Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

In the end, I think that somebody who grows up and lives in Brampton or Markham has more in common with somebody from downtown Toronto than somebody in Conception Bay South or Repentigny or even Sherwood Park, AB.

Disagree. The local culture and zeitgeist maybe a little different. The basic lifestyle? Very much the same. All places where you're far from the core of the metro and live a highly auto dependent lifestyle punctuated by trips to Costco and Smart Centres. If this is controversial, just look at politics, where urban centres across the country vote the same way, as do suburbs and exurbs. These are all groups of people that perceive their interests the same way, separated by huge distances. That's highly unlikely to happen randomly.

[SignalHillHiker]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Disagree. The local culture and zeitgeist maybe a little different. The basic lifestyle? Very much the same. All places where you're far from the core of the metro and live a highly auto dependent lifestyle punctuated by trips to Costco and Smart Centres. If this is controversial, just look at politics, where urban centres across the country vote the same way, as do suburbs and exurbs. These are all groups of people that perceive their interests the same way, separated by huge distances. That's highly unlikely to happen randomly.

I'm in-between you two. I definitely do believe suburbia makes it much harder to have a unique lifestyle, be self-fulfilled, raise interesting kids, etc. You're pretty much confined to a (to me, soul-sucking) existence of driving from work to home to extracurricular activities. Anything more than that requires some significant planning, compared to just throwing open the front door and having a city at your doorstep.

Your kid is functionally a child until they can get their own driving license, and that certainly stunts them compared to urban kids who are on the go as young as their parents allow. There are kids I doubt are even in school who walk a few blocks in my neighbourhood to the park behind my house alone. They see all the same crackhouses and all that I do. But it's socialization. Raising kids in suburbia is the social development equivalent, to me, of sanitizing everything they come handy to, and ending up with a child who is always sick because they've built up no exposure or immunity.

But there is a difference between being 30 minutes from Toronto and 30 minutes from St. John's. A kid in Mississauga is going to be immeasurably more worldly to start, more consciously anti-racist (or racist, I guess, could go either way but they're not going to be as inexperienced as kids here), on and on.

I just think living and/or growing up in urban or rural areas is better for all involved, and suburbia stunts too much experience and enjoyment to be worth it.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Sooooo what's your pick for best patty? Or your dad's?

I say this because literally everybody growing up in Toronto has at some point commuted with nothing but $1-2 in their pocket and a TTC token or pass. It's one of those unique experiences that separate the urban from the suburban.

I'm not sure I follow your metric? I can only justify knowledge of Toronto by some metric you made up? My Pops would say "some internet guy from Scarborough is questioning my Torontonian-ness?"

My Dad was born at St. Joseph's hospital. He grew up on Strathmore Blvd as did his 8 siblings. He rode the red rocket all the time, and subway almost everyday while attending U of T.
His childhood friend was kind of a mad scientist lunatic (would make — powder in his basement) that put a blasting cap on the streetcar line and it scorched the side of a red rocket. What was juvenile delinquency in the 1960s would now be more like an act of terrorism
He literally remembers the basements of houses shaking when they were building the Danforth line. They had to have city engineers inspect to make sure there was no damage done to houses in his neighbourhood.

My Dad (now a Septuagenarian) is so far removed from Toronto. He graduated from Monarch Park secondary and then attended U of T for engineering. He left immediately after graduating from U of T for a job in Niagara and would only come home occasionally. Moreso before he met my Mom, a native of Niagara.

My grandfather had a printing business on Danforth, walking distance from the modest semi-detached homestead. He worked for the owner then took it over himself. All my Uncles did random jobs for the business. My Uncle (eldest of 9) bought it and merged it with his startup marketing firm, which is now in Scarborough.
You know the cardboard displays you see in places like Shoppers DrugMart? They make those kind of things for large Canadian corporations, in addition to a whole host of services including website design.

My grandparents (now deceased) retired to Musselman's Lake near Stouffville. Even retired they got the Toronto Star everyday and inner city Toronto was always a topic of conversation. My aunt's husband, my Uncle Ron was a TTC driver. He loved the streetcar the best. He never got a chance to drive the new Bombardier variant.

My Dad is a fervent Jays fan and always took me and my bro to Blue Jays games at both Exhibition stadium and Skydome (even roadtrips to see them in Cleveland), or the zoo, Science center etc.
I only remember the family semi-detached home near Coxwell station because my Uncle bought it, then too he moved his family way out to... Georgina lol where my Dad's older brother had already settled his family.
Only one of my Dad's siblings/ brothers remained inner city. Bought a small house decades ago not far north from where he grew up near Coxwell.

When my Dad has come back for family weddings he can't believe the city he grew up in is so massive with all the high-rises flanking the Gardiner.

My Dad spent 13 years working in the US and only returned back to Canada in July 2020.
If it wasn't for covid and my Dad being particularly cautious I would have taken him to visit the old neighbourhood and his old haunts by now.

The Toronto I know is mainly as an adult doing those multi kilometre walkabouts. I'm certainly not an expert on Toronto but I have explored many neighbourhoods. I'm not going to claim I have a — in the City life in depth knowledge of the city

[yaletown_fella]

Rent prices in Toronto have increased 8.5% since last year.

In addition to the supply/red tape/development charge problems we've discussed at length, I would place a lot of the blame on overleveraged mortgagers passing along the sins of their bloated mortgages to renters.

I'm not a fan of government intervention but if the government were ever able to intervene and make a positive difference, it would be to double or triple the mandatory minimum down payment %. This would do a beautiful job of helping to destroy demand and — the bubble.

If down payment requirements were exponentially higher, then renters wouldnt be getting punished with such extreme rent inflation because the carrying costs wouldnt be as high (which are inevtiably passed from the homeowner to renter in the form of our current extortionately high rents)

It's pure extortion for a 1 bedroom basement apartment in Toronto to be going for $2000 a month. Financially responsible renters who've never missed payments, shouldnt have to be liable for the sins of the greedy amateur small-time investor/homeowner.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Wigs

I'm not sure I follow your metric? I can only justify knowledge of Toronto by some metric you made up? My Pops would say "some internet guy from Scarborough is questioning my Torontonian-ness?"

My Dad was born at St. Joseph's hospital. He grew up on Strathmore Blvd as did his 8 siblings. He rode the red rocket all the time, and subway almost everyday while attending U of T.
His childhood friend was kind of a mad scientist lunatic (would make — powder in his basement) that put a blasting cap on the streetcar line and it scorched the side of a red rocket. What was juvenile delinquency in the 1960s would now be more like an act of terrorism
He literally remembers the basements of houses shaking when they were building the Danforth line. They had to have city engineers inspect to make sure there was no damage done to houses in his neighbourhood.

My Dad (now a Septuagenarian) is so far removed from Toronto. He graduated from Monarch Park secondary and then attended U of T for engineering. He left immediately after graduating from U of T for a job in Niagara and would only come home occasionally. Moreso before he met my Mom, a native of Niagara.

My grandfather had a printing business on Danforth, walking distance from the modest semi-detached homestead. He worked for the owner then took it over himself. All my Uncles did random jobs for the business. My Uncle (eldest of 9) bought it and merged it with his startup marketing firm, which is now in Scarborough.
You know the cardboard displays you see in places like Shoppers DrugMart? They make those kind of things for large Canadian corporations, in addition to a whole host of services including website design.

My grandparents (now deceased) retired to Musselman's Lake near Stouffville. Even retired they got the Toronto Star everyday and inner city Toronto was always a topic of conversation. My aunt's husband, my Uncle Ron was a TTC driver. He loved the streetcar the best. He never got a chance to drive the new Bombardier variant.

My Dad is a fervent Jays fan and always took me and my bro to Blue Jays games at both Exhibition stadium and Skydome (even roadtrips to see them in Cleveland), or the zoo, Science center etc.
I only remember the family semi-detached home near Coxwell station because my Uncle bought it, then too he moved his family way out to... Georgina lol where my Dad's older brother had already settled his family.
Only one of my Dad's siblings/ brothers remained inner city. Bought a small house decades ago not far north from where he grew up near Coxwell.

When my Dad has come back for family weddings he can't believe the city he grew up in is so massive with all the high-rises flanking the Gardiner.

My Dad spent 13 years working in the US and only returned back to Canada in July 2020.
If it wasn't for covid and my Dad being particularly cautious I would have taken him to visit the old neighbourhood and his old haunts by now.

The Toronto I know is mainly as an adult doing those multi kilometre walkabouts. I'm certainly not an expert on Toronto but I have explored many neighbourhoods. I'm not going to claim I have a — in the City life in depth knowledge of the city

On that note, the other thing to consider is that the woman in the article may well have grown up in Etobicoke or Scarborough(or even real Toronto) and only moved out to Square One as an adult for economic reasons (rent is cheaper out there than downtown Toronto). In fact, I'd bet on that being the case. She's far more a real "Torontonian" than a guy who moved to Niagara or even say, Ottawa.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by yaletown_fella

Rent prices in Toronto have increased 8.5% since last year.

In addition to the supply/red tape/development charge problems we've discussed at length, I would place a lot of the blame on overleveraged mortgagers passing along the sins of their bloated mortgages to renters.

I'm not a fan of government intervention but if the government were ever able to intervene and make a positive difference, it would be to double or triple the mandatory minimum down payment %. This would do a beautiful job of helping to destroy demand and — the bubble.

It's pure extortion for a 1 bedroom basement apartment in Toronto to be going for $2000 a month. Financially responsible renters who've never missed payments, shouldnt have to be liable for the sins of the greedy amateur small-time investor/homeowner.

The problem is, that won't fix the existing problem as no one needs to requailify at that.

[yaletown_fella]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

The problem is, that won't fix the existing problem as no one needs to requailify at that.

I see what you mean, but this policy I suggested should help compliment the supply increase of new Greenbelt/Brownbelt development that the PC party (fingers crossed) pass in the 905. The problem is yuppie type families who used to buy in the 905 are competing with everyone else and buying up homes in Toronto proper. Then they are passing their low D/P / bloated mortgage costs along to the working person/family who's renting the basement etc.

People are programmed to think that suburban development is inherently anti urban, when in reality more suburban SFH supply will ease prices/greenbelts' artificial scarcity effect on condos and urban dwellings/new development. Abolishing the CMHC taxpayer underwritting of mortgages is another critical move , if the government wants to move beyond virtue signalling over the affordability crisis and take real action.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by yaletown_fella

I see what you mean, but this policy I suggested should help compliment the supply increase of new Greenbelt/Brownbelt development that the PC party (fingers crossed) pass in the 905. The problem is yuppie type families who used to buy in the 905 are competing with everyone else and buying up homes in Toronto proper. Then they are passing their low D/P / bloated mortgage costs along to the working person/family who's renting the basement etc.

People are programmed to think that suburban development is inherently anti urban, when in reality more suburban SFH supply will ease prices/greenbelts' artificial scarcity effect on condos and urban dwellings/new development. Abolishing the CMHC taxpayer underwritting of mortgages is another critical move , if the government wants to move beyond virtue signalling over the affordability crisis and take real action.

What you would be doing is forcing people into those high rent places because they cannot qualify for a mortgage.

[yaletown_fella]

Rents would ease along with prices as demand for mortgages is squashed.

Millions would be living with their parents as opposed to over-leveraging themselves.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by yaletown_fella

Rents would ease along with prices as demand for mortgages is squashed.

Millions would be living with their parents as opposed to over-leveraging themselves.

Cool... so How can I live with my parents in Ontario when I joined the navy that was based out of Halifax and Victoria?

[yaletown_fella]

It's obviously not applicable to everyones situation, but as a renter you will benefit from overall cooling demand.

[Wigs]

Truenorth, my Dad fails your "patty test" because the wave of Jamaican/Caribbean immigration to Canada/Toronto/GTA didn't get going until my Dad had already left unfortunately.

People can say he's not Torontonian anymore, but try telling a native Manhattanite that moved away after university he's no longer a New Yorker

You'll get a "Fawk owf"

[rousseau]

Originally Posted by theman23

On that note, the other thing to consider is that the woman in the article may well have grown up in Etobicoke or Scarborough(or even real Toronto) and only moved out to Square One as an adult for economic reasons (rent is cheaper out there than downtown Toronto).

Wait a minute: a black person in the GTA is far more likely to have grown up outside of the city of Toronto than in it.

[yaletown_fella]

If the BOC is so dead set on maintaining 2% inflation , then why can't the target for next year be negative 4.9% to make up for the 6.9% inflation and destruction of our savings and purchasing power we had to put up with this year ?

G-d forbid, we actually change the target to 0%. How horrifying. But that will never happen because the BOC is beholden to government debt/spending and the real estate lobby. It's not a truly independent entity like people love to claim. It's also why we will never see real positive rates.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

Downtown Leduc is more like Port Credit. But she probably bought a — new grey and beige shack above a garage on the SE side of town. Overall, Mississauga reminds me more of Calgary than Edmonton. Airdrie would've been a better fit.

She'll end up in Cambridge or Brantford, married to a blue collar dude lol.

Ouch. Harsh, dude.

[yaletown_fella]

Blue-grey stucco with dark grey window trim, picture windows, and cheap laminate 'wood' garages is one of the worst recent "looks"

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Disagree. The local culture and zeitgeist maybe a little different. The basic lifestyle? Very much the same. All places where you're far from the core of the metro and live a highly auto dependent lifestyle punctuated by trips to Costco and Smart Centres. If this is controversial, just look at politics, where urban centres across the country vote the same way, as do suburbs and exurbs. These are all groups of people that perceive their interests the same way, separated by huge distances. That's highly unlikely to happen randomly.

I'd love to live in the inner city but simply can't afford to. Even less so now with 2 kids. My riding consistently votes conservative but I certainly don't. There are trends, but to tar everyone living in a suburb the same way is kind of offensive. Sharing a neighbourhood does not make me the same as, say, some redneck with a $60k lifted pickup truck whose hobbies include quadding and drinking liberal tears with their Tim Horton's double double.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

I'm in-between you two. I definitely do believe suburbia makes it much harder to have a unique lifestyle, be self-fulfilled, raise interesting kids, etc. You're pretty much confined to a (to me, soul-sucking) existence of driving from work to home to extracurricular activities. Anything more than that requires some significant planning, compared to just throwing open the front door and having a city at your doorstep.

Your kid is functionally a child until they can get their own driving license, and that certainly stunts them compared to urban kids who are on the go as young as their parents allow. There are kids I doubt are even in school who walk a few blocks in my neighbourhood to the park behind my house alone. They see all the same crackhouses and all that I do. But it's socialization. Raising kids in suburbia is the social development equivalent, to me, of sanitizing everything they come handy to, and ending up with a child who is always sick because they've built up no exposure or immunity.

But there is a difference between being 30 minutes from Toronto and 30 minutes from St. John's. A kid in Mississauga is going to be immeasurably more worldly to start, more consciously anti-racist (or racist, I guess, could go either way but they're not going to be as inexperienced as kids here), on and on.

I just think living and/or growing up in urban or rural areas is better for all involved, and suburbia stunts too much experience and enjoyment to be worth it.

I grew up in suburbia. So did most of us I'd wager. Was it boring? Sometimes. But I think I took for granted the massive yard we had and the natural parks that were nearby. I don't consider myself to be a boring, anesthetized human because of where I grew up.

[SignalHillHiker]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

I grew up in suburbia. So did most of us I'd wager. Was it boring? Sometimes. But I think I took for granted the massive yard we had and the natural parks that were nearby. I don't consider myself to be a boring, anesthetized human because of where I grew up.

Well, that's how I see you.

(Hahaha, kidding) lol

[Harrison]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Calgary’s got one right on Stephen Ave DT.

And Edmonton has one right on Jasper adjacent to the Downtown core.