Canadian Federal Election

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Pronunciation aside he's probably closer to Baylis than Gould. He was very very bilingual. Dion is a different story. For English Canadians we don't really judge the ability to speak English but debates and interviews aren't graded with a handicap so if you can't perform which is pretty natural in your second language you suffer. Dion probably spoke English less fluently than anyone else who ever came close and he didn't really get that close to be honest. St. Laurent and Laurier had weird childhood exposures to English making them fluent.

Harper is probably far from the worst French speaker though even in the Radio/TV era.

Stephen Harper's French was better than Joe Clark's, for example.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Pronunciation aside he's probably closer to Baylis than Gould. He was very very bilingual.

Agreed, Chretien's English is definitely much closer to Baylis' French proficiency.

That's why the comment that Canadians had to "tolerate" Chretien's English is frankly an extreme exaggeration, and continues the streak of belittling the status of French in Canada.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Agreed, Chretien's English is definitely much closer to Baylis' French proficiency.

That's why the comment that Canadians had to "tolerate" Chretien's English is frankly an extreme exaggeration, and continues the streak of belittling the status of French in Canada.

You mean some people would actually do that?!?!?

[Airboy]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Stephen Harper's French was better than Joe Clark's, for example.

You guys never heard Diefenbaker butcher the french language.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Airboy

You guys never heard Diefenbaker butcher the french language.

"Vos veaux sont après chier."

(Vos voeux sont appréciés.)

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Agreed, Chretien's English is definitely much closer to Baylis' French proficiency.

That's why the comment that Canadians had to "tolerate" Chretien's English is frankly an extreme exaggeration, and continues the streak of belittling the status of French in Canada.

Ignore that comment. I don't know anybody who couldn't understand Chretien in English. Even my immigrant parents understood him just fine. This is just a meme about him butchering both languages. And it's mean one, based on his disability and resulting accent.

[Acajack]

An unknown quantity for the upcoming election:

Anti-Trudeau hate isn't nearly as strong in Quebec as it is in the ROC.

This isn't because Trudeau is incredibly popular here, but rather that anyone who hates him today already hated him in 2019 and 2015.

You don't have this large constituency like you have in the ROC where people may have supported him before the pandemic and have now turned sour on him and are very bitter.

Basically it's the separatists and nationalists that have always hated him and his father.

But there is also a rather large group in Quebec that will still support him because is the best foil to the separatists. You don't really have this existential consideration in the rest of the country.

I honestly don't know who this will advantage, BTW.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Quite impressed with Carney’s English. That gaffe might have helped him shore up the Arab Canadian vote in Quebec… especially if the other side tries to make that sound bite go viral. Look how much the “Holocaust Harris/Genocide Joe” labels hurt Kamala at the polls, over the single issue of Gaza. Carney’s hands, unlike Freeland’s are completely blameless in terms of Canadian government support to Israel during the height of hostilities in the Israel-Gaza war. Like it or not, there’s Canadian voters out there who are single issue voters in Gaza.

Obviously Carney does not support Hamas, but any attempt to try and make this sound byte go viral will likely end up blowing up in the Conservative’s faces, because Carney basically can’t be tied to the destruction in Gaza whatsoever.

As for the seriousness of the Gaza-Israel issue, I hope Canada can try and harken back to our peacekeeping past and push for pragmatic, peaceful solutions that can see at least this one small part of the Israel-Palestinian conflict come to peaceful conclusion. I don’t see the CPC of Canada supporting anything but a very pro Israel solution, regardless of which official language they are speaking.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Like it or not, there’s Canadian voters out there who are single issue voters in Gaza.

.

Well hopefully there aren't many Canadian voters who are literally in Gaza, though it does often feel that way with some of them!

[dleung]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Yes, I think that the excuse that it's because Trump II is an existential threat to Canada (which he is) that Canadians are obsessive over US politics and ignore their own, is pretty lame.

In my observation Canadians started progressively devoting more of their time to US politics and ignoring their own around the George W Bush years.

Part of me thinks it also coincided with the advent of highly popular Hollywood TV shows like The West Wing which were based in the Washington political scene.

I've said it before but we're now at the point where Ottawa is the CFL and Washington is the NFL of politics in the mind of many Canadians.

It's called globalization baby



I know plenty of Europeans watching the shit show going on in the US with bated breath, and they're not even as culturally intertwined as we are

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Well hopefully there aren't many Canadian voters who are literally in Gaza, though it does often feel that way with some of them!

You can say that again, lol

Originally Posted by Acajack

An unknown quantity for the upcoming election:

Anti-Trudeau hate isn't nearly as strong in Quebec as it is in the ROC.

This isn't because Trudeau is incredibly popular here, but rather that anyone who hates him today already hated him in 2019 and 2015.

You don't have this large constituency like you have in the ROC where people may have supported him before the pandemic and have now turned sour on him and are very bitter.

Basically it's the separatists and nationalists that have always hated him and his father.

But there is also a rather large group in Quebec that will still support him because is the best foil to the separatists. You don't really have this existential consideration in the rest of the country.

I honestly don't know who this will advantage, BTW.

Could Trudeau stump for Carney in Quebec only? Or could that risk tanking support for Carney in the ROC? Imo, Carney will be taking a page out of the “Team Holt” playbook from the NB election, and Trudeau will be considered persona non grata, despite the slightly bump in popularity and favourables post Trump’s 51st state talk/ tariff threats.

There’s gotta be a lot that Mark Carney can offer Quebec, even if it borders on pandering. Direct pandering seems to be an effective strategy for politicians trying to shore up support in, “La belle province”.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

There’s gotta be a lot that Mark Carney can offer Quebec, even if it borders on pandering. Direct pandering seems to be an effective strategy for politicians trying to shore up support in, “La belle province”.

Meh. No Tory (since Brian Mulroney, and he was Québécois) for example has gained significant support in Quebec by saying that they will let the province do its own thing and that they'd respect provincial authorities.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

You can say that again, lol


Could Trudeau stump for Carney in Quebec only? Or could that risk tanking support for Carney in the ROC? Imo, Carney will be taking a page out of the “Team Holt” playbook from the NB election, and Trudeau will be considered persona non grata, despite the slightly bump in popularity and favourables post Trump’s 51st state talk/ tariff threats.

.

I don't think so. Trudeau isn't radioactive here like he is in much of the ROC but you don't have much to gain by bringing him on board for the campaign. A lot of the ridings (though maybe not all) that are currently Liberal will still voted red if it's Mark Carney or Chrystia Freeland or anyone who is leader.

And as you say, the tradeoff with how that looks in the ROC is a bad one.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Stephen Harper's French was better than Joe Clark's, for example.

You sure you aren't judging late Clark? I thought he got pretty good while he was in Ottawa when it was a singular focus to become PM.

Harper's was very shallow and seemed to be all memorization though he did very well in debates by 2006.

Originally Posted by Acajack

Meh. No Tory (since Brian Mulroney, and he was Québécois) for example has gained significant support in Quebec by saying that they will let the province do its own thing and that they'd respect provincial authorities.

Harper came close a few times or at least once before some cultural funding faux pas ruined the vibe. His surprise holding his own in 2006 led also to a small breakthrough that might have been bigger with a longer campaign.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

People want the show. They don't want to admit that. So they come up with excuses on why it's relevant to them. I was posted in the US and I didn't follow their politics as closely as some here, who have never lived in the US.

Again I disagree. You have the assumption that we are exactly like the Americans. Intentionally or not, PP is emulating Trump, going on about "Carbon Tax Carney," and "woke culture," "Canada is broken," "Canada First," etc. All these sound bites, from a person with the charisma of a piece of bread.

Canadians are different that Americans, as we are more knowledgeable about political issues on average, and to us, we are more likely to see through a reality TV candidate like Trump. It may explain why Kevin O'Leary failed at running as Conservative leaders a few years ago.

[BlackDog204]

Federal Polling - Carney As LPC Leader:

LPC: 40% (+7)
CPC: 38% (+4)
NDP: 11% (-7)
BQ: 5% (-3)

Leger / Feb 23, 2025 / n=1534 / Online

(% Change w 2021 Federal Election)

[BlackDog204]

The previous Nanos poll had the Conservatives up by 8 percentage points. Carney and the Liberals are now on pace to pass the Conservatives in nearly every poll by the beginning of March.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Could Trudeau stump for Carney in Quebec only?

"I'm an outsider. Here's my best bud Justin to tell you all about it".

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Again I disagree. You have the assumption that we are exactly like the Americans. Intentionally or not, PP is emulating Trump, going on about "Carbon Tax Carney," and "woke culture," "Canada is broken," "Canada First," etc. All these sound bites, from a person with the charisma of a piece of bread.

Canadians are different that Americans, as we are more knowledgeable about political issues on average, and to us, we are more likely to see through a reality TV candidate like Trump. It may explain why Kevin O'Leary failed at running as Conservative leaders a few years ago.

I mean, the fact that you can only describe the political landscape in this country by using the USA as a frame of reference tells me that you probably spend an inordinate amount of time obsessing over their politics.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by theman23

"I'm an outsider. Here's my best bud Justin to tell you all about it".

Lol yes, probably why they’ll never allow it, even if the former PM could be helpful in a few swing ridings for the LPC in Quebec versus the BQ.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

The previous Nanos poll had the Conservatives up by 8 percentage points. Carney and the Liberals are now on pace to pass the Conservatives in nearly every poll by the beginning of March.

And this is still a general poll for the LPC, without Carney specified as leader. Big shift… should be interesting to see how this impacts the 338 projection this Sunday.

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Federal Polling - Carney As LPC Leader:

LPC: 40% (+7)
CPC: 38% (+4)
NDP: 11% (-7)
BQ: 5% (-3)

Leger / Feb 23, 2025 / n=1534 / Online

(% Change w 2021 Federal Election)

🍎🐛 *munch* 📉