Statistics Canada Reports II

[ssiguy]

As you may be aware, Australia is also growing quite quickly at 2% a year and of course most of it is immigration. This year the total population is expected to grow by 520,000 in a country of about 26.5 million. Needless to say, they too are in a housing crisis with very high real estate price and soaring rents.

Unlike Canada however, Australia has decided to put it's people first and get a hold of the housing crisis and have just announced that the number of immigrants allowed into the country from about 500k this year is going to be cut in half by 2025. SkyNews Australia has stated that in 2024 the total will drop to 375k and down to 259k by 2025. They will greatly decrease student numbers as well as those who are not COMPLETELY fluent in English.........pigeon English doesn't qualify. At the same time they are going to expediate highly skilled and much needed workers with high levels of education and fluent English in high demand areas but still cut the total number of immigrants in half.

If PP promised the same thing, he would get my vote without hesitation.

[Harrison]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Yes, they are going to get more expensive but they are starting from a much lower price point. The price of a standard SFH in Vancouver is triple what it is in Calgary and nearly quadruple what it is in Edmonton. This is made worse by the fact that rents are also astronomically more expensive so your chances of saving up enough to buy even a condo are very slim.

Added to this is that BC, unlike even Ontario, there are very few places anyone would want to live which could be considered even mildly affordable. In Alberta you have secondary cities that are still incredibly cheap and yet very livable with a decent climate ie Lethbridge. In other words, if a BCer wants affordable housing you have to move completely out of the province which in Ontario you don't neccessarily have to do.

They don't have to leave the province right now anyways for affordable housing, just move to Fort Nelson, Fort St. John or Dawson Creek! lol

[theman23]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

As you may be aware, Australia is also growing quite quickly at 2% a year and of course most of it is immigration. This year the total population is expected to grow by 520,000 in a country of about 26.5 million. Needless to say, they too are in a housing crisis with very high real estate price and soaring rents.

Unlike Canada however, Australia has decided to put it's people first and get a hold of the housing crisis and have just announced that the number of immigrants allowed into the country from about 500k this year is going to be cut in half by 2025. SkyNews Australia has stated that in 2024 the total will drop to 375k and down to 259k by 2025. They will greatly decrease student numbers as well as those who are not COMPLETELY fluent in English.........pigeon English doesn't qualify. At the same time they are going to expediate highly skilled and much needed workers with high levels of education and fluent English in high demand areas but still cut the total number of immigrants in half.

If PP promised the same thing, he would get my vote without hesitation.

Australia actually has a much higher natural population growth rate than Canada. Its immigration numbers are also about 1/3 of what we take in on a per capita basis. And while it may have a housing crisis, driven by some factors that we share (tax exemptions, zoning, free money), their rate of growth has been half of what we’ve seen here over the last decade. Ten years ago Australia was far more expensive than anywhere in Canada. Now, Sydney is cheaper than Vancouver or Toronto.

[Kibb]

I wonder if the estimates coming out (July 1, 2023) shortly are still going to be based on the 2016 Census like the July 1, 2022 estimate. Or are they going to use the 2021 Census data

[niwell]

Originally Posted by theman23

Ten years ago Australia was far more expensive than anywhere in Canada. Now, Sydney is cheaper than Vancouver or Toronto.

This has been repeated several times on the forum and based on family both myself and my wife have in various areas in Australia (Sydney, Brisbane, Gold Coast) I don't really think is fully accurate. Those at the bottom rungs probably have it a bit better off but most professional jobs pay less than Canadian counterparts.

That being said the differential between 10 years ago and today has narrowed significantly. Sydney is probably about as unlivable as Toronto in terms of real costs, though it's distributed in a different way. FWIW my uncle in Sydney is from Toronto, still has colleagues here and has some decent basis for comparison. Consumer goods tend to be much more expensive there from his perspective, and his University professor salary is quite a bit lower than the equivalent at UofT York. They have their own very real issues.

The fact we've let that gap narrow so much is very troubling though, so not trying to downplay things!

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by theman23

And while it may have a housing crisis, driven by some factors that we share (tax exemptions, zoning, free money), their rate of growth has been half of what we’ve seen here over the last decade. Ten years ago Australia was far more expensive than anywhere in Canada. Now, Sydney is cheaper than Vancouver or Toronto.

If you're comparing Sydney to Toronto over the past decade, it was less affordable ten years ago compared to Toronto, and it still is today.

Sydney’s price to income ratio in 2013 it was 9.2, and in 2023 it's 15.8. Toronto’s in 2013 was 6.2 and it’s now 13.3.

And it's getting no cheaper there; up to September this year “House prices in Sydney this year are up 8.1%, and apartments up 2.1%” while the TREB data shows Toronto detached house prices were up 3.75 % and apartments up 0.27% in the smae 1-year interval

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Sydney’s price to income ratio in 2013 it was 9.2, and in 2023 it's 15.8. Toronto’s in 2013 was 6.2 and it’s now 13.3.

This is kinda like arguing about murder rates in El Salvador and Jamaica. Both Canada and Australia are severely messed up. Why don't we look at successful areas instead? There are lots that have high incomes and not-Canada-level crazy housing issues (either functional market, availability of public housing, or both).

I am not very familiar with Sydney but I wonder how comparable it is to Toronto really. I think if we had a place that looked like Sydney and had a similar climate in Canada it would be a lot more popular as a destination than Toronto is. No offence meant to Toronto. There are resort-like coastal properties in Sydney that likely attract wealthy residents from around the world in a way Toronto condos probably don't, and those are going to have some impact on the statistics. Wealthy people not reporting incomes can drive income statistics down too.

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by Justanothermember

Out of curiosity, Is there any particular why you are focusing and doubting Winnipeg's numbers being over 900k? I ask because I don't see you doubting any other cities numbers, including Calgary, which may also have been massively overestimated.

I’m loosely basing those predictions on provincial numbers and housing starts per city. I looked up Winnipeg’s housing starts and it’s about the same pace as the year before. That and I doubt it grew by 30k. That’s 2.5 times the previous year.
If you disagree place a bet, you could take home a handful of Schrute bucks

In Calgary’s case I’m basing it on Alberta having a record growth year, and Calgary having a record number of housing starts. I actually think I’ve underestimated Calgary, but we’ll see.

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by Justanothermember

Out of curiosity, Is there any particular why you are focusing and doubting Winnipeg's numbers being over 900k? I ask because I don't see you doubting any other cities numbers, including Calgary, which may also have been massively overestimated.

I’m loosely basing those predictions on provincial numbers and housing starts per city. I looked up Winnipeg’s housing starts and it’s about the same pace as the year before. That and I doubt it grew by 30k. That’s 2.5 times the previous year.
If you disagree place a bet, you could take home a handful of Schrute bucks

In Calgary’s case I’m basing it on Alberta having an all time record growth year, and Calgary having a record number of housing starts…. and 57% of the provinces housing starts. I actually think I’ve underestimated Calgary, but we’ll see.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Changing City

If you're comparing Sydney to Toronto over the past decade, it was less affordable ten years ago compared to Toronto, and it still is today.

Sydney’s price to income ratio in 2013 it was 9.2, and in 2023 it's 15.8. Toronto’s in 2013 was 6.2 and it’s now 13.3.

This may indeed show that Syndey is still more unaffordable than Toronto, but it's also worth noting that Toronto's affordability has deteriorated significantly faster in that period of time, and has come a lot closer to "catching up".

Also for what it's worth, we're comparing Australia's most expensive city with Canada's second most expensive.

[ssiguy]

The point is that Australia has recognized that you cannot have an affordable housing market and still bring in hundreds of thousands of people every year which is something Trudeau can't {won't} get his head around. Now he has just announced VISAs for Gazans who have any relatives in Canada so we are about to get even more people coming into the country who can't speak either English or French.

Australia has decided to put the needs of its citizens first while Canada continues to put the needs of evey one but Canadians first.

[craner]

Originally Posted by Kibb

I wonder if the estimates coming out (July 1, 2023) shortly are still going to be based on the 2016 Census like the July 1, 2022 estimate. Or are they going to use the 2021 Census data

I would hope 2021.

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by Zeej

Quebec gained over 200,000 people in the last year and you're predicting only a 30k increase for Montreal? Where did the other 170k all go (I see you've sent 12.5k to the province's 2nd largest metro)? Given the breakdown of how Quebec grew (immigration, both permanent and temporary) you might want to consider making that second 4 into a 5...

Like I said in my other response feel free to make a bet I'm not trying to personal insult anyone's city, I'm basing a lot of it on housing starts, and I know housing starts don't track exactly to population growth, but they give a general idea. I stand by my prediction with a guess of 30K for Montreal. It could be 35K, 37K, who knows, but I think when we see the numbers for July 2023, It'll be less than 40K. Also I could be wrong, making predictions on population counts are just that, predictions.

[Dirt_Devil]

Originally Posted by craner

I would hope 2021.

February 21 2024. Using 2021 boundaries.

[zoomer]

……………………………2022……………2023

• Victoria……....423,136….…….433,911
• Kelowna……...235,473…….….241,263
• Vancouver...2,842,730…….2,957,345
• Winnipeg…....877,778…..…….899,999

[GreaterMontréal]

I'm basing a lot of it on housing starts, and I know housing starts don't track exactly to population growth, but they give a general idea.

There were only 29,963 housing starts in Quebec as a whole from January 1st to November 30th.

Montreal (CMA) : Number of persons of working age, 15 years and over. Estimates in thousands, rounded to the nearest hundred.

Nov 2022 : 3,690.2
Nov 2023 : 3,775.1

~85k

from July 2021 to July 2022, +33k

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/...022&referencePeriods=20210701%2C20220701

from Jan to Nov : the share of the metropolitan region in relation to total provincial growth.

Montreal +-70%
Vancouver +- 63%
Toronto +-57%
Calgary and Edmonton +-40% each

I would not be surprised to see Montreal above 100k, or close to it.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Changing City

If you're comparing Sydney to Toronto over the past decade, it was less affordable ten years ago compared to Toronto, and it still is today.

Sydney’s price to income ratio in 2013 it was 9.2, and in 2023 it's 15.8. Toronto’s in 2013 was 6.2 and it’s now 13.3.

And it's getting no cheaper there; up to September this year “House prices in Sydney this year are up 8.1%, and apartments up 2.1%” while the TREB data shows Toronto detached house prices were up 3.75 % and apartments up 0.27% in the smae 1-year interval

Your numbers show that Sydney's affordability has worsened by 71% versus 145% in Toronto during that period, but even then I'm not sure its entirely accurate. What price and type of income are they comparing?

GTA Median Home price was $1.08 million in November 2023 vs $1.125 million in Greater Sydney. Sydney is 4% more expensive, but local incomes are also 7% more.

Median before-tax household income in Greater Sydney was $104,000 in 2021 versus $97,000 in the GTA

Monthly mortgage payment in Toronto CMA 2021 was $2333 vs $2427 in Greater Sydney. Again, a 4% difference put up against a 7% difference in incomes.

Rentals are the same - a 1 br in Toronto is $2594 versus $2720 in Sydney. Again, a 4% difference offset by a 7% difference in incomes.

Both seem to be the same, with Sydney being marginally cheaper taking into account local incomes. The comparison looks worse for Vancouver. But the greater point here is the direction Canada is headed, where affordability is deteriorating far more rapidly than in Australia. Like I said, your own numbers show that Toronto's affordability has been worsening a rate 2x that of Sydney.

Also, I feel like I've posted all of these numbers many times this year. I'm fairly certain you're the same poster I responded to the last time I posted these numbers.

Originally Posted by ssiguy

The point is that Australia has recognized that you cannot have an affordable housing market and still bring in hundreds of thousands of people every year which is something Trudeau can't {won't} get his head around. Now he has just announced VISAs for Gazans who have any relatives in Canada so we are about to get even more people coming into the country who can't speak either English or French.

Australia has decided to put the needs of its citizens first while Canada continues to put the needs of evey one but Canadians first.

These are being billed as temporary visas, but with a 3-year duration its extremely unlikely that any of these people will ever go back.

We're three weeks from the end of the year, and we're on pace for a population growth of about 1.7 million people this year, which is entirely driven by immigration. That's 700,000 more than last year's record of 1 million. I don't think there's any developed country in the world growing at this rate, and not even many developing countries are matching our pace.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

B.C. sees record stretch of people moving out-of-province — and many are headed to Alberta

More than 12,800 B.C. residents have moved elsewhere in Canada since July 2022


B.C. has recorded its largest period of interprovincial migration losses in 20 years, with more than 12,800 people moving elsewhere in Canada since July 2022, according to Statistics Canada. It's the first time in a decade B.C. has seen 15 months in a row of more people moving out-of-province than it gains — and most are moving to Alberta in the exodus, StatsCan said Tuesday.

From July to September 2023, B.C. lost net 4,634 people to other provinces, its second-greatest quarterly dip since 2004. That single quarter of losses accounts for nearly as many people as the 4,700 gone in B.C.'s last five-quarter stretch of losses ending in 2013.

However B.C. also set a record for migration last quarter, and has added 151,437 people to its 5.6 million population so far in 2023, largely international immigrants who far outnumber interprovincial and natural losses, or deaths outpacing births. In all, B.C.'s population has risen approximately 4.2 per cent in the last year.

B.C.'s interprovincial performance last quarter puts it second only to Ontario — nearly triple B.C.'s population — which lost 5,952 people during the same period, according to data from StatsCan. And it appears B.C.'s interprovincial losses have been its western neighbour's gains: Alberta was the only province whose population increased significantly from inter-provincial moves last quarter, adding 17,094 people to its 4.7 million residents.

Alberta has now recorded gains of more than 10,000 people for five quarters in a row. "Most of Alberta's population gains through inter-provincial migration were due to its exchanges with Ontario and British Columbia," StatsCan said in a release. Alberta's government said Tuesday it had ended the "Alberta is Calling" advertisements it began in 2022, boasting "bigger paycheques" and "smaller rent cheques" to convince Canadians to make the move.

The last flux into Alberta was driven by improving economic prospects secondary to the oil boom. This current one is driven by cheap housing, which is similar to whats happened in other parts of the country where the chief impetus behind a population flux has been the availability of cheap land (ontario to the atlantic, gta to other parts of southern ontario etc.). In 2023 when we talk about "booming" cities, it has nothing to do improving with economic prospects but rather entirely based on how much cheap land is available with close proximity to southern ontario-like suburban amenities.

[Bobert]

Given the bad gdp numbers and the immense growth in population, how low has gdp capita fallen? Canada used to be on the higher end for advanced economies. Wouldn’t be surprised if we’re now in the middle or even lower.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by theman23

We're three weeks from the end of the year, and we're on pace for a population growth of about 1.7 million people this year, which is entirely driven by immigration. That's 700,000 more than last year's record of 1 million. I don't think there's any developed country in the world growing at this rate, and not even many developing countries are matching our pace.

I would like to point out that the Feds’ Ponzi Scheme of Great Enrichment only appears unsustainable at first sight; with more careful analysis of the situation one quickly realizes that there are several billion suckers out there on this planet who don’t compete for Canadian housing yet (enough to fuel the Scheme for a millennium or more!)

(Only half-joking; I’m probably going to close on several new buildings in early 2024, betting on the fact that neither Poilievre nor the Libs intend to drastically alter the Scheme.)