Statistics Canada Reports II

[Centerprovince]

Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca

Is there a link to that stat? I'm not disagreeing, but last time I saw numbers for Winnipeg was in January, showing 871,778.
I'm wondering if the numbers were adjusted or something?

From Jan
Toronto 6,685,621 (6,547,381) +138,240
Vancouver 2,842,730 (2,764,932) +77,798
Calgary 1,608,342 (1,558,588) +49,754
Montréal 4,378,796 (4,340,642) +38,154
Edmonton 1,516,719 ( 1,480,159) +36,560
Ottawa 1,498,610 (1,474,077) +24,553
Kitchener 622,497 (599,816) +22,681
Winnipeg 871,778 (858,848) +12,930
Québec 848,776 (836,615) +12,161
Hamilton 821,839 (811,396) +10,443

Those numbers are from July 1st 2022. The July 2023 numbers should be released sometime in January.

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by Centerprovince

Those numbers are from July 1st 2022. The July 2023 numbers should be released sometime in January.

Okay that makes sense, thanks!. I wasn't sure what time period those were from.
Assuming each city hasd the same growth for 2023, Calgary might be sitting around 1,658,000 this past July.
Winnipeg would have been sitting around 884K, Edmonton over 1.5M and Toronto well over 7 Million. Vancouver would have been close to 3 million back in July, and is probably past that by now.

[Centerprovince]

Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca

Okay that makes sense, thanks!. I wasn't sure what time period those were from.
Assuming each city hasd the same growth for 2023, Calgary might be sitting around 1,658,000 this past July.
Winnipeg would have been sitting around 884K, Edmonton over 1.5M and Toronto well over 7 Million. Vancouver would have been close to 3 million back in July, and is probably past that by now.

I think those numbers will be higher, given the huge amount of immigrants that have arrived since July 2022.

[DLLB]

Originally Posted by giallo

That's an absolutely crazy number.

How are we even going to come close to supplying enough housing for this in the coming decade? Nationally, we'll need 2.5x the amount of current housing starts to keep things from getting really bad - which is impossible in today's housing climate. We don't have the manpower to do it for one thing, and even worse, we don't have the developers willing or able to build it.

Yikes.

I agree, where are these people going to live. We have far too many tent cities in Canada now. And of course for housing, it also has to be the manpower with the right skills which I have read is in short supply. The no. of housing units can not be built in time to meet the new demand!

As well, the health care system is stretched to the limit now and a recent poll found that 1 in 5 Canadians said they don’t have a family doctor ( Globe News, Aug/23)

Also, "For those fortunate enough to have one, the struggle persists, as 29 per cent of respondents said it was difficult to get an appointment. Thirty-seven per cent of respondents said it usually takes a few days to get an appointment with their family doctor, while 15 per cent said they get in right away.

Among Canadians who do not have a family physician, 26 per cent have abandoned their search, while another 38 per cent have been looking for more than a year, the survey found."

[DLLB]

Originally Posted by Centerprovince

Those numbers are from July 1st 2022. The July 2023 numbers should be released sometime in January.

Based on the population clock estimates, Manitoba grew from 1,391,699 (Jul 1/22) to 1,449,617 (Jul 1/23) an increase of 57,918.

It those numbers are right and Winnipeg is about 60% of the population that would be an increase of 34,751 for a population estimate of

871,778 (Jul1/22) + 34,751 = 906,529

[Chinook Arch]

Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca

Okay that makes sense, thanks!. I wasn't sure what time period those were from.
Assuming each city hasd the same growth for 2023, Calgary might be sitting around 1,658,000 this past July.
Winnipeg would have been sitting around 884K, Edmonton over 1.5M and Toronto well over 7 Million. Vancouver would have been close to 3 million back in July, and is probably past that by now.

I wouldn't be surprised if Calgary is ~ 1.7M as we speak. Looking at Housing starts from 2023, the numbers are significantly above 2022's numbers when the city grew by 50K. Not that housing starts track exactly to population growth, but it's an indicator. Calgary's housing starts have accounted for 57% of all of Alberta's starts this year, and Alberta's having a massive population boom this year.

Housing starts 2023, and the month of November.

[Architype]

Biggest Cities in Canada 1950 - 2035 | Population wise
• Video Link

Yes, I know, there are incongruities.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca

Is there a link to that stat? I'm not disagreeing, but last time I saw numbers for Winnipeg was in January, showing 871,778.
I'm wondering if the numbers were adjusted or something?

On July 1, 2023 Manitoba had 1,454,902 people. The Winnipeg CMA accounted for 61.9% of all Manitobans as of the last estimate (July 2022).

Simple math:

1,454,902 x 0.619 = 900,584.

Winnipeg CMA should be 900,584 for 2023 estimates.

[MonctonRad]

I thought most of the recent growth in the province was centered in Winkler.

[Centerprovince]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I thought most of the recent growth in the province was centered in Winkler.

Winkler is growing fast no doubt, but Winkler is still very small. So in sheer numbers, most of Manitoba’s growth is centred around the Winnipeg CMA.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by DLLB

I agree, where are these people going to live. We have far too many tent cities in Canada now. And of course for housing, it also has to be the manpower with the right skills which I have read is in short supply. The no. of housing units can not be built in time to meet the new demand!

As well, the health care system is stretched to the limit now and a recent poll found that 1 in 5 Canadians said they don’t have a family doctor ( Globe News, Aug/23)

Also, "For those fortunate enough to have one, the struggle persists, as 29 per cent of respondents said it was difficult to get an appointment. Thirty-seven per cent of respondents said it usually takes a few days to get an appointment with their family doctor, while 15 per cent said they get in right away.

Among Canadians who do not have a family physician, 26 per cent have abandoned their search, while another 38 per cent have been looking for more than a year, the survey found."

To quote the Liberals and their apologists: "how dare you question immigration you xenophobe".

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

On July 1, 2023 Manitoba had 1,454,902 people. The Winnipeg CMA accounted for 61.9% of all Manitobans as of the last estimate (July 2022).

Simple math:

1,454,902 x 0.619 = 900,584.

Winnipeg CMA should be 900,584 for 2023 estimates.

That would also mean Winnipeg grew by 30K between July 2022, and July 2023.
We need to have to have a bet

My prediction for Winnipeg's growth is 17K, putting it at 888K

Here are my predictions for the other cities. anyone else have predictions for their cities?

City ..........2022 ...........2023
Toronto ....6,685,621....6,810,000
Vancouver 2,842,730....2,925,000
Calgary ....1,608,342....1,660,000
Montréal ...4,378,796....4,408,000
Edmonton 1,516,719.....1,554,000
Ottawa .....1,498,610....1,530,000
Winnipeg ...871,778........888,000
Québec .....848,776.........861,000
Hamilton ...821,839.........832,000
Kitchener ..622,497.........645,000


Closets person gets 100 Schrute bucks!

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca

That would also mean Winnipeg grew by 30K between July 2022, and July 2023.
We need to have to have a bet

My prediction for Winnipeg's growth is 17K, putting it at 888K

Here are my predictions for the other cities. anyone else have predictions for their cities?

City ..........2022 ...........2023
Toronto ....6,685,621....6,810,000
Vancouver 2,842,730....2,925,000
Calgary ....1,608,342....1,660,000
Montréal ...4,378,796....4,408,000
Edmonton 1,516,719.....1,554,000
Ottawa .....1,498,610....1,530,000
Winnipeg ...871,778........888,000
Québec .....848,776.........861,000
Hamilton ...821,839.........832,000
Kitchener ..622,497.........645,000


Closets person gets 100 Schrute bucks!

Quebec gained over 200,000 people in the last year and you're predicting only a 30k increase for Montreal? Where did the other 170k all go (I see you've sent 12.5k to the province's 2nd largest metro)? Given the breakdown of how Quebec grew (immigration, both permanent and temporary) you might want to consider making that second 4 into a 5...

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Zeej

Quebec gained over 200,000 people in the last year and you're predicting only a 30k increase for Montreal? Where did the other 170k all go (I see you've sent 12.5k to the province's 2nd largest metro)? Given the breakdown of how Quebec grew (immigration, both permanent and temporary) you might want to consider making that second 4 into a 5...

If we're going by the population estimates for provinces and CMAs, then from July '21 to July '22, Quebec added about 100,000 people, and about 38,000 went to the Montreal CMA. If the same proportions held true from '22 to '23, during which Quebec added just over 200,000 people, that means 75-80,000 to Montreal.

Or more, since before the pandemic Montreal was regularly taking in about 70-75 percent of newcomers to the province. Even if the metro area has moved into a period of lower growth (it did shrink during the pandemic, after all, and that lower growth rate last from '21 to '22 is hard to ignore) only 30,000 out of 200,000 would be shocking. I assume it'll be far more than that.

[Justanothermember]

Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca

That would also mean Winnipeg grew by 30K between July 2022, and July 2023.
We need to have to have a bet

My prediction for Winnipeg's growth is 17K, putting it at 888K

Here are my predictions for the other cities. anyone else have predictions for their cities?

City ..........2022 ...........2023
Toronto ....6,685,621....6,810,000
Vancouver 2,842,730....2,925,000
Calgary ....1,608,342....1,660,000
Montréal ...4,378,796....4,408,000
Edmonton 1,516,719.....1,554,000
Ottawa .....1,498,610....1,530,000
Winnipeg ...871,778........888,000
Québec .....848,776.........861,000
Hamilton ...821,839.........832,000
Kitchener ..622,497.........645,000


Closets person gets 100 Schrute bucks!

Out of curiosity, Is there any particular why you are focusing and doubting Winnipeg's numbers being over 900k? I ask because I don't see you doubting any other cities numbers, including Calgary, which may also have been massively overestimated.

[GreaterMontréal]

The GMEA (Greater Montreal Extended area) is a territory which includes the metropolitan area and the peri-metropolitan area. The Extended area is made up of a multitude of satellite cities located around the edge of the CMA. All of them are within an hour's drive of Downtown Montreal. About 85% of the provincial demographic growth comes from the GMEA. Lots of migration in between the metropolitan and peri-metropolitan areas, very strong economic interconnection, and a lot more since Covid.

The province classifies its administrative regions into 3 groups

Montreal being the central region,
1- adjacent zone: which includes the 4 regions located around the island of Montreal
2- intermediate zone: which includes the 6 other regions in southern Quebec,
3- remote area: which includes all regions located outside southern Quebec.

Southern Quebec added 500k people in the last 5 years.

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

If we're going by the population estimates for provinces and CMAs, then from July '21 to July '22, Quebec added about 100,000 people, and about 38,000 went to the Montreal CMA. If the same proportions held true from '22 to '23, during which Quebec added just over 200,000 people, that means 75-80,000 to Montreal.

Or more, since before the pandemic Montreal was regularly taking in about 70-75 percent of newcomers to the province. Even if the metro area has moved into a period of lower growth (it did shrink during the pandemic, after all, and that lower growth rate last from '21 to '22 is hard to ignore) only 30,000 out of 200,000 would be shocking. I assume it'll be far more than that.

Appreciate your analysis! I think the growth dynamics have changed as 'non permanent' newcomers make up the bulk of Quebec, Ontario and BC's growth and these people are more likely to flock to large centres. I think that Montreal's proportion of the Quebec growth pie will actually increase beyond it's pre-pandemic 50% to around 60%. I'm betting on growth of 120,000 out of the 200,000. I should point out that this data is pseudo-available in the monthly jobs report where Statcan tracks labour force and population growth for Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. It has Montreal at roughly 2.5% which equates to about 110k year-over-year.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Calgary is starting to get really bad in terms of costs of living. Edmonton is just around the corner.

I have every reason to believe that by the end of the decade, Manitoba and Saskatchewan can see big inter-provincial migration gains.

Yes, they are going to get more expensive but they are starting from a much lower price point. The price of a standard SFH in Vancouver is triple what it is in Calgary and nearly quadruple what it is in Edmonton. This is made worse by the fact that rents are also astronomically more expensive so your chances of saving up enough to buy even a condo are very slim.

Added to this is that BC, unlike even Ontario, there are very few places anyone would want to live which could be considered even mildly affordable. In Alberta you have secondary cities that are still incredibly cheap and yet very livable with a decent climate ie Lethbridge. In other words, if a BCer wants affordable housing you have to move completely out of the province which in Ontario you don't neccessarily have to do.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca

That would also mean Winnipeg grew by 30K between July 2022, and July 2023.
We need to have to have a bet

My prediction for Winnipeg's growth is 17K, putting it at 888K

Here are my predictions for the other cities. anyone else have predictions for their cities?

City ..........2022 ...........2023
Toronto ....6,685,621....6,810,000
Vancouver 2,842,730....2,925,000
Calgary ....1,608,342....1,660,000
Montréal ...4,378,796....4,408,000
Edmonton 1,516,719.....1,554,000
Ottawa .....1,498,610....1,530,000
Winnipeg ...871,778........888,000
Québec .....848,776.........861,000
Hamilton ...821,839.........832,000
Kitchener ..622,497.........645,000


Closets person gets 100 Schrute bucks!

I accept. I predict Winnipeg will have 900,800 people when the CMA population estimates come out in early 2024.

[Centerprovince]

Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca

That would also mean Winnipeg grew by 30K between July 2022, and July 2023.
We need to have to have a bet

My prediction for Winnipeg's growth is 17K, putting it at 888K

Here are my predictions for the other cities. anyone else have predictions for their cities?

City ..........2022 ...........2023
Toronto ....6,685,621....6,810,000
Vancouver 2,842,730....2,925,000
Calgary ....1,608,342....1,660,000
Montréal ...4,378,796....4,408,000
Edmonton 1,516,719.....1,554,000
Ottawa .....1,498,610....1,530,000
Winnipeg ...871,778........888,000
Québec .....848,776.........861,000
Hamilton ...821,839.........832,000
Kitchener ..622,497.........645,000


Closets person gets 100 Schrute bucks!

Manitoba’s population estimates went up by almost 58,000 between July 2022, and July 2023, yet somehow Winnipeg is only up by 17,000? Winnipeg will easily have 30,000+ added to the estimates for July 2023 when the numbers are released in January.