Do you agree with the Census Bureau's region classifications?

[edale]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

To me, "hub" just means the center of a region, and since Chicago is by far the largest and most important city near the middle of the great cornbelt stretching for 800 miles from Ohio to Nebraska that is the defining feature of "the Midwest" in the minds of outsiders, it absolutely is the hub of the region IMO.

People in Michigan don't think they share a region with Nebraska.

People in Nebraska don't think they share a region with Michigan

Chicagoans are just like "what?".

Yeah, I think it's really Ohio and Michigan (maybe Indiana?) that feel most disconnected from the rest of the Midwest. Ohio has much, MUCH more in common with Pennsylvania than it does Nebraska or Iowa. Yes, there is the agricultural connection, but lots of states are heavily agricultural. There is basically nothing else that connects the heavily urbanized, rust belt eastern Midwest states with the Plains states. Different histories, development patterns, levels of urbanization, time zone...

I can see how Chicago kind of straddles the line between both places. And it certainly is THE dominant city of the entire Midwest, and where young people from Ohio to Nebraska flock to.

[Docere]

Chicago had steel mills, like Cleveland. But it was also a transport/agricultural economy gateway city, like Kansas City.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Docere

Chicago had steel mills, like Cleveland.

Why the past tense? the three largest integrated steel mills in North America (Indiana Harbor, Gary Works, and Burns Harbor) are located within several miles of each other along the southern shore of Lake Michigan, just across Chicago city limits in NW Indiana, where over half of the nation's "new" steel is made.

[lio45]

Agree with Steely on that one: Chicagoland is clearly both "Rust Belt" (or "Steel Belt" or "Heavy Industry Belt" if you prefer, if you think "Rust Belt" sounds too negative) and "Corn Belt".

Greatly unlike Iowa or Buffalo (which are one of these but not both).

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by edale

Yeah, I think it's really Ohio and Michigan (maybe Indiana?) that feel most disconnected from the rest of the Midwest. Ohio has much, MUCH more in common with Pennsylvania than it does Nebraska or Iowa. Yes, there is the agricultural connection, but lots of states are heavily agricultural. There is basically nothing else that connects the heavily urbanized, rust belt eastern Midwest states with the Plains states. Different histories, development patterns, levels of urbanization, time zone...

I can see how Chicago kind of straddles the line between both places. And it certainly is THE dominant city of the entire Midwest, and where young people from Ohio to Nebraska flock to.

Yeah, IAWTC... Nebraska and Michigan could hardly be more different, and they aren't even close to each other. The distance between Detroit and the nearest border of Nebraska is about 200 miles more than the distance between and NYC. Detroit is closer to Atlanta than it is to Omaha.

[SFBruin]

I think that it does an okay job, but I would probably reorganize some parts of the South as being the Northeast.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by edale

Yeah, I think it's really Ohio and Michigan (maybe Indiana?) that feel most disconnected from the rest of the Midwest. Ohio has much, MUCH more in common with Pennsylvania than it does Nebraska or Iowa.

Pennsylvania is not Midwestern, but it has more in common with Ohio than it does with Massachusetts.

Obviously neighbors are going to be pretty similar for the most part, rarely is a state border a dramatic shift even if the official region changes

[jpdivola]

For the most part they make sense. There is obviously some overlap between regions. Western NY and PA have more in common with Ohio than the costal I-95 corridor. Maryland/Delaware are the two states that seem most debatable. They are transitional states than have elements of both the North East and upper Atlantic southern states like VA and to a lesser extent NC. But on the whole I would say they are more northern than southern.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by Docere

Pennsylvania is not Midwestern, but it has more in common with Ohio than it does with Massachusetts.

Obviously neighbors are going to be pretty similar for the most part, rarely is a state border a dramatic shift even if the official region changes

This is so exhausting. Pennsylvania is decidedly Mid-Atlantic. It has very little in common with Ohio at this point and seems to diverge more every year. It's its own thing.

On top of that, at this point probably 70% of the population of the state lives south and east of I-81 along the Northeast Corridor and these are also the areas of the state that are growing quickly, as opposed the western and northern parts of the state which continue to empty out. If the entire state was growing the way SE PA was, from the Lancaster/Harrisburg/York up through Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton and the entirety of the Philadelphia region, it would be considered a high growth state.

The populace of that part of the state is more educated, diverse, and likely to be an immigrant by an order of magnitude compared to Western PA. At this point, that is Pennsylvania. Not the other way around.

[UrbanRevival]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

This is so exhausting. Pennsylvania is decidedly Mid-Atlantic. It has very little in common with Ohio at this point and seems to diverge more every year. It's its own thing.

On top of that, at this point probably 70% of the population of the state lives south and east of I-81 along the Northeast Corridor and these are also the areas of the state that are growing quickly, as opposed the western and northern parts of the state which continue to empty out. If the entire state was growing the way SE PA was, from the Lancaster/Harrisburg/York up through Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton and the entirety of the Philadelphia region, it would be considered a high growth state.

The populace of that part of the state is more educated, diverse, and likely to be an immigrant by an order of magnitude compared to Western PA. At this point, that is Pennsylvania. Not the other way around.

All very true. Pennsylvania's growth and economic/cultural orientation has long been FAR more "eastward-looking" than "westward-looking" (even in Pittsburgh; Pittsburghers are MUCH more likely to have connections with NYC, Philly, and DC than any city to its west). And its cultural center-of-gravity and economic destiny is now firmly rooted in the state's "BosWash" southeastern quadrant and the smattering of counties in NEPA adjacent to the NY Metro area (or east/south of the common I-81 delineator as you note). This becomes even more evident as time marches on.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

This is so exhausting. Pennsylvania is decidedly Mid-Atlantic. It has very little in common with Ohio at this point and seems to diverge more every year. It's its own thing.

On top of that, at this point probably 70% of the population of the state lives south and east of I-81 along the Northeast Corridor and these are also the areas of the state that are growing quickly, as opposed the western and northern parts of the state which continue to empty out. If the entire state was growing the way SE PA was, from the Lancaster/Harrisburg/York up through Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton and the entirety of the Philadelphia region, it would be considered a high growth state.

The populace of that part of the state is more educated, diverse, and likely to be an immigrant by an order of magnitude compared to Western PA. At this point, that is Pennsylvania. Not the other way around.

I've seen more of Pennsylvania and Ohio than I have of any state I have ever resided in... And there's much more overlap than you're acknowledging. Both are big states that have pretty distinct cultures on various sides of the state. Both have strong ties to Appalachia. Both have strong ties to the industrial era. Both have pretty large urbanized populations. They have almost the exact same population density. They are far more alike than they are different, IMO.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I've seen more of Pennsylvania and Ohio than I have of any state I have ever resided in... And there's much more overlap than you're acknowledging. Both are big states that have pretty distinct cultures on various sides of the state. Both have strong ties to Appalachia. Both have strong ties to the industrial era. Both have pretty large urbanized populations. They have almost the exact same population density. They are far more alike than they are different, IMO.

Stating it this way is like looking at an electoral map and determining that most people in the US are conservative because there are red blotches in all the places where nobody lives (most of our country). Of course, this is not true.

I don't care about historical similarities. You can make the argument that Pittsburgh is similar to Ohio. Southeastern PA is nothing like Ohio.

Pittsburgh is perhaps the whitest big city in the country. 86% of the regional population of Pittsburgh is white. In the Philadelphia Metro, 63% is white. Only 8% of Pittsburgers are Black and 6% Asian/Hispanic/Other. In the Philly area, the numbers are 20 and 17%.

On top of that, the regions are diverging politically both at the state level and the regional level. Whereas PA went +1.2 for Biden, Ohio went +8.1 for Trump. Those aren't "similar" results. There's an order of magnitude between them, close to 10% points. On top of that, SE PA's suburbs in particular continue to bank left hard and fast: Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery Counties went for the largest D margins in history. Similar results were seen in the counties around Allentown, Bethlehem, and Harrisburg. Meanwhile, in Ohio, not a single suburban county outside of the core counties (Franklin, Cuyahuga, etc) went for the Democrats.

The gulf between the states idealogically and demographically widens with every passing day.

PA is nothing like Ohio.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

Stating it this way is like looking at an electoral map and determining that most people in the US are conservative because there are red blotches in all the places where nobody lives (most of our country). Of course, this is not true.

I don't care about historical similarities. You can make the argument that Pittsburgh is similar to Ohio. Southeastern PA is nothing like Ohio.

Pittsburgh is perhaps the whitest big city in the country. 86% of the regional population of Pittsburgh is white. In the Philadelphia Metro, 63% is white. Only 8% of Pittsburgers are Black and 6% Asian/Hispanic/Other. In the Philly area, the numbers are 20 and 17%.

On top of that, the regions are diverging politically both at the state level and the regional level. Whereas PA went +1.2 for Biden, Ohio went +8.1 for Trump. Those aren't "similar" results. There's an order of magnitude between them, close to 10% points. On top of that, SE PA's suburbs in particular continue to bank left hard and fast: Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery Counties went for the largest D margins in history. Similar results were seen in the counties around Allentown, Bethlehem, and Harrisburg. Meanwhile, in Ohio, not a single suburban county outside of the core counties (Franklin, Cuyahuga, etc) went for the Democrats.

The gulf between the states idealogically and demographically widens with every passing day.

PA is nothing like Ohio.

Eastern Ohio is much more diverse than western PA. Cleveland metro is like 20% Black.

[iheartthed]

Pennsylvania vs Ohio racial/ethnic demographics (2020):
White: 76.6% vs 79.9%
Black: 11.8% vs 14%
Hispanic: 8% vs 4%
Asian: 4.5% vs 3%

These aren't dramatically different places demographically. They've also both been trending away from predominantly non-Hispanic white in recent decades.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Pennsylvania vs Ohio racial/ethnic demographics (2020):
White: 76.6% vs 79.9%
Black: 11.8% vs 14%
Hispanic: 8% vs 4%
Asian: 4.5% vs 3%

These aren't dramatically different places demographically. They've also both been trending away from predominantly non-Hispanic white in recent decades.

Well they're very different socially.

Ohio has all Republican government: both houses of Legislature (super majorities), state Senate, Governership, Supreme Court. It has 2 Republican Senators. Pat Ryan got slaugherted in the midterms. It going all in one white nationalism and Trumpism.

In contrast, PA just flipped it's State House blue, has a Democratic governor and a democratic super majority on its Supreme Court. We have two democratic Senators and a slight majority in the US House in terms of PA representation. It's suburbs are moving leftward fast. Not Ohio like at all.

[jpdivola]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

Stating it this way is like looking at an electoral map and determining that most people in the US are conservative because there are red blotches in all the places where nobody lives (most of our country). Of course, this is not true.

I don't care about historical similarities. You can make the argument that Pittsburgh is similar to Ohio. Southeastern PA is nothing like Ohio.

Pittsburgh is perhaps the whitest big city in the country. 86% of the regional population of Pittsburgh is white. In the Philadelphia Metro, 63% is white. Only 8% of Pittsburgers are Black and 6% Asian/Hispanic/Other. In the Philly area, the numbers are 20 and 17%.

On top of that, the regions are diverging politically both at the state level and the regional level. Whereas PA went +1.2 for Biden, Ohio went +8.1 for Trump. Those aren't "similar" results. There's an order of magnitude between them, close to 10% points. On top of that, SE PA's suburbs in particular continue to bank left hard and fast: Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery Counties went for the largest D margins in history. Similar results were seen in the counties around Allentown, Bethlehem, and Harrisburg. Meanwhile, in Ohio, not a single suburban county outside of the core counties (Franklin, Cuyahuga, etc) went for the Democrats.

The gulf between the states idealogically and demographically widens with every passing day.

PA is nothing like Ohio.

I would say it's more like the gap between Eastern PA and Western Pa continues to widen by the day. Eastern PA is basically CT/NJ/MD. It's not exactly booming. But it growing modestly, and is reasonably prosperous and tapped into the eastern seaboard megalopolis. Western PA is more classically rust belt and has a lot in common with the western half of Upstate NY, Ohio, West Virginia. Pittsburgh has elements of Cincinnati (topography, architecture), Cleveland (proximity, former steel hubs with eds and meds, industrial age theaters, museums, libraries) and Columbus (emerging tech scene).

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

.

On top of that, the regions are diverging politically both at the state level and the regional level. Whereas PA went +1.2 for Biden, Ohio went +8.1 for Trump. Those aren't "similar" results.

States can differ politically/demographically/socially and still share some general overall similarities.

IL and IN are a good case study in this.

IL was a +17 for Biden in 2020
IN was a +16 for trump in 2020

That's a 33 point differential!!!

And yet, no one in their right mind would ever claim that IL is nothing like IN at all.

Illinois just happens to have a Chicago while Indiana does not. That IS the difference. otherwise, there really isn't one.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

Well they're very different socially.

Ohio has all Republican government: both houses of Legislature (super majorities), state Senate, Governership, Supreme Court. It has 2 Republican Senators. Pat Ryan got slaugherted in the midterms. It going all in one white nationalism and Trumpism.

In contrast, PA just flipped it's State House blue, has a Democratic governor and a democratic super majority on its Supreme Court. We have two democratic Senators and a slight majority in the US House in terms of PA representation. It's suburbs are moving leftward fast. Not Ohio like at all.

Ohio has one of the most progressive senators in the US Senate. And both states had 1 Dem and 1 Rep US senator as recently as last year.

Statehouse representation can be grossly affected by gerrymandering so I would be careful about using it as a litmus test. These two states aren't that far apart culturally.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

This is so exhausting. Pennsylvania is decidedly Mid-Atlantic.

Right, but saying Pennsylvania shares similarities with a neighbor in the Midwest is not assigning it to the Midwest. I don't think they're remarkably similar, but yes it has more in common with a neighbor not in the Northeast (Ohio) than with fellow "Northeastern" state Massachusetts. I don't think saying that is really that controversial.

[edale]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

Well they're very different socially.

Ohio has all Republican government: both houses of Legislature (super majorities), state Senate, Governership, Supreme Court. It has 2 Republican Senators. Pat Ryan got slaugherted in the midterms. It going all in one white nationalism and Trumpism.

In contrast, PA just flipped it's State House blue, has a Democratic governor and a democratic super majority on its Supreme Court. We have two democratic Senators and a slight majority in the US House in terms of PA representation. It's suburbs are moving leftward fast. Not Ohio like at all.

Ohio has one Democratic Senator (Sherrod Brown) and one Republican (JD Vance ). Tim Ryan didn't get slaughtered, though he did lose. Ohio is also gerrymandered to shit...it's not as deep red as it appears. Pennsylvania was also very gerrymandered, but the courts stepped in and now it has much better and fairer representation. Same thing happened in Michigan.

Do we recall that Pennsylvania went for Trump in 2016? It's not like PA is California or Massachusetts or something. Ohio went for Obama in 2008 and 2012. Politics shift all the time. Western PA and Ohio are very similar. Cleveland and Pittsburgh are like sister cities. Youngstown is basically in PA. You disagree with this comparison because Philly is not like Ohio. But Philly doesn't equal Pennsylvania.