CHICAGO | Politics and Current Events

[SamInTheLoop]

Originally Posted by moorhosj1

Not surprised that The National Review doesn’t like Chicago’s pick for mayor. That said, lots of false assumptions and inacurracies in that article. What “sense of self-preservation” are they referring to? Did conservatives do well in the 2022 election? I must have missed that.

Why no mention of how poorly conservatives performed in Illinois school board elections or a liberal justice winning by 10% in Wisconsin? I guess it doesn’t fit the narrative of “crazy liberals”.

Well, that wasn't a news article. It was a classic right wing screed.

[ithakas]

My hopes for the new mayor:

His major legacy is to mirror Anne Hidalgo's approach in aggressively improving walkability, transit and streetscapes across the city, particularly in central, near-central and progressive-populated areas. I think this would take the city's desirability to another level and unite much of the electorate.

He forms a close collaborating relationship with Governor Pritzker, whose approach to running Illinois has mostly taken the best aspects of progressivism and pragmatism.

[Kngkyle]

Johnson winning probably increases the likelihood that Chicago hosts the next Democratic Convention. (although I think Atlanta is the favorite)

I'm also on-board with his unity messaging and outreach to the business community and Pritzker.

This could, of course, go very wrong very quickly if he insists on a head tax or financial transaction tax once the rubber meets the road in a few months. I don't love the real estate transfer tax increase for $1M+ properties but it's probably the least bad of the tax increase proposals. I question how much that would even raise though... I'll withhold judgement until he releases a real budget proposal... not that leftist fairy tale budget from the campaign.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Kngkyle

Johnson winning probably increases the likelihood that Chicago hosts the next Democratic Convention. (although I think Atlanta is the favorite)

I'm also on-board with his unity messaging and outreach to the business community and Pritzker.

This could, of course, go very wrong very quickly if he insists on a head tax or financial transaction tax once the rubber meets the road in a few months. I don't love the real estate transfer tax increase for $1M+ properties but it's probably the least bad of the tax increase proposals. I question how much that would even raise though... I'll withhold judgement until he releases a real budget proposal... not that leftist fairy tale budget from the campaign.

A lot of the taxes need General Assembly approval really, and Pritzker I believe recently said he's completely opposed to the financial transaction tax. There is a part of the IL Constitution that says that cities of 25K+ population in Illinois cannot just choose themselves to introduce taxes like municipal income taxes without the General Assembly of Illinois even passing it. And I believe this covers other types of use taxes too like the above.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

while procrastinating on making a figure for a proposal, I made this map. It doesn't tell us anything we don't already know but...

..


I count 13 homicides so far this year in Vallas-voting districts, vs. 111 in Johnson voting districts, with the caveat that I don't know how accurate the latitude/longitude I'm scraping off the chicago sun times homicide tracker is, which could potentially make some positions hop over precinct boundaries.

Yeah I mean it's pretty well established that most of the Vallas wards are those where violence is actually pretty low. But some of them did have an increase, which may have scared enough people. The ones in Johnson wards are those which may have been at higher levels of violence for longer.

By the way, this is the official source of homicides. They have lat/long but it's "rounded up" to the nearest block. Still pretty accurate regardless:
https://data.cityofchicago.org/Public-Sa...s-of-Homicides-and-Non-Fa/gumc-mgzr/data

[Kngkyle]

The abortion comment from a decade ago is what did Vallas in. Signaling that you are against abortion, in any way, is basically a death sentence in any liberal or even moderate jurisdiction after Roe fell. The details are irrelevant. The other dumb comments didn't help (Awake IL attendance, more "Republican", etc.) but those were survivable. Abortion is not.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Halsted & Villagio

Not to sound alarmist because most do not take out their anger this way... but it is that small % that do, that make all the headlines. And to put it more bluntly/coldly... it is bad for business. That small percentage of shootings happening downtown or in enclaves on the northside, those shots ring around the world because the media seizes on them... and makes them the banner for Chicago.

Agree, but you'd expect media locally to cover the fact that things are reducing in various areas to pre-pandemic levels. Shooting incidents in Lincoln Park + Lakeview + North Center + Lincoln Square for:

10/1/22 - 4/5/23: 7
10/1/21 - 4/5/22: 19
10/1/20 - 4/5/21: 6
10/1/19 - 4/5/20: 9
10/1/18 - 4/5/19: 4
10/1/17 - 4/5/18: 9
10/1/16 - 4/5/17: 8
10/1/15 - 4/5/16: 7
10/1/14 - 4/5/15: 3
10/1/13 - 4/5/14: 5
10/1/12 - 4/5/13: 2
10/1/11 - 4/5/12: 4
10/1/10 - 4/5/11: 2

From a "since fall 2015" perspective, right now in these just over 6 month increments is pretty similar to pre pandemic in various areas. Near North Side + Loop for 10/1/22 - 4/5/23 has half the shootings as it did from 10/1/21 - 4/5/22. It's still above pre-pandemic numbers, but only by a few. As I've talked about before, there's a lot of the most violent crime following the same trajectory of the decreases experienced from 2016 to 2018.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Kngkyle

The abortion comment from a decade ago is what did Vallas in. Signaling that you are against abortion, in any way, is basically a death sentence in any liberal or even moderate jurisdiction after Roe fell. The details are irrelevant. The other dumb comments didn't help (Awake IL attendance, more "Republican", etc.) but those were survivable. Abortion is not.

He literally has the same position on it as Biden and Pelosi. I'm not sure how people fail to understand this. He was not against abortion rights outside of what his religion stated.

[Kngkyle]

Originally Posted by marothisu

He literally has the same position on it as Biden and Pelosi. I'm not sure how people fail to understand this. He was not against abortion rights outside of what his religion stated.

I'm well aware. Doesn't change the fact that that is what did him in. Johnson campaign used it very effectively to their advantage.

[Steely Dan]

Note:

We are NOT going to have an abortion debate in this thread


If you have thoughts on abortion that you feel you must express on SSP, there is an appropriate thread for them in the CE toilet.

The Chicago mayoral election is over and Johnson won. Now it's time for everyone to move forward, or more accurately in this case, it's time for everyone to bend over for the taxman.

[CrazyCres]

Gov. J.B. Pritzker casts doubt on part of Brandon Johnson's tax plan after first meeting with mayor-elect

Brandon Johnson will be looking to Springfield for help with parts of his estimated $450 million package of tax proposals, but Gov. J.B. Pritzker made clear after meeting Friday with Chicago’s mayor-elect that he doesn’t support a major component of the plan: a tax on financial transactions.

As part of a plan to help stabilize the city’s finances, Johnson, a Cook County commissioner and Chicago Teachers Union organizer, has proposed a tax of $1 to $2 per securities trading contract, a concept that has long been floated in the statehouse without gaining traction.

After an hourlong meeting with Johnson in the governor’s Chicago office, Pritzker told reporters during a joint news conference that he has “not stood for a transaction tax” because he believes financial services companies would relocate their operations or their computer servers if one were enacted.

Link: https://www.chicagotribune.com/politics/...07-53gtueckune4lkgajlfccj4xhy-story.html

[Klippenstein]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

The Chicago mayoral election is over and Johnson won. Now it's time for everyone to move forward, or more accurately in this case, it's time for everyone to bend over for the taxman.

More accurately? What taxes have been passed?

[Steely Dan]

^ wait for it.

At least JB will act as a bullwark of sorts against having the entire chicago finance industry move wholesale to the sunbelt, and hopefully against Brandon's other hair-brained taxation schemes that would only serve to make other businesses leave the city.

But us regular old property tax paying middle class schlubs are boned.

[Chicago Shawn]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

^ wait for it.

At least JB will act act as a bullwark against having the entire chicago finance industry move wholesale to the sunbelt.

But us regular old property tax paying middle class schlubs are boned.

Yep, I’m in the same pessimistic camp. Johnson was molded by CTU and it isn’t their style to be pragmatic and collaborative. Their leadership prides themselves in being combative while advocating for every tax imaginable and Johnson’s language throughout the campaign doesn’t give me much hope he will be different. His ‘drift to center’ in the campaign wasn’t really that, just him backtracking on campaign promises and platform stances after being called out for them being too damaging or too unrealistic while lying is — off in the debates over things he previously said on the record or about his abilities as mayor. For example on the CBS2 debate his youth employment plan centers on him having ‘jurisdiction over hiring at the city’s sister agencies of CPS, Streets and San and CTA (uh, no you don’t…CPS and CTA are not the same as Streets and San) or Johnson telling Crains he will just go to Springfield over the jet fuel tax (nope again, this is FEDERAL law restricting where such taxation can be spent). Johnson is smarter than this, at least I presume so, and thus I worry about how truthful and forthcoming as well as collaborative he will be as mayor.

In the meantime, I know the situation CTA isn’t going to get better, and for me personally this is my greatest concern. At least Paul Vallas was hammering the point of the impending fiscal crises home, which honestly was not talked about enough in the forums/debates. The COVID relief funds are ending this year, fare recovery is at 18% and without a cash infusion and sustained increased revenue the system is going to financially collapse. Lori’s apathy towards this issue was really unbelievable and where she lost me for good. My hope was that with cops on the platforms, ridership would increase enough, combined with some financial help from Springfield, to float the system until downtown returns to a similar pre-covid daytime population. However, since that is not happening and I strongly worry about the head tax talk having a chilling impact on company decisions as to whether keeping a downtown office post COVID is even worthwhile investment, I now feel we are staring right into the impending financial collapse of the CTA and that the death spiral has already begun. CTA can’t even meet it’s hiring targets for new drivers, in part because these positions are not seen as a safe work environment.

I really hope Johnson can impress me and prove my pessimistic view wrong, I really do. Thus far, I’m liking what I’m seeing, but the real test is going to be actually governing within confines of today’s realities. Can he divorce himself from CTU’s talking points and govern pragmatically? I hope so and time will tell.

Also, JB is really the model most democrats should be following. Very progressive and yet pragmatic, collaborative and pro-business. IMO, best governor this state has had within my lifetime.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Chicago Shawn

Also, JB is really the model most democrats should be following. Very progressive and yet pragmatic, collaborative and pro-business. IMO, best governor this state has had within my lifetime.

Too bad Buckner didn't gain mote traction. That's basically what he was running on. Socially progressive but pragmatic and pro business. Had statements multiple times about how raising taxes isn't how you fix anything but being pro business and growth minded is. His plan was all centered around growth (get chicago to 3+ million residents again) instead of new taxes.

A lot of the taxes that Johnson proposed probably won't happen. Multiple like the state income tax and financial transaction tax require state approval. The jet fuel might violate federal law. He might be able to pass a few like some small hotel surcharges but it will probably be after much compromise.

There's also other ways to decrease government spending while not taxing. People should look for ways to streamline and/or automate various government processes (may take initial investments, but in the long run...) for example.

Maybe I give him too much credit but I do really believe that Johnson probably knew some of this and knows some of what he wants on terms of tax is very difficult to get. I like the message of being a great unifier, but I won't hold my breath. I hope he succeeds in many ways but not at the expense of its residents and businesses.

[moorhosj1]

Originally Posted by CrazyCres

Brandon Johnson will be looking to Springfield for help with parts of his estimated $450 million package of tax proposals, but Gov. J.B. Pritzker made clear after meeting Friday with Chicago’s mayor-elect that he doesn’t support a major component of the plan: a tax on financial transactions.

I remember 4 days ago when the media was scaring us with a $800 million tax plan. That got cut in half real quick. $450 million would be 2.7% of the $16.7 billion city budget.

My guess is that we get the additional taxes on real estate sales over $1 million but not much else from Johnson’s proposals. He’ll have to go into TIFs if he wants more.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by moorhosj1

I remember 4 days ago when the media was scaring us with a $800 million tax plan. That got cut in half real quick. $450 million would be 2.7% of the $16.7 billion city budget.

My guess is that we get the additional taxes on real estate sales over $1 million but not much else from Johnson’s proposals. He’ll have to go into TIFs if he wants more.

Which is what I've been talking about for a little bit as I've been a broken record. Johnson cannot pass whatever he wants, he's not going to get enough city council sign off on various taxes anyway, and then there are others which require 3/5 vote in IL General Assembly and city council doesn't even matter. I think that people need to learn how stuff is passed in government in Chicago. even members like Jason Ervin are saying "hold up a second" to Johnson already.

My guess is we'll get a "mansion tax" but I'm going to say that it won't be $1M+, it will get compromised to a little higher probably minimum $1.25M+ or maybe even $2M+. Or they'll drop the rate a little as a compromise. They will probably look to New York State/City as an "OK" which the state has had a 1% mansion tax on $1M+ properties since 1989 and then NYC passed a supplemental progressive one in 2019 that ranges from an extra 1% to 3.9%. NYC has way higher prices than here and way more $1M+ properties, but in 2019 when it was enacted, they expected it to raise $365M in a year. Crains estimate was $221M raised in that proposal. The rates are a bit high again so my guess is they'd get pushed downward if this has any chance of getting passed.

Anyway, that's my guess too, just like you - we'll get a mansion tax and it either will be a lower percentage or it'll be on a little higher than just $1M. He might get something like a small extra 50 cent fee per night per hotel room or something like that is my guess.

Pritzker will talk him out of even trying for a financial transaction tax and I doubt the income tax would pass the General Assembly currently but you never know.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by moorhosj1

I remember 4 days ago when the media was scaring us with a $800 million tax plan. That got cut in half real quick.

The Sun-times article on the JB meeting yesterday referenced the $800M tax figure, so who knows what the actual number is?


And it doesn't much matter at this point because the only things we know for a fact are:

1. Brandon is a product of the radical left of CTU leadership.

2. CTU leadership has never met a tax they didn't fall head over heels in love with.


If Johnson somehow becomes smart enough to start divorcing himself from the the CTU's abject lunacy, his mayorship may not be a compete trainwreck for the city.

Time will tell, but I'm not optimistic.

[left of center]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

If Johnson somehow becomes smart enough to start divorcing himself from the the CTU's abject lunacy, his mayorship may not be a compete trainwreck for the city.

This. I'm really hoping for this. While I understand that we live in a "high tax" city, I cannot justify ever more taxes when I don't really see where this money is going to better my life or the life of my fellow taxpayers. Our infrastructure is rusting away, our roads are full of potholes, and city services remain mediocre at best. At some point, you need to do more with the money you have. There is waste in the system that can be weeded out in order to free up funding for Johnson's plans. Of course it won't be easy to get rid of so-and-so's useless nephew from the payroll, but it can be done if there is the right motivation. Lets hope Johnson pivots from more taxation towards attacking corruption.

[Rizzo]

Originally Posted by left of center

This. I'm really hoping for this. While I understand that we live in a "high tax" city, I cannot justify ever more taxes when I don't really see where this money is going to better my life or the life of my fellow taxpayers. Our infrastructure is rusting away, our roads are full of potholes, and city services remain mediocre at best. At some point, you need to do more with the money you have. There is waste in the system that can be weeded out in order to free up funding for Johnson's plans. Of course it won't be easy to get rid of so-and-so's useless nephew from the payroll, but it can be done if there is the right motivation. Lets hope Johnson pivots from more taxation towards attacking corruption.

Roughly a third of your taxes go to non-educational , non County entities. Roads and non-sewer infrastructure are the funding remnants left over. I think Chicago maintains 90% of roads and sidewalks reasonably well. I bike everyday so I’d be complaining more if they were really that pothole ridden. Thankfully our mild winter spared roads from ice damage. Probably the worst is viaduct conduction but that’s the railroad’s responsibility.

Response to repairs is fair. My parents live in a small town with high taxes and high service per capita. They had a water main leak in their front yard. Took the city a full day to respond. It was temporarily held together for nearly a year and their sidewalk had gravel. Literally everyone knows each other in town so it’s not like they didn’t care. Parts, materials and available labor are a challenge for all municipalities