Statistics Canada Reports II

[someone123]

Originally Posted by theman23

In 2023 when we talk about "booming" cities, it has nothing to do improving with economic prospects but rather entirely based on how much cheap land is available with close proximity to southern ontario-like suburban amenities.

I get your point but there is more going on with the migration to Atlantic Canada (with most of that being Halifax + Moncton + PEI and some nearby areas). For one thing the rate went up back in 2015-2016.

One change is that remote work became more plentiful so job options there suddenly expanded with a lot of overlap in job availability across regions and easy relocation.

Another change, I suspect, is that there was a big disconnect between the reputation of the region (or destination cities) and the reality on the ground, such that demand quickly shot up when the reputation changed. Just a few years back it was common knowledge that this place called Atlantic Canada was a hellhole of unemployed fishermen with a Nunavut-like climate. In reality Moncton is about on par with somewhere like Kingston.

[ssiguy]

I too have little faith that PP will drastically cut immigration levels.

Once PP gets into power, he will realize that our economy has become so addicted to real estate that anything resulting in that will inhibit our real estate Ponzi Scheme will throw the economy into a major recession and result in a plunge of gov't revenues. I do, however, think he will significantly reduce refugee acceptance, family reunification, refocus our immigration intake by putting more emphasis on skilled labour and less on filling positions at Timmys.

The first thing he will do, however, is make a HUGE cut to our student intake to the tune of several hundred thousand a year. It would result in a huge loss of revenue for our Universities and Colleges but he will find that 99% of Canadians couldn't care less. People know that they are one of the primary reasons why Canada has so little affordable housing as much of it is going to house international students. It would also be politically advantageous as post-secondary funding is strictly a provincial responsibility so it's not Ottawa that would get the flack from them but rather the provinces.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

The first thing he will do, however, is make a HUGE cut to our student intake to the tune of several hundred thousand a year. It would result in a huge loss of revenue for our Universities and Colleges but he will find that 99% of Canadians couldn't care less.

One interesting aspect of it is that many postsecondary institutions aren't really taking part in this foreign student bonanza. It's not clear it's providing a large benefit to postsecondary education in Canada.

Eventually there might be some scandals when it comes out who is truly profiting from this. The money is going somewhere and I doubt it is all going to pay for the online basketweaving courses or the other students. I wouldn't be surprised if higher-ups in a particular party tend to be owners, board members, and high-level administrators in the colleges that have taken advantage of the lack of reasonable enforcement.

[MonkeyRonin]

Lost in the news of record-breaking population growth is that we're also experiencing near-record emigration: https://dailyhive.com/canada/canada-losing-residents-record

[zahav]

There are definitely two big takeaways for me from this latest demogtaphic data.

First, the massive overall national growth and in each province from massive immigration, just unreal numbers without any historical precedent. It is masking what would otherwise be meh growth (natural increase is low and interprovincial is essentially negative for all provinces except Alberta, which leads me to point two).

Second, the latest interprovincial numbers stunned me. The main thing that struck me was what's happened in the Maritimes. Now this goes without saying, but establishing a trend takes several periods to determine, drawing a conclusion on the direction of migration from a single quarter isn't valid. However, it is an important figure to pay attention to, and sudden reverses should be taken seriously, and not shrugged away as an anomaly or blip. The Maritimes had been enjoying a real bounce from interprovincial migration over the last few years, which was a huge 180 from historical norms. It seemed like Ontario alone could sustain big growth for places like NS and NB when it came to growth from other provinces. But the year-over-year drops have been drastic in NS and NB. NS went from +2,211 in Q3 2022 to -16 in Q3 2023. That's a big swing, especially when growth had been positive for like 7 years. NB was similar, went from +1,447 to +21, a big difference. It's not a sign to panic or declare anything with certainty, but it could demonstrate a shift back to more historical norms in migration ie. mid-90s to mid-2010s, when Alberta dominated interprovincial migration, at the expense of the Martimes. If Alberta continues to outperform, and the flow from places like Ontario subsides (ie. migrants switching to AB instead of NS or NB), then those gains could stop and be in negative territory like the 90s, 2000s, 2010s... Who knows, but the numbers aren't blips. Provinces are now are so inundated with international migration, it really masks interprovincial weakness in a way like never before. The relative importance of interprovincial has dropped. So whereas before the interprovincial losses could really be felt in outflow places like NS and SK, now there is so much international and overall growth, it covers up people leaving the province.

One last thing. Although Alberta absolutely dominated, the year-over-year comparisons show mixed results, some surprising:

Provinces where net interprovincial migration decreased from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023
Newfoundland
Nova Scotia
New Brunswick
Saskatchewan
Alberta

Provinces where net interprovincial migration increased from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023
Quebec
Ontario
Manitoba
BC

So although Alberta gained huge in numbers, it was actually less than their net gain in 2022 (not by much, but still, it's significant than it didn't go up from last year). Ontario is a big wild card right now, their influence on places like the Maritimes is huge in terms of population movements. If that supply dries up, and there's not thousands of "escape the city" hordes moving their anymore, there wouldn't be a strong inflow to counteract Alberta. The key economic advantages to AB are still fundamentally stronger than those in the Maritimes, so even when they have been booming, AB has the power to take it away.

Sorry not being negative or judgey, it's just a pondering when looking at the current numbers, and imagining what might be driving it

[someone123]

How do you know the numbers aren't blips? The overall numbers are small and sample sizes tend to be small with large variation from quarter to quarter.

I find there tends to be a negative bias in how numbers for the Maritimes are interpreted. Isn't BC in the negative too (went from being negative to less negative), with no similar interpretation?

I think part of what's happening is there's so much immigration that housing prices have gone up in a lot of places and housing arbitrage isn't as enticing. But in this context there's still rapid population growth around the country (NS up around 3% year over year) and if some places had less growth the arbitrage options would return. It's not like the 90's or 2000's at all, and Alberta housing is likely to get more expensive too if this continues.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by someone123

How do you know the numbers aren't blips? The overall numbers are small and sample sizes tend to be small with large variation from quarter to quarter.

I find there tends to be a negative bias in how numbers for the Maritimes are interpreted. Isn't BC in the negative too (went from being negative to less negative), with no similar interpretation?

BC is wildly in the negative—on a per-capita basis its interprovincial loss was 70 times Nova Scotia’s last quarter. What’s interesting is that for a long time BC seemed impervious to the affordability-related outmigration that long afflicted Ontario. A combination of high desirability and a lacklustre situation in neighbouring Alberta? Now that Alberta is again vacuuming up people from coast to coast, the calculus has shifted, for BC but honestly for everyone. Alberta is the biggest factor behind both BC’s bad Q3, and the shift in the Maritimes.

Anyway, there’s no way right now to say if the Maritimes’ reduced flows are a blip or not. Q3 saw reduced inflows from Ontario to Nova Scotia, but Q2 saw the third-highest inflow ever. Very noisy. The much-prophesied post-pandemic outflux back to Ontario is also not happening; in the first three quarters of 2023, fewer people made the move from NS to Ontario than did in the first three quarters of 2022.

I won’t be at all surprised if the Maritimes’ interprovincial numbers ease; I’ve expected it—the numbers were pretty bonkers over the past few years. My expectation is that the numbers will remain positive on balance with many provinces, but will be more up and down overall, driven in the short term by Alberta. (In the long term we’ll see what the influx of people does to affordability there; I expect a pretty rapid deterioration in Calgary, at least.)

What I don’t expect for the Maritimes is a return to the slow decline of the ‘90.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by theman23

We're three weeks from the end of the year, and we're on pace for a population growth of about 1.7 million people this year, which is entirely driven by immigration. That's 700,000 more than last year's record of 1 million. I don't think there's any developed country in the world growing at this rate, and not even many developing countries are matching our pace.

Canada is one of the fastest growing countries in the world but we're not on track for population growth of 1.7 million for 2023. I'm assuming you took the 9 month growth of 1,252,000 and added 430,000. We're not going to add that many in the last 3 months as far fewer immigrants show up in the colder months (Q4-Q1 and Q1-Q2) than the warmer (Q2-Q3 and Q3-Q4). In the last 3 months of 2022 Canada added ~222,000 people. As absolute numbers are creeping up, perhaps we'll see a 250,000 increase for the last 3 months of 2023. The full year figure will likely be ~1.5 million.

[zahav]

Originally Posted by someone123

How do you know the numbers aren't blips? The overall numbers are small and sample sizes tend to be small with large variation from quarter to quarter.

I find there tends to be a negative bias in how numbers for the Maritimes are interpreted. Isn't BC in the negative too (went from being negative to less negative), with no similar interpretation?

I think part of what's happening is there's so much immigration that housing prices have gone up in a lot of places and housing arbitrage isn't as enticing. But in this context there's still rapid population growth around the country (NS up around 3% year over year) and if some places had less growth the arbitrage options would return. It's not like the 90's or 2000's at all, and Alberta housing is likely to get more expensive too if this continues.

No I am not biased against Nova Scotia at all, it's almost like my second home, all my friends are there and I go every year at least once. The numbers could absolutely be a blip, I am not saying anything other than these numbers surprised me. The numbers are quite a bit larger than a blip would suggest, but that's just my thinking. I have studied demographics for years, and these back and forth movements are very telling. Ignoring it or dismissing it as insignificant would be foolish; whether it's some dark signal of doom to come (lol I am being dramatic for effect, I don't think this) or just a mathematical anomaly, it deserves attention to see if there is any more to it. This article for instance said:

New N.S. population data shows end to years-long interprovincial migration trend
This week, Statistics Canada published figures from July to September showing net interprovincial migration to be flat for the first time in eight years, indicating as many people moved away from Nova Scotia as arrived from other provinces.

Nova Scotia has strained under its population growth of recent years, with house prices that rose swiftly, low apartment vacancy rates, and a stretched health-care system where tens of thousands are without a family doctor.

During the pandemic, Nova Scotia was viewed as a safe haven from COVID-19, particularly compared to places like Ontario, while work-from-home policies and dreams of a different lifestyle prompted thousands of people to pack up and head east.

But not only has that rush eased, there's even been a small reversal, according to consultant Amy Grady of Thompson's Moving, which is based in Dartmouth, N.S. She said her company is now moving some families back to Ontario.


Some are bored with the slower pace of Nova Scotia, she said, and want the entertainment life of Toronto. Others fear they are missing out on job perks by working remotely, cite concerns with Nova Scotia's health-care system, or who find themselves in a city with quickly escalating rents.

"There are people living in Halifax in apartments who are paying just as much as they would in Toronto, with less benefits," Grady said.

The article also says take the numbers with caution, as well all agree, this isn't a dig at NS... I also agree that the insane interprovincial numbers of the last few years was nuts and unsustainable, so much, so fast, and such a 180 from the norm. So obviously some corrections will happen (ie. the "small reversal" part mentioned in the article). Nothing groundbreaking there, there is almost always some reverse migration correction when there is a huge movement like ON to NS over the last few years. There was always bound to be people who made the move based on some romantic Maritime fantasy and was never going to work out. They liked the quaintness of NS, they liked their cash out from Toronto real estate, and the urban resentment brought on by Covid. But there would be a good chunk who miss part of the lifestyle there, etc. etc. So again, nothing to panic about, normal adjustments.

And yes of course BC is in the negative, no denials here, I wasn't claiming BC was winning at interprovincial migration and that NS was a mess lol! The fact that BC is in the negative is entirely due to Alberta. When AB is down (ie. 2015-2021), BC benefits the most. And when AB booms, it drags BC down (as it does with many provinces). That's my point, the lure of AB is still there, despite other regions not being basket cases, there is still a long list of pulls to AB that other provinces have a hard time competing with. AB just has to be marginally better than everywhere else, and the people pour in. That's why I'm saying don't ignore sharp changes in migration, especially when it's clear AB was responsible for pulling down NS's numbers, this is just a mathematical fact. And lower ON in migration, but mostly the AB factor.

Here's another tidbit. In Q2 2022, BC record net interprovincial migration of +8,459, the highest in the country, and far above AB's gain of +3,352. The very next quarter, BC swung to a net loss of -5,011. AB meanwhile skyrocketed to +17,626! Talk about massive swings! I knew then it wasn't a blip, there had been clues that AB was about to go back to massive in migration, anyone with a background in economics, some demography, stats, could piece the picture together. I am not saying as fact that any of this is applicable to NS at the moment, but don't take my first post as biased or negative on the Maritimes, I just think it's more relevant than you think, and could be the switch back to more noramal interprovincial numbers going forward

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal

There were only 29,963 housing starts in Quebec as a whole from January 1st to November 30th.

Montreal (CMA) : Number of persons of working age, 15 years and over. Estimates in thousands, rounded to the nearest hundred.

Nov 2022 : 3,690.2
Nov 2023 : 3,775.1

~85k

from July 2021 to July 2022, +33k

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/...022&referencePeriods=20210701%2C20220701

from Jan to Nov : the share of the metropolitan region in relation to total provincial growth.

Montreal +-70%
Vancouver +- 63%
Toronto +-57%
Calgary and Edmonton +-40% each

I would not be surprised to see Montreal above 100k, or close to it.

Don't forget that we're talking Montreal CMA, and that doesn't include the number of people moving out of the CMA to adjacent communities next to the CMA. Some cities (Calgary being one of them) don't have that situation as there aren't many communities beyond the CMA, whereas cities like Montreal, and Toronto see a lot more numbers of people moving out of the CMA to nearby communities.

So we have our predictions. Me sticking to my 30K, although I wouldn't be surprised to see it anywhere between 30K-40K. You're prediction is ~ 100K.

A dozen Schrute bucks on the line here

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by theman23

The last flux into Alberta was driven by improving economic prospects secondary to the oil boom. This current one is driven by cheap housing, which is similar to whats happened in other parts of the country where the chief impetus behind a population flux has been the availability of cheap land (ontario to the atlantic, gta to other parts of southern ontario etc.). In 2023 when we talk about "booming" cities, it has nothing to do improving with economic prospects but rather entirely based on how much cheap land is available with close proximity to southern ontario-like suburban amenities.

It's mostly driven by cheaper housing, but a strong economy is still part of it. Part of it due to Oil and Gas, but these days, just a general strong economy, with jobs still paying reasonably well. The cheap housing of course is the difference maker, but cheap housing isn't enough, the jobs still need to be there.

[Chinook Arch]

Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal

There were only 29,963 housing starts in Quebec as a whole from January 1st to November 30th.

Montreal (CMA) : Number of persons of working age, 15 years and over. Estimates in thousands, rounded to the nearest hundred.

Nov 2022 : 3,690.2
Nov 2023 : 3,775.1

~85k

from July 2021 to July 2022, +33k

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/...022&referencePeriods=20210701%2C20220701

from Jan to Nov : the share of the metropolitan region in relation to total provincial growth.

Montreal +-70%
Vancouver +- 63%
Toronto +-57%
Calgary and Edmonton +-40% each

I would not be surprised to see Montreal above 100k, or close to it.

It's hard to predict a city's growth going by provincial population estimates. Sometimes the numbers don't really add up, as for example from Q3 2021, to Q2 2022, Alberta supposedly grew by 50K, but Calgary supposedly grew by 49K in that same time period. What the actual numbers are is anyone's guess.
JC's method of using the housing starts I posted as a gauge aren't entirely accurate either. Housing starts are sometimes reported late, and don't always line up with the CMA estimate time period. also a number of immigrants who come to Canada move in with people who are already living in a house. That said Housing starts aren't estimates, they are real numbers and represent actual demand, so it's good to factor them in.

Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca

I’m loosely basing those predictions on provincial numbers and housing starts per city. I looked up Winnipeg’s housing starts and it’s about the same pace as the year before. That and I doubt it grew by 30k. That’s 2.5 times the previous year.
If you disagree place a bet, you could take home a handful of Schrute bucks

In Calgary’s case I’m basing it on Alberta having a record growth year, and Calgary having a record number of housing starts. I actually think I’ve underestimated Calgary, but we’ll see.

I'll make my predictions, and wager the Schrute bucks. These are based on a combo of housing starts and provincial estates, and are similar lineup to the last year's estimates, but with Montreal leap frogging Calgary. The estimates a year from now will be interesting as Calgary has had a massive amount of housing starts this past year. 57% of all of Alberta's housing starts so far this year.

Toronto 6,685,621 (6,870,381) +185,000
Vancouver 2,842,730 (2,927,932) +85,000
Montréal 4,378,796 (4,448,642) +70,000
Calgary 1,608,342 (1,668,588) +60,000
Edmonton 1,516,719 ( 1,561,159) +45,000
Ottawa 1,498,610 (1,528,077) +30,000
Kitchener 622,497 (647,816) +25,000
Winnipeg 871,778 (891,848) +20,000
Québec 848,776 (868,615) +20,000
Hamilton 821,839 (836,396) +15,000

[someone123]

Originally Posted by zahav

There was always bound to be people who made the move based on some romantic Maritime fantasy and was never going to work out. They liked the quaintness of NS, they liked their cash out from Toronto real estate, and the urban resentment brought on by Covid. But there would be a good chunk who miss part of the lifestyle there, etc. etc. So again, nothing to panic about, normal adjustments.

To me it feels like this is spinning data into tendentious narratives that are not very consistent and incorporate stereotypes other provinces wouldn't get from the same data, like the idea that people must be bored of NS if they leave whereas if they leave BC they are priced out. Has any other province had an 8 year running streak of quarterly net positive migration? Why do people focus so much on covid when the streak was 8 years long? Why is balanced migration (-16 net, easily within the error bars) presented as outmigration?

I don't know why somebody would move to Halifax, as most newcomers to NS do, if they wanted to live in a rural area. The rural lifestyle discussion would apply more accurately to a small farm town in Southern Ontario. Part of what happened during covid was that NS had lighter restrictions and at times managed to implement "zero covid".

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Chinook Arch

JC's method of using the housing starts I posted as a gauge aren't entirely accurate either. Housing starts are sometimes reported late, and don't always line up with the CMA estimate time period. also a number of immigrants who come to Canada move in with people who are already living in a house. That said Housing starts aren't estimates, they are real numbers and represent actual demand, so it's good to factor them in.

I'll make my predictions, and wager the Schrute bucks. These are based on a combo of housing starts and provincial estates, and are similar lineup to the last year's estimates, but with Montreal leap frogging Calgary. The estimates a year from now will be interesting as Calgary has had a massive amount of housing starts this past year. 57% of all of Alberta's housing starts so far this year.

Housing starts tell you about current development activity, but they don't really tell you anything about population change, as a construction site can easily take a couple of years after it starts before it completes, (and longer with high-rise towers in Vancouver and Toronto).

Housing completions might tell you something, and those are quite a bit less than starts this year. For example, Vancouver had 19,000 completions, but 29,000 starts. Calgary had 13,800 completions, and 18,000 starts, and Toronto 41,200 completions and 46,000 starts.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by isaidso

Canada is one of the fastest growing countries in the world but we're not on track for population growth of 1.7 million for 2023. I'm assuming you took the 9 month growth of 1,252,000 and added 430,000. We're not going to add that many in the last 3 months as far fewer immigrants show up in the colder months (Q4-Q1 and Q1-Q2) than the warmer (Q2-Q3 and Q3-Q4). In the last 3 months of 2022 Canada added ~222,000 people. As absolute numbers are creeping up, perhaps we'll see a 250,000 increase for the last 3 months of 2023. The full year figure will likely be ~1.5 million.

We’ve added 60% more by the end of Q3 2023 compared to Q3 2022. Saying that numbers are creeping up “a bit” is disingenuous. Either way, 1.5 million isn’t a small increase over last year anyways.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by zahav

I am not saying as fact that any of this is applicable to NS at the moment, but don't take my first post as biased or negative on the Maritimes, I just think it's more relevant than you think, and could be the switch back to more noramal interprovincial numbers going forward

I do think somewhat different forces are at play in BC and NS. When BC suddenly switched to negative numbers in Q3 of 2022, it was due to a sudden increase in the outflux of people, mostly to Alberta, which hasn’t yet let up. The province exported 19,291 people overall to the ROC in that quarter, compared to 13,097 in Q3 2021. Losses to Alberta have been the driving force since.

Nova Scotia’s situation is different. Outmigration this Q3 was actually slightly less than in Q3 2022—4,562 people this year compared to 4,775 last year. There HAS been an uptick in Nova Scotians heading to Alberta, but the numbers are far less dramatic than BC’s situation, both in raw terms and population-adjusted. The issue in NS is that fewer people are coming overall: 4,636 this Q3 compared to 6,921 last Q3. Most of that loss is due to a drop in people from Ontario—and yet, exchanges with Ontario are actually still quite positive. So basically, the trends affecting NS appear at the moment to be gentler. The biggest single driver of NS’ interprovincial numbers had been Ontario, but numbers are still positive with it. We’re not seeing any huge outflux, merely a waning influx, which was inevitable given how high we were riding.

Could it get worse? Of course. But the situation in BC appears to be about a very high cost jurisdiction bleeding people to a cheaper one right next door. In NS it’s about a combination of smaller adjustments in provincial exchanges, not a dramatic reversal of fortune with any one province. So I think it’s much more likely that we’ll see a mix of ups and downs in NS, rather than a sudden switch to long-term negative. No one can say for sure, of course, but that would be my hunch.

[zahav]

Originally Posted by someone123

To me it feels like this is spinning data into tendentious narratives that are not very consistent and incorporate stereotypes other provinces wouldn't get from the same data, like the idea that people must be bored of NS if they leave whereas if they leave BC they are priced out. Has any other province had an 8 year running streak of quarterly net positive migration? Why do people focus so much on covid when the streak was 8 years long? Why is balanced migration (-16 net, easily within the error bars) presented as outmigration?

I don't know why somebody would move to Halifax, as most newcomers to NS do, if they wanted to live in a rural area. The rural lifestyle discussion would apply more accurately to a small farm town in Southern Ontario. Part of what happened during covid was that NS had lighter restrictions and at times managed to implement "zero covid".

I am not saying all of NS's interprovincial growth is the "I wanna escape the city and have an apple orchard" crowd, not at all. I am saying that the huge run-up happened after Covid, and included a lot more of this contingent. I never once said the entire streak of positive migration was from that, I was referring to the huge bumps of 2021 till this year. But since people keep thinking this is personal and not statistics (!), I will post more stats. The positive in-migration pre-pandemic was more sustainable, and was not stratospheric:

2017 +3,478
2018 +3,346
2019 +4,562
2020 +5,185
2021 +10,883
2022 +10,612

The last two years were too excessive, and included more of the crowd I was referencing (the romantics, city escapers, etc.). So if that Ontario feed dies down, and even has some reversal, it will be significant. NOT A JUDGEMENT OR ATTACK on NS, just facts! And part of the pre-covid gain was AB not being a draw, they suffered outmigration for that whole period, which was a boon for places like BC and NS. BC especially, but also places like the Maritimes, prospered from having AB lose its appeal in this period. So a double whammy of losing inflow from ON and having AB appeal increase, is something to watch for. Or not, you can just claim it is bias from a BC poster and nothing to look at lol... And not sure why you keep bringing up BC's losses? For the last time, I am not comparing BC to NS and claiming BC is winning lol, not sure why that keeps being mentioned. It's exactly because BC has a long verified history of interprovincial gains and losses, we've had lots of the booms, some busts, and I can see trends and causes. NS has historically not had a period where interprovincial numbers had been so high, so it is not bias to take a hard look at the demographics behind it. I'm not wishing negativity or some apocolyptic scenario of the province emptying out lol, I am saying it is something to watch, and to take into possible consideration.

Lastly in resonse to this:

Nova Scotia’s situation is different. Outmigration this Q3 was actually slightly less than in Q3 2022—4,562 people this year compared to 4,775 last year. There HAS been an uptick in Nova Scotians heading to Alberta, but the numbers are far less dramatic than BC’s situation, both in raw terms and population-adjusted. The issue in NS is that fewer people are coming overall: 4,636 this Q3 compared to 6,921 last Q3. Most of that loss is due to a drop in people from Ontario—and yet, exchanges with Ontario are actually still quite positive. So basically, the trends affecting NS appear at the moment to be gentler. The biggest single driver of NS’ interprovincial numbers had been Ontario, but numbers are still positive with it. We’re not seeing any huge outflux, merely a waning influx, which was inevitable given how high we were riding.

Your number are only talking about absolutes, you need to look at net migration. Just look at the numbers for NS's exchanges per province (ranked in order of highest gains to lowest):

ON +445
MB +121
PEI +35
SK +30
NL + 23
NB -28
BC -59
QC -158
AB-407
Overall -16

So again not not saying -16 is earth shatteringly bad and trying to diss them, it's just a massive correction from what numbers had been. But rather than talking about NS having a "gentler" number than BC (whatever that's supposed to mean lol) and ignoring AB's impact, just look at my list. all of the net movements were pretty "gentle" except ON and AB. ON was high, AB was a drain. Exactly what I've been saying on all my posts, that watching the ON ins (and maybe outs) is important, and realizing that AB draw is massive is just realistic thinking, not bias. AB was single handedly responsible for decimating the migration; in absolute numbers, ON's influx declined yes, but it was the NET exchange with AB that caused this.

And to the "Has any other province had an 8 year running streak of quarterly net positive migration?" question? yes they have, several times. Since I only post biased information without any factual back-up though, I am not sure I should share this... But BC alone has had 3 distinct streaks of over 8 years of continuous positive quarters. Just since the late 80s there's been:

Q1 1987 to Q3 1997, almost 11 years
Q3 2003 to Q2 2011, 8 years exactly
Q2 2013 to Q2 2022, just over 9 years

So we know a thing or two about exchanges, good and bad. Right now we're at 5 negative quarters, and likely to continue with AB being the way it is, but you never know, none of us here are future tellers, just making observations, giving possibilities, analyzing data, making guesses based on what we have. I say again, I am not being biased, I am not rooting for anyone, just presenting what's there and raising possibilities.

Merry Xmas everyone! Sorry for the extra long posted, I waked and baked and this is what happens lol

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by someone123

One interesting aspect of it is that many postsecondary institutions aren't really taking part in this foreign student bonanza. It's not clear it's providing a large benefit to postsecondary education in Canada.

Eventually there might be some scandals when it comes out who is truly profiting from this. The money is going somewhere and I doubt it is all going to pay for the online basketweaving courses or the other students. I wouldn't be surprised if higher-ups in a particular party tend to be owners, board members, and high-level administrators in the colleges that have taken advantage of the lack of reasonable enforcement.

David Dingwall of Cape Breton University just popped his head out of his hiding place. I hear he is learning Hindi.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Centerprovince

Manitoba’s population estimates went up by almost 58,000 between July 2022, and July 2023, yet somehow Winnipeg is only up by 17,000? Winnipeg will easily have 30,000+ added to the estimates for July 2023 when the numbers are released in January.

Actually, the province of Manitoba gained roughly 42,000 people during that time frame. The growth of Winnipeg CMA would have probably accounted for 62% of that number.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Chinook Arch

I'll make my predictions, and wager the Schrute bucks. These are based on a combo of housing starts and provincial estates, and are similar lineup to the last year's estimates, but with Montreal leap frogging Calgary. The estimates a year from now will be interesting as Calgary has had a massive amount of housing starts this past year. 57% of all of Alberta's housing starts so far this year.

Toronto 6,685,621 (6,870,381) +185,000
Vancouver 2,842,730 (2,927,932) +85,000
Montréal 4,378,796 (4,448,642) +70,000
Calgary 1,608,342 (1,668,588) +60,000
Edmonton 1,516,719 ( 1,561,159) +45,000
Ottawa 1,498,610 (1,528,077) +30,000
Kitchener 622,497 (647,816) +25,000
Winnipeg 871,778 (891,848) +20,000
Québec 848,776 (868,615) +20,000
Hamilton 821,839 (836,396) +15,000

I would wager my life savings that Winnipeg is well over 891,848 when the CMA population estimates come out next month. My guess is Winnipeg will be closer to 900,000, perhaps on the dot.