Canadian Federal Election

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

That's the part I find frustrating about the housing and homeless discussions. It seems to conveniently forget that this is a global issue that affects numerous countries to varying degrees. Yes, it would be impossible for population growth not to have an impact. But the fact that the issue is intensifying in many other places at the same time strongly suggests that there's more to it than that. It is NOT just down to immigration.

For starters. Canada's population has been growing through immigration for decades, and while the rate has increased, it's inaccurate to suggest that we're letting in 1+ million per year. In 2020, the Trudeau government increased targets to 401,000 new permanent residents in 2021, 411,000 in 2022 and 421,000 in 2023. Which is a lot, but it's not only far less than 1+ million per year, but must also be taken within the context that without immigration the national population would actually be declining due to our below replacement birth rates. So virtually all of Canada's population growth comes from immigration topping off our below replacement birth rates and part of the immigration numbers just replaces loses rather than causes growth.

Which is why the projected growth under the "high growth" scenario for 2021-2026 is about 1.4% per year. That's definitely an increase compared to the roughly 1% we're averaged per year for many decades, but is hardly "1+ million Fresh New Suckers per year." That may as well be lifted directly from a CPC campaign ad or something.

To be clear, I'm not saying it wasn't a mistake to increase immigration at the time. But I am rejecting the overly simplistic notion that this is the only relevant factor in the housing crisis.

I'm afraid Lio is wrong..........but you're wrong-er........

Statistic Canada as your source, the population growth rate in 2023 was 3.2%

Or more than 1.27M people.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/population-growth-canada-2023-1.7157233

Here's the problem. You looked at 'immigration'. But population growth, birth/deaths aside, is also a function of people here 'temporarily' as foreign workers or foreign students.

They all need housing.

That TFW, working on a farm, or more likely at your local Tim's...... needs a place to stay, as does the community college..........err diploma mill student.

The government has moved to curtail student numbers......but not really TFWs.

And its stated goal is get to get 'temporary' residents of Canada down to 5% by 2027 from ~7%; but, the historic norm is ~3%.

There is also little evidence they will hit their target, and solid evidence they will miss it.

To be clear, there's no scapegoating here. I don't fault anyone for coming to Canada who we invited, or allowed to be invited, by a school or an employer.

I simply fault the government for terrible policy, that made no sense, in an already red hot housing market; and an employment market with relatively stagnant wages.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Will the NDP actually be held to single digits? What a disaster.

NDP loses official party status in nearly all predictions at this point. Singh's got his pension tho

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Wigs

The other day he told us DOGE is good. Canada needs DOGE

PP and the Conservatives are coming for your CPP and OAS just like DOGE is doing with Americans’ Social Security. His ideology aligns, his record of voting against anything to do with govt pensions stands for all to see.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

I'm afraid Lio is wrong..........but you're wrong-er........

Statistic Canada as your source, the population growth rate in 2023 was 3.2%

Or more than 1.27M people.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/population-growth-canada-2023-1.7157233

Here's the problem. You looked at 'immigration'. But population growth, birth/deaths aside, is also a function of people here 'temporarily' as foreign workers or foreign students.

They all need housing.

That TFW, working on a farm, or more likely at your local Tim's...... needs a place to stay, as does the community college..........err diploma mill student.

The government has moved to curtail student numbers......but not really TFWs.

And its stated goal is get to get 'temporary' residents of Canada down to 5% by 2027 from ~7%; but, the historic norm is ~3%.

There is also little evidence they will hit their target, and solid evidence they will miss it.

To be clear, there's no scapegoating here. I don't fault anyone for coming to Canada who we invited, or allowed to be invited, by a school or an employer.

I simply fault the government for terrible policy, that made no sense, in an already red hot housing market; and an employment market with relatively stagnant wages.

How exactly am I "wrong"? Also, for the record, I recall other reliable SSPers (theman23, Truenorth00, etc.) regularly relaying the annualized >1M figure during our Peak FNS Intake period. At this point I knew very well that it was an established fact (that we DID grow by an eye-popping annualized 7 figures amount at some point not long ago) so I just confidently threw it out there in the thread earlier today but thanks for backing me up with StatCan figures.

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Immigration did not cause house prices to rise. In fact. When immigration was highest, house prices were falling.

Prices, in everything, rose due to a surplus of dollars.

It's a Keynesian cycle. The response to the current crisis creates the next crisis, while slowly melting away the currency over time.

Please see my post above in respect of the population numbers.

On pricing.....I will disagree w/you insofar as you seem to be ignoring the impact of rising interest rates.

The price decrease you show is almost an inverse of the tracking of interest rates through early 2024.

Subsequently, we've seen some declines, but rates are certainly not at their lowest levels again yet.

Prime went from sub 2.5% to over 7%. That's what killed the housing market and lowered prices.

https://wowa.ca/canada-mortgage-rates-history

Prime is still only down to ~5%, or double what it was a few years ago.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

To be clear, there's no scapegoating here. I don't fault anyone for coming to Canada who we invited, or allowed to be invited, by a school or an employer.

Same here, BTW. I'm on record multiple times pointing out these people (FNSs) are actually somewhat exploited victims of JT's pet Scheme of Great Landlord Enrichment. Definitely not blaming them. It's us (well, our elected officials) who choose to still let them in knowing there's already competition for McJobs and housing, and that our schools and hospitals are already full...

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

Please see my post above in respect of the population numbers.

On pricing.....I will disagree w/you insofar as you seem to be ignoring the impact of rising interest rates.

The price decrease you show is almost an inverse of the tracking of interest rates through early 2024.

Subsequently, we've seen some declines, but rates are certainly not at their lowest levels again yet.

Prime went from sub 2.5% to over 7%. That's what killed the housing market and lowered prices.

https://wowa.ca/canada-mortgage-rates-history

Prime is still only down to ~5%, or double what it was a few years ago.

Exactly! As I keep trying to explain, for the correct metric of affordability, you're much better off looking at the typical mortgage payment (or rent) than nominal house prices while ignoring interest rates.

2008 was eye-opening: as interest rates fell to levels that previously were not even imaginable, real estate literally doubled overnight (at least here it did, but it was really low in the first place) in nominal prices while everything else (rents, property taxes -- mill rates were roughly halved by municipalities here as a result -- mortgage payments, all expenses, etc.) stayed pretty much the exact same, so it did not change anything except reward anyone who already owned property at the time.

Affordability did not worsen, despite real estate doubling in price. In fact as I explained earlier, affordability actually INCREASED after the GFC in Canada. In my area(s) at least. I lost several long-term tenants who never expected to be able to buy owner-occupied real estate, but with ~2% interest rates, they actually could now.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Immigration did not cause house prices to rise. In fact. When immigration was highest, house prices were falling.

Originally Posted by trueviking

again. My response was to his post claiming that housing prices doubled under Trudeau and increased less under Harper....just providing facts. nothing to do with income, interest rates or tent cities....you are arguing something different.

I've been trying for YEARS to get the community here to accept to define "house prices" and "cost of housing" as the (monthly or yearly) costs of having a roof over one's head, whether it's as a renter (i.e. rents) or as a typical non-retired buyer/homeowner (i.e. interest rates).

THAT is the correct metric for the housing crisis.

And it's also THE metric that gets influenced by supply vs demand.

[BlackDog204]

Why Did the Republicans Want to Fundraise for Pierre Poilievre?

A curious fundraising website reveals an abandoned GOP-Conservative collaboration




"If WinRed, the official fundraising platform of the Republican Party, is responsible for any particular kind of innovation in political fundraising, it is likely its ability to sign up a huge volume of conservative Americans, particularly elderly ones, into signing up for recurring donations.

WinRed boasts processing billions of dollars every year — and in so doing, it has racked up a deluge of complaints with with the Federal Elections Commission over its pushy efforts to separate people from their money.

Despite not being anything particularly special, WinRed scored an audience in Ottawa to market its wares to the Conservative Party of Canada.

In 2022, WinRed began registering about a dozen domain names like “defeattrudeau.ca,” “no-carbon-tax.ca,” “helppierre.ca,” and “end-mandates.ca.” And it mocked up fundraising pages for the party’s newly-installed leader, Pierre Poilievre: Like the one pictured above.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

On pricing.....I will disagree w/you insofar as you seem to be ignoring the impact of rising interest rates on house prices.

I'm not ignoring rates. I'm saying they are literally the entire cause of inflation and skyrocketing prices. Not just of houses, of everything. Food. Everything. See post.

ZIRP loosens the money supply, flooding the economy with cash. Deficit government spending does the same, and it's often in conjunction with ZIRP. To "stimulate the economy". The age-old Keynesian trope.

To lower prices, just keep rates above 4%. Not a single house needs to be built.

A 4%+ interest rate is normal. It will lower all prices; housing, food, everything. Our 15 years of ZIRP is not normal. It's stimulative and inflationary. While you're at it, change BoC's target inflation rate from 2% to 0%. Inflation is bad. It's a robbery of purchasing power through higher prices.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

I'm afraid Lio is wrong..........but you're wrong-er........

Statistic Canada as your source, the population growth rate in 2023 was 3.2%

Or more than 1.27M people.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/population-growth-canada-2023-1.7157233

Here's the problem. You looked at 'immigration'. But population growth, birth/deaths aside, is also a function of people here 'temporarily' as foreign workers or foreign students.

They all need housing.

That TFW, working on a farm, or more likely at your local Tim's...... needs a place to stay, as does the community college..........err diploma mill student.

The government has moved to curtail student numbers......but not really TFWs.

And its stated goal is get to get 'temporary' residents of Canada down to 5% by 2027 from ~7%; but, the historic norm is ~3%.

There is also little evidence they will hit their target, and solid evidence they will miss it.

To be clear, there's no scapegoating here. I don't fault anyone for coming to Canada who we invited, or allowed to be invited, by a school or an employer.

I simply fault the government for terrible policy, that made no sense, in an already red hot housing market; and an employment market with relatively stagnant wages.

I cited the numbers I mentioned which were the projected numbers for growth in the 2021-2026 period. There hasn't been a census release of any official growth numbers for that period so everything we have are estimates. The article you linked doesn't link to the actual statscan source nor does it agree with other sources I've seen so it's possible it could be an error with reporters misinterpreting the actual data. It's also possible the difference is in how temporary foreign workers are counted. While it's true that they need accommodations, many temporary foreign workers tend to be in agriculture or other fields outside of high priced urban areas which are the focal points of the housing crisis. Their temporary nature also affects the type of accommodations they would need. And perhaps most importantly, new temporary residents tend to fully or partly replace other temporary residents who, being temporary, have left. So the numbers would need a bit more scrutiny to draw the conclusions the article is trying to draw.

Particularly this line: "Across Canada, the population rose by 1,271,872 between Jan. 1, 2023 and Jan. 1, 2024. Statistics Canada says 97.6 per cent of that population growth was the result of immigration, with 471,771 immigrants settling in the country last year and the number of temporary residents — most of whom are foreign workers — rising by 804,901." That doesn't make sense because the total growth they cite is almost exactly the same as the combined immigrant and temporary worker numbers. Which means it doesn't consider how many previous foreign workers have left.

Regardless, a single year several years ago wouldn't justify presenting a single outlier as being the growth rate "per year" which implies repetition over time.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Will the NDP actually be held to single digits? What a disaster.

I think so. My guess would be around 8 seats

Originally Posted by casper

If we use DOGE as the inspiration it would be getting Kevin O'Leary (or someone like that) to have unrestricted access to all federal systems and to randomly fire people.

What a complete disaster and breach of privacy laws.

The best solution is to ensure PP never becomes PM.

Monday can't come soon enough.

That would be an effing catastrophe

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

After the dust settles, the Liberals will probably win with 190 seats. Conservatives will be at 120, while the Bloc will have 23, NDP with 9, and Green with 1. Even the Ford PC Ontario party internal polling show a 14 points Liberal lead.

I still think it's ambitiously optimistic. But would be fine to be proven wrong.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by lio45

Hard to believe that tent cities are worse in Australia and Germany than in Canada, though. Which is apparently what that data would say...

It's really hard to have good data about this, BTW. (And I know you know this...) Especially when comparing different countries. Apples to apples.

You always claim to be logical and impartial until the data contradicts your viewpoints and then the metrics are magically flawed.

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

I cited the numbers I mentioned which were the projected numbers for growth in the 2021-2026 period....

From Statistics Canada:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250319/dq250319a-eng.htm

I will take one paragraph from the above. Note that it references 2022, and 2023 as well as 2024.

With the release of the fourth quarter population estimates, a full portrait of the annual growth in 2024 is possible. Canada's population increased by 744,324 people in 2024, a growth rate of 1.8%. While this growth rate was lower than those in 2022 (+2.5%) and 2023 (+3.1%), it was higher than that in any year from 1972 to 2021. This may reflect a transition back to the population growth patterns seen before the start of the pandemic.

Note also this report from CIBC which thinks Stats. Can is underestimating growth:

https://thoughtleadership.cibc.com/artic...jections-are-we-repeating-past-mistakes/

[whatnext]

As a born and raised British Columbian I didn't realize that the ridings Carney and Poilievre are contesting actually adjoin each other until I read it in the Guardian.

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Looks like Poilievre may get Fanjoyed out of his riding in Carleton/

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

To lower prices, just keep rates above 4%. Not a single house needs to be built.

LOL wut?

Do you think there are a bunch of empty homes out there people just can't afford? That's been proven false again and again.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Wigs

I think so. My guess would be around 8 seats


That would be an effing catastrophe


I still think it's ambitiously optimistic. But would be fine to be proven wrong.

How is this ambitiously optimistic when Polling Canada, CBC, and 338Canada.ca all show nearly identical numbers.

How about this:

LIB 202
CPC 115
BQ 18
NDP 8
GREEN 0


This result would really see the knives come out, for Poilievre and Byrne.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Do you think there are a bunch of empty homes out there people just can't afford? That's been proven false again and again.

Yes. Housing inventories are literally at 10 year record highs man.

Are you going to tell me the data is fake next?

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by whatnext

As a born and raised British Columbian I didn't realize that the ridings Carney and Poilievre are contesting actually adjoin each other until I read it in the Guardian.

I would have preferred Carney had ran in Edmonton, just to stick it to Danielle Smith. Having Carney run in his home town would have boosted the Liberal fortune in that area by 3-4 seats.

As it is right now, 7 seats are virtual toss-ups, with the NDP and Liberals leading by over 5 points in two of the nine ridings.

[Hecate]

How come no one is talking about the privy council report except the conservatives?

Upward mobility is dying in this country. Along with peoples hopes and dreams. They are predicting Canadians will be resorting to foraging for food and hunting to keep themselves fed by 2040.

This is the privy council! And you guys want the same people driving the bus… FFS

The myopia is astounding.