The Midwest: one region or two?

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Docere

The population of Ohio needs to stop declining first:

https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2022/11/0...n-the-greater-columbus-area-study-shows/

Not necessarily, IL could always shrink faster.

[Wigs]

2023 GDP (nominal) estimate

#5 Illinois $1.071Trillion
#7 Ohio $852.9B
#14 Michigan $645.3B
...
#19 Indiana $473.3B
#20 Minnesota $465B
#21 Wisconsin $417.3B
#22 Missouri $406.9B
...
#31 Iowa $241.2B
#34 Kansas $220.4B
#35 Nebraska $170.1B
...
#45 ND $73.9B
#47 SD $70.3B

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_GDP

Ohio has a bigger GDP gap with Michigan than I would have thought. Ohio is the 3rd largest manufacturing State after California and Texas. Missouri recently became a $400B State economy. I'm not sure about St. Louis, but Kansas City appears to be undergoing a noticeable resurgence.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Ohio has a bigger GDP gap with Michigan than I would have thought. Ohio is the 3rd largest manufacturing State after California and Texas. Missouri recently became a $400B State economy. I'm not sure about St. Louis, but Kansas City appears to be undergoing a noticeable resurgence.

Yeah, that is interesting. I believe Michigan had a higher per capita GDP than Ohio for a number of decades until the early 2000s. Columbus is probably the key differentiator, since it is fairly large and has a knowledge based economy.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Yeah, that is interesting. I believe Michigan had a higher per capita GDP than Ohio for a number of decades until the early 2000s. Columbus is probably the key differentiator, since it is fairly large and has a knowledge based economy.

It appears the largest Metro economies in Ohio are as follows (thanks dimondpark)

Cincinnati $186.1B (includes part of KY, IN)
Columbus $169.1B
Cleveland $162.8B
Dayton-Kettering $53.3B
$571B total for the top 4 metropolitan economies. Not bad, Ohio!

https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=257009

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Wigs

I've always thought Ohio really benefitted from the 3 large (by Canadian standards) 'C' Metros, and other decent sized Metros (Dayton, Akron, Toledo) unlike the Chicagoland setup of Illinois where one giant Metro has to carry the entire State.

IL and OH are at the opposite ends of the big state spectrum.

One single giant be-all end-all alpha city vs. a small constellation of beta and gamma cities.

There are pros and cons to each approach


If I were a farmer/small town dweller, I'd think the OH approach probably serves more people more effectively.

But as a confirmed big city dweller, the IL approach does have advantages too, if you happen live in the big city.

Their are certain things that happen when a city achieves a critical mass



For instance, if you happen to be a fan of skyscrapers (and who isn't?):

Buildings over 1,000':
IL - 5
OH - 0


Buildings over 750':
IL - 24
OH - 1


Buildings over 500':
IL - 138
OH - 12




Or if you're a fan of non-stop international flights.

# of non-stop overseas destinations:
IL - 40
OH - 3




But of course it's not all good stuff. Traffic, for one, is far worse in Chicagoland than anywhere in the state of Ohio. And the sheer size of the place means it typically takes more time to get places.

All that said, I'd likely be happy living in any of the 3C's were I not such a hopeless Chicagoan, but size does have its advantages. Smaller size does too.

[Wigs]

Steely, I totally get it from an urban perspective. You have it made with your setup for city life.

Nationally, Chicago's 2nd City status does not carry the heft it previously did for decades as other cities have become serious Metros, and potential corporation poachers.

I was more talking about having numerous Metros around the same size with different specializations in one State like Ohio might be better to stabilize the economy instead of up/down swings
Maybe it makes no difference vs. a State with one mega Metro like Chicagoland

Columbus - State capital, largest University-Ohio State and related entities, growing tech industry, insurance (Progressive, Nationwide)

Cleveland - nationally renowned massive Cleveland Clinic/Health Sciences, banking (Key Bank), Sherwin Williams

Cincinnati - Procter and 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵, Kroger, large children's hospital

Dayton - huge Wright Patterson AFB (apparently 6th largest employer in Ohio)

Also you never answered if you think Ohio could overtake Illinois in population in our lifetime? Or do you think that's too focused on the recent 2020 census snapshot?

[meh]

Originally Posted by Wigs

2023 GDP (nominal) estimate
Missouri recently became a $400B State economy. I'm not sure about St. Louis, but Kansas City appears to be undergoing a noticeable resurgence.

As of 2022, the St. Louis MSA GDP (~210B) is ~24% larger than the KC MSA GDP (~170B). St. Louis is Missouri's primary (and probably most abused) economic engine.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NGMP41180

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NGMP28140

The St. Louis MSA has the 4th largest Midwestern GDP after the Chicago, Minneapolis, and Detroit MSAs and its 5-year growth rate is the largest of the four.

https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=257009

[ColDayMan]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Yeah, that is interesting. I believe Michigan had a higher per capita GDP than Ohio for a number of decades until the early 2000s. Columbus is probably the key differentiator, since it is fairly large and has a knowledge based economy.

Just an FYI, I don't find any evidence of Michigan ever having a higher GDP in total or per capita than Ohio.

https://www.cashnetusa.com/blog/20-largest-state-economies-gdp-50-years/
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/gdp-gross-domestic-product

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by meh

As of 2022, the St. Louis MSA GDP (~210B) is ~24% larger than the KC MSA GDP (~170B). St. Louis is Missouri's primary (and probably most abused) economic engine.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NGMP41180

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NGMP28140

The St. Louis MSA has the 4th largest Midwestern GDP after the Chicago, Minneapolis, and Detroit MSAs and its 5-year growth rate is the largest of the four.

https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=257009

Thanks for the input.
I should state, I knew St. Louis is the larger Metro with the larger economy, I've just been tracking KC's progress as a city. Lots of development downtown, expanding streetcar, etc.

It appears both economies grew by around 9% from 2021-2022 (STL: ~8.85%, KC: ~9.25%). Those are great numbers. Keep it up, Missouri

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Wigs

I was more talking about having numerous Metros around the same size with different specializations in one State like Ohio might be better to stabilize the economy instead of up/down swings
Maybe it makes no difference vs. a State with one mega Metro like Chicagoland

Chicago is pretty economically diversified, so it doesn't tend to be very swingy, it's kind of a slow and steady tortoise these days.

But I do think downstate IL would've benefitted from a single city of consequence, instead of having all of the urban energy in the central part of the state divided up among the 5 triangle cities of Peoria, Springfield, Champaign, Bloomington, and Decatur.

I made a thread about it a little while ago:

Would IL have benefitted by concentrating development in its central region?

Originally Posted by Wigs

Also you never answered if you think Ohio could overtake Illinois in population in our lifetime? Or do you think that's too focused on the recent 2020 census snapshot?

Anything's possible.

Predicting population trends is a very tricky business.

I wouldn't place any bets on the likelihood of such happening.

[Docere]

It seems like Illinois outside Chicago is mostly Iowa with a bet of Missouri thrown in (i.e. St. Louis suburbs and the semi-southern sections).

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Docere

It seems like Illinois outside Chicago is mostly Iowa with a bet of Missouri thrown in (i.e. St. Louis suburbs and the semi-southern sections).

Accurate.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Docere

The population of Ohio needs to stop declining first:

https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2022/11/0...n-the-greater-columbus-area-study-shows/

The state's overall population has grown since 2000.

I'd wager that rural counties in Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, etc., are also in decline while the cities everyone constantly talks about continue to attract rural transplants.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Cincinnati - Procter and 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵, Kroger, large children's hospital

Dayton - huge Wright Patterson AFB (apparently 6th largest employer in Ohio)

There is a fair amount of aerospace in Cincinnati and Dayton.

[Docere]

Well, Ohio is known for its astronauts.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by Docere

Well, Ohio is known for its astronauts.

clearly to those growing up in Ohio, leaving Earth seems like a great choice

[Chef]

Originally Posted by Docere

It seems like Illinois outside Chicago is mostly Iowa with a bet of Missouri thrown in (i.e. St. Louis suburbs and the semi-southern sections).

It is more Indiana than Iowa in my mind.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by ColDayMan

Just an FYI, I don't find any evidence of Michigan ever having a higher GDP in total or per capita than Ohio.

https://www.cashnetusa.com/blog/20-largest-state-economies-gdp-50-years/
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/gdp-gross-domestic-product

I'm pretty sure MI had the highest or nearly the highest median household incomes in the U.S. for a stretch in the 1950's and 60's. So it was likely a wealthier state at some point. Not sure if it had a larger economy than Ohio, since Ohio was always larger, and had a similar-ish industrial base.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Chef

It is more Indiana than Iowa in my mind.

Yeah, Illinois minus Chicagoland is definitely Indiana, not Iowa.

Iowa is rolling hills, not flat, it's transitional to the Great Plains, it has a different cultural/political mix, it doesn't have the southern influences, etc. Iowa is more like Southern Minnesota.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by ColDayMan

Just an FYI, I don't find any evidence of Michigan ever having a higher GDP in total or per capita than Ohio.

https://www.cashnetusa.com/blog/20-largest-state-economies-gdp-50-years/
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/gdp-gross-domestic-product

Without digging too far, the first video shows that Michigan had a higher per capita GDP than Ohio at the beginning of the time period being examined. In 1963 Michigan's per capita GDP ($3,991) would've been roughly 14% higher than Ohio's ($3,515).

For perspective, the top 7 GDPs per capita would've been roughly as follows in 1963:

NY: $4,314
CA: $4,445
IL: $4,025
PA: $3,141
OH: $3,515
MI: $3,991
TX: $3,132

Originally Posted by Crawford

I'm pretty sure MI had the highest or nearly the highest median household incomes in the U.S. for a stretch in the 1950's and 60's. So it was likely a wealthier state at some point. Not sure if it had a larger economy than Ohio, since Ohio was always larger, and had a similar-ish industrial base.

Yes, the total economy of Ohio has probably always been larger than Michigan's since Ohio has always been a more populous state than Michigan.