Canadian Federal Election

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Ipsos is now the first major polling firm to project a LPC victory in the upcoming election.

Clearly, the Canadian electorate sees a clear correlation between PP, the CPC, The Republican Party, and Donald Trump.

We are quite possibly witnessing the greatest turnaround in Canadian history, with parallels to the 1979 and 1980 elections wrapped up into one.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Curmudgeon

^^^

Don't be too concerned. Once Canadians get to know who Carney is they'll reject him. Remember how the state media fawned over Ignatieff in the beginning? Boy, he was the second coming. Short lived.

Yeah and Scheer had a steady lead before the Writ was dropped in 2019. Equally irrelevant.

If we have 25% tariffs or another month extension it's hard to see the Cons winning a majority and even a minority would require a good campaign.

Poilievre is likely to land some one liners in a debate and especially in the French debate but a the end of the day in a crisis the resumes are likely to look pretty one sided in favor of Carney.

[Architype]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Ipsos is now the first major polling firm to project a LPC victory in the upcoming election.

Clearly, the Canadian electorate sees a clear correlation between PP, the CPC, The Republican Party, and Donald Trump.

We are quite possibly witnessing the greatest turnaround in Canadian history, with parallels to the 1979 and 1980 elections wrapped up into one.

Percentages (popular vote) alone don't tell the story because of geographic vote distribution, it's the seat count that counts. It can still change drastically, and the people who say we haven't really got to know Carney yet are correct. However, the CPC needs a higher percentage to win, and as things get worse with Trump, it's likely to give more support to the Liberals.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Yeah and Scheer had a steady lead before the Writ was dropped in 2019. Equally irrelevant.

If we have 25% tariffs or another month extension it's hard to see the Cons winning a majority and even a minority would require a good campaign.

Poilievre is likely to land some one liners in a debate and especially in the French debate but a the end of the day in a crisis the resumes are likely to look pretty one sided in favour of Carney.

Maybe the aim should be for Mark Carney to land some one liners in the French debate? I don’t think his French is nearly as bad as some people are trying to claim it is… you gotta imagine he’s got some next level French tutors and debate coaches that are going to give him the boost he needs to stay on message in the French debate.

If Carney has to defer to English a few times in the French debate it’s not going to hurt him with voters in the middle, especially not if he stays on message in French and shows respect for the French language and the intelligence of Quebec voters.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Maybe the aim should be for Mark Carney to land some one liners in the French debate? I don’t think his French is nearly as bad as some people are trying to claim it is… you gotta imagine he’s got some next level French tutors and debate coaches that are going to give him the boost he needs to stay on message in the French debate.

If Carney has to defer to English a few times in the French debate it’s not going to hurt him with voters in the middle, especially not if he stays on message in French and shows respect for the French language and the intelligence of Quebec voters.

Quebec is a different beast but my inclination is he should focus on not making any gaffes even if he ignores the questions or attacks from Poilievre. If Poilievre attacks him for carbon value added taxes on aluminum he can just reply with his memorized lines rather than get into a complicated debate. Debate prep is very possible. Kamala hit it out of the park by memorizing a lot of good answers. He can do the same even in French. A few stump speeches on key issues and holding his own in the debate is all that matters at this point. Working on French a few hours a day and debate prep should be most of his day at this point. There won't be as much time once he is PM if he gets dragged into everything that will seem more important. Another reason the leave Trudeau as PM and call an election on the 10th idea is interesting.

[janbe74]

If I am Mark Carney I call a 36 day election ASAP.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by janbe74

If I am Mark Carney I call a 36 day election ASAP.

He definitely has to strike while the iron is hot

[janbe74]

Originally Posted by Wigs

He definitely has to strike while the iron is hot

Get rid of the carbon tax day one then called an election.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by Architype

Percentages (popular vote) alone don't tell the story because of geographic vote distribution, it's the seat count that counts. It can still change drastically, and the people who say we haven't really got to know Carney yet are correct. However, the CPC needs a higher percentage to win, and as things get worse with Trump, it's likely to give more support to the Liberals.

If the Conservatives win the most seats but not a majority, the Liberals are given the first shot at trying to form a minority governments so as long as the other parties support the liberals it will still be a liberal minority government. So if the conservatives don't win a majority it will be a liberal minority government no matter how many seats the conservative get.

As always the government who ever the majority of MP's support regardless of party seat count.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Nite

If the Conservatives win the most seats but not a majority, the Liberals are given the first shot at trying to form a minority governments so as long as the other parties support the liberals it will still be a liberal minority government. So if the conservatives don't win a majority it will be a liberal minority government no matter how many seats the conservative get.

As always the government who ever the majority of MP's support regardless of party seat count.

Yeah unlike 2008 the inertia goes to the Liberals. This will be yet another shocking lesson in Canadian civics for the Convoy crowd. The convention would be to give the Conservatives a chance but I think we all know the Conservatives wouldn't respect that at this point.

[janbe74]

The way things are looking it's likely that we will have a Liberal minority government.

This Mark Carney's election to lose. And he can certainly lose the election for the Liberals at by himself.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by missing_middle

For a guy who has a only been in the arena for about a month, a pattern is already emerging of mistruths and exaggeration from Carney:

Add this recent one where he claims that "Canada is the largest supplier of semiconductors to the US":

https://x.com/sjefferies73/status/1896589122732740713/video/2

Either he doesn't know what a semiconductor is or is just randomly making facts up.

The guy's an economist and formerly an investment banker. This really should be something right up in his wheelhouse, so I'm struggling to think about what he could have meant here. Was he speaking about the raw materials needed for semiconductors? Even then, it doesn't appear to be close to fact.

[casper]

Originally Posted by janbe74

Get rid of the carbon tax day one then called an election.

I would agree with that.

Speech from the throne that basically say, "Time is of the essence, my government has only one bill to pass, provide emergency relief and stimulus due to the tariffs, including suspension of carbon tax."

Add in some stimulus spending on infrastructure to support international trade with non-US partners. Some extensions to EI and financing for small business.

That is all that is needed.

Let the conservative vote against it.

[Hackslack]

Originally Posted by casper

I would agree with that.

Speech from the throne that basically say, "Time is of the essence, my government has only one bill to pass, provide emergency relief and stimulus due to the tariffs, including suspension of carbon tax."

Add in some stimulus spending on infrastructure to support international trade with non-US partners. Some extensions to EI and financing for small business.

That is all that is needed.

Let the conservative vote against it.

Or vote for it… then wait till October for the scheduled election

That would be a classic Liberal move though, try to buy votes right before an election.

[Hackslack]

Originally Posted by theman23

The guy's an economist and formerly an investment banker. This really should be something right up in his wheelhouse, so I'm struggling to think about what he could have meant here. Was he speaking about the raw materials needed for semiconductors? Even then, it doesn't appear to be close to fact.

He’s taking Canadians for being fools. An investment banker and economist saying consumer prices don’t increase when he taxes upstream industry? Come on! Like, as if the cost doesn’t trickle down to the end consumer? Is that not Econ 101? When was the last time you bought steel at the store Bob?

[Loco101]

Canada 338's federal election outcome with recent polls:

CPC: 160

LPC: 139

BQ: 28

NDP: 14

GPC: 2

https://338canada.com/



I really don't know how the next federal election will turn out but it sure does seem that many voters are focused only on the LPC and CPC. The Ontario provincial election showed that in Ontario very few voters wanted change. Incumbents did very well. So that doesn't bode well for the CPC.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

He’s taking Canadians for being fools. An investment banker and economist saying consumer prices don’t increase when he taxes upstream industry? Come on! Like, as if the cost doesn’t trickle down to the end consumer? Is that not Econ 101? When was the last time you bought steel at the store Bob?

Prices are not going to up when you leave a tax alone. No one is talking about adding new taxes. The "upstream industry" tax your talking about is already in place.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by casper

Prices are not going to up when you leave a tax alone. No one is talking about adding new taxes. The "upstream industry" tax your talking about is already in place.

He didn't say that. Perhaps he was trying to solidify the eco-nut vote by pretending there would still be climate action by removing the consumer tax and maintaining the industrial carbon tax. But he said it won't impact consumers as we don't purchase steel. He isn't an experienced enough politician to be able to obfuscate so is better off being more direct. We will remove the carbon tax and not replace it in the short term but discuss other incentives to help us reach our climate goals.

[Marshsparrow]

In the recent Pierre P press conference - listen to his words very carefully - he does not denounce Trump directly. He did not call him out on Zelensky treatment Friday. On the tariffs he spent more time blaming Carney and Trudeau...

[casper]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

In the recent Pierre P press conference - listen to his words very carefully - he does not denounce Trump directly. He did not call him out on Zelensky treatment Friday. On the tariffs he spent more time blaming Carney and Trudeau...

We know PP is very sympathetic to Trump. He you be following in the footsteps of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Two provinces that keep leaning towards to retaliation because in principle they don't like the idea of tariffs.

Carney should start calling him out on his Ukraine stance.