Canadian Federal Election

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by trueviking

Hilarious is conservative apologists pretending that the greatest existential threat to our country isn’t impacting voter intentions. To equate what is happening today to Kim Campbell and John Turner is fool hearty and ignoring a pretty strong reality.

What is even more foolhardy is thinking Trump would respect or care about anything a technocrat like Carney would say.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

Any chance you can post the latest Nanos?

Initially Liberal gains were coming at the expense of the NDP and Bloc, but this weeks polls show they are now coming from the Conservatives as well.
If the liberals take 3 more points from the conservatives like they did last week, they will be in Majority territory.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by trueviking

Liberals have far more efficient vote. Getting landslide victories in two provinces racks up the votes but not the seats for Cons.

Indeed. Let's just look at the Conservative vote share and seat count in Alberta and Saskatchewan in the last three federal elections.

2015

AB 59.5% 29/34 seats
SK 48.5% 10/14 seats

2019

AB 69% 33/34 seats
SK 64% 14/14 seats

2021

AB 55.3% 30/34 seats
SK 59% 14/14 seats

.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

From what I have seen, PP and the Conservatives have only mentioned once how they would retaliate against Trump, which is good. The problem is, 90% of the time, they are going on about "Carbon Tax Carney" which is incredibly tone deaf.

In terms of issues of importance, it barely registers with most voters, in comparison with the threats by the Trump Administration. The Liberals are knocking it out of the park, with their ads noting the similarities between PP and Trump, and this is precisely why the Conservatives blew a 27 point lead.

I predicted about a year ago that PP would be in trouble if Trump won for those exact reasons.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Hilarious to see the Lib apologists claiming victory. Look up other leaders who took over after dumping an unpopular leader. Such as John Tuner after Trudeau Sr or Kim Campbell after Mulroney. Both got a bounce in the polls before voters bounced them from government.

Now you are so desperate to believe PP is not going to get trounced in the election, you go back 40 years to dig up an example that is not at all the same. Enjoy your Conservative minority.

[casper]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Hilarious to see the Lib apologists claiming victory. Look up other leaders who took over after dumping an unpopular leader. Such as John Tuner after Trudeau Sr or Kim Campbell after Mulroney. Both got a bounce in the polls before voters bounced them from government.

I for several weeks have said it is all in flex. We are not going to have a good picture until after the leadership race is over and we know what is happening with tariffs.

So Trump says 25% tariffs are coming next week. The white house is now saying perhaps not. Tomorrow is a new day and a chance to flip-flop again.

All said the current liberal government has been doing a good job over the last few weeks at crisis management. Even some conservative voters who despite JT are complementing how well he is handling the crisis.

Once Carney takes over next week I think we will see another bump for the Liberals.

While the conservatives still have a very good chance, they need to do something other than cute nicknames and recycled slogans from the Trump campaign. Even Danielle Smith is starting to learn that association with Trump is not a good move. There are some billboards popping up in Alberta with her and Trump that she is trying to distance herself from.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by whatnext

What is even more foolhardy is thinking Trump would respect or care about anything a technocrat like Carney would say.

Trump does not respect anyone, except bullies with power. So unless you are prepared to accept Canada spending 10% on our GDP on defence, and becoming a military economy, an acquiring the materials to have our own nuclear arsenal, you may as well get ready to accept the fact that Trump will hate anyone that's is PM of Canada.

Zelensky and the Ukrainians found this out the hard way.

[missing_middle]

I watched the debate and I wasn't overly impressed by Carney. He was surprisingly the least articulate/fluid in his responses out of the bunch imo. Not sure if that's due to bad debate strategy or he is just not that good at quickly articulating thoughts in an impromptu setting. Not sure that style of Carney would hold up well in a debate against Polievere.

Actually thought the Baylis guy had the most interesting answers overall.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by whatnext

What is even more foolhardy is thinking Trump would respect or care about anything a technocrat like Carney would say.

What's foolish is thinking that Trump cares who the PM is. Sure, he's annoyed by Trudeau. But taking away that annoyance doesn't mean he'll suddenly be enamoured.

He is thinking a lot like Putin. And the offer to Canada is simple: We can be America's Belarus or America's Ukraine.

[Marshsparrow]

Erin O'Toole or Jean Charest or Patrick Brown are looking pretty good right now... too bad for the Conservatives...

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

What's foolish is thinking that Trump cares who the PM is. Sure, he's annoyed by Trudeau. But taking away that annoyance doesn't mean he'll suddenly be enamoured.

He is thinking a lot like Putin. And the offer to Canada is simple: We can be America's Belarus or America's Ukraine.

Poillievre = Lukashenko.

I like the comparison.

[Hackslack]

It would actually be funny if the Libs continued to Lose support to the Cons throughout the last 4 weeks, considering they have been dominating the airwaves with new life. It kind of reminds me of the Leafs going on a 3 week heater and the media and fans seem to already be planning the parade.

[ToxiK]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

What's foolish is thinking that Trump cares who the PM is. Sure, he's annoyed by Trudeau. But taking away that annoyance doesn't mean he'll suddenly be enamoured.

He is thinking a lot like Putin. And the offer to Canada is simple: We can be America's Belarus or America's Ukraine.

We could be America's Afghanistan.

Oh, wait...

[Marshsparrow]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

It would actually be funny if the Libs continued to Lose support to the Cons throughout the last 4 weeks, considering they have been dominating the airwaves with new life. It kind of reminds me of the Leafs going on a 3 week heater and the media and fans seem to already be planning the parade.

And we've had to watch and listen to Conservatives over the past 2 years appease the fringe, not build and expand the tent to build greater support and pretty much write off everyone as dead... not in the history of the world I would suspect we have seen polls shift so quickly... and now in panic mode they're even sloppier. But as quickly as the polls turned, they can turn back.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by casper

I for several weeks have said it is all in flex. We are not going to have a good picture until after the leadership race is over and we know what is happening with tariffs.

So Trump says 25% tariffs are coming next week. The white house is now saying perhaps not. Tomorrow is a new day and a chance to flip-flop again.

All said the current liberal government has been doing a good job over the last few weeks at crisis management. Even some conservative voters who despite JT are complementing how well he is handling the crisis.

Once Carney takes over next week I think we will see another bump for the Liberals.

While the conservatives still have a very good chance, they need to do something other than cute nicknames and recycled slogans from the Trump campaign. Even Danielle Smith is starting to learn that association with Trump is not a good move. There are some billboards popping up in Alberta with her and Trump that she is trying to distance herself from.

Agree. The election is still 1-2 months away. So much can happen by that time. Carney could easily crumble under scrutiny. Trump could lay off the tariff threats. Or it could go in the opposite direction. We are in unprecedented times right now. Nobody knows whats going to happen.

What we do know... the race is now competitive.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

What's foolish is thinking that Trump cares who the PM is. Sure, he's annoyed by Trudeau. But taking away that annoyance doesn't mean he'll suddenly be enamoured.

He is thinking a lot like Putin. And the offer to Canada is simple: We can be America's Belarus or America's Ukraine.

Pierre Poilievre might seem like a tough guy when he's condescending to small-town newspaper reporters with aggressive apple-eating. The idea that this will translate to the international arena, let alone with Trump, is ludicrous.

[Taeolas]

For the most part, while I'm happy to see the LPC rebound and the CPC crashing; my main take away is that we're well within Minority government territory, (whether Liberal or Conservative remains to be seen) and I'm happy with that.

The last thing I wanted was a CPC Majority with all the power and lack of checks it comes with, especially with PP's style of conservatism in play.

If Carney can miraculously pull off a Liberal Minority government after all this, I'll admit I'll be ecstatic. If he can "only" hold PP to a minority, probably a weak minority, then I'll be satisfied that PP will have some checks in place to hold him back.

[samne]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

Pierre Poilievre might seem like a tough guy when he's condescending to small-town newspaper reporters with aggressive apple-eating. The idea that this will translate to the international arena, let alone with Trump, is ludicrous.

Of course, because the Liberals have done so well dealing with Trump up until now, might as well continue.

The CPC are pro business, this would work better along with the same in the US as opposed to the socialist Carney-Trudeau Liberals at this point in time.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by samne

Of course, because the Liberals have done so well dealing with Trump up until now, might as well continue.

The CPC are pro business, this would work better along with the same in the US as opposed to the socialist Carney-Trudeau Liberals at this point in time.

No one is going to do well with Trump unless they're willing to prostrate themsleves before him. There is no negotiating; he is an egotist and bully who values only obeisance (to him) and power.

Also I'm sorry but the idea that Mark Carney is a "socalist" is proof that the word has lost all meaning in certain conservative circles.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by whatnext

What is even more foolhardy is thinking Trump would respect or care about anything a technocrat like Carney would say.

you think trump would change his economic policy because Poilievre wears slogans on his clothing like he does?....or do you think he will respect him more because he has never had a job of any kind?

Trump is going to be Trump...we need someone who can steer the Canadian ship through those choppy waters....The guy with no experience at literally anything but politics isn't the guy...Pierre....he's just not ready.