White House releases new decennial MSA/CSA delineations

[xzmattzx]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

Your obsession with Delaware being its own thing is weird. It's a great little state. It's also a suburb of Philadelphia.

As the crow flies, the Delaware state line is what, 15 miles from the Philadelphia city line? Southern Delaware and Chester Counties (PA) are very intertwined with Delaware and Wilmington, specifically. It's one region.

I think different methodology is needed where cities basically overlap. Wilmington should be in the CSA, but I think it stands apart on a day-to-day level. It has its own corporate and commercial core of companies that bring people into Wilmington and the inner suburbs.

Trenton is about 10 miles from the Philadelphia city line and is in another metro. So there is precedence of cities close to major cities not being connected to that MSA.

I wonder what will happen if transit gets even better, or Pennsylvania becomes a place to commute from more and more, and Bucks County, which touches Philadelphia, switches to the New York City CSA. If it's solely on commuting patterns, then enough people living in Yardley or Levittown or Fairless Hills and driving to Princeton Junction to take the PATH up north could switch the county over.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by xzmattzx

I think different methodology is needed where cities basically overlap. Wilmington should be in the CSA, but I think it stands apart on a day-to-day level. It has its own corporate and commercial core of companies that bring people into Wilmington and the inner suburbs.

It stands "apart"? LOL.

Who's airport do you use? Who's media market are you in? Who's regional train system runs through your state? Matter of fact, the reason why Delaware can be so "low cost" in some respects is because PA provides it with much of it's transportation infrastructure. It's the ultimate free ride.

You're delusional. You're talking about a city of 70K deserving its own MSA in the middle of the Northeast's megapolis.

[TempleGuy1000]

he seems to not know who populates a majority of the jobs in Wilmington-area offices. The 202 corridor north of downtown going towards PA is the city's growth engine currently. Tons of people commute between the two places and it's much more populated than the areas south. I have no problem with Delawarean's having some state pride, but some perspective is needed.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by TempleGuy1000

he seems to not know who populates a majority of the jobs in Wilmington-area offices. The 202 corridor north of downtown going towards PA is the city's growth engine currently. Tons of people commute between the two places and it's much more populated than the areas south. I have no problem with Delawarean's having some state pride, but some perspective is needed.

Yes, this. It's a completely fluid region. I grew up in Upper Chichester Township. I had friends in high school who lived in homes where their backyard neighbors lived in Delaware. Go to your backfence to say "hi neighbor" and literally the guy lived in a different state. I have an Uncle that lives in Garnet Valley who moved there from North Wilmington and when his house was being built, he would walk out of his front door in North Wilmington and WALK over to his new construction house to check on it. His new subdivision in PA backs up to his old subdivision in Delaware. There are multiple subdivisions along the state line where one side of the street is PA and the other side is Delaware.

But yeah, it's its own thing. And like you said, not to mention that 10,000s of people who live in PA work in Wilmington (and vice versa), particularly along the 202 corridor.

[liat91]

New Haven and Litchfield counties are still closely tied to NY. Adding Sullivan completely nullifies any rationality in removing them.

Same with removing Sonoma county from the Bay and keeping Merced. Modesto is fine, but Merced?

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by liat91

New Haven and Litchfield counties are still closely tied to NY. Adding Sullivan completely nullifies any rationality in removing them.

Same with removing Sonoma county from the Bay and keeping Merced. Modesto is fine, but Merced?

The methodology is just weird, and results in seemingly random outcomes. There is no way that Sullivan County is commonly considered as part of the NY metro. It's a heavily wooded/mountainous weekend/second home destination in the Catskills.

And the Coastal CT counties have been linked to NYC since the 1920's. If you want to make them a separate MSA, ok, but that whole corridor has been urbanized for a century. Putting Fairfield and New Haven counties in separate CSAs is bizarre. It's like Orange County, CA in a separate CSA from LA County.

[MolsonExport]

Do cities spontaneously get bigger/better when these districts are reestablished? Seems to be an exercise in Okotoksianmanship.

[Antares41]

Originally Posted by Crawford

The methodology is just weird, and results in seemingly random outcomes. There is no way that Sullivan County is commonly considered as part of the NY metro. It's a heavily wooded/mountainous weekend/second home destination in the Catskills.

And the Coastal CT counties have been linked to NYC since the 1920's. If you want to make them a separate MSA, ok, but that whole corridor has been urbanized for a century. Putting Fairfield and New Haven counties in separate CSAs is bizarre. It's like Orange County, CA in a separate CSA from LA County.

I suspect as the impact of the pandemic wanes and more people are being request to return to offices the % commute between the new New Haven-Hartford CSA and NYC CSA will increase. As of 2022 the ridership NY/NH line had not reach pre-pandemic levels, ~80k/day versus 125K/day, respectively. For the 1st quarter of 2023 numbers on Metro-North are up 34% so the trend for NY/NH line is likely positive. Let's see what happens in 2030.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

The methodology is just weird, and results in seemingly random outcomes.

That's what happens when you define a very complex, and at times nebulous, concept like a "metropolitan area" by a single metric (commuter %) applied to one of the clumsiest geographical units available (counties).

It's how you end up with complete silliness like Kenosha county getting kicked out of the Chicago MSA while Jasper, Newtown, Grundy, and Dekalb counties remain.


When shit don't pass the sniff test........

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Antares41

I suspect as the impact of the pandemic wanes and more people are being request to return to offices the % commute between the new New Haven-Hartford CSA and NYC CSA will increase. As of 2022 the ridership NY/NH line had not reach pre-pandemic levels, ~80k/day versus 125K/day, respectively. For the 1st quarter of 2023 numbers on Metro-North are up 34% so the trend for NY/NH line is likely positive. Let's see what happens in 2030.

Right, yeah, I thought of this, and that commuter belt is heavily dependent on New Haven line traffic, which was obviously way down during the pandemic and has taken a while to recover. The recovery has been pretty strong this year, and it looks likely that 2030 might be a consolidated CSA again, but this time including Hartford.

But then it makes the Census classifications even dumber. Why would a place be a metro or not based on a pandemic, or a disruption in commuting patterns? And how does that explain Sullivan County, which only has relatively limited bus service to Manhattan (and the bus service is built more around weekending, not really daily commutes)?

Maybe with Sullivan County, since it's second home land, people were recording their employment in Manhattan and their residence in Sullivan, even though it's generally NYC residents who were temporarily living full-time in Sullivan? So Sullivan might also drop off next decade?

[Antares41]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Right, yeah, I thought of this, and that commuter belt is heavily dependent on New Haven line traffic, which was obviously way down during the pandemic and has taken a while to recover. The recovery has been pretty strong this year, and it looks likely that 2030 might be a consolidated CSA again, but this time including Hartford.

The new line between Hartford and New Haven just opened in 2018. So the pandemic interrupted it growth. If ridership continues its upward climb it not out of the realm of thinking that Hartford could be included in a consolidated CSA if ridership reaches that 15% threshold. In addition, CT is committed to using the Biden Infrastructure Fund to be administered to the NE rail corridor to reduce travel time between NYC and New Haven by 10 and eventually 25 mins. this will also provide further stimulus to booster ridership on the line from Hartford to NYC.

[TWAK]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

That's what happens when you define a very complex, and at times nebulous, concept like a "metropolitan area" by a single metric (commuter %) applied to one of the clumsiest geographical units available (counties).

It's how you end up with complete silliness like Kenosha county getting kicked out of the Chicago MSA while Jasper, Newtown, Grundy, and Dekalb counties remain.


When shit don't pass the sniff test........

I think using counties is a little better than just using commuter %, but I'm one of those people that likes to have their favorite metro be hella big.

Distance could be used, or a radius...but then places with geographical barriers would have issues. Media market, perhaps?

[ChiSoxRox]

IMO the best metric would be building density per census tract. Granular enough to avoid the "Los Angeles bordering Las Vegas" issue, and using density means using the physical form of the city. Basically a "look from the plane and see where Chicago ends" metric.

[TWAK]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

IMO the best metric would be building density per census tract. Granular enough to avoid the "Los Angeles bordering Las Vegas" issue, and using density means using the physical form of the city. Basically a "look from the plane and see where Chicago ends" metric.

That one I think works pretty good, especially out west when development abruptly stops. You can easily see where the Phoenix or the Las Vegas metro ends.

[Quixote]

New Haven has always been fringe NYC area and more of its own entity.

Sonoma County, on the other hand, is quintessential north Bay Area. It makes no sense that the two counties to the east and west of it are formally recognized as belonging to the greater Bay Area population, while it itself isn’t.

Nevertheless, it’s indisputable that Sonoma County is in the Bay Area, even if not of it. Sort of like Philly vis-a-vis Mercer County. A majority of the county population lives in Trenton and Hamilton and Ewing Townships. It’s clearly more in the Philadelphia metropolitan area.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Quixote

New Haven has always been fringe NYC area and more of its own entity.

It has its own centers of gravity, but Coastal CT is the quinticental suburban destination for Manhattan professionals. It's arguably more tied to Manhattan than Staten Island. And the Census isn't distinguishing NYC from CT, it's distinguishing Coastal CT from Coastal CT. Fairfield and New Haven are apparently not only in separate metros, they're in separate CSAs.

75 years ago, when Cary Grant moved his affluent UES family to the suburbs, in "Mr. Blandings Built His Dream House" he went to New Milford, Connecticut. Lucy and Desi followed a few years later. Northeast Queens and Staten Island will still largely empty. Even a small portion of SE Brooklyn was empty. The CT coast was already built out to New Haven.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/28/realestate/mr-blandings-dream-house-75-years.html

Originally Posted by Quixote

Nevertheless, it’s indisputable that Sonoma County is in the Bay Area, even if not of it. Sort of like Philly vis-a-vis Mercer County. A majority of the county population lives in Trenton and Hamilton and Ewing Townships. It’s clearly more in the Philadelphia metropolitan area.

There's zero case for Mercer as part of Philly metro. The share of Bucks commuters to NY is higher than the share of Mercer commuters to Philly. Trenton, Hamilton and Ewing Twps. are all far more tied northwards. In fact Hamilton/Ewing have no Philly-bound transit, and Hamilton station is busier than any station in the entire Septa suburban network. Trenton station has around 5 times the commuter traffic northwards compared to southwards (and that doesn't count the fact that some of the southwards traffic is an extension of northwards commutes).

[xzmattzx]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

IMO the best metric would be building density per census tract. Granular enough to avoid the "Los Angeles bordering Las Vegas" issue, and using density means using the physical form of the city. Basically a "look from the plane and see where Chicago ends" metric.

That's what I would use as well. Then you can divide up the Bos-Wash megalopolis more appropriately as well. You could also subdivide better also, like I want with Wilmington, and like seems to be the case with New York City and New Haven and Hartford.

[Quixote]

Originally Posted by Crawford

It has its own centers of gravity, but Coastal CT is the quinticental suburban destination for Manhattan professionals. It's arguably more tied to Manhattan than Staten Island. And the Census isn't distinguishing NYC from CT, it's distinguishing Coastal CT from Coastal CT. Fairfield and New Haven are apparently not only in separate metros, they're in separate CSAs.

75 years ago, when Cary Grant moved his affluent UES family to the suburbs, in "Mr. Blandings Built His Dream House" he went to New Milford, Connecticut. Lucy and Desi followed a few years later. Northeast Queens and Staten Island will still largely empty. Even a small portion of SE Brooklyn was empty. The CT coast was already built out to New Haven.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/28/realestate/mr-blandings-dream-house-75-years.html



There's zero case for Mercer as part of Philly metro. The share of Bucks commuters to NY is higher than the share of Mercer commuters to Philly. Trenton, Hamilton and Ewing Twps. are all far more tied northwards. In fact Hamilton/Ewing have no Philly-bound transit, and Hamilton station is busier than any station in the entire Septa suburban network. Trenton station has around 5 times the commuter traffic northwards compared to southwards (and that doesn't count the fact that some of the southwards traffic is an extension of northwards commutes).

I remember you once saying that you didn't consider Yale and Princeton "NYC area" schools. Have you changed your mind?

I'm with you on New Haven. When asked, a former colleague from the northern part of NH county confirmed that he considered himself to be from the Greater NYC area (as opposed to Hartford).

As for Mercer County, commuting is one thing. Cultural and geographic connections are another. Case in point: Merced is "Bay Area" but Sonoma isn't?

[TWAK]

Sears Point (southern tip of Sonoma County) to the Golden Gate Bridge parking lot:

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Quixote

Nevertheless, it’s indisputable that Sonoma County is in the Bay Area, even if not of it.

Yeah, it's part of the North Bay along with the bulk of the wine country. Wouldn't want to commute from Petaluma to SF though...