Canadian Federal Election

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by acottawa

True, but polls a few months before an election are usually pretty indicative of the final result. Also, there is no evidence of the ongoing PP collapse the Liberals are talking about.

"Collapse" is absolutely too strong a word, but the trend is also clear to see--Trudeau's departure, and the emergence of two pretty decent Liberal leadership contenders, and the Liberal response to Trump, is eroding his Poilievre's lead. He's pretty desperately trying to paint Carney and Freeland as Trudeau-the-sequel, but most people arne't buying it, besides diehards who are going to vote Conservative regardless. The carbon-tax/cost-of-living messaging that Poilievre has been hanging his fortunes on for so long is ceding ground to the Trump threat. Canada's political universe is shifting quickly and Poilievre, who was so confident and successful at mastering the messaging and the public mood a few months ago, is faltering. He's definitely got the momentum behind him, but he also knows that it's beginning to fade. And the longer the Liberals are up there navigating the Trump threat with reasonable aplomb, the more they look like leaders. Poilievre feels a bit reduced by contrast, still shouting about the carbon tax from the sidelines.

Don't get me wrong, if I were betting, I'd still be betting on a Conservative victory. But it's beginning to look like we might be in for a real race rather than an acclamation by way of anti-Trudeau protest voting.
Ipsos just this afternoon released aother poll, continuing the fading-CPC trend. Still showing a commanding lead, but the slide is continuing.

[jamincan]

Polling aside - I don't think you can draw anything too meaningful from it at this time and I'm broadly skeptical of polling these days anyway - the landscape is far more favourable for the Liberals than it has been for a very long time which makes an election far less attractive for the Conservatives when they were looking at just about a sure thing just one month ago.

- the Liberals will feel like a safe party in a time of global instability. While this might bleed some support from the Conservatives, it is more likely to bleed support from the NDP.
- Ontario is going into an election that the Conservatives are favoured to win. Historically Ontario tends to sway one way provincially and the other federally and so this may depress Conservative support there
- criticism of the Liberals has largely be couched as criticism of Trudeau in particular. With a leadership change, they will likely see an increase in support. The effect of this is hard to gauge, but I think it could be quite large. It is likely enough to pull back Liberal voters who were fed up with Trudeau, but I think it will also have an effect on swing voters who might have been critical of Trudeau, seeing him as the granola, DEI prime minister, something that wouldn't really stick to Carney.
- the Conservatives haven't yet established a strategy to attack Carney effectively. They've had ten years or so to refine attacks on Trudeau specifically and those attacks wouldn't work on a Carney-led Liberal Party.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I don’t understand the hand wringing from the Liberals on this thread. Every poll in recent weeks including the Ekos robo poll has the Tories in the low 40s and the Liberals in the low 20s. That is a crushing liberal defeat. Is there some internal polling somebody has access to?

Mainstreet is only polling Ontario and shows a tie. Nanos has a new poll with a 13 points shift though still healthy double digit lead.

Until there is a new leader polls don't matter much. Trump still won but Kamala did turn a 10-13 point deficit into a 2 point deficit so leaders still matter even when there is a turf the bumbs out sentiment.

I think when Carney is selected given tariffs and Trump we could end up with a very close race. Carney seems very uncomfortable in French and still fixated on carbon tax and inclusivity that combined with the huge Liberal cabinet support he has will make claiming he's not the inheritor of Trudeau tough. Right now the carbon tax election is done but linking him to the Trudeau economic disaster will be easier the more he has the same policies.

[Marty_Mcfly]

^ The thing about Nanos is that the Liberal growth in support that they've seen over the past few weeks has entirely been in Quebec. You'd want to see some growth in Ontario for Liberals to begin having some confidence that Nanos is also trending in their favour. But last week they showed the gap in Ontario increasing.

Ipsos released today showing a tightening as well, but didn't include regional crosstabs for vote intention. The only thing they mentioned was that the CPC were ahead in all regions except Quebec, but it's hard to infer much about what's going on without seeing what's happening in Ontario.

[Dengler Avenue]

At this point, it may be best to revisit the polls a week or two after the new LPC leader is announced.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

At this point, it may be best to revisit the polls a week or two after the new LPC leader is announced.

We might already be in an election by then. There are arguments for both the Liberals and Conservatives for going now or waiting. Some Liberals thinking going as soon as possible in the middle of the Trump chaos is the best chance. What is clear is the NDP are dead if the election is soon though hard to see a recovery. They might think about voting to support and Singh stepping down. Too bad Singh wasn't really only concerned about his pension or he'd do that. Rachel Notley in a fall election could be pretty formidable. Especially if Carney tries to move to the centre but as is probably fails to convince centrist voters but alienates the 25% that is solidly leftist.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Apologies for the low quality graphic

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Apologies for the low quality graphic

Apple munching intensifies

[casper]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I don’t understand the hand wringing from the Liberals on this thread. Every poll in recent weeks including the Ekos robo poll has the Tories in the low 40s and the Liberals in the low 20s. That is a crushing liberal defeat. Is there some internal polling somebody has access to?

I am not predicting a Liberal win. Not certain anyone else is. I think it is to early to say. Given all the moving and shifting parts, I don't think any of us know.

What I think is clear is the election is in play again. Two months ago it was going to be a "carbon tax" election and a referendum on JT as PM. That is out the window now.

The Liberals now have a chance again. But they need to select Carney as leader. Trump needs to continue to do crazy Trump things. PP needs to continue to sound like the Canadian no-name version of Trump.

[Loco101]

The election campaign will be where we see how voters actually feel about each party.
The LPC hasn't had its leadership convention yet. At the moment there is no doubt that the CPC is ahead but we really have no idea if it's a lot or not. We really don't know how many people will reconsider voting Liberal no matter who the new leader is.

One thing we do know is PP and his style of politics. I've noticed some third-party and LPC ads questioning his ability to lead government. I'm wondering if the ads are having any effect? And then the bigger thing is the Trump factor. PP has an angry/unhappy persona like Trump. It may have worked last year but in 2025 it may not.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by acottawa

True, but polls a few months before an election are usually pretty indicative of the final result. Also, there is no evidence of the ongoing PP collapse the Liberals are talking about.

Except the polls?

Ask the last three Conservative leaders how accurate polls a few months before an election were. Campaigns change everything.

I predict Carney calls an election almost immediately after becoming leader.

[whatnext]

It’s quite amusing to see the resident Libs proclaiming a CPC collapse. I said it before, Carney might get a John Turner(aka dead cat) bounce but once the campaign is underway things will change. He’s never been in election campaign before let alone been at the top of the ticket. The anti-incumbency wave sweeping the western world will come roaring back once voters are reminded daily of Trudeau era policies..

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by whatnext

It’s quite amusing to see the resident Libs proclaiming a CPC collapse. I said it before, Carney might get a John Turner(aka dead cat) bounce but once the campaign is underway things will change. He’s never been in election campaign before let alone been at the top of the ticket. The anti-incumbency wave sweeping the western world will come roaring back once voters are reminded daily of Trudeau era policies..

I'm not predicting a CPC collapse will actually happen. But it's certainly a possibility with PP leading the party.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by trueviking

Except the polls?

Ask the last three Conservative leaders how accurate polls a few months before an election were. Campaigns change everything.

I predict Carney calls an election almost immediately after becoming leader.

The last 3 election polls had fairly accurate conservative numbers a few months before the vote. For example Ipsos had the Tories at 32 in August 21 and they ended up with 33. If you ignore the wacky robo polls like Ekos then polling a few months before an election is pretty accurate. What polls don’t account for is wacky FPP results, but the polls themselves are pretty accurate.

[jamincan]

Originally Posted by acottawa

The last 3 election polls had fairly accurate conservative numbers a few months before the vote. For example Ipsos had the Tories at 32 in August 21 and they ended up with 33. If you ignore the wacky robo polls like Ekos then polling a few months before an election is pretty accurate. What polls don’t account for is wacky FPP results, but the polls themselves are pretty accurate.

The election campaigns were already underway by Aug 21. As a counterpoint, Ipsos was polling the Liberals 10 pts ahead of the conservatives and poised for a majority in April of that year, for example.

[Marshsparrow]

Conservatives have a tendency to shoot themselves in the foot.

Some seem to be linking Musk/Trump moves, not liking it and thinking Conservatives will do the same thing in Canada. The Canada is Broken line seems to have gone away as well.

Seeing the Conservatives move away from the Carbon Tax to something else so quickly is also funny - they are somewhat lost if they don't have a slogan. This Hour Has 22 Minutes had a good skit that I think is probably pretty close to reality...

[q12]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

This Hour Has 22 Minutes had a good skit that I think is probably pretty close to reality...

• Video Link

[kwoldtimer]

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by acottawa

True, but polls a few months before an election are usually pretty indicative of the final result. Also, there is no evidence of the ongoing PP collapse the Liberals are talking about.

There is no "collapse" per say. But there HAS been major movement in federal polling over the last 3 weeks.

Rewind back to a month ago, all polling agreed the CPC was leading by 25-28 points across Canada. Now we have a tightening race. Every single pollster has shown the lead dropping. Nanos and Ipsos both have the CPC lead down to 12-13 points. Angus Reid is showing similar things. Leger saw their lead drop from from 27 points to 16 points.

Mainstreet and Ekos both showing the CPC lead even smaller, only 3-7 points. Both have the LPC leading Ontario.

Then we have some new Leger data that just came out yesterday showing the LPC is up in Quebec , and under Mark Carney would be leading the province by 14 points. A new Nanos poll shows when asked "Who Is Best To Deal With Trump Administration" , Mark Carney smokes Poilievre 40-26% among respondents.

Taken together it's quite clear the Trump tariffs are causing a rise in LPC fortunes, and a decline in the Conservatives fortunes. Where this goes from here? Who knows. So much could happen in the political world between now and then.

[MonctonRad]

The best hope for the Liberals is for Carney to win the leadership campaign, and to call an early election during the honeymoon phase (before he does anything stupid), and, at the same time, pray that Trump starts to mass his troops along the border in preparation for an invasion.

PP would be pulverized.