Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[dleung]

Originally Posted by lio45

Many of us would be fine with staying in Canada, if Canada doesn't prove too incompatible with us...

This whole thread:

"our people have more leverage than you think"
"not really"
"yes we do!"

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by vanatox

Maybe you should take a few minutes to think about what you write on this forum and your own opinions about francophones in your province and city and then think about everything you write about Quebec and the relationships between anglophones and francophones... might be a good idea!

You never did answer the question:

How would you feel if there was only one university in Montreal, and it was a unilingual anglophone university offering no courses in French, and, the university had the temerity to call itself the University of Montreal, completely ignoring the French majority in the city, and, implicitly laying sole claim to the city. Would you be offended???

Enquiring minds would like to know.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by lio45

Open borders would be a favor that Quebec would be doing to Canada (and we're saying it would almost certainly be granted, since everyone here is fine with it under any scenario) as there would be some Canada both east and west of it. Also, Quebec would control Ontario's access to the ocean, whether via Seaway ships or rail/truck traffic for goods loaded/unloaded in Halifax.

Canada would also control Quebec's access to the ocean (via narrow straits between NL/Lab and NL/NS). The scenario where Quebec separates, the rest of Canada remains a country, and Quebec blocks shipping to Ontario while Canada allows ocean shipping to Quebec is not very plausible.

In practice I think Ontario and Atlantic Canada would become very integrated with the US over time (Ontario industry is already mostly integrated with the US) while that may be less possible in a newly sovereign Quebec for political reasons. FWIW I think Quebec politics would go one of two ways, and one way resembles Latin America (populist politics animated by vague cultural arguments, anti-Americanism, etc.) while the other where they play along with the USA wouldn't allow for a lot of autonomy.

There was a comment about Canadian provinces being top trading partners with each other. The data I've seen suggests that this isn't true. The US is #1 in most provinces (such as Ontario), above any other singular province. If we're looking at a snapshot of the last year's trade at the moment Quebec becomes a new country, then the USA would be Canada's #1 trading partner while Quebec might not even make #2 for Canada. And I guess Canada would remain in the USMCA while Quebec would be in a UK type of situation.

[harls]

Originally Posted by dleung

This whole thread:

"our people have more leverage than you think"
"not really"
"yes we do!"

No, this whole thread is -

lio45 - hey
Acajack - thread increase
New Brisavoine - posts

..and so on.

[someone123]

You could argue Mount Allison should count as an English university for Moncton. About 30 mins out of town; a quicker commute than a lot of students have on transit in larger cities.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by someone123

You could argue Mount Allison should count as an English university for Moncton. About 30 mins out of town; a quicker commute than a lot of students have on transit in larger cities.

Yup. I brought this up as well.

MonctonRad has also brought up that Mt Allison is still not a comprehensive university with all of the fancy prestige programs (whereas the U de Moncton is), but Saint John doesn't have that either and I'd wager that the anglophone population of Saint John is probably larger than Moncton's.

It's not the fault of Acadiens if the NB government chose to concentrate the most anglophone university programs in the provincial capital.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by someone123

Canada would also control Quebec's access to the ocean (via narrow straits between NL/Lab and NL/NS). The scenario where Quebec separates, the rest of Canada remains a country, and Quebec blocks shipping to Ontario while Canada allows ocean shipping to Quebec is not very plausible.
.

I don't think that there is much leverage on the ocean-going transportation front. It's already been mentioned as well that the St Lawrence seaway leads to US ports so it would be difficult to use that to bargain as the Americans wouldn't stand for any disruption.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by someone123

In practice I think Ontario and Atlantic Canada would become very integrated with the US over time (Ontario industry is already mostly integrated with the US) while that may be less possible in a newly sovereign Quebec for political reasons. FWIW I think Quebec politics would go one of two ways, and one way resembles Latin America (populist politics animated by vague cultural arguments, anti-Americanism, etc.) while the other where they play along with the USA wouldn't allow for a lot of autonomy.

I think Quebec sovereignty would elevate the profile of Atlantic Canada in the rest of the country. For one, Atlantic Canada's percentage of the population would increase to 8% from 6%. And I think there would be widespread recognition that Atlantic Canada was the region that was the most screwed over by a decision in which they had no input.

I think there would be broad support to upgrade US-2 and ME-9 through northern New England to allow for a transit from NB to Cornwall, and the Americans would not turn down free infrastructure.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

I think Quebec sovereignty would elevate the profile of Atlantic Canada in the rest of the country. For one, Atlantic Canada's percentage of the population would increase to 8% from 6%. And I think there would be widespread recognition that Atlantic Canada was the region that was the most screwed over by a decision in which they had no input.

I think there would be broad support to upgrade US-2 and ME-9 through northern New England to allow for a transit from NB to Cornwall, and the Americans would not turn down free infrastructure.

FYI it's costing about a billion dollars to upgrade the QC-185 into A-85 for the TCH between Rivière-du-Loup and Edmundston over just under 100 km.

Cornwall to NB through northern New England is 700-750 km, so probably 8-10 billion dollars of infrastructure investment... on the territory of another country.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by someone123

You could argue Mount Allison should count as an English university for Moncton. About 30 mins out of town; a quicker commute than a lot of students have on transit in larger cities.

It would be fine if Codiac Transpo actually served Sackville (it doesn't).

Mount Allison is only a 30 minute drive from Moncton, but, driving conditions in the winter are sometimes terrible and frequently unreliable. The commute is also on a high speed expressway, not city streets. It's most definitely not like grabbing a cross town bus (or subway) in Toronto to go to university.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by someone123

There was a comment about Canadian provinces being top trading partners with each other. The data I've seen suggests that this isn't true. The US is #1 in most provinces (such as Ontario), above any other singular province. If we're looking at a snapshot of the last year's trade at the moment Quebec becomes a new country, then the USA would be Canada's #1 trading partner while Quebec might not even make #2 for Canada. And I guess Canada would remain in the USMCA while Quebec would be in a UK type of situation.

I think the Quebecers on this thread are really overestimating their province's economic potential in the event of separation.

A lot of Quebec's economy comes from providing services to the ROC. Big names like Alimentations Couche Tard, Metro, Saputo, Power Corp etc. probably derive the majority of their business within Canada but outside Quebec. One of the reasons why Quebec has such low unemployment is because they're providing services to English Canada, which has high immigration and population growth, without growing much themselves.

Then there's the fact that Quebec doesn't really export any resources that can't be found elsewhere. There's no potash or cobalt or palladium, or even oil and gas.

Also, I don't see any reason for the US to play nice with Quebec on USMCA. I don't think they'd appreciate the loss of stability on their doorstep, and when it comes to supporting the ROC vs. Quebec's negotiators, I'm pretty sure they'll side with the ROC.

And, finally, there's the issue of currency. Do they want to keep using a CAD where they don't control the central bank, and whose value reflects the economic status of the ROC?

In a nutshell, I see Quebec having the trade bloc leverage of Britain post-Brexit and having the export competitiveness of one of the Eurozone PIGS.

[vanatox]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

You never did answer the question:

How would you feel if there was only one university in Montreal, and it was a unilingual anglophone university offering no courses in French, and, the university had the temerity to call itself the University of Montreal, completely ignoring the French majority in the city, and, implicitly laying sole claim to the city. Would you be offended???

Enquiring minds would like to know.

I did not respond because i did no see the point. This is an hypothetical situation and i live in Gatineau, not Montréal. You also can't transpose Moncton situation to a city of 4.5 million people.

And anyway, there are already way more visible anglo institution supported by all quebec tax payers in Montréal. As if having a francophone university in Moncton named after the city is really unfair, appropriative and give a false opinion of the city.. lol

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Acajack

FYI it's costing about a billion dollars to upgrade the QC-185 into A-85 for the TCH between Rivière-du-Loup and Edmundston over just under 100 km.

Cornwall to NB through northern New England is 700-750 km, so probably 8-10 billion dollars of infrastructure investment... on the territory of another country.

Actually, most Maritime traffic to Ontario isn't heading to Cornwall or Ottawa, it's heading to the GTHA. As such, there is already a freeway connection (I-95 -> Mass Turnpike -> New York Thruway.

Easy peasy.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by someone123

Canada would also control Quebec's access to the ocean (via narrow straits between NL/Lab and NL/NS). The scenario where Quebec separates, the rest of Canada remains a country, and Quebec blocks shipping to Ontario while Canada allows ocean shipping to Quebec is not very plausible.

In practice I think Ontario and Atlantic Canada would become very integrated with the US over time (Ontario industry is already mostly integrated with the US) while that may be less possible in a newly sovereign Quebec for political reasons. FWIW I think Quebec politics would go one of two ways, and one way resembles Latin America (populist politics animated by vague cultural arguments, anti-Americanism, etc.) while the other where they play along with the USA wouldn't allow for a lot of autonomy.

There was a comment about Canadian provinces being top trading partners with each other. The data I've seen suggests that this isn't true. The US is #1 in most provinces (such as Ontario), above any other singular province. If we're looking at a snapshot of the last year's trade at the moment Quebec becomes a new country, then the USA would be Canada's #1 trading partner while Quebec might not even make #2 for Canada. And I guess Canada would remain in the USMCA while Quebec would be in a UK type of situation.

According to figures I have found, Quebec trades about as much with the US as it does with Ontario: about 100 billion dollars in each case.

Quebec has a 35 billion dollar trade surplus with the US, but a 700 million dollar trade deficit with Ontario.

Nothing prevents the US and an independent Quebec from entering a bilateral free trade agreement even if Quebec is no longer part of Canada.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I don't think that there is much leverage on the ocean-going transportation front. It's already been mentioned as well that the St Lawrence seaway leads to US ports so it would be difficult to use that to bargain as the Americans wouldn't stand for any disruption.

Blockades can be selective.

Dammit. I'm getting sucked back into this thread. I can feel my blood pressure increasing. There's that throbbing headache and a whooshing sensation in my ears..................

[harls]

Acajack green dot.. increases.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Blockades can be selective.

I know but since there is potential tit-for-tat from both sides it's unlikely we'd see much of that. Especially since international trade relationships and reputations would be in play as well.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Actually, most Maritime traffic to Ontario isn't heading to Cornwall or Ottawa, it's heading to the GTHA. As such, there is already a freeway connection (I-95 -> Mass Turnpike -> New York Thruway.

Easy peasy.

You're right of course. Though I am not the one who brought up the need for a link between Cornwall ON and NB.

(Western Canada to Atlantic Canada transportation would be more complex though, if traffic couldn't go through Quebec.)

[someone123]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

I think there would be broad support to upgrade US-2 and ME-9 through northern New England to allow for a transit from NB to Cornwall, and the Americans would not turn down free infrastructure.

The instability of Quebec leaving would be a big problem but the "Atlantic" geographical view is quite different from how Canadians usually think about it and the status quo is poor for Atlantic Canada so some other configurations are better.

Most Canadians don't think much about Atlantic Canada and imagine the Maritimes as an appendage off of Quebec. But the Maritimes have their longest land border with ME, not QC, and area really east of ME. The I-95 corridor down to Boston is the natural main route (similar to I-5 here) while the Trans-Canada route is not one that you'd expect would carry much trade if you looked at a map without national borders.

Ocean shipping and international trade beyond the USA are also comparatively important in Atlantic Canada (almost everything in NL comes off of a boat or goes onto a boat for example, and there are good ports everywhere in the region).

In the event of Quebec separation I think the Maritimes would be really open to doing whatever they could to improve trade and connectivity with the USA. And if we're just looking at the economics, improved connections could easily end up a net win even if the land route through Quebec is completely closed off. For example, I think if it were just up to the Maritimes they'd probably do whatever the US wants in order to allow passport-free cross-border travel.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

It would be fine if Codiac Transpo actually served Sackville (it doesn't).

A good example of how there's potential demand along many smaller parts of that corridor that can't really take advantage of either the VIA service or intercity bus service.

Right now you can take VIA from Moncton to Sackville but it costs $23, takes 45 mins instead of 30 mins driving, and it has to be around 1 pm on certain days of the week.