Canadian Federal Election

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Is this an Ekos poll? Either way, this is a pretty staggering poll for the CPC in Atlantic Canada.

It is an EKOS poll, but take it with a grain of salt. Especially since Frankie deleted the tweets showing the poll a few minutes after he posted it. I think the poll may be incomplete. And if it's not, it's a completely busted poll.

Unless you believe the Bloc, Greens, and NDP will combine for 2 total seats in the upcoming election.

Leger is releasing the details of their poll tomorrow which has the national topline at a 37-37 tie. I'd pay more attention to that than whatever drunk Frankie is pushing.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

What matters most to the Casper boomers is to keep the housing bubble going at all costs. On this point, it appears Carney is quite happy to play along. With all other options to grow the economy exhausted, it looks like Carney is quite willing to roll out preferred CMHC rates to foreigners, and continue the Vancouverization of Canada. Screw young people, the real estate gains held by Casper boomers must be protected at all costs.

Canada’s Next PM Working w/Vancouver “Condo King” On Foreign Investment
https://betterdwelling.com/canadas-next-pm-working-w-vancouver-condo-king-on-foreign-investment/

No wonder slumlords, real estate speculords and real estate agents are head over heels for Carney.

This is unbelievably disgusting. That Mark Carney and the Liberals would turn to one of those most responsible for selling out Canadians to offshore money beggars belief.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

It is an EKOS poll, but take it with a grain of salt. Especially since Frankie deleted the tweets showing the poll a few minutes after he posted it. I think the poll may be incomplete. And if it's not, it's a completely busted poll.

Unless you believe the Bloc, Greens, and NDP will combine for 2 total seats in the upcoming election.

Leger is releasing the details of their poll tomorrow which has the national topline at a 37-37 tie. I'd pay more attention to that than whatever drunk Frankie is pushing.

While EKOS might typically favour the LPC, they're still a major, reputable polling firm. 12% support for the CPC in Atlantic Canada, a full 5% lower than the NDP (a party that hasn't won a single seat in Atlantic Canada since 2011) is a pretty staggering poll for the CPC, as the surge in support for the LPC seems to be coming almost entirely from Atlantic Canadians who supported the CPC just a few weeks ago.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

While EKOS might typically favour the LPC, they're still a major, reputable polling firm. 12% support for the CPC in Atlantic Canada, a full 5% lower than the NDP (a party that hasn't won a single seat in Atlantic Canada since 2011) is a pretty staggering poll for the CPC, as the surge in support for the LPC seems to be coming almost entirely from Atlantic Canadians who supported the CPC just a few weeks ago.

Depends on what you define as reputable. Of the agencies which do federal polling for elections, EKOS is certainly one of the worst ones lol. They were pretty off the mark in 2021 and 2019; they love to underestimate CPC support by quite a bit.

I can't take a man seriously who has a vendetta against Poilievre and then watch his polling be an obvious outlier from all the other, much better agencies like Leger.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by whatnext

This is unbelievably disgusting. That Mark Carney and the Liberals would turn to one of those most responsible for selling out Canadians to offshore money beggars belief.

What is the source on this? “Condo king” Bob Rennie himself, telling people on some random podcast that he’s “working” with Carney, a scoop that has only been re-reported on some local development blog/site? Can we have a little more critical thought here? There’s no reason on earth to think this is real.

[casper]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

What matters most to the Casper boomers is to keep the housing bubble going at all costs. On this point, it appears Carney is quite happy to play along. With all other options to grow the economy exhausted, it looks like Carney is quite willing to roll out preferred CMHC rates to foreigners, and continue the Vancouverization of Canada. Screw young people, the real estate gains held by Casper boomers must be protected at all costs.

Canada’s Next PM Working w/Vancouver “Condo King” On Foreign Investment
https://betterdwelling.com/canadas-next-pm-working-w-vancouver-condo-king-on-foreign-investment/

No wonder slumlords, real estate speculords and real estate agents are head over heels for Carney.

First off. I am not a boomer. I am a Gen-Xer. Not that it makes a difference, but google say, us Gen-Xers are "resourceful, independent, and skilled at balancing work and life.".

As for large residential rental towers, these things are not owned by individuals but instead owned by corporations. The corporations are then owned by individuals. Sometimes 1 some times hundreds.

This is a article the quotes a realtor that happens to have been involved in selling a massive number of the condo towers in Vancouver. I know little about him other than his names has show up all over the place on building projects over the last few decades.

What I do believe is the best fix for this problem is to just build more and more housing and let the market drive down rents. Some of it as social housing. A lot more of it should be Co-ops. But in Canada the vast majority is and will always be privately held.

What exactly does "working with Carney mean?" Especially when we are talking about a realtor. With all due respect to the realtor profession they do have a tendency to overstate things.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Depends on what you define as reputable. Of the agencies which do federal polling for elections, EKOS is certainly one of the worst ones lol. They were pretty off the mark in 2021 and 2019; they love to underestimate CPC support by quite a bit.

I can't take a man seriously who has a vendetta against Poilievre and then watch his polling be an obvious outlier from all the other, much better agencies like Leger.

Yet, “Drunk Franky’s” team is still “getting on base” in the aggregate. The gold standard of Canadian polling analysis isn’t removing EKOS’s data from their model, despite the mainly claims of bias against them, and still gives them a half decent B+ rating, if i recall correctly.

The CPC not taking this poll seriously would be extremely foolish, especially in regards to their plummeting support in Atlantic Canada. Atlantic Canadians clearly aren’t buying the CPC’s anti Carney attack ads.

Clearly, there existed a huge number of voters in Atlantic Canada that supported the CPC because they opposed Trudeau, that are now supporting the LPC because they now see Pierre Poilievre as the least desirable option. Moreover, Carney is seen as the best suited to deal with Trump on issues of trade and Canadian sovereignty, which have quickly supplanted the carbon tax and opposition to JT as the primary issues of this election. PP is the worst option we have for dealing with Trump.

[BlackDog204]

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Yet, “Drunk Franky’s” team is still “getting on base” in the aggregate. The gold standard of Canadian polling analysis isn’t removing EKOS’s data from their model, despite the mainly claims of bias against them, and still gives them a half decent B+ rating, if i recall correctly.

The CPC not taking this poll seriously would be extremely foolish, especially in regards to their plummeting support in Atlantic Canada. Atlantic Canadians clearly aren’t buying the CPC’s anti Carney attack ads.

Clearly, there existed a huge number of voters in Atlantic Canada that supported the CPC because they opposed Trudeau, that are now supporting the LPC because they now see Pierre Poilievre as the least desirable option. Moreover, Carney is seen as the best suited to deal with Trump on issues of trade and Canadian sovereignty, which have quickly supplanted the carbon tax and opposition to JT as the primary issues of this election. PP is the worst option we have for dealing with Trump.

B+ is not something to be happy about when the lowest overall grade 338 have are B-, and other than Forum Research, all agencies rated lower than EKOS/Forum are provincial focused agencies. EKOS might actually be rated closer to B or B- if they didn't get Alberta right in 2023.

You don't exclude agencies from your models, but that doesn't mean you believe the results. I can tell you the folks who run 338 don't believe that poll is anywhere near realistic, but when it's officially released it'll probably be added to the model. The last EKOS didn't get added though, as the blend of questions and responses lumped together into a top line made it impossible to use.

You seem to put a lot of weight into this poll because it shows exactly what you want to see. And you're making quite a few broad comments on Atlantic Canada based on it too. I can show a poll which has the Conservatives ahead (but technically tied) in Atlantic Canada that released yesterday too. They oversampled ATL as well is nice to see.

Those who put their faith in drunk Frankie are bound to be disappointed. Leger should be releasing their full report sometime today, I'd have a lot more confidence in their numbers. They might very well have the Liberals around 50% in ATL, but it actually means something when they report it.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

B+ is not something to be happy about when the lowest overall grade 338 have are B-, and other than Forum Research, all agencies rated lower than EKOS/Forum are provincial focused agencies. EKOS might actually be rated closer to B or B- if they didn't get Alberta right in 2023.

You don't exclude agencies from your models, but that doesn't mean you believe the results. I can tell you the folks who run 338 don't believe that poll is anywhere near realistic, but when it's officially released it'll probably be added to the model. The last EKOS didn't get added though, as the blend of questions and responses lumped together into a top line made it impossible to use.

You seem to put a lot of weight into this poll because it shows exactly what you want to see. And you're making quite a few broad comments on Atlantic Canada based on it too. I can show a poll which has the Conservatives ahead (but technically tied) in Atlantic Canada that released yesterday too. They oversampled ATL as well is nice to see.

Those who put their faith in drunk Frankie are bound to be disappointed. Leger should be releasing their full report sometime today, I'd have a lot more confidence in their numbers. They might very well have the Liberals around 50% in ATL, but it actually means something when they report it.

Who cares?

[Marty_Mcfly]

Check out this guy. You irritated by my posting?

It's not going to stop so learn to deal with it.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

It is an EKOS poll, but take it with a grain of salt. Especially since Frankie deleted the tweets showing the poll a few minutes after he posted it. I think the poll may be incomplete. And if it's not, it's a completely busted poll.

Unless you believe the Bloc, Greens, and NDP will combine for 2 total seats in the upcoming election.

Leger is releasing the details of their poll tomorrow which has the national topline at a 37-37 tie. I'd pay more attention to that than whatever drunk Frankie is pushing.

Every EKOS poll should be taken with a grain of salt haha.

With that said, EKOS was the first poll in late January to show a significant drop in Conservative support. Every pollster was showing a 25-30 point CPC lead with no end in sight. EKOS comes out and shows a huge shift to the LPC. They were attacked and humiliated. Fast forward 60 days later and have the gold standard Leger showing a national tie.

So even though EKOS isn't the greatest, they are still somewhat reputable. Just take it with a grain of salt.

Btw, Mainstreet will be out with a new national poll on Friday. Im hearing so far they have the LPC leading ON by 10 points FWIW.

[MolsonExport]

I figure that the part of the support that was previously behind Poilievre was rather soft. It was more a matter of Trudeau-fatigue (and outright anger at him and his policies).

Trudeau is going, the carbon tax is going, and Trump has declared economic warfare on Canada, with the intention of annexation. Different leadership qualities are needed, when we as a nation are facing an existential threat like nothing we have seen in many generations.

The times, they are a-changin'.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Huge Bloc collapse if accurate! As Marty and others have said, though: let's see if other polls confirm.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Every EKOS poll should be taken with a grain of salt haha.

With that said, EKOS was the first poll in late January to show a significant drop in Conservative support. Every pollster was showing a 25-30 point CPC lead with no end in sight. EKOS comes out and shows a huge shift to the LPC. They were attacked and humiliated. Fast forward 60 days later and have the gold standard Leger showing a national tie.

So even though EKOS isn't the greatest, they are still somewhat reputable. Just take it with a grain of salt.

Btw, Mainstreet will be out with a new national poll on Friday. Im hearing so far they have the LPC leading ON by 10 points FWIW.

I always like to say that EKOS has shown us 12 of the last 1 Liberal rebounds. He's been trying to spin the rebound narrative for quite some time now, and was finally right about it.

It was no wonder that no one believed them though when he first showed the bounce back. He was trying to sell us Liberal comeback polls back in the spring and summer that never materialized, or were never matched by anyone else.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Speaking of Leger, their report has released.

These regionals seem much more normal. They're still an absolute disaster for the NDP though, sheesh. I think 11% in BC is really pushing them towards losing party status territory.

https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Leger-CAN_-10-March-2025_Voting_intentions-v2.pdf

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Huge Bloc collapse if accurate! As Marty and others have said, though: let's see if other polls confirm.

I found the results a little too optimistic for the Liberals. Frank is getting a ton of online hate for that one.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

I found the results a little too optimistic for the Liberals. Frank is getting a ton of online hate for that one.

EKOS seems to chronically underestimate the Bloc (and also the PQ I believe) more than any other pollster. Mainstreet also often underestimates sovereignist parties for some reason.

[Takeoff]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Every EKOS poll should be taken with a grain of salt haha.

With that said, EKOS was the first poll in late January to show a significant drop in Conservative support. Every pollster was showing a 25-30 point CPC lead with no end in sight. EKOS comes out and shows a huge shift to the LPC. They were attacked and humiliated. Fast forward 60 days later and have the gold standard Leger showing a national tie.

So even though EKOS isn't the greatest, they are still somewhat reputable. Just take it with a grain of salt.

Btw, Mainstreet will be out with a new national poll on Friday. Im hearing so far they have the LPC leading ON by 10 points FWIW.

If the Ontario polling is true then that’s absolutely damming for the conservatives and puts the Liberals in the majority territory. I think we might be watching the Hudakification of Poilievre in real time.

[D-dog]

Can someone please explain to me why the Molson dude banned me?

You have received a warning at SkyscraperPage Forum
Dear D-dog,

You have received a warning at SkyscraperPage Forum.

Reason:
-------
Inappropriate Language

I warned you. Next time, it will be a suspension.
-------

Original Post:
https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=10382411
Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by MolsonExport View Post
Forum users should refrain from lumping people into a broad group as a means of trolling and eliciting a response by belittling them. Your post is an example of transphobia, and whatever your private opinion is on the matter, such postings are not acceptable here. Final warning.
I apologize if you felt I was trolling. Obviously the first thing that comes out is I am transphobic because I feel dudes don't belong in women's sports or bathrooms... With all due respect, give your head a shake!
Warnings serve as a reminder to you of the forum's rules, which you are expected to understand and follow.

All the best,
SkyscraperPage Forum