Canadian Federal Election

[savevp]

Originally Posted by Hecate

See carney knows all those people, as his sister in law is good friends with Ghislaine.

Who the hell cares?

[Hecate]

Originally Posted by savevp

Who the hell cares?

People with standards would!

Again it’s more the double standard… it’s okay to post pictures of her with trump to show how awful he is, meanwhile they’re all running in the same circle.

[Hecate]

I’ll tell you this, if it was Pierre in that pic with her instead of carney, I wouldn’t vote for him.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Hecate

I’ll tell you this, if it was Pierre in that pic with her instead of carney, I wouldn’t vote for him.

So you're a single issue voter, and any 3rd degree association with Ghislaine is that single issue?

Democracy!

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Wow, can you imagine someone saying these kind of poll numbers could be possible for the Liberals 2 months ago? They'd be laughed off the forum.

Oh, how quickly things can change in politics... and what a difference a month makes.

If the NDP keeps its solidly orange ridings, and would be NDP voters vote Liberal, the 10 or 12 or so NDP seats could once again find themselves holding the balance of power. For all the talk about Singh being an ineffective leader, his NDP has held more political power in the past 5 years than either Jack Layton or Thomas Mulcair held with 50+ and 100+ seat totals. The last thing the NDP wants to do is spend too much time attacking Carney and the Liberals, when the real threat to the relevancy to their party is Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative party.

I think Singh does get this to some extend, but he still has to play the "seat count" game with the NDP base. Personally, I think the NDP would be better off focussing their campaign funds on some key races to keep their party above ten, but not try and vote split too much in Ontario, which only helps the CPC. Time will tell what Singh and the NDP will do, and what the next PM will do when parliament resumes.

[savevp]

^
On some level, I think a lot of people knew there would be a sizeable bump once Trudeau took his walk, given how deeply unlikeable Poilievre is as a character. Obviously no one could have predicted the Trump-effect and the introduction of a common enemy. Also less predictable was how much of the Liberal growth would come out of the NDP, though perhaps that shouldn't have been surprising given how hapless they are lately.

Did anyone catch the English language debate? I had been tuned in, but my hind brain got the better of me and I flipped to the scintillating Leafs game. Keen to hear how folks thought Carney did. Baylis too, out of interest.

[Hackslack]

Looking at the numbers, maybe I am interpreting it wrong, but seems that the Libs are gaining support from the NDP and BQ, not from CPC support jumping ship to the Libs. I’m making that assumption based on the + assigned to the CPC from each of the polls, which I suspect is getting support from PPC… so it’s not so much that people don’t despise PP, rather, the left leaning supporter prefer Carney over Singh.

[samne]

I don’t understand how the Liberals can have higher poll numbers but yet Conservatives are still projected to win a majority.

[savevp]

Originally Posted by samne

I don’t understand how the Liberals can have higher poll numbers but yet Conservatives are still projected to win a majority.

Vote efficiency; Liberals get strong support from lots of people in relatively few (mostly urban) ridings.

[Docere]

The Liberals generally have a more efficient vote. The CPC really run up the numbers in the Prairies (getting 70% in AB/SK vs. "only" 55% doesn't really move that many seats).

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by samne

I don’t understand how the Liberals can have higher poll numbers but yet Conservatives are still projected to win a majority.

It’s because 338canada is an average of historic polls so it doesn’t track faster moving trends very well. In time it will catch up but right now polls from two months ago are still part of the algorithm. It also does not use any polls that hypothesize Carney as the leader.

[Hackslack]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Any chance you can post the latest Nanos?

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

Looking at the numbers, maybe I am interpreting it wrong, but seems that the Libs are gaining support from the NDP and BQ, not from CPC support jumping ship to the Libs. I’m making that assumption based on the + assigned to the CPC from each of the polls, which I suspect is getting support from PPC… so it’s not so much that people don’t despise PP, rather, the left leaning supporter prefer Carney over Singh.

That is for sure what is happening. Cons would have 35-40 percent of the vote even if they ran a slate of avocados in every riding. They will only ever move slightly up or down. Centrist and left of centre voters are coalescing around a candidate in an “anyone but Poillievre” rally.

This is why proportional representation would be catastrophic for Conservatives.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by savevp

Vote efficiency; Liberals get strong support from lots of people in relatively few (mostly urban) ridings.

Liberals have far more efficient vote. Getting landslide victories in two provinces racks up the votes but not the seats for Cons.

[whatnext]

Hilarious to see the Lib apologists claiming victory. Look up other leaders who took over after dumping an unpopular leader. Such as John Tuner after Trudeau Sr or Kim Campbell after Mulroney. Both got a bounce in the polls before voters bounced them from government.

[samne]

I prefer to go by Polymarket after how inaccurate polling has been in recent years.

According to Polymarket Pierre has slipped quite a bit(more than 10%), but still sizeable lead as odds of winning next election.

Pierre 61%
Carney 39%

https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minster-of-canada?tid=1740544824563

Carney was at 30% yesterday. I didn’t see it, but he must’ve had a good debate tonight.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by Hecate

Yeah that’s her. See carney knows all those people, as his sister in law is good friends with Ghislaine. Old schoolyard chums.

Fun to watch conservatives desperately scrape the barrel for anything they can find on carney. Running scared.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Hilarious to see the Lib apologists claiming victory. Look up other leaders who took over after dumping an unpopular leader. Such as John Tuner after Trudeau Sr or Kim Campbell after Mulroney. Both got a bounce in the polls before voters bounced them from government.

Hilarious is conservative apologists pretending that the greatest existential threat to our country isn’t impacting voter intentions. To equate what is happening today to Kim Campbell and John Turner is fool hearty and ignoring a pretty strong reality.

[Tvisforme]

Originally Posted by samne

I prefer to go by Polymarket after how inaccurate polling has been in recent years.

According to Polymarket Pierre has slipped quite a bit(more than 10%), but still sizeable lead as odds of winning next election.

Pierre 61%
Carney 39%
.
.
.

Per our previous conversation about your use of Polymarket, one should note for accuracy that Poilievre has "slipped quite a bit(more than 10%)" since you last posted Polymarket stats. When Polymarket began tracking Carney on January 12, Poilievre was at 86% and Carney was at 12%.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by samne

I prefer to go by Polymarket after how inaccurate polling has been in recent years.

According to Polymarket Pierre has slipped quite a bit(more than 10%), but still sizeable lead as odds of winning next election.

Pierre 61%
Carney 39%

https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minster-of-canada?tid=1740544824563

Carney was at 30% yesterday. I didn’t see it, but he must’ve had a good debate tonight.

lol. You prefer betting odds do you.