Canadian Federal Election

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

So I just heard from a friend of a friend who is connected to CPC campaign planners and found out something interesting. According to their internal polling, the CPC has actually gained more 2021 NDP voters than 2021 LPC voters and 2021 LPC voters switching to the CPC make up only about 3-4% of the total electorate. The implication was that Carney or Freeland winning back former LPC voters from the CPC won't actually move the needle much.

This would also explain why the CPC has put so much time into attacking Singh and painting him as a useless LPC puppet. It's clearly attracting former NDP supporters.

Not surprised...this is the "traditional" NDP voice Niwell was referring to that feels abandoned by Singh's NDP. The old school NDP is best exemplified in recent times by Rachel Notley. It's telling that the NDP's champagne socialists in the Annex and Beaches no longer view the traditional working class as part of their base anymore.

Originally Posted by niwell

Yes the "traditional" NDP voice is pretty disillusioned with the party right now from my experience. Singh seems like a nice enough guy but the vision is sorely lacking at a time when an economic based Social Democratic party platform should (in theory) be able to make significant inroads. Not enough to win of course, but actually provide an alternative voice in Canadian politics.

100% concur.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I don't know if we are so ungovernable as the UK that PP gets that unpopular within months though PP does promise to fix a lot of things that are pretty structural.

Does Singh survive to fight a 2029 election? It's easy to dismiss your NDP claim of support for a social democratic platform but I think if PP fails and makes life dramatically worse which isn't unlikely I think you could be right.

Singh would have to quit in my scenario, I think. They need a rebrand and a reboot almost more than the LPC does.

[BlackDog204]

All PP and the Conservatives have done, is shit all over Trudeau and the Liberal. They have offered no solutions whatsoever, in regards to how to deal with Trump, housing, health care, etc.

PP is also extremely unlikeable.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Sounds like BS to me. Who are these mythical NDP voters that prefer the Conservative Party to the Liberal Party? I’ve heard of people voting against their own self interest or who are ideologically inconsistent, but this would be some next level stuff in both regards. I’m highly skeptical there’s a significant number of NDP voters from 2019 and 2021 that will suddenly vote CPC in 2025.

The NDP currently has more political power than they’ve had in 50 years, and their supporters often point out that NDP forced the Liberals to move on things like pharmacare, dental care, among others. Singh has hardly been a puppet for the Liberals.

You really need to get out of your bubble. Orange-blue switchers are absolutely a thing. In Hamilton/Niagara, Windsor, Saskatchewan, large swaths of BC, etc they're the largest single piece of swing voters. They're relatively common in blue collar communities but mostly unheard of in white collar communities.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

PP is also extremely unlikeable.

Not really.



SSP is such a white collar bubble it's almost hilarious.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

You really need to get out of your bubble. Orange-blue switchers are absolutely a thing. In Hamilton/Niagara, Windsor, Saskatchewan, large swaths of BC, etc they're the largest single piece of swing voters. They're relatively common in blue collar communities but mostly unheard of in white collar communities.

Absolutely it's a big swath of the electorate. It's hard for white collar education folks to understand as they think voters have some knowledge and awareness of the policies they are voting for. It's largely based on vibes for a lot of low information votes. Though there are also people who just won't vote Liberal for historical reasons and when they decide the country needs a change they only have one choice.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Absolutely it's a big swath of the electorate. It's hard for white collar education folks to understand as they think voters have some knowledge and awareness of the policies they are voting for. It's largely based on vibes for a lot of low information votes. Though there are also people who just won't vote Liberal for historical reasons and when they decide the country needs a change they only have one choice.

A lot of it also that for a lot of voters, the left/right dichotomy is less important to them than a sort of elites/grassroots dichotomy. And the Liberals get seen as the former & the NDP and Conservatives are seen as occupying the latter. PP has moved the CPC more firmly into the later category and Singh has moved the NDP more in the former category, hence why PP is doing really well among the orange-blue switchers.

One of the reasons why the provincial NDPs in the Prairies do so much better than even the combined federal NDP + federal LPC support in those same provinces is because Prairie New Democrats are way better at appealing to the orange-blue switchers. Look at how popular NDP premier Wab Kinew is in Manitoba versus the insanely high CPC lead in federal polling in Manitoba. There mathematically has to be at least 20% of the electorate in Manitoba that approves of both Kinew and Pollievre.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

Carney is an extremely accomplished, highly competent individual with a ridiculously robust CV, whose politics run gently to the left but who is also ultimately a pragmatist. Poilievre is a reactionary opportunist who has spent his entire adult life as an undinstinguished minor politician until his recent success capitalizing on disgruntlement with the Liberals. (I don't think he's a Trumpian figure, but it's unfortunate that he has no problem sidling up to those elements.)

In spite of the fact that Carney is clearly vastly more qualified, Poilievre is still highly likely to be the next PM, simply due to timing. But I think he's probably already achieved his zenith of popularity, or even recently passed it. Once the Trudeau Liberals are officially in the rear-view, and Poilievre actually has to govern, his seemingly bulletproof stature is going to come crashing down to Earth.

Couldn't have said it better myself

[kwoldtimer]

Politics can get weird - Freeland, long time Minsiter of Everything and Deputy Prime Minister says she's "running against the Ottawa Establishment".

Both she and Carney (especially) need to get out there, press the flesh, and show that they've got the common touch. PP will label them "elites" anyway.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Politics can get weird - Freeland, long time Minsiter of Everything and Deputy Prime Minister says she's "running against the Ottawa Establishment".

Both she and Carney (especially) need to get out there, press the flesh, and show that they've got the common touch. PP will label them "elites" anyway.

Karina Gould is trying the same. It stretches credibility TBH.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by theman23

Karina Gould is trying the same. It stretches credibility TBH.

Gould has low name recognition with the general public so she could easily build an "outsider brand" even if it's not really founded on reality.

Freeland is clearly trying to take advantage of the fact that a lot of the more unpopular Liberals have endorsed Carney so far (it's actually quite striking if you look at the list), while (with the notable exception of Wayne Long) those that are more on the "outs" are on the list of those endorsing Freeland. Which is actually surprising - I would have expected the opposite if you had asked me two weeks ago.

[casper]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Politics can get weird - Freeland, long time Minsiter of Everything and Deputy Prime Minister says she's "running against the Ottawa Establishment".

Both she and Carney (especially) need to get out there, press the flesh, and show that they've got the common touch. PP will label them "elites" anyway.

My preference would be honest and authentic. They are both "elites" your word, not mine. They are are who they are. To do otherwise is counter productive as no one buys it.

Same thing with PP wearing jeans in a farms field eating an apple. That is not him.

Same thing as Trump getting into a dump truck or Trudeau doing a photo op behind the counter at a Tim Hortons.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by casper

My preference would be honest and authentic. They are both "elites" your word, not mine. They are are who they are. To do otherwise is counter productive as no one buys it.

Same thing with PP wearing jeans in a farms field eating an apple. That is not him.

Same thing as Trump getting into a dump truck or Trudeau doing a photo op behind the counter at a Tim Hortons.

Politicians all do that because of how important it is to perceived as relatable by voters. Nobody wants to be ruled by elites.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Politicians all do that because of how important it is to perceived as relatable by voters. Nobody wants to be ruled by elites.

Sadly. I guess I'm an exception to the rule.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Sadly. I guess I'm an exception to the rule.

I ask this question earnestly and not maliciously.. why bother supporting democracy then? Sounds like you'd prefer a technocracy.

[Build.It]

Poilievre has spoken individually with thousands, possibly 50,000+ ordinary Canadians over the past 3 years.

Carney has talked to none.

This, amongst many reasons, is why he will lose badly.

I stick to my assertion that Cons win with 250+ seats and 50+% popular vote.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Build.It

Poilievre has spoken individually with thousands, possibly 50,000+ ordinary Canadians over the past 3 years.

Carney has talked to none.

This, amongst many reasons, is why he will lose badly.

I stick to my assertion that Cons win with 250+ seats and 50+% popular vote.

I agree that the CPC will win very large majority but I don't think it will be that large. That's very dramatic. Maybe if Arya won the leadership race through foreign interference.

[Marty_Mcfly]

I don't believe it will be that large either, the mere fact that this election isn't involving Trudeau will save some Liberal seats in places like Toronto.

My guess as of right now, is that it would likely be a CPC win hovering around 200 seats, with a popular vote somewhere around 41%.

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Great post.

Carney has failed miserably in each of his roles. He is an underperformer with fancy job titles.

He lit the fuse for the Canadian housing bubble by introducing quantitative easing into our economy. Your kids have Carney to thank for possibly never being able to buy a house.

He then took this exact same monetary philosophy to the UK, printed an ungodly amount of money, and watched the UK's economy fail to grow for 7 years. Shortly after he left they started to grow again.

Then he joined Briokfield as their head of investments and under his guidance saw Brookfield fail to make profit in one of the greatest bull markets of all time the past 2 years.

Finally, he teamed up with Trudeau, recommending fiscal policy since 2020, culminating in the largest deficits our country has ever had, and the highest inflation since the 70s.

He is a smooth talking snake and would be an absolute disaster for Canada, far worse than Trudeau.

Freeland annoys me to no-end but is relatively benign. But Carney scares the hell out of me - people like him are extremely dangerous.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Politics can get weird - Freeland, long time Minsiter of Everything and Deputy Prime Minister says she's "running against the Ottawa Establishment".

Both she and Carney (especially) need to get out there, press the flesh, and show that they've got the common touch. PP will label them "elites" anyway.

She’s got quite the reality distortion field if she honestly believes that… she’s been quite literally the second most recognizable face associated with the current government.

I’ve noticed Carney’s Instagram presence is growing considerably, including lots of clips of him getting out there and talking with average Canadians.