Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

In my experience the only people who claim Scarborough and Mississauga are the same are the people from Mississauga. LOL. And occasionally the old downtowner who looks down on Scarberians (memories of Jack Layton fighting against the first Downtown Relief Line).



Going to guess somebody told her that Leduc was the Mississauga of Edmonton. And then are discovered it was more like the Milton of Edmonton.....

Either way the digs against Edmonton are uncalled for.

I used to love poking fun at people at house parties in Calgary that claimed "Calgary 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵, I miss Toronto". So I would dig deeper and it usually turned out they were from Mississauga or Brampton or even further out. And I'd say "So what exactly do you miss about Toronto? How often do you actually go into "the city"?" And it would be like a half dozen times a year to sports games or an occasional club
They weren't used to anyone questioning them like that.

Then when gripes of cuisine would come up I'd be like "you're telling me you can't find proper Chinese or South Asian food in Calgary? A city well over a million people and growing by 20-30k/yr. Have you actually looked? because there's well over 100 plus options for both plus countless Vietnamese, Thai options, even Nepali, and plenty of places to get sushi or even places with proper Japanese noodles"

People don't like being "fact checked" or called out on BS. I'm a nerdy jerk

Edmonton, Saskatoon, even Winnipeg, are the most underrated cities in Canada in my humble opinion.

[Truenorth00]

To be fair, food is something Toronto does well. Quality, selection and price. And that combination is pretty much unmatched in the country. You'll get two of three elsewhere. Doesn't even have to be ethnic foods. Think of something really simple like Johnny's Hamburgers. I'd struggle to come up with a similar value in many cities.

And I do agree that lots of people who "miss" Toronto tend to be suburbanites who loved the idea of Toronto, and their family and friends. There don't actually miss the city itself in all its gritty glory. Lady in the article is probably like that.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

To be fair, food is something Toronto does well. Quality, selection and price. And that combination is pretty much unmatched in the country. You'll get two of three elsewhere. Doesn't even have to be ethnic foods. Think of something really simple like Johnny's Hamburgers. I'd struggle to come up with a similar value in many cities.

And I do agree that lots of people who "miss" Toronto tend to be suburbanites who loved the idea of Toronto, and their family and friends. There don't actually miss the city itself in all its gritty glory. Lady in the article is probably like that.

I'm aware you can't get Toronto's food diversity but there's plenty of good ethnic food in Calgary. I even found really good Jamaican beef patties in the NE.

A friend network is everything.
I think overall these folks disliked Calgary moreso because they didn't have a fun group of friends to go out with moreso than anything else. I had friends from all sorts of ethnic backgrounds and there was always something going on. I also played coed sports so our friend group expanded that way too, friends of friends joined up.
Also part of the appeal is the Rockies, so to me it's weird when people who aren't outdoorsy move there. I went to the Rockies all the time.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I would caution against this view being universal. I have a ton of family in Mumbai. When they visit my family in Scarborough? They complain that it's boring and that they have to ride transit for sooooo long to get to stuff. By contrast the cities they love are New York, London, Istanbul, etc. I get the whole "shiny new" syndrome that pervades a lot of the developing world. But a lot of that is also because their experiences with cities is usually not very pleasant. If you are middle class from a major city in Asia or Latin America, good chance you might actually appreciate and prefer a proper shopping street to a mall.

Oh sure, but how would these people live if they lived here?

I would not really recommend Canada for ‘city things’ to someone coming from Mumbai for a visit. It’s like recommending only to visit Phoenix when going to the Southwestern United States. Or Auckland when visiting New Zealand.

[theman23]

A lot has changed recently. 10 years ago you, which is probably when you were last going to house parties in Calgary and hearing those comments, you could not find good middle eastern street food in Calgary. There were a lot of options, but they were all complete dog 🞵🞵🞵🞵. I'm guessing the influx of Syrian refugees has changed things, because there are quite a few now that are pretty decent and prices have actually not gone up that much. For some reason this hasn't trickled over to BC yet.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by theman23

A lot has changed recently. 10 years ago you, which is probably when you were last going to house parties in Calgary and hearing those comments, you could not find good middle eastern street food in Calgary. There were a lot of options, but they were all complete dog 🞵🞵🞵🞵. I'm guessing the influx of Syrian refugees has changed things, because there are quite a few now that are pretty decent and prices have actually not gone up that much. For some reason this hasn't trickled over to BC yet.

I wouldn't say dog 🞵🞵🞵🞵 lol but yeah even St. Catharines has benefited from Syrian immigrants.
Hell, even tiny Port Colborne now has Jamaican and Thai food.

2022, the culinary landscape is much changed in all parts of Canada.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Wigs

I'm aware you can't get Toronto's food diversity but there's plenty of good ethnic food in Calgary. I even found really good Jamaican beef patties in the NE.

Like I said quality, selection and price. You get two of three in a lot of places. In Toronto (and to a lesser extent in Montreal and Vancouver) you'll get all three.

I'm going to guess that good Jamaican beef patty in NE Calgary is probably like $5 per patty while you can get a dozen for $15 at Fahmee. That kind of value is what I find missing, even if selection has improved substantially elsewhere. Heck, these days grocery stores in small towns sell frozen butter chicken entrees and enchiladas.

Almost every 30+ immigrant who grew up here has some negative story about taking ethnic foods to school. But these days, you have white kids coming to school with homemade hummus. LOL. Twenty years of Food TV and immigration has changed our palates substantially.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Like I said quality, selection and price. You get two of three in a lot of places. In Toronto (and to a lesser extent in Montreal and Vancouver) you'll get all three.

I'm going to guess that good Jamaican beef patty in NE Calgary is probably like $5 per patty while you can get a dozen for $15 at Fahmee. That kind of value is what I find missing, even if selection has improved substantially elsewhere. Heck, these days grocery stores in small towns sell frozen butter chicken entrees and enchiladas.

Almost every 30+ immigrant who grew up here has some negative story about taking ethnic foods to school. But these days, you have white kids coming to school with homemade hummus. LOL. Twenty years of Food TV and immigration has changed our palates substantially.

I forget the price. Think around $3.50-4/patty maybe. But when you basically own the market you can charge higher.

I've never found a city that offered delicious banh mi for $4 like I did in Calgary. The going rate at the time for most places was $7.95-9.95. I would order a couple and eat one the next day.

Yeah Food Network, endless food "🞵🞵🞵🞵" on social media and people trying to be good cooks at home has really upped North America's food game.
We're certainly blessed with more food diversity in Canada than most other countries founded by white Europeans

[niwell]

When I lived at broadview and Gerrard in east Chinatown I used to live off $3 banh mi and ultra cheap Chinese buns. It was quite unhealthy but delicious.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by niwell

When I lived at broadview and Gerrard in east Chinatown I used to live off $3 banh mi and ultra cheap Chinese buns. It was quite unhealthy but delicious.

Sounds awesome!

Hey this banh mi was healthy...ish. I'd avoid the deli meat option and go for chicken or beef satay. Besides the pâté spread and meat there was pickled carrots and cucumbers, onions and those devilish little red hot peppers that made you go "Holy faaaaaaawk" when caught off guard. All on a delicious fresh demi baguette

[urbandreamer]

There was an arts festival happening in downtown Leduc when I visited, 16th July. I found the idea of this social club amusing:
https://imgur.com/a/MoCJlwc
Downtown Leduc reminded me of Alliston or maybe Bolton.

I found the Hwy 2 entrance into Edmonton depressing: the ugliest kind of rundown C city Ontario type of sprawl (Cambridge, West London, Essa-Barrie, Courtice) with a small airport and then suddenly you're in Strathcona which looks a bit like downtown London, then there's the underwhelming skyline across the river into Winnipeg 2.0.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Disagree. The local culture and zeitgeist maybe a little different. The basic lifestyle? Very much the same. All places where you're far from the core of the metro and live a highly auto dependent lifestyle punctuated by trips to Costco and Smart Centres. If this is controversial, just look at politics, where urban centres across the country vote the same way, as do suburbs and exurbs. These are all groups of people that perceive their interests the same way, separated by huge distances. That's highly unlikely to happen randomly.

I do know what you're getting at - there's a certain anodyne genericness about suburbs coast to coast - but as suburbs urbanize and inner cities gentrify & become unaffordable, these sorts of generalizations will increasingly fall apart. Especially in newer cities like Calgary where the urban core is fairly small, or Vancouver where the line between city and suburb is very blurrly

In the GTA's case, I think as GO RER comes on line that places like Mississauga and Brampton will also increasingly be brought into the "real Toronto" fold.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by yaletown_fella

If the BOC is so dead set on maintaining 2% inflation , then why can't the target for next year be negative 4.9% to make up for the 6.9% inflation and destruction of our savings and purchasing power we had to put up with this year ?

G-d forbid, we actually change the target to 0%. How horrifying. But that will never happen because the BOC is beholden to government debt/spending and the real estate lobby. It's not a truly independent entity like people love to claim. It's also why we will never see real positive rates.

Deflation is bad. However, reducing inflation to 2% is the goal. Imagine telling a business that they will loose 4.9% profit/revenue next year. Most companies would lose their minds.

[yaletown_fella]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Deflation is bad. However, reducing inflation to 2% is the goal. Imagine telling a business that they will loose 4.9% profit/revenue next year. Most companies would lose their minds.

2% inflation is the goal if you want your savings to erode by 10-20% every decade (based on the average of .5% from a savings account over the past decade since the era of QE infinity started in 2008)

Why not 0% ?

The idea of deflation being bad is a myth perpetrated by Keynesian economists , an ideology which was promoted and became mainstrea, to enable higher government fiscal spending/budget deficits. Deflation is only bad for big ticket asset holders, credit card addicts, hedge fund managers and government. So it's natural an economist who's spent their entire existance in academia and the Office of the Chief Economist to want to promote inflation . Deflation is good for the working lower middle class and middle class who live below their means and save.


I bet you in 10 years, the goalposts will shift yet again and most talking heads and forumers will be claiming that "2% inflation is almost as bad as deflation" , and you need between 5-6% annual inflation to ensure a smoking hot economy with great growth. That will be the new narrative.

In reality, real businesses with earnings would not lose their mind (unless their business model is a high flying momentum tech stock like many rideshare companies with no real earnings , they rely on cheap money just to stay afloat) In a deflationary environment, a real businesses expenses and rent would decrease so they could afford to pass along savings to the consumer.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by yaletown_fella

2% inflation is the goal if you want your savings to erode by 10-20% every decade (based on the average of .5% from a savings account over the past decade since the era of QE infinity started in 2008)

Why not 0% ?

The idea of deflation being bad is a myth perpetrated by Keynesian economists , an ideology which was promoted and became mainstrea, to enable higher government fiscal spending/budget deficits. Deflation is only bad for big ticket asset holders, credit card addicts, hedge fund managers and government. So it's natural an economist who's spent their entire existance in academia and the Office of the Chief Economist to want to promote inflation . Deflation is good for the working lower middle class and middle class who live below their means and save.


I bet you in 10 years, the goalposts will shift yet again and most talking heads and forumers will be claiming that "2% inflation is almost as bad as deflation" , and you need between 5-6% annual inflation to ensure a smoking hot economy with great growth. That will be the new narrative.

In reality, real businesses with earnings would not lose their mind (unless their business model is a high flying momentum tech stock like many rideshare companies with no real earnings , they rely on cheap money just to stay afloat) In a deflationary environment, a real businesses expenses and rent would decrease so they could afford to pass along savings to the consumer.

You are wrong, but, you are not wrong.

You are wrong because the economy is set up for only inflation.
You are not wrong because the way the economy is set up is not good.

[yaletown_fella]

Thats correct , partly due to policy and the metrics being used. Central banks will prioritze keeping headline unemployment low. All this Loose monetary and fiscal policy has resulted in is a bunch of low pay service sector and gig economy jobs replacing private sector industry.

If we ignore the type of jobs that have been created (service sector part time) we will likely fall for the illusion that things have never been better and young people don't want to work.

Most so-called economic growth and the bull market in equities post 2008 is only nominal growth from all the fiscal monetary heroin. This is especially evident in the tech sector and companies like Uber that are still losing money, but ultimately subsidized by the taxpayer.

Most of the pre 2018-2021 era inflation showed up in equities instead of consumer staples, largely because cheap imports from Asia (countries that artificially kept their own currency low) , offshoring , and taxpayer subsidized gig schemes like Uber were largely able to offset consumer inflation.

Even then, the inflation from 2008-2018 was largely hidden by CPI hedonic adjustment and nonsense like owners equivalent rent for calculating rent prices!

Inflation actually averaged around 3-4.5% per year pre 2021 if you use the older CPI standards. Around double what we were being led to believe.

Another problem is economists focusing on consumer spending (of mostly foreign growth) as a marker of growth instead of domestic production. They also tend to ignore household savings rate. These savings are reinvested into the market and create new companies. In contrast, a QE Infinity society results in more malinvestment (nonsense tech companies that don't turn profits or pay dividends) and more inequality.

https://nationalpost.com/full-comment/phil-green-hiding-inflation-in-broad-daylight

[yaletown_fella]

Wealthy SFH homeowners at rallies such as "repeal bill 23" really make my blood boil. They are getting an incredible deal as far as tax treatment and property taxes goes.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by yaletown_fella

Wealthy SFH homeowners at rallies such as "repeal bill 23" really make my blood boil. They are getting an incredible deal as far as tax treatment and property taxes goes.

I am not wealthy. Why should we build on farmlands?

[goodgrowth]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

I am not wealthy. Why should we build on farmlands?

"Why should we build on x ?" is the basically the motto of the housing crises perpetuators and just gives further ammo to any NIMBY.

The housing issue won't be solved until the "sprawl" discentive mechanism is based on an objective metric(non-regressive property tax/LVT) and not reverting picking winners and losers of "acceptable land use/developments".

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal

Most 🞵🞵🞵 in the City gals in Montreal don't live downtown. In 2021 there were about 718,832 people living in the urban fringe (less than 10 minutes from downtown) in Montreal. That is 70% more than in Toronto (440,411), and about 120% more than in Vancouver (330,368).

Calgary and Edmonton are in the 250-270k range.

Even in the Near suburb (10 to 20 min from downtown) category, Montreal (1,396,056) is ahead of Toronto (1,349,839) by a small margin still. Both cities are in a league of their own, as the next city is Edmonton with 780,955.

The only category where Toronto outgrew Montreal in absolute growth is in the downtown core, and in the distant suburb (30min or more from downtown).

Both Toronto and Vancouver saw their distant suburb population grow the most, about 200k in Toronto and 100k in Vancouver.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220209/t005b-eng.htm

Toronto seems to only grow in the extremes, in its downtown and in the distant suburbs, that's weird, and it's textbook sprawl. What I find astonishing is that Toronto is losing the race against Montreal and Vancouver in the 2 most important categories, the urban fringe and the near suburb. This is where all the heavy transit network will take place, like the Metro and the REM in Montreal. You want to densify the urban core. It's like Toronto didn't saw any growth at all. You want to densify from the inside out,Montreal and Vancouver did that. The 3 cities saw a increase in the intermediate and distant suburb category, but Montreal being the city with the lowest absolute growth.

If Vancouver wants to have a more affordable real estate market, it should increase dramatically its urban core population. Toronto is sprawling and doing the same mistake as Vancouver. Zoning laws must change in those 2 cities.

This was an interesting post that I don't believe anyone responded to.

The reason for the growth in the "inner ring" of Montreal is probably because it's mostly made up of a huge amount of "plex" type of housing that is highly valued in the 2020s by urbanite types.

Due a different era when the city had a big development boom, much of the "inner ring" of Toronto has towers in the park style housing that was built in the 60s and 70s, and this isn't as highly valued or sought after these days.