Metro Vancouver Transit Discussion II

[WBC]

Originally Posted by VancouverOfTheFuture

man if we got the money the east did, we would have the purple SkyTrain line, the Hastings SkyTrain line, some loop through the West End - UBC along 41st - Metrotown, and whatever other lines we can dream up.

The way costs are going up the Purple Line will end up costing 20 Billion. At that price it won't get build.

Looking at insane cost escalation for all the major infrastructure projects I think we will soon hit a brick wall. There is no way that governments (regardless of the level) can finance projects that are doubling or quadrupling in cost every few years with tax revenue that is essentially static. Something's gotta give here. This is not financially sustainable. The world may be heading for the Argentina moment...

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

And if we had the population that the golden horseshoe does then we'd be in desperate need for them.

Difference is that we're a bit more resourceful with the funding we get - you'd never catch TransLink asking for $17 billion for one subway... and then another $10 billion on top of that because they couldn't manage the first 17.

[Metro-One]

Originally Posted by Changing City

It’s a perfect opportunity to start using battery electric coaches. MCI / New Flyers coaches already offer over 500km of range on a single charge – enough for a round trip from Victoria to Courtenay, or Vancouver to Pemberton. It’s just enough to travel from Victoria to Port Hardy on a one-way charge, if they’re thinking of offering a service all the way up the Island (maybe twop or three times a week, initially).

Bus service could be introduced as soon as the buses and chargers could be acquired. Rail on the Island would take years to introduce, and hundreds of millions in capital costs, and a much greater continuing subsidy to operate.

The Snaw-naw-as First Nation have been given their land back, and already removed the tracks, and are seeking compensation for the contamination of the land, so rail service couldn’t be reintroduced to Courtenay anyway.

Putting some sort of service between Langford and Victoria may be worth considering, but that’s a separate exercise from putting a transit service up the Island.

Wow! So the forward looking pro-transit NDP and and noble environmentally minded natives have together driven another nail into the coffin for the most linearly distrusted population corridor in the province ever having a rail passenger service?

I do enjoy watching all the people who should know better trying to square this peg.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

Wow! So the forward looking pro-transit NDP and and noble environmentally minded natives have together driven another nail into the coffin for the most linearly distrusted population corridor in the province ever having a rail passenger service?

I do enjoy watching all the people who should know better trying to square this peg.

People need to acknowledge at some point that indigenous Canadians are humans too and no different from anyone else. The Snaw-naw-as not wanting rail in their backyard is literally no different from White Rock or West Vancouver residents not wanting rail in their backyard. There's no hypocrisy here. Just like with White Rock or West Vancouver residents, whether it's opposing pipelines or railways it's pretty much never truly about the environment. It's just NIMBYism.

Personally I'd like the government to step up against NIMBYism to help deliver transit projects in the province but whether it's rich white NIMBYs or First Nations NIMBYs, that's a politically difficult faction to fight against.

[Migrant_Coconut]

The "most linearly distrusted (sic) population corridor in the province" is Vancouver-Langley; that train currently carries 288k passengers/day, with more in the future.

The E&N, by contrast, has less than half the population and density over twice the distance and empty space, and every attempt to restart service has failed miserably; the most recent government study found just over 1.5k daily riders on four trains. It really only existed to haul timber down to the shipyards at Victoria; light metro to Langford makes sense, but anything up to Duncan and beyond is the Island's version of Rail for the Valley.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

The "most linearly distrusted (sic) population corridor in the province" is Vancouver-Langley; that train currently carries 288k passengers/day, with more in the future.

The E&N, by contrast, has less than half the population and density over twice the distance and empty space, and every attempt to restart service has failed miserably; the most recent government study found just over 1.5k daily riders on four trains. It really only existed to haul timber down to the shipyards at Victoria; light metro to Langford makes sense, but anything up to Duncan and beyond is the Island's version of Rail for the Valley.

If you'll allow me some fantasy musing:

There probably exists a world where the housing minister could help push for rail transit along the Island Corridor using an even more aggressive TOD policy. Each future station along the line gets prezoned for 4FSR within 800m, 6FSR within 400m, and 10FSR within 200m. Downtown Victoria and downtown Nanaimo as the anchors of the line will of course require double that, in twice the radius. Maybe then the population density and future employment density might justify rail transit along the corridor.

Something tells me that the average "Vancouver Island needs to bring back rail transit" proponent would not be very happy with this policy, however.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by mcj

The transit related portion of the agreement in principle between the BCNDP and BC Greens:



Finally getting regional public transit service

Very curious as to how they will afford that.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Trnslink is going to be in trouble, like every system in the country, due to the new immigrtion levels.

Students & TFW use the system much more then most & this will result in much lower ridership over the short/medium term.

I stand by what I said.

The new StatsCan figure show Canada's population growth in the 4th quarter compared to last year has plunged. In BC we had 62,000 new residents in 2023 4th quarter and that is now collapsed to 21,000. This will continue to decline and by this time next year BC {and even more so Vancouver} will be in population decline just like every other province in the country save Alberta.

Of course the devil is in the details as it's not so much the number of people but the demographic makeup of them. TFW & students, who are the ones being turfed out, are MUCH more likely to be transit riders than the general population and this will hit Translink's bottom line hard just like the TTC & STM.

Translink's finances are already very precarious and this decline in ridership/revenue is going to significantly add to their woes. Unless Victoria comes out with mega-bucks to save Translink, which I doubt they will due to already dealing with record deficits and a slowing economy, we are looking at major cuts to service across the board.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by seamusmcduff

Why? If we focus our money on building transit instead of expanding highways and interchanged, we can definitely find a way to afford it.

No one bats an eye at the billions we spend on road infrastructure, but as soon as a fraction of that money is considered for transit, every dollar is put under the microscope

At the rate they're spending one one depot ($828 million estimated so far) they're going to run out of room soaking motorists for the gas tax pretty soon. And estimated $6 BILLION plus for all the required depots and the rest of their wish list...it's not happening.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by whatnext

At the rate they're spending one one depot ($828 million estimated so far) they're going to run out of room soaking motorists for the gas tax pretty soon. And estimated $6 BILLION plus for all the required depots and the rest of their wish list...it's not happening.

It really does make me wonder personally if trolley bus expansion really was the more affordable choice compared to battery bus expansion. I remember hearing numbers on the order of $10m per kilometre to expand trolley bus overhead lines, but if we're spending $6b on providing battery bus infrastructure that could have gotten us 600km of trolleybus lines.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

Wow! So the forward looking pro-transit NDP and and noble environmentally minded natives have together driven another nail into the coffin for the most linearly distrusted population corridor in the province ever having a rail passenger service?

I do enjoy watching all the people who should know better trying to square this peg.

Nothing to do with the NDP. The Federal Government decided to give that portion of the land back to the Snaw-Naw-As last year

[jollyburger]

We currently have three Mark V trains located at our Edmonds maintenance yard. The first Mark V train has completed many static and dynamic tests, while the second Mark V train arrived on site in August and is currently undergoing qualification testing. Train 3 was shipped from Alstom’s Kingston plan at the end of Q3 after finishing its test track testing and arrived at OMC1 in mid-October. Other commission activities this quarter included the completed design of onboard route map displays and messaging screens. According to the latest Mark V testing results, we expect the first train to enter service in Q1 2025. By the end of 2025, current projections indicate we will have 10-12 Mark V trains in-service. This will be subject to continued testing and monitoring of performance

https://www.translink.ca/-/media/transli...-board-mtg-agenda-posting-04-12-2024.pdf

[WBC]

Originally Posted by whatnext

At the rate they're spending one one depot ($828 million estimated so far) they're going to run out of room soaking motorists for the gas tax pretty soon. And estimated $6 BILLION plus for all the required depots and the rest of their wish list...it's not happening.

The time of reckoning is coming for all these infrastructure projects and for the government agencies like Translink and BC Ferries. Their revenue cannot possibly keep up with the increasing costs of material and labor. They made wild promises to unions after Covid that they cannot pay for. I have no idea how someone can sign off on a new labor deal with significant pay increases and plan and start expansion of the system that they have no way of covering through future revenue. Like not even close.

Province is running a 9 billion dollar deficit while the times are relatively good. Feds are out to lunch with their spending. Nobody is coming to save Translink. This is all insane.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

TFW & students, who are the ones being turfed out, are MUCH more likely to be transit riders than the general population and this will hit Translink's bottom line hard just like the TTC & STM.

The same students and TFWs who already get U-Passes, free one-trip tickets and other kinds of subsidies? This is not the "gotcha" you think it is.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by chowhou

Something tells me that the average "Vancouver Island needs to bring back rail transit" proponent would not be very happy with this policy, however.

Indeed. A plan to create a Metro Duncan, Metro Nanaimo and Metro Parksville over the next three decades would instantly eliminate all my objections... and instantly replace them with hundreds more from everybody living there.

[WBC]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

The same students and TFWs who already get U-Passes, free day passes and other kinds of subsidies? This is not the "gotcha" you think it is.

That is if they even bother paying...

Expo line trains are nowadays all day link for "students" attending the diploma mill "schools" that have sprung up all along the line. I am pretty sure some live in the trains...

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by WBC

That is if they even bother paying...

Expo line trains are nowadays all day link for "students" attending the diploma mill "schools" that have sprung up all along the line. I am pretty sure some live in the trains...

That's what the faregates are for.

If they live in the trains, one would think shrinking the international student pool wouldn't make the landlords so upset.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by chowhou

It really does make me wonder personally if trolley bus expansion really was the more affordable choice compared to battery bus expansion. I remember hearing numbers on the order of $10m per kilometre to expand trolley bus overhead lines, but if we're spending $6b on providing battery bus infrastructure that could have gotten us 600km of trolleybus lines.

Yep, trolleys run on the same green electricity and are proven technology Translink has experience operating. And cheaper, so why go with battery. The article I linked mentions Canada’s bus makers telling Translink they’re going all battery, as one of their biggest customers, why isn’t Translink telling them to get stuffed?

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Yep, trolleys run on the same green electricity and are proven technology Translink has experience operating. And cheaper, so why go with battery. The article I linked mentions Canada’s bus makers telling Translink they’re going all battery, as one of their biggest customers, why isn’t Translink telling them to get stuffed?

The article you linked to says an extra 175 battery electric buses will cost $370m, so they're $2.1m each. It also says 188 replacement trolley buses will cost $415m, so $2.2m each. So trolleys cost more to buy.

There are thousands of battery electric buses being ordered and operated by every transit agency across Canada, and there are only two Canadian bus builders supplying most of them. While TransLink concluded it was easier to pay more for the replacement trolley buses one more time, all the other routes would be better switching to battery electric, and when the trolleys need replacing in the future, those routes will be switched too.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Changing City

The article you linked to says an extra 175 battery electric buses will cost $370m, so they're $2.1m each. It also says 188 replacement trolley buses will cost $415m, so $2.2m each. So trolleys cost more to buy.

There are thousands of battery electric buses being ordered and operated by every transit agency across Canada, and there are only two Canadian bus builders supplying most of them. While TransLink concluded it was easier to pay more for the replacement trolley buses one more time, all the other routes would be better switching to battery electric, and when the trolleys need replacing in the future, those routes will be switched too.

It turns out the $2.1m vs $2.2m number didn't seem to take into account the cost of charging infrastructure.