Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

And what a dismal bucket that is. If Holt and the Liberals are smart, they will shift their campaign focus towards solutions and promises to build more housing.

Affordable rental housing, transitional housing, and homeless shelters need to be better funded than they have been under the Higgs PCs, and they can make this the hallmark of their critique of the currently inadequate response from the PCs to the housing crisis and homelessness epidemic. That should be their focus, not harm reduction strategies and allowing sanctioned tent cities to pop up.

FDR effectively used “Hoovervilles” against Hoover and won the 1932 in landslide. Holt should be trying to do the same thing, blaming these tents cities on Higgs and promising to support better solutions to build our way out of this crisis.

Enabling people clearly isn’t the way to win on this issue, though, I don’t exactly think harm reduction and tent cities are cornerstones of the Liberal platform. For such a hot button topic, none of the major parties have really said much on the issue of homelessness, addiction, and the associated rise in crime. It really shouldn’t be that hard for Holt and the Liberals to lay the blame squarely on Higgs for these issues… they’ve been in power nearly 6 years now, and the situation has gotten progressively worse.

Harm reduction is in a liberal camp. Hickey is all in, and so is Holt. I lost count how many times she referred or met with river stone doctor. The same one placing transitional housing next to George street middle school.

[adamuptownsj]

Holt is a bog-standard NB Liberal who recruited better candidates than normal in English seats. She's not some 'all things to all people' centrist (nor is she a committed leftist, of course), and she's not going to upset the NGO consensus apple cart. Would it be smart for her to moderate on this particular issue? Very. Will she? Probably not. Will this cost Hickey a seat? Possibly.

[TitleRequired]

Who got the nod in SJ Harbour for the PC's last night?

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

Who got the nod in SJ Harbour for the PC's last night?

Adam Smith

Pretty sure it's this guy....... He ran for the nomination in Lancaster but didn't get it.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-smi...alSubdomain=ca

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Adam Smith

Pretty sure it's this guy....... He ran for the nomination in Lancaster but didn't get it.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-smi...alSubdomain=ca

Well, at least we know he knows his economics!

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

A MAJORITY of police, firefighter, and I believe paramedic calls in the city are to this one area. There is serious burnout among all three professions. They're bringing the same guy back to life three times a month and arresting him twice in the same time span. Less than 4% of the city's population lives there. Developers are being constantly stolen from. Who's going to want to live at Steepleview, let alone pay a premium for St. Vincent's, in this mess?

Moncton has a similar issue. A lot of emergency services "eaten up" by overdoses and campfires run-amok. Sadly, I don't think a lot of the people I regularly see wandering downtown would benefit from "volountary" treatment. They don't appear to know where the sidewalk is, what a car is, or that invisible friends aren't real.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by Nashe

Moncton has a similar issue. A lot of emergency services "eaten up" by overdoses and campfires run-amok. Sadly, I don't think a lot of the people I regularly see wandering downtown would benefit from "volountary" treatment. They don't appear to know where the sidewalk is, what a car is, or that invisible friends aren't real.

It would be interesting to know the percentages of homelessness linked to mental illness vs drug addiction and what the percentage is that suffer from both.

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by sailor734

It would be interesting to know the percentages of homelessness linked to mental illness vs drug addiction and what the percentage is that suffer from both.

I'd imagine at a certain point it becomes a moebius strip of the three, with each reinforcing the other. Knowing which one to start with is probably on a case by case basis and I don't see a lot of political will to figure all those out. At some point, you might not even have much left to work with.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by Nashe

I'd imagine at a certain point it becomes a moebius strip of the three, with each reinforcing the other. Knowing which one to start with is probably on a case by case basis and I don't see a lot of political will to figure all those out. At some point, you might not even have much left to work with.

That is an elegant but disheartening description.

Does it matter what the co-morbidities are though, I ask rhetorically. A recent paper (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-...uana/104116952) on cannabis (!!) suggested that schizophrenia symptoms can be worsened or induced with weed, and that for these folks holding a job or housing is virtually impossible.

I could see that some patients it will be like peeling the layers of an onion. Substance Abuse -> Mental Health Problems -> etc...

[TitleRequired]

PC Party candidate site is now published.

SJ Harbour candidate did not get a facebook congratulations yet, nor is he listed on the candidate page. The bathurst candidate is, and had a glowing congratulations on the facebook.

I wonder if there are second thoughts in head office?

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

PC Party candidate site is now published.

SJ Harbour candidate did not get a facebook congratulations yet, nor is he listed on the candidate page. The bathurst candidate is, and had a glowing congratulations on the facebook.

I wonder if there are second thoughts in head office?

Still no mention of the SJ Harbour candidate.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

PC Party candidate site is now published.

SJ Harbour candidate did not get a facebook congratulations yet, nor is he listed on the candidate page. The bathurst candidate is, and had a glowing congratulations on the facebook.

I wonder if there are second thoughts in head office?

Looks like it's Smith. Perhaps Bathurst was a long-known coronation and the PR was written in advance, while SJ Harbour was actively contested?

Candidate update. Seven new candidates in the last week or two total.

Lib 47, N/C since last update (plus Carleton-Victoria and Fredericton-Grand Lake scheduled this week; official campaign kickoff is Sunday)
PC 38, +2 since last update (nothing else scheduled and all English majority seats filled)
Grn 27, +1 since last update
NDP 19, +2 since last update
PA 13, +2 since last update
Libertarians 0
Independents 0

No new 5-candidate races; currently there are 5. There are 7 4-way races, missing 3 NDP and 4 PA candidates in total for full slates.

Opinion:

Liberals are wrapped up and would have to consider their nominations a success. It will make an odd majority caucus if they win. 2/3 North Shore and greater Dieppe party main-liners, and a mix of conventional urban Anglo Liberals and suburban/rural explicit moderates.

From what I've heard, there's some 'heavy hitter' PC candidates coming up north, mostly well-known municipal elected officials. Tilting at windmills IMO, but the 2020 nadir will likely not be eclipsed. PC weak spot is most likely to be Kent/Dieppe/Shediac area, but they will of course have a full slate. A PC majority government would be similar geographically to the last two, but I am sure Glen Savoie would be fine with handing off his Francophonie ministry to someone with... a shorter commute, should one slip in.

Greens are missing candidates in 11 French-majority ridings: 10 up north and Champdore-Irishtown. AFAIK this is where their big push was planned. Perhaps they're holding their fire like the PCs appear to be, and they'll have a full slate too, but I'm not expecting many star candidates at this point. I am not in the know, but other than Serge Brideau and the Fredericton-area nominees, it's not a potent slate. They've got an off chance of beating Holt (FTR I don't think they will) but where a 4th seat would otherwise come from, IDK.

NDP seem to be pulling slates together in Greater SJ, the North Shore, and Anglo Moncton reasonably well. PA the same, around Miramichi and in the rural Fredericton area. Neither has a hope in hell of entering the Legislature, but both could breach 5% with reasonably full slates. PA actually has a candidate in a majority-French seat this time (Kent North).

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Greens are missing candidates in 11 French-majority ridings: 10 up north and Champdore-Irishtown. AFAIK this is where their big push was planned. Perhaps they're holding their fire like the PCs appear to be, and they'll have a full slate too, but I'm not expecting many star candidates at this point. I am not in the know, but other than Serge Brideau and the Fredericton-area nominees, it's not a potent slate. They've got an off chance of beating Holt (FTR I don't think they will) but where a 4th seat would otherwise come from, IDK.

As your reminder, I ran through the candidate list, out of curiosity.

Agree that there isn't much of depth here. Mariah Darling has yet to be elected anywhere and is a single issue candidate. Joanna Killen hasn't shown to be an effective municipal councilor and business person (rip slocum and ferris...); how would her being elected as an MLA change her effectiveness?

Mind you it does set up a interesting left wing vote split.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

As your reminder, I ran through the candidate list, out of curiosity.

Agree that there isn't much of depth here. Mariah Darling has yet to be elected anywhere and is a single issue candidate. Joanna Killen hasn't shown to be an effective municipal councilor and business person (rip slocum and ferris...); how would her being elected as an MLA change her effectiveness?

Mind you it does set up a interesting left wing vote split.

I disagree. Killen is widely loathed, especially in comparison to Norton and in association with Harris, and Darling is a last name and a 2021 style social justice candidate. If anything, they allow the Liberal candidates to pivot to the centre more easily. Compare and contrast with Simon Ouellette in Fredericton South-Silverwood, who actually has a resume, a campaign organization, and will plausibly hold a good chunk of Coon's 2020 voters.

I've got Lancaster as a PC hold, albeit by reduced margins from 2020's 54-22 win, and Harbour as a narrow Liberal flip... although I had it painted as a likely Liberal flip three months ago.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

I disagree. Killen is widely loathed, especially in comparison to Norton and in association with Harris, and Darling is a last name and a 2021 style social justice candidate. If anything, they allow the Liberal candidates to pivot to the centre more easily. Compare and contrast with Simon Ouellette in Fredericton South-Silverwood, who actually has a resume, a campaign organization, and will plausibly hold a good chunk of Coon's 2020 voters.

I've got Lancaster as a PC hold, albeit by reduced margins from 2020's 54-22 win, and Harbour as a narrow Liberal flip... although I had it painted as a likely Liberal flip three months ago.

Nothing to disagree with

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

Just saw this on Twitter. "The Liberals have announced their last candidate - Kevin Dignam in Fredericton Grand Lake. The Liberals have now named their entire slate.

The last two formal nominations will be this weekend: Dignam on Saturday and Leader Susan Holt in Fredericton South Silverwood on Sunday."

So the Liberals have a full Slate. First party to do so. Not super surprising.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

I disagree. Killen is widely loathed, especially in comparison to Norton and in association with Harris, and Darling is a last name and a 2021 style social justice candidate. If anything, they allow the Liberal candidates to pivot to the centre more easily. Compare and contrast with Simon Ouellette in Fredericton South-Silverwood, who actually has a resume, a campaign organization, and will plausibly hold a good chunk of Coon's 2020 voters.

I've got Lancaster as a PC hold, albeit by reduced margins from 2020's 54-22 win, and Harbour as a narrow Liberal flip... although I had it painted as a likely Liberal flip three months ago.

Do you think the Liberals have any chance in Saint John Portland? It's the only other SJ seat besides Harbour that 338Canada has as "PC leaning" rather than "safe' or "likely"

FWIW they have zero seats in SJ as going Liberal as of this point in time.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Do you think the Liberals have any chance in Saint John Portland? It's the only other SJ seat besides Harbour that 338Canada has as "PC leaning" rather than "safe' or "likely"

FWIW they have zero seats in SJ as going Liberal as of this point in time.

338 goes off uniform swing, which is complicated by the likely electoral collapse of PA, the mild upswing of the NDP, and the improved Liberal slate in Anglotopia/PC slate in Frenchland.

I doubt the shockingly bad Liberal performance in Anglo NB is repeated (and the PCs probably get an electorally-irrelevant dead cat bounce up north if the nominees are locally strong). But it's HARD to come back from losing ridings like 55-25 for two cycles, even with Dornan types. I've currently got Portland-Simonds as Likely PC. Less certain than Lancaster, sure. But still likely blue. I don't see Savoie losing.

[gtsoc]

Not sure how much stock to put in the 338 predictions right now. They’ve got Hampton as a safe PC but I can say as being a resident I have not met or talked to someone who will be voting for Faytene.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by gtsoc

Not sure how much stock to put in the 338 predictions right now. They’ve got Hampton as a safe PC but I can say as being a resident I have not met or talked to someone who will be voting for Faytene.

That’s an interesting comment. Faytene is obviously up against an opponent with requisite experience running an electoral campaign; and a winning record with another team.

While this isn’t another Carey Parish, could be interesting election night.