Quote:
Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly
Lol I'm in a discord channel with Eric and Phillipe, they do not have anything positive to say about EKOS. They're just a lot more civil about it than most other people.
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They might not have much positive to say about EKOS...
but what about the Mainstreet poll from the 27th of January that has the LPC leading the CPC in Ontario 36% to 33%?
I kinda get the feeling Phillipe leans conservative, but that’s not to say his website and model is not the most accurate thing we have. I assume Eric is the other guy from 338? It took them a very long time to show the NB Liberals ahead in the NB election this past October, even though most political observers felt before the election was even called that Holt’s Liberals were cruising towards victory. Mainstreet had the Holt Liberals with a 77% chance to win a majority within a week of the writ being dropped, and even rightly called some huge upsets wins for the Liberals in the traditionally conservative ridings of Rothesay and Hampton. It took 338 until like the final week of the election to
finally update their model in favour of Holt’s NB Liberals winning.
Don’t get me wrong, 338 is a great resource and is the best thing we have for an aggregate of polling data.. but there’s a lot that the model doesn’t take into consideration, or simply can’t.
Personally, I think we will see other polls start to show a rise in Liberal support as Carney is assumed to front runner to become our next Prime Minister as a result of this leadership race. Not only is Mark Carney viewed by many Canadian as the better option for dealing with Trump in this Canada-US trade war, many Canadians view Pierre Poilievre as the, “Trump of the North”. That can’t be helping PP very much at the moment.
😅
Perhaps you can ask Phillipe in discord if their model has a method or way to take into consideration the “Trump Factor”?
The current CPC lead in the polls according to 338 is based on over a year of traditional polling methods, where perhaps very few, if any questions were asked about Donald Trump by Canadian pollsters. Donald Trump’s re-election always had the potential to hurt the PP CPC’s and limit them to a minority, but I don’t think anyone expect Trump to have had
this much of an impact on the Canadian election and PP’s political fortunes… or misfortunes. Trump and his trade war is shaping up to be
the definitive issue of the election.
A month ago, a Conservative majority was considered a near certainty, while a Conservative minority was at around a 1% chance and a Liberal minority at less than a 1% chance. I don’t think it’s at all outlandish to suggest that a Conservative minority or even a Liberal minority could be the results of the upcoming election, especially if Mark Carney does indeed secure the Liberal leadership and becomes the next PM, and Pierre Poilievere continues to be considered a Trump like figure for many Canadian voters… especially if Trump and his trade war and threats of annexation remain definitive issues for many Canadian voters in the upcoming federal election.
PS: if you could
please ask Phillipe to
correct the spelling of Saint John, NB on their website, as it's currently incorrectly abbreviated on their website. It would be greatly appreciated by many Saint Johners, especially this one
thanks
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