaging is tone deaf (to say the least) given current political reality.

He needs to do a 180 degree shift.

- no more mention of carbon taxes.
- pump up the Canadian patriotism (Canada is not broken)
- acknowledge that Adolf Drumpf is the Great Satan, and distance himself accordingly.
- present an optimistic and aggressive plan to deal with the economic disturbance caused by Trumpian tariffs. This would include a support plan for dislocated workers, and an aggressive infrastructure program to support interprovincial trade, and to create alternate employment.

Sadly, I think he is incapable of such a pivot shift.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Elections, like markets, are forward looking.

It's not about Justin anymore. We want to know who is the best manager and leader through this crisis.

Mostly yes especially when Polievre managed to personalize all the errors of the Libs onto Trudeau. In truth there were lots of others who will continue in power if Carney is elected. The Cons might be able to transfer some of that past anger onto local candidates who are filled with photos supporting but most Canadians are going to be voting on the national question so that's not going to move the needle very much.

[missing_middle]

Honestly if the election is just more "who can be most punitive against America/Trump" as a way to deal with the tariffs then Canada will just fall further behind again imo.

I'm looking for a longer term vision that's centered around strategic economic stimulus/competitiveness that's would enhance economic sovereignty.

Not sure that's possible given how Canadian politics operates and that certain vote-rich demographics are somewhat insulated and disconnected due to the preservation of yesteryear economic thinking. It's more about preservation than being forward-looking/dynamic. Housing already exposed this flaw within Canada imo.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by trueviking

I have noticed that the world is still dealing with the impacts of a global pandemic, yes.

I also know that in the five years before the pandemic Liberal policies significantly lowered poverty and homelessness rates. Although they have risen since the end of the pandemic, they are still below 2015 levels.

People are lining up for minimum wage jobs? Hadn’t heard that.

Being Liberal is funny. Conservatives all scream they are economy crushing communists and lefty’s all scream they do nothing but line the pockets of the aristocracy.

Lol. “The impacts of a global pandemic” isn’t the reason our peers became South Sudan and Syria for a while. Nice try

And homelessness isn’t below 2015 levels — what sort of cave are you living in?!? There was no housing crisis back in 2015.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

PP's messaging is tone deaf (to say the least) given current political reality.

He needs to do a 180 degree shift.

- no more mention of carbon taxes.
- pump up the Canadian patriotism (Canada is not broken)
- acknowledge that Adolf Drumpf is the Great Satan, and distance himself accordingly.
- present an optimistic and aggressive plan to deal with the economic disturbance caused by Trumpian tariffs. This would include a support plan for dislocated workers, and an aggressive infrastructure program to support interprovincial trade, and to create alternate employment.

Sadly, I think he is incapable of such a pivot shift.

Poilievre anti-Trudeau messaging was actually TOO good — it brought Trudeau down before the election. Now PP will have a different opponent, which is a pretty big problem for him.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by missing_middle

Honestly if the election is just more "who can be most punitive against America/Trump" as a way to deal with the tariffs then Canada will just fall further behind again imo.

I'm looking for a longer term vision that's centered around strategic economic stimulus/competitiveness that's would enhance economic sovereignty.

Not sure that's possible given how Canadian politics operates and that certain vote-rich demographics are somewhat insulated and disconnected due to the preservation of yesteryear economic thinking. It's more about preservation than being forward-looking/dynamic. Housing already exposed this flaw within Canada imo.

The election question will absolutely be about who can defend Canada. That doesn't mean a new government won't have to also focus on how to restore Canadian competitiveness. Carney will slow spending growth, make some strategic small tax cuts, use industrial policy to build transit and the low carbon economy while probably letting the resource sector grow a bit more than Trudeau did. Meanwhile Carney will massively slash government spending, cut regulation, cut taxes. That will have mixed results. The recession it could trigger from benefit cuts and job losses might overwhelm the rest of the benefits. There is also some chance of chaos as we are seeing in the US. A Con majority after all this will be absolutely emboldened to do everything they've been dreaming about since reading Ayn Rand in highschool.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by lio45

Poilievre anti-Trudeau messaging was actually TOO good — it brought Trudeau down before the election. Now PP will have a different opponent, which is a pretty big problem for him.

I don't think Pierre chased him, I think Trump did. If Harris had won, we would have just been continuing on as before and the opposition would have likely had their non-con vote sometime in January. Instead of an Ontario election 3 weeks ago, it would have been a federal election and just about the same time as Carney was sworn in the other day, it would have been Pierre.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lio45

There was no housing crisis back in 2015.

Debatable. Price/income ratios were already at multi-decade highs in 2015. Just not the nose bleed levels of today.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

A Con majority after all this will be absolutely emboldened to do everything they've ben dreaming about since reading Ayn Rand in highschool.

Kinda part of their messaging problem. Reminds me of Tim Hudak in Ontario. He got a bit too gleeful about cutting public servants and it contributed to tanking his campaign. The glee with which some conservatives are talking about slashing whole services (CBC, Canada Post, etc) at the same time as the US provides a live demonstration of letting these fantasies run wild, is going to give more than a few period pause. Like, at least pretend it's regretful that you have to kick some public servants to the curb.

Also, again, I'll say, it's not just the politicians. Every PP fan posting and tweeting about how he can't wait for xyz agency to be shuttered or so many public servants to be fired, is a reminder of how much that whole movement lacks compassion. And at a time where a whole lot of Canadians might be facing unemployment thanks to Trump, they want to see some inkling of compassion.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Debatable. Price/income ratios were already at multi-decade highs in 2015. Just not the nose bleed levels of today.

The "Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting" thread was launched in 2011, so there were plenty of commentators thought there was a problem then. It's interesting reading the predictions of the massive reduction in prices that some insisted would happen.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Kinda part of their messaging problem. Reminds me of Tim Hudak in Ontario. He got a bit too gleeful about cutting public servants and it contributed to tanking his campaign. The glee with which some conservatives are talking about slashing whole services (CBC, Canada Post, etc) at the same time as the US provides a live demonstration of letting these fantasies run wild, is going to give more than a few period pause. Like, at least pretend it's regretful that you have to kick some public servants to the curb.

Also, again, I'll say, it's not just the politicians. Every PP fan posting and tweeting about how he can't wait for xyz agency to be shuttered or so many public servants to be fired, is a reminder of how much that whole movement lacks compassion. And at a time where a whole lot of Canadians might be facing unemployment thanks to Trump, they want to see some inkling of compassion.

It's not just the compassion aspect that's missing from getting rid of large numbers of civil servants, or gutting government departments. It's the failure to acknowledge what the effect of having a large number of unemployed people dumped into the economy at the same time might be. Firing all the probationary hires, because they have less protection also seems another level of short sighted.

Gutting NOAA won't stop devastating weather events wrecking local economies and potentially taking lives and livelihoods. It just means they won't know as well when those events might happen.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Kinda part of their messaging problem. Reminds me of Tim Hudak in Ontario. He got a bit too gleeful about cutting public servants and it contributed to tanking his campaign. The glee with which some conservatives are talking about slashing whole services (CBC, Canada Post, etc) at the same time as the US provides a live demonstration of letting these fantasies run wild, is going to give more than a few period pause. Like, at least pretend it's regretful that you have to kick some public servants to the curb.

Also, again, I'll say, it's not just the politicians. Every PP fan posting and tweeting about how he can't wait for xyz agency to be shuttered or so many public servants to be fired, is a reminder of how much that whole movement lacks compassion. And at a time where a whole lot of Canadians might be facing unemployment thanks to Trump, they want to see some inkling of compassion.

Hudak's loss was absolutely over confidence with an extreme platform they thought would give them the mandate to make cuts. It was also heavily skewed towards education cuts which are exactly the cuts suburban women are worried about. Conservative HQ absolutely was aware of the risks of a new leader being able to eke out a win against an extreme platform which is one reason they were pretty circumspect about cuts. Pre-inauguration so pre-drop in the polls Poilievre was already making statements about no cuts to individuals and a focus on excess public servants.

I think you are right. The CBC talk might be pretty popular with the base and swing voters are indifferent to the CBC (they are too busy and anti-intellectual to consume much CBC content) but the glee exposes, rightly, that they will be cutting a lot more than the CBC.

[missing_middle]

I don't think anything cuts through the noise and BS on economic competitiveness and "defending canada" in this country than just looking at the personnel ratio between the CRA and our military lol.

Our mindset and priorities are pretty clear when you just look past the rhetoric. We are equally interested in defending Canada from everyday Canadians as defending it from the outside.

Given the default inertia of the Canadian bureaucratic mindset maybe we should just require weapons training for CRA employees and have a dual use reserve force. Our military would nearly double.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by lio45

Lol. “The impacts of a global pandemic” isn’t the reason our peers became South Sudan and Syria for a while. Nice try

And homelessness isn’t below 2015 levels — what sort of cave are you living in?!? There was no housing crisis back in 2015.

Yes, it's amazing Liberal ultra-partisans can get away with these vapid lies. Maybe Trueviking needs a boots on the ground tour of the homeless catastrophe in Toronto, GTA and Southern Ontario to finally wake up and realize how horrific the current homeless crisis is, which is significantly worse than the era of every former PM down to Mulroney.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

PP's messaging is tone deaf (to say the least) given current political reality.

He needs to do a 180 degree shift.

- no more mention of carbon taxes.
- pump up the Canadian patriotism (Canada is not broken)
- acknowledge that Adolf Drumpf is the Great Satan, and distance himself accordingly.
- present an optimistic and aggressive plan to deal with the economic disturbance caused by Trumpian tariffs. This would include a support plan for dislocated workers, and an aggressive infrastructure program to support interprovincial trade, and to create alternate employment.

Sadly, I think he is incapable of such a pivot shift.

The longer Carney waits to call an election, the more likely the chances of a full political mutiny break out within the CPC. I've heard rumours that several Conservative MP's are open to ousting Poilievre, and replacing him with someone that is more likeable. The Conservatives are probably in full panic mode, as would any party that blows a 27 point lead in six weeks.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Changing City

The "Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting" thread was launched in 2011, so there were plenty of commentators thought there was a problem then. It's interesting reading the predictions of the massive reduction in prices that some insisted would happen.

From a quick Google.

Year Average Home Price Median Household Income Price-to-Income Ratio
1980 $67,024 $21,252 3.2
1990 $142,053 $41,401 3.4
2000 $164,392 $46,752 3.5
2010 $339,052 $57,299 5.9
2020 $566,828 $84,000 6.7

https://www.nerdwallet.com/ca/mortgages/harsh-housing-market-how-did-we-get-here

If price/income ratio was almost at 6 in 2010, we were already in an affordable housing crisis then. Trudeau has been bad enough on this, that a lot of people have forgotten that Harper wasn't actually great on this.

[Marshsparrow]

Alex Jones out peddling again for Pierre... who does nothing to distance himself from Jones, Musk, OLeary, Peterson, Shapiro, etc.

[BlackDog204]

New polling puts Liberal up by 4 points.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

The longer Carney waits to call an election, the more likely the chances of a full political mutiny break out within the CPC. I've heard rumours that several Conservative MP's are open to ousting Poilievre, and replacing him with someone that is more likeable.

Disinformation probably. There is no way they can change leaders at this point. They still have maybe even odds to win this election now. They might want to delay the election and spend that war chest and start picking holes in Carney. But honestly I think most Conservatives are still pretty confident they are the odds on favorite.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

Alex Jones out peddling again for Pierre... who does nothing to distance himself from Jones, Musk, OLeary, Peterson, Shapiro, etc.

LMAO.

Poilievre and his campaign advisers need to read the room. To NOT make a statement about Musk, Jones, O'Leary, Rogan, etc. is incredible. If I was PP, I would make it clear that I do not condone the views of the US right wing, and neither do any members of the CPC.

Of course, the Conservatives are so out of touch, they will take it as a compliment.