Statistics Canada Reports II

[Airboy]

Originally Posted by ciudad_del_norte

Provincial electoral boundaries are set to be redrawn before the next election and could have a substantial impact on outcome. Additional seats in Edmonton are definitely a liability for the UCP, and while they generally have a better chance in Calgary , an increase in seats there is hardly as safe as it once was.

Population growth in itself wont change things as much, but how that growth is grouped together will probably decide the next Alberta election. This could also change some of the smaller city cities to either competitive, or safe NDP.

Federally though - I don't see too much of an impact. The liberal brand is far too damaged in the province to be competitive in more than 1-2 ridings in either city, there just isn't enough of a base for an influx to make a difference. The NDP has become increasingly competitive in Edmonton but I think weird things can happen if new residents aren't acclimated to the 2 party thinking that dominates most of the province.

There is a long term shift though, both Edmonton and Calgary are trending more towards the North American norm of Urban vs. Rural voting patterns. Edmonton started to the left of the province so it is more obvious, but Calgary has also changed a lot. Migration is centralizing more population and political power into the cities, but even more impactful is probably the underlying ideology shift for a lot of people that grew up in the province.

Even though our boundaries are supposed to be nonpartisan planning I expect to see the new boundaries will cut out rural portions of the urban ridings. Create more rural ridings at the cost of Edmonton and Calgary ridings. Hell we may see Lethbridge cut up.