Originally Posted by zahav
I agree with what others have said re: the premium product. Yes I know many airlines make a ton of $$ there, but for the majority of the travelling public who make up the majority of passenger numbers, it isn't a factor. Getting the non-stop routes, along with related feeder traffic, is the main accomplishment for airports and their enthusiasts. Sure it's good to have quality carriers and good product, but the connectivity with destinations is key. And it's not like YYC is like one of those Frontier Airlines or Spirit Airlines hubs/focus cities, where they get a lot of destinations but it's really bottom of the barrel quality and they are the only game in town.
WS is definitely getting closer and closer fortress hub, if not already. At this point it is looking at AC's current operations and figuring out which ones are absolute guarantees to be maintained. Honestly the only two mainline that are never going to dropped are YYZ and YVR, and probably YUL too, but far less locked in than YYZ or YVR. LHR is also likely to stay, but it is conceivable that the growth from WS to the UK and Europe is enough to make LHR uneconomical for AC, especially now that their inbound feed is slashed. I think EWR could be cut, I don't know if it's imminent or anything, but of the remaining mainline destinations, I could see it being axed. AC is not known for it's Western Canada to Eastern US service at all. Only up until very recently, YYC was basically getting the same service as YVR to that region, a daily NYC flight (EWR/JFK, same difference). And YVR was/is one of their big hubs, but still the eastern US service only just became acceptable, and still not great (they added more to BOS, IAD, and MIA, and upped EWR in frequency and larger equipment), but that's still not AMAZING service. So AC dropping EWR is not out of the realm of possibility.
For AC Express, it is already so pared down, but I think YEG and YWG are somewhat safe, but YMM, YQU, and YLW could absolutely be pushed out by WS, especially now that the international and transborder network is gone. There's no more YQU-LAX connections, for example. Basically it is connecting YMM and YQU to their hubs at YVR, YYZ, and YUL, and the only way is through YYC, so they want to keep it. Then there's YLW. It is very connected to YVR already on AC, so it's not like it would be orphaned if AC dropped the route, they'd still keep people on AC flights, just thru YVR. And WS throws sooo much capacity on YYC-YLW, it's insane, talk about David and Goliath... On a random summer day next year, WS mainline operates 4 flights (4x 737!), and then 4 more on WS Encore. 8 FLIGHTS! And AC? One DH4, so exactly like one of the Encore flights. So WS not only has four times as many equivalent flights as the AC one, but there's also four 737 jets on it too. The seat imbalance is mind boggling, truly. So ya, YLW could easily be cut. I didn't even both mentioning YXT because it is already a sad 4x weekly (Jazz doesn't really do sub-daily routes at all, this appears to be one of the few exceptions). So already an iffy commitment.
So overall, that leaves YVR, YEG, YWG, YYZ, and YUL as pretty sure sure keeps; LHR and as likely to stay but not safe enough; and EWR, YQU, YMM, YLW, and YXT as not safe at all, IMO.. AC knows YYC is a strong market, tons of positive fundamentals, and isn't a dying outpost. But they have never gained traction there, especially in the last few years when AC's other hubs were really strengthening, YYC was flat. But they know because the market is strong, someone else will step in and pick up and cuts, be it WS or others, it's not like when an airline pulls out of a smaller station and it can leave them totally unserved, AC knows already the minute they announce route cuts, the other airlines are waiting in the wings to fill the void, and then some. So really not end of the world.
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