The US Census Bureau thread

[deja vu]

Originally Posted by The North One

Detroit proper is the hardest city in the US to count, this is expected. This count is without a doubt lower than real population. A lot of new residents also keep official addresses outside the city due to insurance rates which makes it worse. The main source of immigrant growth (Middle Eastern and Latino) are especially distrustful of the census so they just don't do it. Pandemic ruined in-person counting and counting events which are essential to cities with height minority populations.

It's also worth noting the bulk of this loss in the decade is very old, it's mostly if not entirely due to the tax foreclosure crisis that peaked at around 2011. There are next to zero tax foreclosures in the city today.

Originally Posted by edale

Predictably, the Detroit homer has issues with data showing that Detroit is still in free fall. A resurgent downtown/inner core can't overcome the continued hollowing out of the neighborhoods. I think this is what people mean when they say the Detroit revitalization narrative is a bit overstated. Pockets of the city are making great strides, but the city overall is still experiencing substantial decline.

I mean, there's at least some evidence to back North up. Detroit has one of the lowest response rates, compared to cities of similar size (51%). The national response rate is 67%. The State of Michigan's response rate is 71% (Detroit Free Press). It is notoriously one of the more difficult places to count accurately because of its size and residents' resistance and distrust. And the "local" Census Bureau office? - it's in Chicago. The Mayor and US Rep (Rashida Tlaib) have been posturing since last summer to contest these results.

Regardless, Detroit's population undoubtedly declined, for the 7th consecutive decade, there's no denying it. But maybe not a free fall as you suggest. At least, not as much as from 2000 to 2010. From 2000 - 2010, the population plummeted by 25%. It dropped less than half of that this past decade (10.5%). And I agree with North, much of it was likely in the beginning of the decade.

[proghousehead]

Any idea if county level Asian populations available broken down by category (Indian Chinese etc)? Or possibly state level?

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by deja vu

If I did my quick math right, Grand Rapids' MSA further solidified its position as a 1,000,000+ metro:

MSA - 2010: 993,670
MSA - 2020: 1,087,592

I believe the CSA was already above 1,000,000, as of the 2010 census (according to Wikipedia at least, this is the four-county metro area plus the cities of Muskegon, Big Rapids, and Holland). It gained almost 100,000 residents:

CSA - 2010: 1,075,723
CSA - 2020: 1,168,015

I'm a little surprised that Grand Rapids (city) did not breach the 200,000 mark (at least, according to the CB data). The 2019 estimates pegged it at 201,000+. It fell short by ~ 1,100 residents:

City - 2010: 188,040
City - 2020: 198,917

Kent County (home to Grand rapids) had healthy growth, at 9.2%. And neighboring Ottawa County had the largest percent growth in the entire state of Michigan, at 12.3%, which contributes to Grand Rapids' MSA & CSA growth.

It looks like 100% of Michigan's growth was in Metro Detroit, Metro Grand Rapids, and Metro Ann Arbor.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by deja vu

I mean, there's at least some evidence to back North up. Detroit has one of the lowest response rates, compared to cities of similar size (51%). The national response rate is 67%. The State of Michigan's response rate is 71% (Detroit Free Press). It is notoriously one of the more difficult places to count accurately because of its size and residents' resistance and distrust. And the "local" Census Bureau office? - it's in Chicago. The Mayor and US Rep (Rashida Tlaib) have been posturing since last summer to contest these results.

Regardless, Detroit's population undoubtedly declined, for the 7th consecutive decade, there's no denying it. But maybe not a free fall as you suggest. At least, not as much as from 2000 to 2010. From 2000 - 2010, the population plummeted by 25%. It dropped less than half of that this past decade (10.5%). And I agree with North, much of it was likely in the beginning of the decade.

There may be some undercounting, but it's marginal. Duggan is not going to contest Detroit into showing growth. They should put more effort into actually addressing the underlying issues behind the decline.

[Buckeye Native 001]

Cincinnati gained a lot more than I or most people expected. I figured somewhere around 302-303k, but apparently 309,000? Damn.

[Crawford]

I don't see why the undercounting in Detroit would necessarily be worse than in Cleveland, and other analogous cities with high poverty and large AA populations.

That's not to say I don't believe there was some undercount. It's likely. I just don't think Detroit was some great urban outlier.

Also, it is me, or does Dallas proper have surprisingly slow growth? The D-FW metroplex has crazy growth, and many of the most desirable D-FW neighborhoods are in Dallas proper.

[Ant131531]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I don't see why the undercounting in Detroit would necessarily be worse than in Cleveland, and other analogous cities with high poverty and large AA populations.

That's not to say I don't believe there was some undercount. It's likely. I just don't think Detroit was some great urban outlier.

Also, it is me, or does Dallas proper have surprisingly slow growth? The D-FW metroplex has crazy growth, and many of the most desirable D-FW neighborhoods are in Dallas proper.

Dallas is by far one of the biggest disappointments. Most cities saw really solid growth in their city propers and Dallas is fairly disappointing for a city with large city limits.

[proghousehead]

At end of day - some major shocks with these numbers. It will take some time to sort through the data and try to make sense of it.

I’m still in awe of NYCs growth - super impressive all things considered.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Ant131531

Dallas is by far one of the biggest disappointments. Most cities saw really solid growth in their city propers and Dallas is fairly disappointing for a city with large city limits.

huh?

according to this chart below, dallas city proper had the 3rd highest growth rate out of the nation's 10 largest city propers. how is that a big disappointment?

[202_Cyclist]

“ The Villages, a retirement community in Florida, was the fastest-growing metro area over the last decade.”

🤢 🤮 🤢 🤮 💩

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I don't see why the undercounting in Detroit would necessarily be worse than in Cleveland, and other analogous cities with high poverty and large AA populations.

That's not to say I don't believe there was some undercount. It's likely. I just don't think Detroit was some great urban outlier.

Also, it is me, or does Dallas proper have surprisingly slow growth? The D-FW metroplex has crazy growth, and many of the most desirable D-FW neighborhoods are in Dallas proper.

Isn't Dallas built out? The only way it can continue grow rapidly is to densify. Fancy neighborhoods aren't adding density.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Ant131531

Dallas is by far one of the biggest disappointments. Most cities saw really solid growth in their city propers and Dallas is fairly disappointing for a city with large city limits.

Dallas proper (which is landlocked) grew by 9% and DFW is already a juggernaut and is poised to be one of the US's top tier metro's in the near future.

[Camelback]

^I'd say that's solid growth.

[Camelback]

What happens to Atlanta's numbers if Buckhead actually secedes from the city of Atlanta?

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by Camelback

What happens to Atlanta's numbers if Buckhead actually secedes from the city of Atlanta?

The 2020 Census numbers won't change, since they measure the situation as of April 1, 2020. If Buckhead actually splits away, you would see the effect in recalculated baseline numbers for the annual estimates, but the official total isn't retroactively changed (sans challenges, but those are for accuracy, not jurisdiction changes).

[Crawford]

Is the narrative of "OMG, America's older urban centers are emptying out due to liberals, crime, taxes and high cost housing" gonna end? I seriously doubt it.

Oh, and my mistake re. Dallas. I was looking at the wrong column. Dallas 2010-2020 growth is indeed solid.

[Camelback]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Is the narrative of "OMG, America's older urban centers are emptying out due to liberals, crime, taxes and high cost housing" gonna end? I seriously doubt it.

No. You're the first to say it though.

The narrative is America grew by 22.7 million between 2010 and 2020 where did they go? And by how much did our cities change during those ten years.

[202_Cyclist]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Is the narrative of "OMG, America's older urban centers are emptying out due to liberals, crime, taxes and high cost housing" gonna end? I seriously doubt it.

But Tucker Carlson told me New York City is a zombie apocalypse ghost town!!!!!!!!

[cactuspunk]

MSA numbers are here under the CBSAs tab: https://www.census.gov/library/visua...tate-data.html

[iheartthed]

Actually, Dallas did perform much better this decade than it did at the 2010 census. It barely grew between 2000-2010, so a 9% growth is quite a rebound.