Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[gtsoc]

Originally Posted by CharlotteCountyLogan

This is not the first time Wayne has called out his constituents by name on social media for committing a action he didn't like. He is very thin skinned. I think a MP should be more professional but I'm no longer one of his constituents so my opinion isn't much of a concern I suppose.
Another thing I want to add which isn't important to the OPs post is that I once interviewed Wayne for a podcast episode I was hosting. He was disinterested in what I was saying and a bit rude to me during the recording. A word I use to describe Wayne is cocky.

While Wayne isn't your stereotypical politician, these two 'constituents' have caused great grief amongst all parties and many citizens - I certainly understand why he is getting fed up with them. They don't care about anyone else except themselves and will cause whatever trouble they see fit. I've had one of the two 'constituents' verbally attack me in King Square because I wouldn't give him the time of day so he chased me from one side of King Square right to the other.

[adamuptownsj]

Candidate update, since there's been some movement. I know it's the summer doldrums but it's pretty surprising that the PCs and Greens are both slacking. It's no secret the Liberals have been recruiting aggressively, but we're less than three months out and there's no Green or PC nominees in a bunch of French ridings and Metro Moncton. Not particularly relevant to the PCs, but a Green breakthrough seems totally off the table. My prediction of 3 Green seats and a small slip in the popular vote remains.

PCs +1 (35); 1 more scheduled
Liberals +4 (45); 2 more scheduled
Greens N/C (27); no public events
NDP N/C (16); no public events
Alliance +3 (9); no public events

We now have four 5-way races (+3): Saint John East, Saint Croix, and Fredericton North join Fredericton-York.

Somewhat relatedly, the last time a non-Narrative Research pollster polled the province was Leger in December 2022. This time in 2020 we had around a half dozen companies polling.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Candidate update, since there's been some movement. I know it's the summer doldrums but it's pretty surprising that the PCs and Greens are both slacking. It's no secret the Liberals have been recruiting aggressively, but we're less than three months out and there's no Green or PC nominees in a bunch of French ridings and Metro Moncton. Not particularly relevant to the PCs, but a Green breakthrough seems totally off the table. My prediction of 3 Green seats and a small slip in the popular vote remains.

PCs +1 (35); 1 more scheduled
Liberals +4 (45); 2 more scheduled
Greens N/C (27); no public events
NDP N/C (16); no public events
Alliance +3 (9); no public events

We now have four 5-way races (+3): Saint John East, Saint Croix, and Fredericton North join Fredericton-York.

Somewhat relatedly, the last time a non-Narrative Research pollster polled the province was Leger in December 2022. This time in 2020 we had around a half dozen companies polling.

Well, we have less and less media here so who's going to pay for polls and publish the results? I expect both the Libs and PC's are polling but the data is not being released.

[adamuptownsj]

Poitras actually does something useful for the first time in years, and interviews several Cardy-era NDP candidates. Decent summary of the brief rise and fall of the NDP (and Cardy himself).

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...ater-1.7286438

[adamuptownsj]

Paywalled article, but apparently a Libertarian Party has been registered, inspired by Ron Paul. They need to field (IIRC) 10 candidates this election to maintain that registration, and ambitiously intend to field a full slate.

https://tj.news/new-brunswick/new-po...ncial-election

[MonctonRad]

I wonder if some elderly Liberal voters will get confused at the ballot box and accidentally vote Libertarian rather than Liberal.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Poitras actually does something useful for the first time in years, and interviews several Cardy-era NDP candidates. Decent summary of the brief rise and fall of the NDP (and Cardy himself).

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...ater-1.7286438

Cardy is a freaking moron.

He’s clearly completely shameless if he was so easily able to jump ship from the NDP to the PC’s.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I wonder if some elderly Liberal voters will get confused at the ballot box and accidentally vote Libertarian rather than Liberal.

Not likely unless the Libertarian candidate was somehow at the top of the ballot, which actually matters quite a bit (position on the ballot)

[adamuptownsj]

The better question about Cardy is why the PCs thought he would be a team player.. or at least stable. IIRC it was borderline Marxist college students who drove him out of the NDP, to great success for all involved.

Apparently now he's the interim leader of some goofy 'sensible centrist' federal pseudoparty. You'd think that would be difficult to do as a sitting MLA, but he's also got time to be a "Sr. Fellow at Montreal Institute of Genocide Studies" per Twitter.

Apparently he's been getting arrested in Toronto: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canad...d=BingNewsSerp

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Not likely unless the Libertarian candidate was somehow at the top of the ballot, which actually matters quite a bit (position on the ballot)

No it doesn't, not for MLA. Ballot position matters if you've got like 30 races on the ballot at once like the US often does (who knows who their county commissioners or water board members are, let alone cares) but we will only have Legislative Assembly and the useless as teats on a bull Education and Health advisory boards. One race with ~3-6 candidates with party labels is not impacted by ballot position.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

No it doesn't, not for MLA. Ballot position matters if you've got like 30 races on the ballot at once like the US often does (who knows who their county commissioners or water board members are, let alone cares) but we will only have Legislative Assembly and the useless as teats on a bull Education and Health advisory boards. One race with ~3-6 candidates with party labels is not impacted by ballot position.

Gotta disagree with you there, ballot position matters no matter what. Not that I think too many people would be voting for Libertarian party candidates by mistake… but the number who do would likely by much higher if it’s one of the top 2-3 ballot choices.

The vote splitting is much more likely to benefit the PCs than the Liberals.

[TitleRequired]

Q. What is the order of names on the ballot?

A. The names are printed in party order, with the current government party first, then the official opposition party, then the other parties in alphabetical order, and then any independent candidates in alphabetical order by last names.

https://www1.gnb.ca/elections/en/faq...=18&TYPE=2#121

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

The better question about Cardy is why the PCs thought he would be a team player.. or at least stable. IIRC it was borderline Marxist college students who drove him out of the NDP, to great success for all involved.

Apparently[/U] now he's the interim leader of some goofy 'sensible centrist' federal pseudoparty. You'd think that would be difficult to do as a sitting MLA, but he's also got time to be a "Sr. Fellow at Montreal Institute of Genocide Studies" per Twitter.

Apparently he's been getting arrested in Toronto: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canad...d=BingNewsSerp

Not sure how much of a great success we can call Cardy’s political career as an MLA at this point.

Also, in terms of Marxist college students… he would have surely known before joining the NDP how far left leaning many in the party were. He used the provincial NDP as a stepping stone to forward his only personal political goals, and it makes him a pretty obviously shameless goof. His focus on being an online troll while being an MLA and prominent cabinet secretary was frankly pathetic.

He gets credit for telling us all about Higgs’s “data my ass” line and overall hostile attitude towards his cabinet, party, and people of NB for that matter, but he was still a pretty useless MLA and cabinet secretary that got bogged down with much bigger fights than should have been the focus of his roll as education minister.

Him and Higgs are both similarly shameless turd collectors, and the people of NB deserve far better than their ilk.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

Q. What is the order of names on the ballot?

A. The names are printed in party order, with the current government party first, then the official opposition party, then the other parties in alphabetical order, and then any independent candidates in alphabetical order by last names.

https://www1.gnb.ca/elections/en/faq...=18&TYPE=2#121

Yeah, so if they’re listed 3-4 ahead of the Green Party, PANB, NDP, it could have a greater impact on how many people might accidentally vote for them.

Imo, the last thing the NB electorate needs is one more party on the ballot. Just more reason to implement a ranked ballot with instant runoff voting.

Electoral reform based on proportional representation is hard to implement, but implementing a ranked a ballot would be pretty damn easy and beneficial for the Democratic process.

[adamuptownsj]

Liberals have candidates in 47 seats now; only missing the probably unwinnable Fredericton-Grand Lake, and the PC-leaning Carleton-Victoria. Little movement from the other parties.

No independents anywhere yet. No Libertarians either. AFAIK they haven't founded any riding associations yet, and there's no events on their website. They need 10 candidates and 10 RAs or they'll be deregistered after the election.

[sailor734]

Curious as to if there are any ridings where vote splitting between Greens and Liberals could give the PC's a win?

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Curious as to if there are any ridings where vote splitting between Greens and Liberals could give the PC's a win?

Definitely several, but a lot will hinge on Green candidate quality.

Holt's own seat of Fredericton South-Silverwood and the open Saint John Harbour are top of the list by default. Hard to say until we get a couple more polls and Green candidates.

It's not like a post-election 'add the red and green votes together and that's what the Liberals would have won without vote splitting' analysis is of much value. Sure, seats where PCs win by ~3 points and the Greens get 15% would absolutely be vote splitting causing Liberal losses. Less so with seats where the PC margin and the Green total are in the same ballpark.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Curious as to if there are any ridings where vote splitting between Greens and Liberals could give the PC's a win?

Brent Harris and David Hickey come to mind in Saint John Harbour. They're both pretty focussed on making homelessness a key issue of their campaign. Who is the PC Candidate, or have they even picked one yet? Arlene Dunn would have likely cruised to victory had she stayed on, but the Higgs government was clearly toxic for her and many other cabinet ministers.

I'd bet on Hickey winning the riding atm, but a strong PC candidate that can get stick to a coherent message and distance themselves from Higgs has a chance, especially because of the vote splitting.

[darkharbour]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Brent Harris and David Hickey come to mind in Saint John Harbour. They're both pretty focussed on making homelessness a key issue of their campaign. Who is the PC Candidate, or have they even picked one yet? Arlene Dunn would have likely cruised to victory had she stayed on, but the Higgs government was clearly toxic for her and many other cabinet ministers.

I'd bet on Hickey winning the riding atm, but a strong PC candidate that can get stick to a coherent message and distance themselves from Higgs has a chance, especially because of the vote splitting.

It's not Brent Harris, Mariah Darling is the Green candidate in SJ Harbour.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Definitely several, but a lot will hinge on Green candidate quality.

Holt's own seat of Fredericton South-Silverwood

It's not like a post-election 'add the red and green votes together and that's what the Liberals would have won without vote splitting' analysis is of much value. Sure, seats where PCs win by ~3 points and the Greens get 15% would absolutely be vote splitting causing Liberal losses. Less so with seats where the PC margin and the Green total are in the same ballpark.

Who the hell is the Green Party going to rely on beating Susan Holt in that riding? She'd be the first premier representing Fredericton as MLA in history, and she's been non stop touring the province for months now. I'd be shocked if Fredericton voters don't strongly vote in her favour... If the PC or Liberal leader was running in my Saint John riding and poised to become the first Premier representing Saint John in almost 100 years, I'd actually consider voting for either candidate, and I've never voted for a PC in my life.

I suspect many middle of the road PC voters in Fredericton South-Silverwood would considering voting for Holt for similar reasons, especially if they're informed voters who know that a vote for the PCs could actually help elect a Green candidate in that riding... NB has a long history of electing Premiers from rural areas, Higgs included. Susan Holt is very much a city person, and I think she appeals to urban voters a lot more than Higgs does, especially after almost six years of his almost never ending nonsense.

I'd be willing to bet she wins that riding, and wins the election. She's going to get a boost as a female leader thanks to Kamala Harris' surging poll numbers. I know it's a bit of a stretch, but I really do think it's going to have a bit of an impact, with how many billions are going to be devoted to campaigning for the first female POTUS in history. People like voting for history, and people in Fredericton South-Silverwood have two historic firsts to vote for: The First female premier, and first premier representing Fredericton.