Quote:
Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca
For the last few years about 85% of Alberta's growth has been going to the two cities, with about 50% going to Calgary. Growth for 2023 was 53% going to Calgary, 34% to Edmonton and 14% to the rest of the province. I don't have the stats handy, but it was about the same for 2024 as well.
I'm hoping it'll change the political landscape, but time will tell.
Edit: Found the numbers for 2024, and much the same, except Edmonton increasing and the rest of the province decreasing. Of Alberta's 186K growth in 2024, Calgary 54%, Edmonton 38%, rest of province 8% |
Provincial electoral boundaries are set to be redrawn before the next election and could have a substantial impact on outcome. Additional seats in Edmonton are definitely a liability for the UCP, and while they generally have a better chance in Calgary , an increase in seats there is hardly as safe as it once was.
Population growth in itself wont change things as much, but how that growth is grouped together will probably decide the next Alberta election. This could also change some of the smaller city cities to either competitive, or safe NDP.
Federally though - I don't see too much of an impact. The liberal brand is far too damaged in the province to be competitive in more than 1-2 ridings in either city, there just isn't enough of a base for an influx to make a difference. The NDP has become increasingly competitive in Edmonton but I think weird things can happen if new residents aren't acclimated to the 2 party thinking that dominates most of the province.
There is a long term shift though, both Edmonton and Calgary are trending more towards the North American norm of Urban vs. Rural voting patterns. Edmonton started to the left of the province so it is more obvious, but Calgary has also changed a lot. Migration is centralizing more population and political power into the cities, but even more impactful is probably the underlying ideology shift for a lot of people that grew up in the province.
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