Canadian Federal Election

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by kiwi4353

Just wondering will these new Trump tariffs lead to a recession?

More than likely unless the announced tariffs were really only for show and there is hidden fine print that exempts almost everything.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

I am just completely fucking dumbfounded that in the midst of this trade war, Danielle Smith and the UCP exploit the opportunity, to try to shakedown Ottawa by making a list of demands, that if not met within 6 months, she will attempt to hold a referendum on Alberta succeeding from Canada.

She needs to look at what happened economically in Quebec when referendums were held and also when separation was the main issue. Quebec has had the highest rate of economic growth over the last decade and hasn't threatened a referendum or separation during that time.

[Loco101]

Lastest Nanos Poll:

https://nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/2025-2783-ELXN-FED-2025-04-01-Field-Ended.pdf


LPC: 45.1%

CPC: 37.2%

NDP: 9.2%

BQ: 5.3%

GPC: 1.6%

PPC: 1.1%

Liberals have huge leads in Atlantic Region, Quebec, Ontario, a small lead in BC and the CPC has a huge lead in the prairie provinces.

-----------------


Preferred Prime Minister:

Carney: 48.7%

Poilievre: 33.9%

Unsure: 5.4%

Singh: 5.3%

Blanchet: 2.6%

Bernier: 1.6%

May: 1.1%


Carney and Poilievre are tied among men but for women Carney double the support of PP.

[BlackDog204]

"Should all the federal leaders receive security clearance and read the NSICOP report, or not?"

All:

Yes: 69%
No: 14%

Yes Among (X) Voters:

LPC: 89%
NDP: 81%
BQ: 75%
CPC: 44%

Angus Reid / March 31, 2025 / n=2131 / Online

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Correct me if I am mistaken, but did Trump not say that he was going to impose 25% tariffs on all foreign made automobiles. Considering a huge percentage of American vehicles are manufactured in Canada and Mexico, would that not devastate the Canadian auto sector?

That's what I thought but then later I heard a GOP Senator saying that nothing changes for Canadian and Mexican made autos if they are USMCA compliant. If that is so, it should mean most of the Ontario made cars and trucks are tariff free as most of the components are from North America. I'm unsure if Honda and Toyota import engines, transmissions or other components from outside North America or not though. It could also be that Senator is wrong, I don't know.

[Marshsparrow]

Originally Posted by Loco101

She needs to look at what happened economically in Quebec when referendums were held and also when separation was the main issue. Quebec has had the highest rate of economic growth over the last decade and hasn't threatened a referendum or separation during that time.

Danielle S posting that yesterday was a WIN for Canada and pretty much taking credit for the work she did. Many of the maple MAGA crowd saying the Liberals are fabricating and extending the crisis. They seem to overlook that what remains in place is going to result in significant disruption and job losses:

25% tariffs on goods not covered by CUSMA
25% tariffs on autos
25% tariffs on stell and aluminum
10% on energy and potash

If autos were excluded and Ford posted about it being a WIN, she'd be all over it...

My only hope is that Albertans see her for the boot licker and traitor to Canada she is and elect Liberals.

[kwoldtimer]

Conservative turfed another candidate, this time for an ill-considered emoji, apparently. That makes CPC - 3, Lib - 1. The race is on and I'm sticking with my bet of 10 in total by the end of the campaign.

[Marshsparrow]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Conservative turfed another candidate, this time for an ill-considered emoji, apparently. That makes CPC - 3, Lib - 1. The race is on and I'm sticking with my bet of 10 in total by the end of the campaign.

I think CPC is up to 4.

Last one wanted to deport ppl to India and let Modi take care of them.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/toronto/article/c...days-over-alleged-social-media-activity/

[Taeolas]

Yeah CPC have tossed 4 now to the LPC 1.

Lockin date for candidates is this weekend, so I hope they're all doing a thorough closet check before then to make sure everything's clean.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Conservative turfed another candidate, this time for an ill-considered emoji, apparently. That makes CPC - 3, Lib - 1. The race is on and I'm sticking with my bet of 10 in total by the end of the campaign.

An ill considered emoji?!? Lmao, WTF!

🤯

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

I think CPC is up to 4.

Last one wanted to deport ppl to India and let Modi take care of them.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/toronto/article/c...days-over-alleged-social-media-activity/

They have themselves to blame with their cancel culture attack on the Chinese bounty joke.

[missing_middle]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

They have themselves to blame with their cancel culture attack on the Chinese bounty joke.

What would be the line for you?

Even if he had said "I wish there was a bounty for him" I could see letting it slide because it's a hypothetical. But he was basically inciting people on a non-hypothetical.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Lastest Nanos Poll:

https://nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/2025-2783-ELXN-FED-2025-04-01-Field-Ended.pdf


LPC: 45.1%

CPC: 37.2%

NDP: 9.2%

BQ: 5.3%

GPC: 1.6%

PPC: 1.1%

Liberals have huge leads in Atlantic Region, Quebec, Ontario, a small lead in BC and the CPC has a huge lead in the prairie provinces.

-----------------


Preferred Prime Minister:

Carney: 48.7%

Poilievre: 33.9%

Unsure: 5.4%

Singh: 5.3%

Blanchet: 2.6%

Bernier: 1.6%

May: 1.1%


Carney and Poilievre are tied among men but for women Carney double the support of PP.

This tells it all. In all past elections both federally and provincially, the preferred PM/Premier always wins the election.

[travis3000]

New Liaison Poll

LPC= 45
CPC= 37
NDP= 6

Liaison was the most accurate pollster for the Ontario provincial election. Their results were bang on. This poll has the LPC leading BC and ON by 11 points, Quebec by 18 points, and Atlantic by 20+ points.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by missing_middle

What would be the line for you?

Even if he had said "I wish there was a bounty for him" I could see letting it slide because it's a hypothetical. But he was basically inciting people on a non-hypothetical.

It's probably over the line as with the Conservative MPs they reveal attitudes that are problematic. My point is the Conservatives claim to be all about free speech yet were all about it when they saw an advantage.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

My only hope is that Albertans see her for the boot licker and traitor to Canada she is and elect Liberals.

Rural Albertans will not vote Smith out, if the UCP firebombed their homes. It's up to Calgary and the smaller cities to turn NDP orange, if anything is to change. Edmonton is the only city in Alberta, that did not vote for Smith in any of their ridings. There is always a chance that the ongoing RCMP investigation results in charges against her and other UCP members, for all the corruption that they are committing, but the wheels of justice turn pretty slow.

The UCP is the closest thing Canada has to Trump, and they will literally torch the province, if it meant holding on to power for a couple of years.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by travis3000

New Liaison Poll

LPC= 45
CPC= 37
NDP= 6

Liaison was the most accurate pollster for the Ontario provincial election. Their results were bang on. This poll has the LPC leading BC and ON by 11 points, Quebec by 18 points, and Atlantic by 20+ points.

If this lead holds, the Liberals will win big. 11 points in Ontario will translate into 80 seats, never mind Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. The fact that the CPC vote is disproportionately concentrated in the prairie province will hurt them.

They are leading BC by 11 points? Are you sure about that?

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

They have themselves to blame with their cancel culture attack on the Chinese bounty joke.

Both parties obviously have problems with Foreign interference. Speaking of which:


"How much of a problem, if at all, do you believe foreign interferences is in this current election?"

Major problem: 53%
Minor problem: 30%
Not A Problem: 5%

Unsure: 12%

Angus Reid / March 31, 2025 / n=2131 / Online

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

If this lead holds, the Liberals will win big. 11 points in Ontario will translate into 80 seats, never mind Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. The fact that the CPC vote is disproportionately concentrated in the prairie province will hurt them.

They are leading BC by 11 points? Are you sure about that?

Yes I sure am

https://press.liaisonstrategies.ca/national-tracker-liberals-45-conservatives-37/

I wouldn't lean into these daily tracking poll changes too much. Small sample sizes. Numbers bounce around quite a bit each day. Best to focus on trends.

[AuxTown]

Originally Posted by missing_middle

What would be the line for you?

Even if he had said "I wish there was a bounty for him" I could see letting it slide because it's a hypothetical. But he was basically inciting people on a non-hypothetical.

It was in bad taste for sure and I wouldn't be all that bothered by it if multiple Canadians weren't just executed in China for ridiculous charges. Prior to that I would see the risk to him as theoretical, now it seems much more real and suggesting someone turn him in is just gross. Glad he stepped down.