Canadian Federal Election

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by Loco101

The Ontario provincial election may give us a good indication of what will happen in the federal one. It is very true that Ontario as a whole doesn't like having the same parties in both federally and provincially at the same time.

Some people think it's a guaranteed win for the Ford PCs. I don't. Ontario has had many (and maybe most?) elections over the last 40 years where the party ahead at the beginning of the campaign in polls didn't end up winning. In 1990 the Liberals had around a 20 point lead over both the NDP and PCs. But the NDP ended up winning a majority government as voters were upset that Liberal Premier David Peterson called an election at just under 3 years into their mandate. Many voters voted NDP in protest. Peterson thought his government would be easily re-elected before the worst parts of the recession at that time hit. Ford is very vulnerable when it comes to health care issues as his promise to end "hallway healthcare" wasn't fulfilled and things have actually gotten worse with a record number of Ontarians not having a family doctor.

If I had to guess I would say that a Ford majority victory will mean that most federal seats will go Liberal federally with a new leader in place. If the Ford PCs lose or even have a minority win then the PP CPC will probably do very well in the province. It's rare to see Ontario trend the same way at both levels of government.

The wildcard is if the NDP were to win provincially in Ontario. I really don't see it happening but the party leader and leader of the official opposition Marit Stiles does have a lot of charisma and character. She's originally from St. John's NL and recently did a video address to Donald Trump which is was played across American media and got a lot of views.

I think voters react provincially to the federal results more so than the other way around. Ford winning in Ontario isn't a drag on the CPC later like the CPC winning would be on the 2026 Ontario election. Many of the so called experts said Sheer's biggest mistake in the 2019 Federal election was not utilizing Ford in Ontario

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Mods please add NDP, Greens, Bloc Québécois and PPC to this kind of poll. There are more than two parties.

Yet, in Canada’s 158 year history, we’ve only seen Liberal and Conservative Prime Ministers.

As I said in the OP, feel free to mention other leaders and parties in the comments, i just think it’s more interesting to see who people that support other parties would pick between the two front runners that actually have a realistic chance at becoming Prime Minister.

Consider it an exercise in strategic voting. ^_^

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Build.It

What is Carney's vision specifically?

Macro economic stability?

[shreddog]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Yet, in Canada’s 158 year history, we’ve only seen Liberal and Conservative Prime Ministers.

FWIW, shouldn't you have "Christia Freeland's Liberals" as an option? Or can PMs only be men?

[shreddog]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Macro economic stability?

Which means what exactly??

[suburbanite]

Originally Posted by shreddog

Which means what exactly??

Perpetual monetary stimulus?

[niwell]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Actually, no. Most of the NDP base would be quite angry at Singh if we decided to prop up the Liberals again, especially if said Liberal leader is Carney. It was the NDP base that has been demanding Singh pull support from Trudeau for months now.

Yes the "traditional" NDP voice is pretty disillusioned with the party right now from my experience. Singh seems like a nice enough guy but the vision is sorely lacking at a time when an economic based Social Democratic party platform should (in theory) be able to make significant inroads. Not enough to win of course, but actually provide an alternative voice in Canadian politics.


I didn't vote in the poll but given that the question is "vision" you could make a compelling argument that it really should go to PP. Now, I happen to not particularly *like* that vision but it's... something. The LPC is probably better off under Carney in this respect than the current state of affairs but they aren't exactly going to do anything radical.

[Bcasey25raptor]

I like Carney and am excited to see him be Prime Minister. I will be voting Liberal in the election

[Ozabald]

Originally Posted by shreddog

FWIW, shouldn't you have "Christia Freeland's Liberals" as an option? Or can PMs only be men?

Justin did publicly comment Harris' election loss was a setback for women. Wonder if he will feel the same if Carney defeats Freeland or Gould. If the Liberals select another male as their leader, wouldn't that be a setback for women?

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by shreddog

Which means what exactly??

Peace, justice, and the Canadian way.

[Hecate]

The liberal men should stand aside and let a woman lead then. Practice what you preach.

[Drybrain]

Carney is an extremely accomplished, highly competent individual with a ridiculously robust CV, whose politics run gently to the left but who is also ultimately a pragmatist. Poilievre is a reactionary opportunist who has spent his entire adult life as an undinstinguished minor politician until his recent success capitalizing on disgruntlement with the Liberals. (I don't think he's a Trumpian figure, but it's unfortunate that he has no problem sidling up to those elements.)

In spite of the fact that Carney is clearly vastly more qualified, Poilievre is still highly likely to be the next PM, simply due to timing. But I think he's probably already achieved his zenith of popularity, or even recently passed it. Once the Trudeau Liberals are officially in the rear-view, and Poilievre actually has to govern, his seemingly bulletproof stature is going to come crashing down to Earth.

[WarrenC12]

PP and his supporters here seem pretty threatened by Carney already. That should tell you all you need to know.

[harls]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

PP and his supporters here seem pretty threatened by Carney already. That should tell you all you need to know.

*apple munching intensifies*

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

Carney is an extremely accomplished, highly competent individual with a ridiculously robust CV, whose politics run gently to the left but who is also ultimately a pragmatist. Poilievre is a reactionary opportunist who has spent his entire adult life as an undinstinguished minor politician until his recent success capitalizing on disgruntlement with the Liberals. (I don't think he's a Trumpian figure, but it's unfortunate that he has no problem sidling up to those elements.)

In spite of the fact that Carney is clearly vastly more qualified, Poilievre is still highly likely to be the next PM, simply due to timing. But I think he's probably already achieved his zenith of popularity, or even recently passed it. Once the Trudeau Liberals are officially in the rear-view, and Poilievre actually has to govern, his seemingly bulletproof stature is going to come crashing down to Earth.

Great post.

[1overcosc]

So I just heard from a friend of a friend who is connected to CPC campaign planners and found out something interesting. According to their internal polling, the CPC has actually gained more 2021 NDP voters than 2021 LPC voters and 2021 LPC voters switching to the CPC make up only about 3-4% of the total electorate. The implication was that Carney or Freeland winning back former LPC voters from the CPC won't actually move the needle much.

This would also explain why the CPC has put so much time into attacking Singh and painting him as a useless LPC puppet. It's clearly attracting former NDP supporters.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

Carney is an extremely accomplished, highly competent individual with a ridiculously robust CV, whose politics run gently to the left but who is also ultimately a pragmatist. Poilievre is a reactionary opportunist who has spent his entire adult life as an undinstinguished minor politician until his recent success capitalizing on disgruntlement with the Liberals. (I don't think he's a Trumpian figure, but it's unfortunate that he has no problem sidling up to those elements.)

In spite of the fact that Carney is clearly vastly more qualified, Poilievre is still highly likely to be the next PM, simply due to timing. But I think he's probably already achieved his zenith of popularity, or even recently passed it. Once the Trudeau Liberals are officially in the rear-view, and Poilievre actually has to govern, his seemingly bulletproof stature is going to come crashing down to Earth.

I would bet quite a lot that the CPC are winning a 200+ seat majority regardless of anything that happens with the Liberals (it's too late and Carney is nowhere as popular with the general public as he is with the Liberal base) but I would also bet quite a lot that PP will become pretty unpopular pretty shortly after taking office. Basically the same story as Starmer in the UK.

Based on the above though, a new NDP leader could probably be better positioned to capitalize on this in opposition than Carney would be. In fact, if the NDP makes the right choices I could actually see them being a real contender in 2029. There's a lot of appetite for a genuine traditional NDP social democratic platform.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

Carney is an extremely accomplished, highly competent individual with a ridiculously robust CV, whose politics run gently to the left but who is also ultimately a pragmatist. Poilievre is a reactionary opportunist who has spent his entire adult life as an undinstinguished minor politician until his recent success capitalizing on disgruntlement with the Liberals. (I don't think he's a Trumpian figure, but it's unfortunate that he has no problem sidling up to those elements.)

In spite of the fact that Carney is clearly vastly more qualified, Poilievre is still highly likely to be the next PM, simply due to timing. But I think he's probably already achieved his zenith of popularity, or even recently passed it. Once the Trudeau Liberals are officially in the rear-view, and Poilievre actually has to govern, his seemingly bulletproof stature is going to come crashing down to Earth.

It seems many people, and the media in general, are going out of their way to ignore the fact that this Liberal leadership race, and not the upcoming federal election, will decide the next PM. I’m not saying that’s what you’re trying to do with your post… just pointing this out in general.

At a time where many Canadians are especially trying to point out differences between the Canadian and American political systems, the role of of the PM and how they are elected is a pretty big one. Yet, it seems many are glazing over the fact, that unlike the US, where the VP will take over for a POTUS that resigns, a Canadian PM that resigns will not be replaced by the deputy PM, but rather, whomever becomes the next party leader.

Personally, I’m quite intrigued that we all have this unique opportunity to directly vote for the next PM by taking part in the Liberal leadership race. Unlike a federal election where our individual votes for our riding’s MP often have very little impact on who becomes the next PM, our individual votes in this leadership race will directly impact who becomes Canada’s next PM. I’ve already convinced a few friends to sign up and take part of Liberal leadership race, because they weren’t aware that the winner would become the next PM.

___

As for PP not being a Trumpian figure, I think that’s highly debatable. PP is clearly nowhere close to Trump’s level of intelligence, manipulation, and machiavellianism, but he’s every bit as willing to ignore facts and refuse to engage in a genuine, factual dialogue with the Canadian people, just as Trump is unwilling to engage in a truthful dialogue with the American people or the world for that matter. Regardless, labelling PP as a Trumpian figure at this low point of US-Canada relations may prove to be quite an effective strategy for those opposed to PP style of politics and the CPC agenda.

So while it remains highly probable that PP will become the next, next PM after the results of the 2025 election, it’s also becoming more and more probable by the day that his Conservative party will not be able to win a majority.

We all knew that Trump winning the US Presidency could have an impact on the Canadian election, but I don’t think any of us could have predicted Trump’s second presidency would be this impactful on Canadian politics.

This election is shaping up to be the most interesting and significant Canadian election in many of our lifetimes. 🍿 🗳️ 🇨🇦

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

I would bet quite a lot that the CPC are winning a 200+ seat majority regardless of anything that happens with the Liberals (it's too late and Carney is nowhere as popular with the general public as he is with the Liberal base) but I would also bet quite a lot that PP will become pretty unpopular pretty shortly after taking office. Basically the same story as Starmer in the UK.

Based on the above though, a new NDP leader could probably be better positioned to capitalize on this in opposition than Carney would be. In fact, if the NDP makes the right choices I could actually see them being a real contender in 2029. There's a lot of appetite for a genuine traditional NDP social democratic platform.

I don't know if we are so ungovernable as the UK that PP gets that unpopular within months though PP does promise to fix a lot of things that are pretty structural.

Does Singh survive to fight a 2029 election? It's easy to dismiss your NDP claim of support for a social democratic platform but I think if PP fails and makes life dramatically worse which isn't unlikely I think you could be right.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

So I just heard from a friend of a friend who is connected to CPC campaign planners and found out something interesting. According to their internal polling, the CPC has actually gained more 2021 NDP voters than 2021 LPC voters and 2021 LPC voters switching to the CPC make up only about 3-4% of the total electorate. The implication was that Carney or Freeland winning back former LPC voters from the CPC won't actually move the needle much.

This would also explain why the CPC has put so much time into attacking Singh and painting him as a useless LPC puppet. It's clearly attracting former NDP supporters.

Sounds like BS to me. Who are these mythical NDP voters that prefer the Conservative Party to the Liberal Party? I’ve heard of people voting against their own self interest or who are ideologically inconsistent, but this would be some next level stuff in both regards. I’m highly skeptical there’s a significant number of NDP voters from 2019 and 2021 that will suddenly vote CPC in 2025.

The NDP currently has more political power than they’ve had in 50 years, and their supporters often point out that NDP forced the Liberals to move on things like pharmacare, dental care, among others. Singh has hardly been a puppet for the Liberals.