Transit Fantasies

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by FarmerHaight

You're right, Langley is next because it's already being built. And in the 10-year plan the only explicit Skytrain expansion is the extension to UBC.

But there are two other corridors mentioned where Translink will implement "BRT and Study Alternatives". These two corridors are Metrotown to Park Royal and KGB, which you mentioned.

Langley is supposed to be finished by 2028, so I think it is reasonable to expect the next expansion to break ground around 2030 (or earlier if built concurrently with Langley). Translink has told us priority 1 is UBC and priority 2A and 2B are NS and KGB. Considering that the mayors want NS to become number one on that list ahead of both UBC and KGB, I think it is reasonable to think Metrotown to Park Royal will be first. But as you mentioned the mayors don't always get what they want, so we're all just guessing.

But the one corridor that is only mentioned as due for a BRT upgrade and for which Translink does not plan to "Study Alternatives" is Lonsdale to DT via First Narrows.

Technically, no North Shore crossing or Marine Drive Skytrain/grade separation is in that either. If you want to go 100% by the map, the Skytrain would end at Phibbs, and stay that way until >2050s.

Not a great connector.

This is not true. I want Broadway to UBC and 41/49 to UBC and a Hastings line. But I also think Surrey in the next decade or two will need as much if not more new rapid transit infrastructure than Vancouver because of population projections.

I do not think overall demand for transit to Vancouver will fall. In fact, it will probably rise because of the Broadway Plan. But I think Vancouver's transit demand may increase marginally and eventually plateau, while Surrey's transit demand may increase exponentially as Surrey Central is built out as the metro's second job centre.

That's what I disagree with. I doubt Vancouver demand will plateau- because there being 2 centers still means people travel between them a ton. Surrey's growth will still increase demand for Vancouver. The two are complimentary.

I never mentioned a 2030 opening date. Whatever project starts when Langley is completed will likely take seven years or less (Langley is taking five, UBC is taking four) and I think NS will jump the que ahead of UBC and KGB. I may or may not be correct, but I think whatever project is next after Langley and Broadway will be open by 2035 pending funding constraints.

Sorry, I meant 2030s. UBC will go first 100% (by far the most complete and highest demand). NS and KGB may compete over the next slot- if we're being generous and not assuming massive increases in funding, NS will occur sometime in 2038-2045. Hence, my 2045 date.

IWMB expansion is also likely the next freeway expansion project post-George Massey. If the NDP gets kicked out of power, we might get it around the same time as Skytrain.

I think both a First Narrows and Second Narrows alignment would include Marine Drive, so the east-west connection within the north shore communities would be greatly improved either way. But the Second Narrows option as you say would have a much larger impact on the metro as a whole.

It could be argued that removing vehicles from the Lionsgate isn't nearly as important as removing them from the IWM. Yes, emergency vehicles use the Lionsgate regularly, but the IWM is part of the TCH and as such carries a ton of commercial vehicles that are critical to the economy. Removing a few thousand vehicles from that crossing everyday so that commercial traffic flows more smoothly would be a huge benefit.

IWMB also will likely be expanded in the future. Lions' Gate won't. That's something to keep in mind.

Originally Posted by FarmerHaight

If Park Royal connects to DT via a spur (and therefore a transfer at Capilano station or something), then I doubt there will be any time savings compared to a bus. As I mentioned, 10 minutes from Park Royal to Burrard via bus, 5 minutes via Skytrain with three interim stops. Add an extra stop and waiting for a transfer and suddenly there are no time savings (although Skytrain is more reliable and consistent than a bus, which would help on those crazy weekends when seemingly everyone and their dog shops at Park Royal.) If a line is routed via First Narrows it has to go directly to Park Royal before turning east.

Green is Marine Dr. Skytrain, Blue is Expo extension to connect to Lonsdale and Park Royal.

It may also go from Park Royal to Capilano Mall, then backwards onto Expo, if a west spur isn't feasible here (as described originally for Columbia), or if you want to only have 1 transfer station instead of 2. (Norgate and Cap Mall).


There is 1 stop in the West End (or Coal Harbour, since it's a direct connection to Waterfront in this version) before reaching the transfer station at Cap Mall.

So 2 interim stops.

The closest analogy on Skytrain would be the 7.6km section from Lougheed T. Center to Inlet Center, or 12 min. 14 minutes with the extra stop at Cap Mall (or extending the analogous Skytrain path from Production Way to Inlet Center instead)
That's a consistent 6+ minutes improvement, or about 1/4th the journey time. Optimistically, 1/3rd. Also, you get a station on the West End/Coal Harbour area.

Same crossing time for Waterfront to Lonsdale (a bit faster if you remove a station on Mission 1.)

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Okay, so we are looking at the same study... no ridership, no cost/benefit, and as has been observed, no accounting for the Willingdon Corridor in reducing traffic. A bunch of one-sentence blurbs aren't much better for predicting TransLink's decision-making; 5B and 5C also include "opportunity to stimulate mode shift and reduce congestion on IWMB," and all options save 1A (which has been taken out of the running) keep the SeaBus.

It's got to be 2A or one of the 5s to connect Park Royal. Having spent a lot of time waiting at Brighouse, Lansdowne, Aberdeen, YVR and Sapperton, I can confirm that spurs are lousy.

Well, the rest also imply Seabus isn't going to be used much. If we go back to 15-30 min service, there's an argument to just get rid of the thing and save the maintenance costs, and push everyone onto Skytrain, since Skytrain is going to be much more consistent for most trips, even if it's maybe slightly slower for a few trips.

They may preserve it with only 1-2 Seabuses operational if they're forced to.

Did I say or imply that Norgate would terminate at Central Lonsdale? Even if it continues to Phibbs, locals have (again) explained how the ride would actually be slightly longer than the SeaBus; in other words, one can wait at Waterfront, ride across the harbour to Lonsdale and grab the train eastward from there... and it would be roughly the same as riding the SkyTrain all the way, give or take ~5 minutes. So it's tied with Phibbs in that regard, and so the only flat-out "winners" with a Norgate alignment are indeed just West Van, Norgate itself and the West End.

I showed above the crossing at Norgate (both having terminuses at Waterfront) would have similar crossing times to Seabus to either Lonsdale or Park Royal) (12-14 min), while Skytrain has better frequencies and is more flexible.

I agree spurs suck.

But even splitting Expo into 2 would have >= 2x the frequency vs Seabus (4 min vs 10-15 min).


Moving the transfer to Norgate instead of Cap Mall makes it a bit worse for Lonsdale, but it's not a massive difference.