Transit Fantasies

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by fredinno

Well, the rest also imply Seabus isn't going to be used much. If we go back to 15-30 min service, there's an argument to just get rid of the thing and save the maintenance costs, and push everyone onto Skytrain, since Skytrain is going to be much more consistent for most trips, even if it's maybe slightly slower for a few trips.

They may preserve it with only 1-2 Seabuses operational if they're forced to.



I showed above the crossing at Norgate (both having terminuses at Waterfront) would have similar crossing times to Seabus to either Lonsdale or Park Royal) (12-14 min), while Skytrain has better frequencies and is more flexible.

I agree spurs suck.

But even splitting Expo into 2 would have >= 2x the frequency vs Seabus (4 min vs 10-15 min).


Moving the transfer to Norgate instead of Cap Mall makes it a bit worse for Lonsdale, but it's not a massive difference.

Context:

• Circuitous route does not provide the fastest travel times between key OD pairs
  • Substantial trips via SeaBus were still shown in the ridership modelling

All it means is that the long way around saves you no time. There really is no possible universe where SeaBus service drops to every half-hour - like you said, downtown's too important. At “worst” it stays at 10-15 minutes.

Don’t forget that 2A and 3A are supposed to branch off the Expo at Burrard. That means only half the trains can go to Lonsdale while the other half have to go to Waterfront, so the Expo's 2.5-5 minute headways are now 5-10.
Let’s break it down: depending on peak or off-peak, that’s a 5-10 minute wait and a 13-minute ride for the Norgate extension... or a 10-15 minute wait and a 12-minute ride for the ferry... so at most you save 14 minutes on the SkyTrain or 11 minutes on the SeaBus... meaning statistically, Norgate gives you three whole minutes of your life back, just enough time to watch a commercial break. Not the best use of $4+ billion.

A Park Royal spur is just as bad, because West Van/Horseshoe Bay passengers are either waiting 5-10 minutes to get to Lonsdale (downtown-oriented), or the same to get to downtown (Lonsdale-oriented), so commutes are still long, and now TransLink is stuck with another unnecessary switch. A Park Royal extension removes that problem by replacing it with other problems: a more expensive tunnel across the widest part of the inlet, and a longer trip that definitely makes the SeaBus the better option.

Granted, a Phibbs extension doesn’t save three minutes on the First Narrows, but it does save ten minutes or more outright on the Second Narrows, and makes both passengers and operators’ lives simpler instead of equally complicated.