Canadian Federal Election

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Hecate

Seriously? Just the other day you were going on about the conservatives selling us out to the states, yet the party says the opposite.

Please feel free to quote my post exactly and explain how it's a smear on Poilievre.

Saying that they are still being too generous on defence contracts is only a smear to a partisan boob who thinks any criticism is a smear.

[Marshsparrow]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

Why the Maple Maga reference… weren’t you and others up in arms ridiculing PP and Cons regarding Carbon Tax Carney label?… really scratching my head too why others haven’t called this out, perhaps because they turn a blind eye.

Carney wasn't in office when the carbon tax was enacted - be he sure did a job to remove it - so the reference is a stretch and is one of Pierre's 20 three word slogans.

There are many many many Conservatives current MPs and ones running for office who are pictured with Trump hats, social media endorsements of his victory and copy his talking points - they are deep maple maga.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by lio45

You’re saying we can count on Mark Carney to fight for Bill 96 against Trump?

Does the future of the French fact in Quebec hinge on Bill 96?

I think not. This legislation is flawed. You don't preserve a linguistic majority by hitting the minority over the head with a sledgehammer. Le Quebecois can do better.

And, yes, Carney is better than Drumpf. I see der Fuhrer feels that bilingual packaging in Canada is a major trade irritant and should not be allowed. Think about that.

Bilingual packaging and supply management are off the table as far as Carney is concerned. Quebecers in general and Quebec dairy, poultry and egg prodicers should be grateful.

Quebec's voice is heard in Canada. It would not be heard in a magna-USA............

[Marshsparrow]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

NEW: CTV cancelled a fact-checking segment in response to political pressure from Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives

Audio recording shows ‘election misinformation’ segment with journalist Rachel Gilmore cancelled after backlash from conservatives


source: https://pressprogress.ca/ctv-cancelled-a...re-from-pierre-poilievres-conservatives/

some FREEDOM these Conservatives espouse - talk about cancel culture at its finest... Conservatives are terrified of the actual facts - their narrative is disinformation, misinformation and conspiracy...

[Marshsparrow]

Pierre sure was petty in Petty Harbour yesterday.

CPC handlers wouldn't let the local maga candidate (yes he is pictured in Trump and maga gear in previous social media posts) speak with reporters. CPC reps getting all touchy with the local reporters who tried to get access to the event - pushing - nice look. Police called on a dozen protestors.

He sounded again like Trump:
"radical environmental extremist ideology of the Liberal Party."

Talk bout restricting access to the leader.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by samne

Is this really the worst crisis Canada has had in 63 years(the founding of federal NDP). Or, is Jagmeet really that bad?

I mean they were able to win 25 seats in the middle of COVID and prop up Libs. I think a far greater “crisis” than potential tariffs.

His decision to end the coalition with the Liberals based on the conservatives bullying him in a time when the liberals were implementing ,but not yet complete, the programs he advocated for has lost him support immensely in my opinion.

[Marshsparrow]

The NDP is in desperate need of new leadership...

[jamincan]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

Where is that map coming from? I'm looking down at London and it's showing CPC soft lead in London Fanshawe. There is no way that is happening. NDP is leading there, and if they don't retain, that riding is going Liberal. CPC is third place and dropping there.

I'm skeptical that riding level polling is sufficient at this stage to make specific predictions. It is probably only really useful in understanding broader regional trends. As time goes on, polling will start to be done at the riding level and we'll start to get a clearer picture.

[lirette]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

Pierre sure was petty in Petty Harbour yesterday.

CPC handlers wouldn't let the local maga candidate (yes he is pictured in Trump and maga gear in previous social media posts) speak with reporters. CPC reps getting all touchy with the local reporters who tried to get access to the event - pushing - nice look. Police called on a dozen protestors.

He sounded again like Trump:
"radical environmental extremist ideology of the Liberal Party."

Talk bout restricting access to the leader.

He is really good at campaigning for the most die hard supporters who will already be voting for him, but he's really bad at campaigning to get anyone else. This just does not work with the Canadian electorate.

[jamincan]

Originally Posted by samne

Is this really the worst crisis Canada has had in 63 years(the founding of federal NDP). Or, is Jagmeet really that bad?

I mean they were able to win 25 seats in the middle of COVID and prop up Libs. I think a far greater “crisis” than potential tariffs.

I haven't really heard much from the NDP yet, but I have to think they will struggle even more than the Conservatives on how a vote for them makes Canada stronger and more able to deal with US threats. At least the Conservatives have an opportunity to lay out a distinct vision for US relations from the Liberals, even if its one that most voters don't seem eager to swallow at this point in time; I don't really think the NDP has that much liberty, though, as the voters they are trying to attract will be compelled by a more unifying and strong response and the NDP, almost by definition, will represent a more fractured response.

The only thing I can think of is that they should drive home that despite the turmoil we are seeing globally, we can't take our eye off the ball and we have to have a voice in parliament that will advocate for a more equal and fair society. I dunno if it would be compelling enough, but I'm not sure what their options are.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by samne

This is not a CPC collapse. If these numbers hold up the CPC would have 98% of their seats from 2021 election.

It’s the NDP complete collapse absolutely nobody is talking about. If these numbers hold up they would lose 88% of their seats and lose official status. Lowest seat total in history. WTF is Jagmeet doing? Like I said this looks like a controlled demolition…

This is the real story of this election cycle. The NDP is being decimated.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

The conservative may not have collapsed, but they have lost 10 percentage points, from when they were at their peak around the time Trudeau announced his resignation. Around that time, I believe they were projected to win over 200 seats, so it is a mini collapse.

As for the NDP and Singh, it almost appears that his passion is gone, and it's debatable that he secretly was hoping the Conservative lose by any means necessary. He is finally going on the offence, probably as a result of self-preservation of his party. The NDP chose the wrong leader in 2017.

The Bloc collapse is easy to explain. It's far harder to sell the idea of an independent Quebec, if a hostile large neighbour is threatening to annex Canada, especially with the Trump Administration's treatment of any group of people who are not White English speaking Europeans. The average Quebec resident must find the prospect of the United States wiping their culture and language out horrifying.

The Trump Administrations new attack on the Quebec language law, Bill 96, will only help the Liberals more.

The November/December polls showing the CPC winning 220 seats were always totally unrealistic. PP was the political answer to Trudeau. If Trump never happened, and Trudeau stayed on to fight... yes MAYBE these results would have been close to reality. But that was never going to be the case.

CPC is simply returning to their Scheer/OToole numbers. Around 115-125 seats. This is where they will likely end up. Definitely a fall from grace, and an awful sting. But I would not call it a collapse.

NDP on the other hand...

[travis3000]

New Leger Poll:

LPC= 44%
CPC= 38%

Liberals lead by 18 points in Atlantic Canada, 20 points in Quebec, 10 points in Ontario and 10 points in BC.

[missing_middle]

Originally Posted by lirette

He is really good at campaigning for the most die hard supporters who will already be voting for him, but he's really bad at campaigning to get anyone else. This just does not work with the Canadian electorate.

Hard to campaign against a party that barely has any principles or political convictions to violate.

The Liberals are essentially running against the Liberals of 3 years ago. Many of the same crew.

[Dengler Avenue]

Originally Posted by travis3000

The November/December polls showing the CPC winning 220 seats were always totally unrealistic. PP was the political answer to Trudeau. If Trump never happened, and Trudeau stayed on to fight... yes MAYBE these results would have been close to reality. But that was never going to be the case.

CPC is simply returning to their Scheer/OToole numbers. Around 115-125 seats. This is where they will likely end up. Definitely a fall from grace, and an awful sting. But I would not call it a collapse.

NDP on the other hand...

At this point, I really wonder which party can fill the void left by NDP to prevent Canada from becoming bipartisan like the states…

Originally Posted by travis3000

New Leger Poll:

LPC= 44%
CPC= 38%

Liberals lead by 18 points in Atlantic Canada, 20 points in Quebec, and 10 points in Ontario.

With that kind of lead, now I’m all the more curious whether the debates will shake things up. Maybe 20 points LPC lead in Ontario then 10 points BQ or CPC lead in Quebec after?

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by missing_middle

Hard to campaign against a party that barely has any principles or political convictions to violate.

The Liberals are essentially running against the Liberals of 3 years ago. Many of the same crew.

This is why the Liberals are the natural governing party in Canada. They become what Canadians need at the time.

[Dengler Avenue]

Originally Posted by travis3000

This is why the Liberals are the natural governing party in Canada. They become what Canadians need at the time.

Thankfully PP has been effective as an Opposition leader so Canada doesn’t become a de facto one-party rule even if CPC never gains power moving forward.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

At this point, I really wonder which party can fill the void left by NDP to prevent Canada from becoming bipartisan like the states…

I still don’t think we are—in the U.S. there are Dem voters and Republican voters, and a much, much smaller subset of swing voters. The fact that here in Canada we’ve seen a 30-point swing from one party to the other in two months is proof itself that we aren’t nearly as divided by partisanship.

What is clear is that there’s still simply not a lot of traction here for populist, heavily right-wing politics of the sort espoused by Poilievre. The next iteration of the CPC will have to return to a more red tory/centrist position.

Poilievre was never personally popular with a majority of Canadians, and I am 100 percent certain that if he hadn’t spent the past two years buddying up to Jordan Peterson and his ilk, and blathering on about the WEF and woke ideology and defunding the CBC and Liberals forcing people to eat bugs and so on, there wouldn’t be nearly this degree of flight from the CPC in the polls. People were parking their support with the CPC in protest of an exhausted and unpopular LPC. Now that the Liberals look reinvigorated—and especially now that Carney has had a pretty effective two first weeks as PM—people are going, eh, maybe not, Pierre.

The next CPC leader can win back a lot of that support, by leaning hard against the looney-tunes elements of the party.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by missing_middle

Hard to campaign against a party that barely has any principles or political convictions to violate.

A "principled party" is essentially a doctrinaire party which may be rigid and unresponsive to the wants and needs of the electorate. Such a party should not normally expect electoral success.......

Maple MAGA ultra right conservatives currently subverting the CPC should learn this.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

Where is that map coming from? I'm looking down at London and it's showing CPC soft lead in London Fanshawe. There is no way that is happening. NDP is leading there, and if they don't retain, that riding is going Liberal. CPC is third place and dropping there.

338 shows it as a two way battle NDP Liberal but Conservatives 5% behind. That means a uniform swing of 5% towards the Conservatives would suggest Conservatives can come up the middle. That seems very possible even probable. Surely this must be the Liberal high water mark in Ontario.

These models aren't infallible in reflecting local trends but are pretty accurate because broader trends can easily overwhelm any local dynamics. If the Conservatives can get back to winning 50-60 ridings with a decimated NDP vote they should win London Fanshawe. This is the Liberal minority scenario that if I was betting is probably still the most likely outcome though a majority is closing fast as the lead is consistent.