Canadian Federal Election

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Some good points but in Canada Finance is where we challenge the other departments on spending. Sure maybe it should be like Treasury in the US that just does accounting but politically it's good to have at least one strong voice arguing we shouldn't spend. We need to get over our risk aversion in a lot of areas for sure. But look how that works out when you rush out something like an arrival app that was literally a rounding error and which being delayed a single day was probably worth more than the $50 million cost.

First off, we have the policy challenge function. That's what Treasury Board does. They make sure that your procurement or policy proposal meets your intent, the government's intent and is funded. Finance is mostly concerned with management of the financial sector and basic financial management of the different. Once again, so many people educated by CNN and Fox on how the USG works don't understand our own government.

Next, risk aversion and efficiency are diametrically opposed. If you aren't willing to risk something like Arrive Can in the middle of an unprecedented crisis, government will never be able to get anything done. No politician will ever say that out loud. But they all know it. All this talk of running the government like a business and nobody ever talks about how businesses take a ton more risk, because they are largely focused on the reward.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Poilievre's other option is some other response to tariffs. Get a meeting with Trump and convince Canadians Trump hates Trudeau and the Liberals not Canada (possibly true). Or a Nixon to China promise where he says he will turn off the oil AND force through a pipeline to the BC coast. He probably wins Alberta and BC interior anyway where there might be some opposition to the two parts of that strategy.

Nobody in their right mind is going to believe that. Trump is an unhinged lunatic, that is threatening all of America's allies. Blaming Trudeau will not work, since Trump is threatening to annex Canada outright, as well as Greenland, and now the Panama canal.

Aside from that, Trudeau's approval rating has doubled since the whole Trump annexation affair began, so if Poilievre scapegoats Trudeau, it will likely backfire on him.

Trump is a bully and a fascist. The only way to deal with bullies, is to stand up to him. Appeasement does not work. Just ask elderly Europeans how "well" appeasement worked.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by theman23

Poilievre's response has been outlined a few times and is not that different from the LPC re: the tariffs. As far as soundbites go, you don't think the LPC is going to try and win the election?

The problem is that it took the Conservatives and PP a month to mention anything about Trump or the tariffs, while Trudeau was giving possibly his greatest speech ever about Canada standing up to Trump.

In addition to that, even as of this date, all one has to do, is to take a look at the extreme contrasts in social media of Poilievre, when compared to Carney and Trudeau. While Carney is spreading optimism, and confidence in Canada, PP is still doing his usual shtick in regards to the Carbon Tax ("Carbon Tax Carney", "Just Like Justin" etc), with no real solutions to any problems Canada is facing.

I've come to the conclusion that the Liberals are not only going to win, but probably increase their seat total, due to Conservative incompetence. The whole party is tone deaf, and needs a major overhaul.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

The problem is that it took the Conservatives and PP a month to mention anything about Trump or the tariffs, while Trudeau was giving possibly his greatest speech ever about Canada standing up to Trump.

In addition to that, even as of this date, all one has to do, is to take a look at the extreme contrasts in social media of Poilievre, when compared to Carney and Trudeau. While Carney is spreading optimism, and confidence in Canada, PP is still doing his usual shtick in regards to the Carbon Tax ("Carbon Tax Carney", "Just Like Justin" etc), with no real solutions to any problems Canada is facing.

I've come to the conclusion that the Liberals are not only going to win, but probably increase their seat total, due to Conservative incompetence. The whole party is tone deaf, and needs a major overhaul.

Not true. Poilievre has been on the major networks speaking about dollar for dollar tariffs since January. He may not have gotten the signal boost he wanted, but he had to compete against the double whammy of the strong incumbency effect of this issue as well as an LPC leadership race.

It's also natural for the opposition party to paint a less rosy picture than the incumbent. How else would they justify you electing them? It's not like the JT LPC in 2015 were fans of the Harper government.

What has Carney proposed as real solutions to the housing crisis, our now going on three years of declining GDP per capita and loss of living standards? It's not surprising that the Liberal turn around has been almost exclusively on the back of the 55+ vote group. "Invest not spend"? That's almost word for word a rehash of JT era sloganeering from 2015. Carney is positioning himself as yesterday's man, the guy who will use yesterday's ideas of printing money and mortgaging our future just long enough to protect whats yours until you shuffle off this mortal coil.

[Marshsparrow]

Originally Posted by theman23

Not true. Poilievre has been on the major networks speaking about dollar for dollar tariffs since January. He may not have gotten the signal boost he wanted, but he had to compete against the double whammy of the strong incumbency effect of this issue as well as an LPC leadership race.

It's also natural for the opposition party to paint a less rosy picture than the incumbent. How else would they justify you electing them? It's not like the JT LPC in 2015 were fans of the Harper government.

What has Carney proposed as real solutions to the housing crisis, our now going on three years of declining GDP per capita and loss of living standards? It's not surprising that the Liberal turn around has been almost exclusively on the back of the 55+ vote group. "Invest not spend"? That's almost word for word a rehash of JT era sloganeering from 2015. Carney is positioning himself as yesterday's man, the guy who will use yesterday's ideas of printing money and mortgaging our future just long enough to protect whats yours until you shuffle off this mortal coil.

Pierre has told us that everything and we are broken.
Pierre has called us stupid.
He sounds just like Trump and treats journalists and anyone else who disagrees with him with disdain - copies Trumps lines word for word.

He's a liar, manipulator and he made his political bed - his sudden shift isn't fooling anyone.

[Truenorth00]

Politics runs on vibes. Not policy. And Poilievre contributed to that with the sloganeering. Kinda ironic that this is now backfiring on him as the vibes flip. Appealing with policy will be much harder. And Poilievre made it that way with his substanceless "Verb the noun," strategy.

On Carney, smart as he is, I suspect he'll eventually fade out, as reality kicks in. Here's some criticism of Carney from British trader and economist Gary Stevenson (for a different angle), that kinda shows how out of touch Carney can be (as part of that mainstream):

• Video Link

[MonctonRad]

Carney takes over as PM at noontime.

I see his first order of business (aside from cabinet making) is doing a quick European tour.

I have no problem with this. Given current political reality, it is important to establish relationships with our key European allies, and establishing a common front against American aggression.

He can call the election when he gets home.........

[BlackDog204]

After everything Trump has said and done to our nation, 26% of Conservatives still have a favourable view of him. Yesterday, Trump was echoing Putin, and stating that "they need us, we really do not need them. Canada only works as a state, and we really have to "do this."


This is why I will never vote for the Conservative party again, in my lifetime. Over 1/4 of them are Quislings.

[LikesBikes]

The 12% of unsure/don't know enough CPCers is hilariously pathetic. Dude has been dominating the news for better part of a decade but you're still unsure how you feel about him? What idiots.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

After everything Trump has said and done to our nation, 26% of Conservatives still have a favourable view of him. Yesterday, Trump was echoing Putin, and stating that "they need us, we really do not need them. Canada only works as a state, and we really have to "do this."


This is why I will never vote for the Conservative party again, in my lifetime. Over 1/4 of them are Quislings.

It is very disconcerting to read these statistics. Very disconcerting, to say the least.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by LikesBikes

The 12% of unsure/don't know enough CPCers is hilariously pathetic. Dude has been dominating the news for better part of a decade but you're still unsure how you feel about him? What idiots.

Or they just don't want to tell the pollster how they feel?

I'm not shocked by CPC numbers.

I'm shocked by the 12% for the Greens and 5% for the other parties. Hopefully, at least the latter number is statistical noise.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Or they just don't want to tell the pollster how they feel?

I'm not shocked by CPC numbers.

I'm shocked by the 12% for the Greens and 5% for the other parties. Hopefully, at least the latter number is statistical noise.

I believe I did post a poll similar to this one 2-3 weeks ago, asking the same question, by a different polling company. IIRC, for that poll the Liberals, BQ, NDP, and Greens all had Trump with 96% Unfavourable, and the favourability ranging from 3% for Green to less than 1% of Bloc voters.

The poll indicated 41% of Conservative voters had a favourable opinion of Trump, while 44% had an unfavourable opinion of him. So at least some Conservative voters have seen the light in the past 2-3 weeks.

I can see Danielle Smith and Scott Moe falling into the 26% of Conservatives who still hold a favourable opinion of him.

[Truenorth00]

I wonder if part of the challenge that Poilievre et al face are the pro-Trump members of his movement. And I don't mean the politicians. Just imagine that friend or neighbour who is always talking about politics, hates Trudeau and loves Poilievre. But lately he (9 times out of 10 a dude) is telling you how Canada deserved the tariffs because we elected Trudeau and how Trump is right. I presume this might turn some would be CPC voters off.

I'll be honest. I am not sure I want to be on the same team as Build.it, for example.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I wonder if part of the challenge that Poilievre et al face are the pro-Trump members of his movement. And I don't mean the politicians. Just imagine that friend or neighbour who is always talking about politics, hates Trudeau and loves Poilievre. But lately he (9 times out of 10 a dude) is telling you how Canada deserved the tariffs because we elected Trudeau and how Trump is right. I presume this might turn some would be CPC voters off.

I'll be honest. I am not sure I want to be on the same team as Build.it, for example.

100% this! There is some logic to the make nice with Trump to avoid tariffs argument. Fortress North America etc. and arguing Trump is confused but has good intentions (stopping China). This is basically the Doug Ford argument. But the widespread right wing arguments on Twitter (haven't heard anyone say this in person to me) that either we are to blame for this or fighting the Americans is pointless and we should just give in don't make a lot of sense and are offensive to both of us. It's not surprise a lot of them think Ukraine should give in to Russia as well. Their world view is the bigger and strong should always get to take whatever they want. Except of course when Ontario and Quebec combine to dominate electoral politics in Canada then it's unfair. Even if Poilievre doesn't even seem to dogwhistle to this crowd we all know a ton of Conservatives feel this way so we are suspicious. (As with Ukraine tbh)

[casper]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

100% this! There is some logic to the make nice with Trump to avoid tariffs argument. Fortress North America etc. and arguing Trump is confused but has good intentions (stopping China). This is basically the Doug Ford argument. But the widespread right wing arguments on Twitter (haven't heard anyone say this in person to me) that either we are to blame for this or fighting the Americans is pointless and we should just give in don't make a lot of sense and are offensive to both of us. It's not surprise a lot of them think Ukraine should give in to Russia as well. Their world view is the bigger and strong should always get to take whatever they want. Except of course when Ontario and Quebec combine to dominate electoral politics in Canada then it's unfair. Even if Poilievre doesn't even seem to dogwhistle to this crowd we all know a ton of Conservatives feel this way so we are suspicious. (As with Ukraine tbh)

Trudeau tried the "make nice with Trump", it did not work. We did the Fentanyl 1.3 Billion and said the 51st was just a joke. Trump said not good enough and put on tariffs the same.

The Liberal ministers keep talking to them about co-operation and building on the existing relationship. Friendship. etc.

We keep talking about oil as the "nuclear option". I don't think it. The nuclear option is military and intelligence co-operation. The Americans are paranoid. Perhaps with justification. Canada shares a lot of information with the US that protect them from the north. We have a database of people of interest that may walk up to their border. We have early warning radar. We make them safer.

[Truenorth00]

^^ That attitude shines through.

Right now, Scott Moe is holding a press conference saying Carney should go to the US first. Or China. Over Europe.

Cause consulting with allies before dealing with the bullies is a bad idea?

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by casper

Trudeau tried the "make nice with Trump", it did not work. We did the Fentanyl 1.3 Billion and said the 51st was just a joke. Trump said not good enough and put on tariffs the same.

The Liberal ministers keep talking to them about co-operation and building on the existing relationship. Friendship. etc.

We keep talking about oil as the "nuclear option". I don't think it. The nuclear option is military and intelligence co-operation. The Americans are paranoid. Perhaps with justification. Canada shares a lot of information with the US that protect them from the north. We have a database of people of interest that may walk up to their border. We have early warning radar. We make them safer.

"Our" early warning radar is in fact "theirs" too, is it not? It just happens to sit on Canadian soil.

[Truenorth00]

If you want to escalate with the US, do something that hurts industry. Not something that gives Trump an actual excuse to invade by threatening their national security.

I think we should threaten to invalidate pharma patents and ramp production.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Acajack

"Our" early warning radar is in fact "theirs" too, is it not? It just happens to sit on Canadian soil.

Very true. We could however threaten to end the NORAD agreement and order their military personnel out of Canada.

This however should be part of the end game, combined with turning off the pipelines to the south and cutting off electricity supply.

After we do this, the next step would be US military invasion.

[missing_middle]

There is a degree of logical hypocrisy going on because Canada is essentially making the case to the Americans of the benefits of high integration and on some level Trump is like "yes exactly but the final form"