Canadian Federal Election

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Acajack

We are inexorably heading towards a Canada where the major parties put forward candidates for PM that don't speak French, but it's still some distance away in the future. So that would likely rule out Doug Ford as you say.

Back to the future ....

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Ford doesn't even have a high school diploma. I don't see him as an academic willing to do a deep dive to rapid-learn french.

If the average correctional guard becoming a manager can do it so could Ford. Just a question of motivation. Granted Carney doesn't seem to have bothered despite having that target over the past 2+ years.

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Ford needs to have a foil in Ottawa. Likely the LPC does well with a PC in Toronto too. Both closer to centre than Trudeau and PP.

Surely just getting another strong majority if he had any ideological bent he'd be fine with a Con govt in Ottawa.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

If the average correctional guard becoming a manager can do it so could Ford. Just a question of motivation. Granted Carney doesn't seem to have bothered despite having that target over the past 2+ years.



Surely just getting another strong majority if he had any ideological bent he'd be fine with a Con govt in Ottawa.

Carney speaks decent bureaucrat French. It will improve over time, now that he's obliged to use it regularly. That should be enough.

[wg_flamip]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

Ford wants Pierre to fail, he wants his job.

Ford wants Poilievre to fail because personal relationships matter more to him than ideological purity. He's been able to work fairly well with Trudeau, who's regularly provided funding to projects that are important to him. He's also worked quite well with Chow here in Toronto, despite a few notable disagreements (while I wouldn't call the Ford and Layton/Chow families friends, they're mostly friendly on a personal level despite their ideological differences).

There's nothing inherently wrong with this. The problem is that personal relationships also matter more to Ford than good governance (cf. relationships with various developers, etc.), and this may cause him quite a bit of trouble in the coming years. He also appears to have put minimal effort into building relationships outside of an hour's drive from his Etobicoke home.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Given the inefficiency of Conservative votes (blow out victories in AB & SK), this looks like another Liberal victory, probably a minority.

The Conservatives won the popular vote in the last two elections too, but still lost the elections.

The regionals for this weeks Nanos were actually decent for the conservatives; still CPC +11 in Ontario and CPC +13 in British Columbia. They have the Liberals running up huge numbers in Atlantic Canada, and to a lesser extent, Quebec.

Not sure if that's good enough to squeak a CPC majority out, not likely, but the Liberal voter efficiency isn't quite back with those regional numbers.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by casper

Fundamental Liberal policies. The Liberals are willing to pick winners and losers in the economy. They have no issue cutting deals with the auto sector to ensure we have a manufacturing back in Canada. The same for aviation. The same for defence. Liberals are willing to have government build piplines.

The Conservative policies is more free market, lower taxes and they will come. That is not going to work.

The Liberals are in year 10 of this government. Is it working yet?

[casper]

Originally Posted by theman23

The Liberals are in year 10 of this government. Is it working yet?

Yes, it is.

In the case where government is involved, Alberta has a new pipeline to get oil to the pacific. The auto-sector in Alberta has a series of battery plants in stages of development. Host of clean-energy projects, many owned by first-nations communities across the country. In the last two years a host of for-profit and not-for-profit housing projects across the country that had loan guarantees from government. VIA rail has replaced a good amount of their fleet. A host of other smaller projects.

Had the conservatives been in power not of that would have happened.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

That's Poilievre's line to explain it away but Ford doesn't speak a word of French and must know he has no real chance without that?

The only Conservative majority win in over 35 years had them win 5 seats in Quebec. There are now 35 more seats since that election, 32 of them outside of Quebec. I doubt much of the rest of the country cares if the PM speaks French well, or at all.

[travis3000]

Fresh Leger Poll
March 7th-10th

CPC= 37%
LPC= 37%
NDP= 11%

https://www.biv.com/news/economy-law-pol...-a-dead-heat-new-poll-indicates-10359851

[theman23]

Originally Posted by casper

Yes, it is.

In the case where government is involved, Alberta has a new pipeline to get oil to the pacific. The auto-sector in Alberta has a series of battery plants in stages of development. Host of clean-energy projects, many owned by first-nations communities across the country. In the last two years a host of for-profit and not-for-profit housing projects across the country that had loan guarantees from government. VIA rail has replaced a good amount of their fleet. A host of other smaller projects.

Had the conservatives been in power not of that would have happened.

You seem to be conflating announcements with accomplishments, again. The only thing actually accomplished for this list if the pipeline and the VIA rail fleet replacement, the latter of which will have absolutely no impact on economic output.

Carney himself has attacked the LPC track record on the economy, arguing that Canada is more susceptible to USA tariffs because of LPC mismanagement over the last 10 years. Who are you to argue with him?

[someone123]

Originally Posted by theman23

You seem to be conflating announcements with accomplishments, again. The only thing actually accomplished for this list if the pipeline and the VIA rail fleet replacement, the latter of which will have absolutely no impact on economic output.

And at the end of the day even if they were all implemented they fit into the overall context of poor productivity, economic growth, and affordability in this country.

They are more like evasive talking points than clear argumentation.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by someone123

And at the end of the day even if they were all implemented they fit into the overall context of poor productivity, economic growth, and affordability in this country.

They are more like evasive talking points than clear argumentation.

The Liberals just elected a leader in a landslide who has spoken clearly about what a failure their economic policy has been over the last 10 years. Casper still has a lifetime subscription for Justin Trudeau pajamas though, so it's probably not realistic to expect him to ever abandon his support.

Carney has done well to acknowledge the problem. Now he needs to actually present a solution beyond rehashing forgotten JT slogans from 2015 ("invest not spend").

[LuluBobo]

Sounds like Carney will be sworn in on Thursday.

Election called this weekend?

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by LuluBobo

Sounds like Carney will be sworn in on Thursday.

Election called this weekend?

Calling an election before a Speech from the Throne seems like a missed opportunity to me.

[BlackDog204]

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by theman23

Carney has done well to acknowledge the problem. Now he needs to actually present a solution beyond rehashing forgotten JT slogans from 2015 ("invest not spend").

What matters most to the Casper boomers is to keep the housing bubble going at all costs. On this point, it appears Carney is quite happy to play along. With all other options to grow the economy exhausted, it looks like Carney is quite willing to roll out preferred CMHC rates to foreigners, and continue the Vancouverization of Canada. Screw young people, the real estate gains held by Casper boomers must be protected at all costs.

Canada’s Next PM Working w/Vancouver “Condo King” On Foreign Investment
https://betterdwelling.com/canadas-next-pm-working-w-vancouver-condo-king-on-foreign-investment/

No wonder slumlords, real estate speculords and real estate agents are head over heels for Carney.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Calling an election before a Speech from the Throne seems like a missed opportunity to me.

It would be much more preferable for the Liberals to call the election themselves then to go back to Parliament and lose a confidence vote. Plus every week they're not in a campaign right now is a week where they risk losing their momentum. Time is not a positive for a 10-year-old government.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

It would be much more preferable for the Liberals to call the election themselves then to go back to Parliament and lose a confidence vote. Plus every week they're not in a campaign right now is a week where they risk losing their momentum. Time is not a positive for a 10-year-old government.

There would be no opportunity for a vote of non-confidence. Immediately after the Speech from the Throne, the PM would ask the GG to dissolve Parliament and call an election. At least that's what I would do in his situation.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Is this an Ekos poll? Either way, this is a pretty staggering poll for the CPC in Atlantic Canada.


Looks like CPC support in Atlantic Canada has been absolutely decimated by the ongoing trade war and existential crisis brought on by Trump. I guess PP and the CPC are just too similar to Trump and the Republicans for a lot of voters in Atlantic Canada.

It was the stuff of fantasy to suggest the Liberals could win a riding like Saint John—St. Croix, not even a month ago… it’s now looking like an entirely plausible result, along with many other ridings across Atlantic Canada that we’re considered solidly blue a very short while ago.



I think Carney could end up naming Saint John MP, Wayne Long, the next Minister of Transport in the upcoming cabinet shuffle. Long was one of the first MP’s to call for Trudeau’s resignation, and he played a major role in signing up and verifying voters in Saint John, which resulted in Saint John—Kennebecasis having the highest support for Carney of any riding in Atlantic Canada (Over 90%). Such a move could further build upon this historic swell of support in Atlantic Canada, and help the Liberals win two ridings that were considered unwinnable two months ago.

He’s also the right type of sloganeering campaigner take up the fight for Canada in this trade war/ existential crisis brought on by Trump. I may be reading too much into this photo op, but as far as I know, it was one of the only major visits Carney made to a Canadian port during the leadership race.

This a historic, never before seen shift in support among Atlantic Canadian voters. To see CPC support dip below that of the NDP (a party which doesn’t hold a single seat in Atlantic Canada) is nothing short of astonishing. The Carney bump seems to be the real deal.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

There would be no opportunity for a vote of non-confidence. Immediately after the Speech from the Throne, the PM would ask the GG to dissolve Parliament and call an election. At least that's what I would do in his situation.

Not how it works. The Speech from the Throne will immediately be followed by a vote of confidence because the session of parliament follows a prorogation. They won't be able to give a speech and just walk away from the house without hearing from anyone else.

https://www.mccarthy.ca/en/insights/articles/prorogation-parliament-what-you-need-know