Canadian Federal Election

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

The idea that Trudeau listened to anyone seems dubious. Carney arrived back in Canada and mildly criticized the 2021 budget as not being growth oriented enough. We know it's Trudeau that wanted to focus on social care more than growth.

In terms of climate he absolutely has a long history of calling for investment/spending. Removing the carbon tax for a US style industrial policy is very much in the cards.

We know Trudeau's policy behind the scenes is mainly driven by the machinations of the PMO office run by the dream team Katie Telford and Gerald Butts. Tudeau's marquee policy disasters like the immigration ponzi scheme, post-national identity politics have their handprints all over it.

Given that they're heavily involved in the Carney camp now, I don't see this pivot to growth happening. That is until Carney clears the deck and fires Telford, Butts and the rest of the Trudeau crew.

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

The idea that Trudeau listened to anyone seems dubious. Carney arrived back in Canada and mildly criticized the 2021 budget as not being growth oriented enough. We know it's Trudeau that wanted to focus on social care more than growth.

In terms of climate he absolutely has a long history of calling for investment/spending. Removing the carbon tax for a US style industrial policy is very much in the cards.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Are you trying to get home owning boomers to sign up to volunteer for Carney?

That is the core Liberal TruAnon party base, so isn't that self-evident?

[samne]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

We know Trudeau's policy behind the scenes is mainly driven by the machinations of the PMO office run by the dream team Katie Telford and Gerald Butts. Tudeau's marquee policy disasters like the immigration ponzi scheme, post-national identity politics have their handprints all over it.

Given that they're heavily involved in the Carney camp now, I don't see this pivot to growth happening. That is until Carney clears the deck and fires Telford, Butts and the rest of the Trudeau crew.

This current Liberal crew are trying anything to hold on. It’s just a continuation of the same thing, just hot swapping one face for another.

I think most Canadians see this except for the tribal few like the ones on this forum.

Clear the decks regroup and come with something new and different next election after this one and you have my ears.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

We know Trudeau's policy behind the scenes is mainly driven by the machinations of the PMO office run by the dream team Katie Telford and Gerald Butts. Tudeau's marquee policy disasters like the immigration ponzi scheme, post-national identity politics have their handprints all over it.

Given that they're heavily involved in the Carney camp now, I don't see this pivot to growth happening. That is until Carney clears the deck and fires Telford, Butts and the rest of the Trudeau crew.

Yes. Honestly it's a bit concerning. Certainly he seems all in on climate change hysteria. We can assume he will continue the DEI stuff if reduce the spending a bit.

There is a Liberal belief that it's only grocery prices and getting tired of Trudeau. So a quick face change and changing the channel can restore them to glory.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Build.It

I just realized the past day that for me as a business owner I would benefit from Carney's inflation in terms of higher profit and a higher barrier of entry for anyone who wants to start a competing business. I am now considering voting for him.

Do you think you are fooling anyone with this nonsense?

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Do you think you are fooling anyone with this nonsense?

What, that he'll be acting in what he sees are his own selfish best interests? I believe he will.

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Do you think you are fooling anyone with this nonsense?

All that printed money is going to get spent into the economy and end up in pockets of people such as myself.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Build.It

All that printed money is going to get spent into the economy and end up in pockets of people such as myself.

Me too, print away, let's go!

[theman23]

I want to like Karina Gould as the younger, youth oriented alternative for the LPC that’ll finally orient themselves away from their aging base but so far there hasn’t been much to be excited for.

She’s proposing a temporary (one year) 1% GST cut and is planning on funding this with a 2% permanent increase in corporate taxes for very profitable businesses (>500m). But will anyone even notice a 1% cut? It’s too bad that even a long shot candidate like herself doesn’t have the fortitude to propose major changes that’ll tackle some of our structural problems. Slash income taxes and bring in a federal wealth tax Karina and then we’ll talk.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by theman23

I want to like Karina Gould as the younger, youth oriented alternative for the LPC that’ll finally orient themselves away from their aging base but so far there hasn’t been much to be excited for.

She’s proposing a temporary (one year) 1% GST cut and is planning on funding this with a 2% permanent increase in corporate taxes for very profitable businesses (>500m). But will anyone even notice a 1% cut? It’s too bad that even a long shot candidate like herself doesn’t have the fortitude to propose major changes that’ll tackle some of our structural problems. Slash income taxes and bring in a federal wealth tax Karina and then we’ll talk.

The 1% cut is stupid. GST should be higher IMO and other taxes reduced.

All that said I am noticing the GST holiday we are on now. Prices on the menu match what I pay.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

The 1% cut is stupid. GST should be higher IMO and other taxes reduced.

All that said I am noticing the GST holiday we are on now. Prices on the menu match what I pay.

Yeah I have the same economic view we should have a 10% GST and cut income taxes but I can see why it's popular. You really notice everyday that you don't have to pay the tax. Only in North America is tax added after the price and for sure that's why we don't have 25% VATs.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

📉 📈

Will be interesting to see where the polling goes now that the Trump tariffs are in effect.

[Marty_Mcfly]

It's amazing how easily you can identify the EKOS polls in that plot; they're single handedly skewing the average.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

It's amazing how easily you can identify the EKOS polls in that plot; they're single handedly skewing the average.

338 still gives them a B+ grade. Perhaps they are simply ahead of the curve.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

338 still gives them a B+ grade. Perhaps they are simply ahead of the curve.

Lol I'm in a discord channel with Eric and Phillipe, they do not have anything positive to say about EKOS. They're just a lot more civil about it than most other people.

[TorontoDrew]

I'm surprised more Con Bots haven't joined SSP to vote here. Give it time and they will find this poll.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Lol I'm in a discord channel with Eric and Phillipe, they do not have anything positive to say about EKOS. They're just a lot more civil about it than most other people.

They might not have much positive to say about EKOS... but what about the Mainstreet poll from the 27th of January that has the LPC leading the CPC in Ontario 36% to 33%?

I kinda get the feeling Phillipe leans conservative, but that’s not to say his website and model is not the most accurate thing we have. I assume Eric is the other guy from 338? It took them a very long time to show the NB Liberals ahead in the NB election this past October, even though most political observers felt before the election was even called that Holt’s Liberals were cruising towards victory. Mainstreet had the Holt Liberals with a 77% chance to win a majority within a week of the writ being dropped, and even rightly called some huge upsets wins for the Liberals in the traditionally conservative ridings of Rothesay and Hampton. It took 338 until like the final week of the election to finally update their model in favour of Holt’s NB Liberals winning.

Don’t get me wrong, 338 is a great resource and is the best thing we have for an aggregate of polling data.. but there’s a lot that the model doesn’t take into consideration, or simply can’t.

Personally, I think we will see other polls start to show a rise in Liberal support as Carney is assumed to front runner to become our next Prime Minister as a result of this leadership race. Not only is Mark Carney viewed by many Canadian as the better option for dealing with Trump in this Canada-US trade war, many Canadians view Pierre Poilievre as the, “Trump of the North”. That can’t be helping PP very much at the moment. 😅

Perhaps you can ask Phillipe in discord if their model has a method or way to take into consideration the “Trump Factor”?

The current CPC lead in the polls according to 338 is based on over a year of traditional polling methods, where perhaps very few, if any questions were asked about Donald Trump by Canadian pollsters. Donald Trump’s re-election always had the potential to hurt the PP CPC’s and limit them to a minority, but I don’t think anyone expect Trump to have had this much of an impact on the Canadian election and PP’s political fortunes… or misfortunes. Trump and his trade war is shaping up to be the definitive issue of the election.

A month ago, a Conservative majority was considered a near certainty, while a Conservative minority was at around a 1% chance and a Liberal minority at less than a 1% chance. I don’t think it’s at all outlandish to suggest that a Conservative minority or even a Liberal minority could be the results of the upcoming election, especially if Mark Carney does indeed secure the Liberal leadership and becomes the next PM, and Pierre Poilievere continues to be considered a Trump like figure for many Canadian voters… especially if Trump and his trade war and threats of annexation remain definitive issues for many Canadian voters in the upcoming federal election.

PS: if you could please ask Phillipe to correct the spelling of Saint John, NB on their website, as it's currently incorrectly abbreviated on their website. It would be greatly appreciated by many Saint Johners, especially this one thanks

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

They might not have much positive to say about EKOS... but what about the Mainstreet poll from the 27th of January that has the LPC leading the CPC in Ontario 36% to 33%?

They mentioned it as eyebrow raising, but it is somewhat selective to just look at one data point to draw a conclusion. Since Mainstreet, we've had Leger and Abacus also report and are not showing any sort of bump in Ontario, with field dates about 2 weeks after Mainstreet.

There's a pretty large MoE on regional subsamples so it's best not to read into them unless you see a sustained change across multiple agencies on multiple polling dates.

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

I kinda get the feeling Phillipe leans conservative, but that’s not to say his website and model is not the most accurate thing we have. I assume Eric is the other guy from 338? It took them a very long time to show the NB Liberals ahead in the NB election this past October, even though most political observers felt before the election was even called that Holt’s Liberals were cruising towards victory. Mainstreet had the Holt Liberals with a 77% chance to win a majority within a week of the writ being dropped, and even rightly called some huge upsets wins for the Liberals in the traditionally conservative ridings of Rothesay and Hampton. It took 338 until like the final week of the election to finally update their model in favour of Holt’s NB Liberals winning.

Don’t get me wrong, 338 is a great resource and is the best thing we have for an aggregate of polling data.. but there’s a lot that the model doesn’t take into consideration, or simply can’t.

From what I gather from their comments they're not conservative, I would put both of them around that centre line.

Mainstreet does their own modelling, but they only use only their own polls to model, and it appears they lean heavier into their subsamples, which for regions like New Brunswick is a bit risky since you're projecting results based on subsamples of 100 or possibly even less (once again, massive MoE). Looks like 338 projected the Liberals going ahead on October 17th, but with so few polls released during the campaign, it looks like the poll which moved the Liberals ahead was the Mainstreet October 3rd release, and that the model just wasn't updated until 2 weeks later.

That being said, if Mainstreet had projected the Liberals ahead before the writ even dropped, I'm not entirely sure what they would have based that on other than "feelings", as they had done no pre-campaign polling in New Brunswick at all. (EDIT: I see that they dropped a poll 2 days before the writ dropped showing a statistical tie, so I'll assume that any projection they made before the writ dropping was based solely on this poll alone and it's regional subsamples).

As per models being unable to account for other things, this is somewhat true, but if you start trying to account for things like "gut feelings" into a model, it becomes unscientific. I've seen others try and do this, and it just ends up becoming a biased model based on your personal feelings.

That being said, with polling in Canada being extremely good, these "unaccountable things" are very much being captured in vote intention questionnaires.

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Personally, I think we will see other polls start to show a rise in Liberal support as Carney is assumed to front runner to become our next Prime Minister as a result of this leadership race.

The polls have already shown an increase in Liberal support, I think I already pointed that out in this thread. But they've basically got support back to about the levels it was at before the Freeland resignation. This isn't surprising, in fact it should be expected. EKOS on the other hand is completely out to lunch showing Liberal support higher than it was in 2021. EKOS track record is pretty rough so take that for what it is.

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Not only is Mark Carney viewed by many Canadian as the better option for dealing with Trump in this Canada-US trade war, many Canadians view Pierre Poilievre as the, “Trump of the North”. That can’t be helping PP very much at the moment. ������

Considering there appears to be zero polling performed asking whether Carney or Poilievre would be better handling Trump, we're going to go ahead and assume you're just personally assuming that. The closest we have is Leger asking whether Carney or Freeland would be better at handling it, which indeed Carney does come out ahead.

As well, the only folks who view Poilievre as the "Trump of the North" are the terminally online, staunch Liberal/NDP supporters who are afraid of Conservatives. Considering Poilievres approval ratings even out to be around neutral, and most polling agencies have Poilievre well ahead as preferred Prime Minister, I'm going to go out on a limb that most Canadians do not feel like Poilievre is "Trump of the North".

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Perhaps you can ask Phillipe in discord if their model has a method or way to take into consideration the “Trump Factor”?

The current CPC lead in the polls according to 338 is based on over a year of traditional polling methods, where perhaps very few, if any questions were asked about Donald Trump by Canadian pollsters. Donald Trump’s re-election always had the potential to hurt the PP CPC’s and limit them to a minority, but I don’t think anyone expect Trump to have had this much of an impact on the Canadian election and PP’s political fortunes… or misfortunes. Trump and his trade war is shaping up to be the definitive issue of the election.

Once again, accounting for a hypothetical "Trump Factor" becomes a wishy washy grey-area. You would have to assume that however people feel about Trump, and who they think is best suited to deal with Trump, is being accurately reflected in vote intention responses by polling agencies. If someone thinks Carney is best suited for this, then they'll certainly be responding that they're voting Liberal in the next election.

This will absolutely be the big issue during the election. And while this poll is certainly out of date and a little irrelevant right now considering Trudeau was a response, in late December Ipsos found that most Canadians considered Poilievre the best person to deal with Trump. Carney will have a lot of ground to make up, not saying he can't do it of course.

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

A month ago, a Conservative majority was considered a near certainty, while a Conservative minority was at around a 1% chance and a Liberal minority at less than a 1% chance. I don’t think it’s at all outlandish to suggest that a Conservative minority or even a Liberal minority could be the results of the upcoming election, especially if Mark Carney does indeed secure the Liberal leadership and becomes the next PM, and Pierre Poilievere continues to be considered a Trump like figure for many Canadian voters… especially if Trump and his trade war and threats of annexation remain definitive issues for many Canadian voters in the upcoming federal election.

I don't think it's wild to think that we could see some pretty big swings over the next month or so. It will ultimately come down to which leader presents a plan which resonates most with Canadians. But once again, your comment on Pierre being considered a Trump like figure is not accurate outside left-leaning echo chambers. I would not get stuck on that train of thought, otherwise you will likely find yourself very disappointed in the upcoming election.

[acottawa]

PP gave a speech a little while ago. I am not sure the Liberals hopes of trying to pin him as a Trumpling is going to work.

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