Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

Fair enough. Much of the discussion on this facet of urban non-planning comes from the US. A recent financial post article (https://archive.ph/iv3kJ) discusses the same for Edmonton.

A relevant quote:

And crime is rampant in many urban centres, as last week’s visit to Edmonton reminded me. If people feel unsafe downtown, only very generous subsidies will persuade them to live there.

So far, I have not heard many municipal politicians concede their cities are turning into doughnuts. But if that is happening, they’re going to need a new approach to municipal priorities. Wishful thinking about the good old days of an urban core living off a commercial property gold mine won’t pay the bills.

SJ is just further along the process.

I’ve been a little busy lately, but I assume it’s the idea that cities start off as a Boston Cream, but end up chocolate glazed with a big hole in the middle, with all the custard consumed by those in the outlying suburbs. Though, due to the coastal nature of Saint John, and out eastward growth trajectory down the highway, I guess we’re more comparable to a Long John with most of the filling on the King's County side or the "border"

I’ll definitely read more into it later, as if it’s based on mostly American realities, it’s definitely relatable to SJ, as I feel we have a more American experience and dynamic between city and suburbs here than the typical Canadian experience. I appreciate you sharing the concept and links.

I will say though, Edmonton isn’t exactly comparable to Saint John, as the city proper population of Edmonton is well over a million now, while their CMA population is barely over 1.4 million. Strathcona and St. Albert aren’t the tail that wags the dog (Edmonton) like Rothesay and Quispamsis are here in Saint John.

Saint John’s CMA is basically 50% city proper — 50% outlying suburbs and rural communities. While some of this 50% of the CMA living outside the city limits might have justifiable reasons to not be a part of the same municipality as the city at the centre of their metropolitan region, others just don’t. Kennebecasis Park? Like come on

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Do I detect a little partisan bias in that last comment?

Actually Dornan's been to my door and to several people I know. I've been told he has been canvassing 2-3 evenings a week since shortly after he officially became the candidate.

I haven't seen the PC candidate yet but he was at a friend's house one street over a couple of days ago so I know he's out there too and expect I'll see him sometime soon.

In terms of the local candidate's ground game the campaign seems like it is well underway and has been for awhile.

Dornan was door knocking on our street tonight. I was out but passed him walking out the road as I was driving in. Stopped to say hi and must say he comes across very well. (and I'm speaking as someone who has voted PC over the years more than I have voted Liberal)

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

I’ve been a little busy lately, but I assume it’s the idea that cities start off as a Boston Cream, but end up chocolate glazed with a big hole in the middle, with all the custard consumed by those in the outlying suburbs. Though, due to the coastal nature of Saint John, and out eastward growth trajectory down the highway, I guess we’re more comparable to a Long John with most of the filling on the King's County side or the "border"

I’ll definitely read more into it later, as if it’s based on mostly American realities, it’s definitely relatable to SJ, as I feel we have a more American experience and dynamic between city and suburbs here than the typical Canadian experience. I appreciate you sharing the concept and links.

I will say though, Edmonton isn’t exactly comparable to Saint John, as the city proper population of Edmonton is well over a million now, while their CMA population is barely over 1.4 million. Strathcona and St. Albert aren’t the tail that wags the dog (Edmonton) like Rothesay and Quispamsis are here in Saint John.

Saint John’s CMA is basically 50% city proper — 50% outlying suburbs and rural communities. While some of this 50% of the CMA living outside the city limits might have justifiable reasons to not be a part of the same municipality as the city at the centre of their metropolitan region, others just don’t. Kennebecasis Park? Like come on

If we put aside the differences based on our local circumstances; the donut model is quite interesting. I recall reading about it based on 1990s Seattle.

A post from a planner in Ohio, that I think I linked elsewhere, had suggested a fix for this situation. The city he's in provides a 10 year tax holiday on the value of incremental improvements.

example:
Your house is worth 100,000.
You apply for building permits for siding, roof, paving; for example. Maybe a interior reno.
House now worth 150,000.
Taxes are still based on the 100,000 (plus neighborhood effects) for 10 years. After 10 years, you reset at the market rate again.

Takes out the disincentive of deferring maintenance due to property tax increases. I think they targeted neighborhoods with this; would make sense on the peninsula and north end, but not yacht haven lane for example.

You can also decide if it applies to new builds. Changes the incentives to build, with a carrot vs a stick.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Dornan was door knocking on our street tonight. I was out but passed him walking out the road as I was driving in. Stopped to say hi and must say he comes across very well. (and I'm speaking as someone who has voted PC over the years more than I have voted Liberal)

I'm not sure if this video plays well with the Portland-Simonds electorate.

Southwest Magazine: Endocrinologist Dr. John Dornan discusses gender-affirming care

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HY2Ce9Td7YI

[darkharbour]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

I'm not sure if this video plays well with the Portland-Simonds electorate.

Southwest Magazine: Endocrinologist Dr. John Dornan discusses gender-affirming care

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HY2Ce9Td7YI

He comes across as someone who desires to help people and has actual knowledge of the subject matter discussed. I think the interpretation of the interview will largely depend on who the audience is, not the electorate broadly. Portland-Simonds is home for a lot of people who work in the education and healthcare system due to its demographics and centricity for the university and regional hospital, which might bode well for him.

Either way, I can't see that many people looking up random local television interviews on YouTube in order to sway their provincial election choices.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

If we put aside the differences based on our local circumstances; the donut model is quite interesting. I recall reading about it based on 1990s Seattle.

A post from a planner in Ohio, that I think I linked elsewhere, had suggested a fix for this situation. The city he's in provides a 10 year tax holiday on the value of incremental improvements.

example:
Your house is worth 100,000.
You apply for building permits for siding, roof, paving; for example. Maybe a interior reno.
House now worth 150,000.
Taxes are still based on the 100,000 (plus neighborhood effects) for 10 years. After 10 years, you reset at the market rate again.

Takes out the disincentive of deferring maintenance due to property tax increases. I think they targeted neighborhoods with this; would make sense on the peninsula and north end, but not yacht haven lane for example.

You can also decide if it applies to new builds. Changes the incentives to build, with a carrot vs a stick.

I'm not a big tax fan in general, and kind of like this, but no way should new builds get to pay vacant land taxes- or none- for ten years. That shifts the tax burden unfairly away from them. 3-year phased-in tax for MUR and mixed-use already exists... maybe make it 3 years from occupancy permit instead of construction start?

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by darkharbour

He comes across as someone who desires to help people and has actual knowledge of the subject matter discussed. I think the interpretation of the interview will largely depend on who the audience is, not the electorate broadly. Portland-Simonds is home for a lot of people who work in the education and healthcare system due to its demographics and centricity for the university and regional hospital, which might bode well for him.

Either way, I can't see that many people looking up random local television interviews on YouTube in order to sway their provincial election choices.

Would it play well at the local mosque?

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

I'm not a big tax fan in general, and kind of like this, but no way should new builds get to pay vacant land taxes- or none- for ten years. That shifts the tax burden unfairly away from them. 3-year phased-in tax for MUR and mixed-use already exists... maybe make it 3 years from occupancy permit instead of construction start?

It's actually 15 years!

Details: https://www.akronohio.gov/department..._abatement.php

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

It's actually 15 years!

Details: https://www.akronohio.gov/department..._abatement.php

Interestingly enough, Akron reserves the right to revoke if not maintained.


11. Property Owner Certification: I certify that the above, and any attached information, is true and correct to the best of my knowledge. I certify that real and/or personal property taxes are not delinquent on
this property. I understand that the granting of a tax abatement means that this property is subject to an annual inspection by the City of Akron Housing Officer and that the tax exemption may be revoked if the
property is not maintained due to neglect of the owner. I understand that the tax abatement applies only to an increase in assessed property tax associated with the property improvements included in this application

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

Interestingly enough, Akron reserves the right to revoke if not maintained.


11. Property Owner Certification: I certify that the above, and any attached information, is true and correct to the best of my knowledge. I certify that real and/or personal property taxes are not delinquent on
this property. I understand that the granting of a tax abatement means that this property is subject to an annual inspection by the City of Akron Housing Officer and that the tax exemption may be revoked if the
property is not maintained due to neglect of the owner. I understand that the tax abatement applies only to an increase in assessed property tax associated with the property improvements included in this application

I'd need to learn way more Ohio tax policy than I'd care to, to look into this further. I assume property tax doesn't fill nearly the same niche as it does here.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Tax holidays could be a novel way to boost residential development in Saint John, but not sure they could be implemented without major tax reform first.

Regardless, the fact that the SJ region is so similar to many situations in the US, and dissimilar to other cities in Canada is just more reason to seriously push for regional amalgamation. The benefits of amalgamation would far outweigh the disadvantages, and set the entire region up for more stable, long term growth and development.

What would the Liberals really have to lose if they promised to amalgamate Greater Saint John from Grand Bay to Quispamsis?

While some of you life long Saint Johners have given up hope on this issue, myself and many others that have moved here believe it’s a glaringly obvious and logical solution to get at the root of the disparities between SJ and KV. Amalgamation should be a major political issue every election cycle until something actually changes. The fact that it’s talked about as such a near impossibility really goes to show just how much the tail (KV) does in fact wag the dog (SJ) here.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

I'd need to learn way more Ohio tax policy than I'd care to, to look into this further. I assume property tax doesn't fill nearly the same niche as it does here.

No Funding Cuts. Schools and other
property tax-funded organizations will
continue to receive ALL tax revenues they
currently receive, and are likely to see
increases in revenue as overall property
values rise.


While there may be differences due to the separations of powers, I would suspect that by in large would be similar.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Tax holidays could be a novel way to boost residential development in Saint John, but not sure they could be implemented without major tax reform first.

Regardless, the fact that the SJ region is so similar to many situations in the US, and dissimilar to other cities in Canada is just more reason to seriously push for regional amalgamation. The benefits of amalgamation would far outweigh the disadvantages, and set the entire region up for more stable, long term growth and development.

What would the Liberals really have to lose if they promised to amalgamate Greater Saint John from Grand Bay to Quispamsis?

While some of you life long Saint Johners have given up hope on this issue, myself and many others that have moved here believe it’s a glaringly obvious and logical solution to get at the root of the disparities between SJ and KV. Amalgamation should be a major political issue every election cycle until something actually changes. The fact that it’s talked about as such a near impossibility really goes to show just how much the tail (KV) does in fact wag the dog (SJ) here.

Sorry, but I think the passion of those opposed to amalgamation far exceeds that of those in favour. I just don't see it as an issue any political party would want to raise during a campaign.

The return on political capital spent just isn't there and the downsides from a political POV are significant. Whether it's Moncton/Dieppe/Riverviiew or SJ/Rothesay/Quispamsis/Grand bay-Westfield nobody wants to poke that hornet's nest during a campaign.

If it ever happens it will be done in the first year of a mandate with the hope passions/anger will have cooled before the next election.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Sorry, but I think the passion of those opposed to amalgamation far exceeds that of those in favour. I just don't see it as an issue any political party would want to raise during a campaign.

The return on political capital spent just isn't there and the downsides from a political POV are significant. Whether it's Moncton/Dieppe/Riverviiew or SJ/Rothesay/Quispamsis/Grand bay-Westfield nobody wants to poke that hornet's nest during a campaign.

If it ever happens it will be done in the first year of a mandate with the hope passions/anger will have cooled before the next election.

Truer words..................

At least as far as Moncton/Riverview/Dieppe is concerned, amalgamation is a bridge very much too far. The situation along the muddy shores of the Petitcodiac is exacerbated by significant ethnocultural concerns (in both Dieppe and Riverview)

Ain't ever gonna happen, ever...........

At least there is significant regional cooperation within the tri-community area.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Sorry, but I think the passion of those opposed to amalgamation far exceeds that of those in favour. I just don't see it as an issue any political party would want to raise during a campaign.

The return on political capital spent just isn't there and the downsides from a political POV are significant. Whether it's Moncton/Dieppe/Riverviiew or SJ/Rothesay/Quispamsis/Grand bay-Westfield nobody wants to poke that hornet's nest during a campaign.

If it ever happens it will be done in the first year of a mandate with the hope passions/anger will have cooled before the next election.

There’s still significantly more people in SJ than Rothesay, Quispamsis, and Grand Bay combined— three ridings the Liberals aren’t going to win. The Liberals only have a chance to win the Hampton riding this cycle because they enlisted a former Conservative MP, and the PCs are running a religious nut job… who will still probably win

What exactly would the Liberals have to lose by promising to amalgamate the SJ region from Grand Bay to Quispamsis? (and nowhere else) They’re going to lose in Grand Bay, Rothesay, and Quispamsis regardless, so I think there’s more upside than downside for them to campaign on amalgamation in Saint John, especially considering winning big in SJ could win the election for them. Saint John was the difference maker in 2018, and could very well be again in 2024.

If amalgamation happens in The Saint John Region and is seen as a success (which I really think it would be) I think the Moncton and Fredericton regions will be begging for it next, for fear of missing out, and for Moncton to regain the #1 spot among NB municipalities.

Regional amalgamations resulting in larger municipalities are the type of solutions we need to make NB more competitive and make municipal governance more efficient and cost effective. Imo, larger scale amalgamations in all three main population centres is inevitable… especially once more and more conservative baby boomers start dropping like flies.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Truer words..................

At least as far as Moncton/Riverview/Dieppe is concerned, amalgamation is a bridge very much too far. The situation along the muddy shores of the Petitcodiac is exacerbated by significant ethnocultural concerns (in both Dieppe and Riverview)

Ain't ever gonna happen, ever...........

At least there is significant regional cooperation within the tri-community area.

If Saint John continues to get it's fiscal house in order you may see an increased willingness by the bedroom communities in engage in more regional cooperation with less acrimony.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

If Saint John continues to get it's fiscal house in order you may see an increased willingness by the bedroom communities in engage in more regional cooperation with less acrimony.

I wouldn’t hold your breath. Valley residents use Saint John recreation facilities a lot as is, especially the rinks, but they haven’t ponied up to actually help pay for the maintenance of those rinks, let alone cooperate on financing a new multi ice surface facility. At least not beyond the utter pittance that the bedroom communities contribute to the SJ city budget each year.

Saint John chickened out actually going through with the recreation cards out of town residents using SJ rinks. It wasn’t until the last minute when the Saint John hotel association, led by a Quispamsis resident, Paulette Hicks, offered up $60,000 million to avoid valley residents being subjected to recreation fees, to give the constituent communities of the region more time to work out a deal for financing rink costs. She then went on to become the first CEO of Envision Saint John, and seemingly did nothing to bring about that cooperation to finance a regional rinks strategy… and the $60,000 has been more than used up.

If the bedroom communities won’t even be willing to contribute to regional financing for rinks, snow clearing, and city road maintenance, (things they use or impacts them directly) I highly doubt they’ll suddenly be willing to cooperate simply because Saint John’s fiscal situation has improved. I don’t think they’ll ever cooperate, unless they’re forced to by the province.


We already have a bunch of half measures like the Fundy Regional Service Commission, Envision SJ, among others… it just takes one provincial government with the balls and motivation do the right thing economically and enact full scale regional amalgamation. Hopefully within our lifetime.