UBCx - Millennium Line Extension Arbutus to UBC | Proposed

[jollyburger]

Maybe they'll do a ceremonial hand shake instead of business cases in the future..

[cganuelas1995]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Haven't we had multiple business cases already?

We gotta do a study on the business cases first.

Best pray the government doesn't change.

[GMasterAres]

Taking the politics away from things, business cases have a shelf life. If the last one (study which as was said was basically a BC) was Jan 2019, the landscape has completely changed in many areas over 6 full years. That doesn't mean they start from scratch, you'd take the previous business case and just work through the updated finances and technical evaluations/options with updated 2024/2025 information.

But this has nothing to do with it being Translink or Government or anything else. That is project management 101 for any major project. You can't do a business case then have it sit 6 years and then act on it. BCs are meant to in essence be acted on near immediately.

So just because a business case for any transit project was done 6, 10, 30 years ago, doesn't mean any of those are valid is my point and you still would need to do another one for a proposed project today. And not doing a business case is when you throw hundreds of millions or several billions of dollars into the garbage.

A BC like this isn't terribly expensive in the grand scheme of things. I think most people are just upset because they do take time and our local governments have this habit of undertaking a business case then not moving forward when the general population feels they should have. That's a completely different discussion and not a knock on business cases themselves imho or that as the above post states, a government changes and veers a completely different direction nullifying everything the previous government did. Again nothing to do with the act of doing a business case and actually has more to do with the BS governments tend to pull.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by GMasterAres

Taking the politics away from things, business cases have a shelf life. If the last one (study which as was said was basically a BC) was Jan 2019, the landscape has completely changed in many areas over 6 full years. That doesn't mean they start from scratch, you'd take the previous business case and just work through the updated finances and technical evaluations/options with updated 2024/2025 information.

Has it really? I agree a quick refresh is all that is required, but things haven't changed dramatically. The basic route has been the same for years if not decades. Only Jericho altered this slightly.

And the rest of your point is right. Another study/BC feels like kicking the can down the road another 18-24 months, consultants make a few million and nothing really changes.

[MalcolmTucker]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Has it really? I agree a quick refresh is all that is required, but things haven't changed dramatically. The basic route has been the same for years if not decades. Only Jericho altered this slightly.

And the rest of your point is right. Another study/BC feels like kicking the can down the road another 18-24 months, consultants make a few million and nothing really changes.

An updated business case by the end of June gets intaked to the capital approval process for budget 2026 in July, where the province can figure out how to structure paying for it.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

An updated business case by the end of June gets intaked to the capital approval process for budget 2026 in July, where the province can figure out how to structure paying for it.

The BC was supposed to be complete in "Fall 2024" and could have been funded in the upcoming 2025 budget in March if there was any sense of urgency at all, about anything.

[MalcolmTucker]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

The BC was supposed to be complete in "Fall 2024" and could have been funded in the upcoming 2025 budget in March if there was any sense of urgency at all, about anything.

Our institutions are bad at this. There is a reason the infrastructure ministry was created to try to figure out a different path. As what is going on really sucks. For schools, hospitals, transit, roads, etc. BC is far less nimble than other provinces. The processes set up to stop fast ferries 2 has ended up costing way more than a fast ferries type project every couple of years.

[mcj]

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

Our institutions are bad at this. There is a reason the infrastructure ministry was created to try to figure out a different path. As what is going on really sucks. For schools, hospitals, transit, roads, etc. BC is far less nimble than other provinces. The processes set up to stop fast ferries 2 has ended up costing way more than a fast ferries type project every couple of years.

The overreaction to the fast ferries scandal by Gordon Campbell continues to haunt BC, not a surprise. Is there a legal requirement for infrastructure projects to complete business cases here? or is this just something colloquial that we've done since?

[SFUVancouver]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Has it really? I agree a quick refresh is all that is required, but things haven't changed dramatically. The basic route has been the same for years if not decades. Only Jericho altered this slightly.

And the rest of your point is right. Another study/BC feels like kicking the can down the road another 18-24 months, consultants make a few million and nothing really changes.

Adoption of the Broadway Plan and Vancouver Plan and the provincial Bill 42 are all very substantial (and positive) changes that have occurred since the previous business case for the UBC extension. UBC also updated its campus master plan in 2020. All these policies revise significantly upwards the population density and land use assumptions that underpin the business case ridership forecasts. In other words, from a demand side, if the previous business case was sound, it will be even more so in the updated business case.

On the other hand, construction prices went coo-coo since the last business case, so the cost side of the business case has undoubtably got much more burdensome.

I think an updated business case is simply a prudent step. It will also help Translink scope the RFP for the project and prime the pump for government commitments. The wildly cautionary tale of Ontario's recent (and ongoing) transit construction stumbles is well worth considering, too.

<Cough, cough The Ontario Line budget has increased to $27.2B from $10.9B when it was approved in 2019. It's still a good project, but the business case it was predicated on assumed costs 150% less than today. Like the UBC Line, it should have been built decades ago. Cough, cough>

[Migrant_Coconut]

Ontario's (the province) cost overruns alone could likely pay for all of Transport 2050 - measure twice, cut once and all that.

Yes, we're approaching "thrice" by now. Point still stands.

[mcj]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Ontario's (the province) cost overruns alone could likely pay for all of Transport 2050 - measure twice, cut once and all that.

Yes, we're approaching "thrice" by now. Point still stands.

To be fair, Transport 2050 is not as large a scope as what Ontario is progressing.

Transport 2050 is something like 100km of Skytrain, and 200 km of BRT. That's basically it aside from larger bus fleets/bike paths.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by mcj

To be fair, Transport 2050 is not as large a scope as what Ontario is progressing.

Transport 2050 is something like 100km of Skytrain, and 200 km of BRT. That's basically it aside from larger bus fleets/bike paths.

We don't disagree - if BC had Ontario's war chest, trains for Tsawwassen, the Valley, the Island, Whistler and the Okanagan could progress from "you must be joking" to "no promises, but we'll have a look at this."

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by Lexus

70K of seasonal riders who pay $40 for a monthly pass by folks who mostly international. In this case UBC should chip in some cash as well as Jericho development. Even then should be happening after purple line.

Only 30-39% of UBC's students are international. The rest, by process of elimination, are Canadians (though TBF many are from other provinces). Both they and Jericho are contributing.

At any rate, I'm listing just the current UBC commuters (including faculty, visitors and other staff). I'm not including the existing 80k passengers on UBC-bound buses, for a total for 150k+ UBC commuters every single day (Edit: My bad, that's 40k of 75k twice a day, which adds up to 150k). Nor am I counting the ridership from commuters in Point Grey, Dunbar, Kitsilano and all the retail villages in-between who'll leave their cars at home and take the train - nor future SkyTrain riders who move in along with the inevitable density - because that's harder to quantify.

The Purple Line is pegged at 120k boardings/day. I wouldn't be surprised if UBCx gets up to twice that.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Only 30-39% of UBC's students are international. The rest, by process of elimination, are Canadians (though TBF many are from other provinces). Both they and Jericho are contributing.

At any rate, I'm listing just the current UBC commuters (including faculty, visitors and other staff). I'm not including the existing 80k passengers on UBC-bound buses, for a total for 150k+ UBC commuters every single day. Nor am I counting the ridership from commuters in Point Grey, Dunbar, Kitsilano and all the retail villages in-between who'll leave their cars at home and take the train - nor future SkyTrain riders who move in along with the inevitable density - because that's harder to quantify.

The Purple Line is pegged at 120k boardings/day. I wouldn't be surprised if UBCx gets up to twice that.

LOL to “only” 30 to 39%

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by whatnext

LOL to “only” 30 to 39%

In other words, if the 17k international students all had to go home at the start of this summer, there'd still be 42k+ students (not counting faculty/staff/visitors) interested in taking a SkyTrain.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by WBC

Yes, but at what cost? I would bet that extension to UBC would be 10 billion by the time it gets built with current price escalations...

Regrettably, I have hard time seeing new lines beyond Langley getting built any time soon. As in, not before 2040.

Langley itself now costs $6 billion for half of UBCx's ridership, yet we all agree that it's worth every penny. The province is only waiting on the studies before they give the green light, so it depends entirely on how much the feds are willing to part with.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Only 30-39% of UBC's students are international.

I just want to point out that that page says that 30% of UBC's degree-seeking students are international, it's not somewhere between 30-39%. The 39% is of those seeking graduate degrees.

[s211]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Langley itself now costs $6 billion for half of UBCx's ridership, yet we all agree that it's worth every penny.

Um, I must have missed that kumbaya moment. I think the Langley extension is money badly spent. I guess those that don't subscribe to your perspective are to be excluded from your math?

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by s211

Um, I must have missed that kumbaya moment. I think the Langley extension is money badly spent. I guess those that don't subscribe to your perspective are to be excluded from your math?

Ironic, coming from the poster who added me to their ignore list.

"99% of us" then. You're entitled to your opinion, even if it's a dubious one.

[officedweller]

BC government confirms UBC SkyTrain extension to be a key priority
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/bc-government-transportation-transit-mandate-priorities