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  #17021  
Old Posted Dec 4, 2022, 9:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nname View Post
BNE will rotate with YOW (x6) and CUN (6)

LAS is once again mainline 2x daily 7M8



Yeah, it does seems like AC is dehubbing YYC and consolidate frequencies to YVR. It actually started mid-summer this year, but it's very clear now they are winding down YYC operations, especially for transborder and express.

Starting from YXJ, this summer, then IAH, YZF, PHX, YHZ, YQB, and now a whole bunch of BC/SK routes (may involves some capacity shift to both YVR and YYZ, but hard to tell)

Now, I wonder for if AC will move or split the two remaining routes YYC-YQU and YYC-YMM to YVR? YMM is also served by YYZ, but might be easier to route them through YVR for US or Asia traffic (if they exists).
I don't think YQU or YMM will get service to YVR instead of YYC. Both of those cities aren't really growing (probably shrinking) and there's really not much demand to Asia or Europe or a large chunk of the US (from what I can tell, I don't have any concrete information). So there's not really much benefit to shifting the flights from AC's perspective I'd guess.

A lot of the Jazz cuts are due to operational challenges and apparently no Jazz jobs are being cut or relocated out of YYC. I fully expect AC/QK to still decrease their flight offerings out of YYC but some of the flights will probably be back.
     
     
  #17022  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2022, 3:27 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nname View Post
BNE will rotate with YOW (x6) and CUN (6)

LAS is once again mainline 2x daily 7M8



Yeah, it does seems like AC is dehubbing YYC and consolidate frequencies to YVR. It actually started mid-summer this year, but it's very clear now they are winding down YYC operations, especially for transborder and express.

Starting from YXJ, this summer, then IAH, YZF, PHX, YHZ, YQB, and now a whole bunch of BC/SK routes (may involves some capacity shift to both YVR and YYZ, but hard to tell)

Now, I wonder for if AC will move or split the two remaining routes YYC-YQU and YYC-YMM to YVR? YMM is also served by YYZ, but might be easier to route them through YVR for US or Asia traffic (if they exists).
Ah yes I see LAS has been flipped back to Max Mainline - good bye rouge except YQB

The YYC cuts aren’t just Jazz either. I also read that these latest cuts only represent 7% of ASM ex YYC. However, that doesn’t really paint the picture because these cuts are mainly coming from very short haul routes on smaller equipment. The number of departing seats and departing flights is a much higher % of the total operation
I think it all started when they cut YQL, YXH, YXC and the short lived YQF
It’s been a slow gradual drawdown but this recent set of cuts quite significant.
I’m sure partially related to Jazz operating difficulties but of course what do you cut first? Good performing bases/routes or poor performing bases/routes
     
     
  #17023  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2022, 6:33 AM
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Well, if it's only due to operation issue with Jazz, then the overall Express flights should be reduced from last summer, not increase, right?

Now this should show where the express flights go:

Code:
		YYZ	YVR	YUL	YYC	YOW	YHZ	YEG
	
S22:		1850	 963	 949	 463	 198	 180	 176

Mainline	 925	 498	 452	 229	 119	 103	 113
Rouge		 212	   3	 110	   4	   0	   0	   0
Express		 713	 462	 387	 230	  79	  77	  63


S23:		2168	1071	1151	 339	 238	 189	 195

Mainline	1000	 548	 502	 252	 112	 133	 125
Rouge		 328	   5	 163	   3	   0	   0	   0
Express		 840	 518	 486	  84	 126	  56	  70

If you just comparing express routes:

Code:
		YYZ	YVR	YUL	YYC	YOW	YHZ	YEG
S22:		713	462	387	230	 79	 77	 63

CR9		208	 87	105	126	 42	 14	 28
CRJ		200	  0	 21	  0	  0	  0	  0
E75		207	  0	129	  0	  0	  0	  0
DH4		 98	375	132	104	 37	 63	 35


S23:		840	518	486	 84	126	 56	 70

CR9		217	140	136	 21	 35	  0	 42
CRJ		175	  0	 35	  0	 35	  0	  0
E75		294	  0	189	  0	  0	  0	  0
DH4		154	378	126	 63	 56	 56	 28
Simply put, the total CR9 flights remains about the same but DH4 flights increased. The DH4 went to YYZ, the CR9 went to YVR and YUL.

Will need to see over the next few weeks for any further adjustment for Express flights though.

Last edited by nname; Dec 5, 2022 at 6:49 AM.
     
     
  #17024  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2022, 6:33 AM
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The elusive SEA-BLR route has disappeared from schedules again. It was supposed to start before COVID or maybe in 2020, can't remember, but always comes off the schedule and then re-added then removed again. Seems like such an odd route for American to add, considering they have no international presence in SEA. Yes they have the AS partnership, but how that equates to a BLR flight is strange. I know it's the high tech connection of course, but still, seems too niche to really work hence why it gets removed each time. If anything, you'd think it would be DL and not AA doing it.
     
     
  #17025  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2022, 12:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zahav View Post
The elusive SEA-BLR route has disappeared from schedules again. It was supposed to start before COVID or maybe in 2020, can't remember, but always comes off the schedule and then re-added then removed again. Seems like such an odd route for American to add, considering they have no international presence in SEA. Yes they have the AS partnership, but how that equates to a BLR flight is strange. I know it's the high tech connection of course, but still, seems too niche to really work hence why it gets removed each time. If anything, you'd think it would be DL and not AA doing it.
Another destination from Seattle, announced with fanfare several years back but is now seemingly off the destination roster was Munich, to be served by Lufthansa. Another Covid casualty?
     
     
  #17026  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2022, 1:01 PM
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I think this had been mentioned earlier but Aeroroutes posted this

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/221205-acns23kix

Air Canada in Northern summer 2023 season plans to increase capacity on Vancouver – Osaka Kansai route, set to resume on 02JUN23. Planned 4 weekly service with 787-8 is unchanged initially, but this will switch to -9 from 16JUN23.

AC023 YVR1310 – 1610+1KIX 789 x246
AC024 KIX1750 – 1120YVR 789 x357
     
     
  #17027  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2022, 7:38 PM
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Originally Posted by zahav View Post
BKK is such uncharted territory for any carrier from any North American city. There's obviously a reason why no one has flown the route, even from a powerhouse like LAX. LAX holds the rare distinction of being a main hub for all three major US airlines, so it has massive appeal. And yet not one of them launched BKK. So I am thrilled AC is trying it, and it's too early to read into the couple week shorter season as being a sign of failure. As others have said, this is probably an aircraft utilization issue. So in that sense yes, it is probably not doing as well as YUL-CDG or another major route, but that doesn't mean it's underperforming in its own right. Time will tell what happens, or until someone with real inside intel educates us, otherwise we're all just baselessly speculating.

I don't personally see more Indian destinations in the immediate future. For the reasons others have said, where our Indian population descends from. Mostly Punjabi, and even if not Punjabi or Sikh, they are usually from the more northern regions. I think the population from other parts of India is growing, but not enough to justify any other city pairs IMO. And honestly, I would much rather have Delhi at this higher frequency with larger aircraft. Daily 777s from AI is something people would have only dreamed of years ago, when scoring India was still elusive. I'm sure eventually AC will rejoin the route, and maybe even properly codeshare with AI (ahem, they are *Alliance partners after all...)

And echoing what everyone else has said on the AC transborder growth. Very encouraging, and long overdue. And very happy to see it on mainline with 737s, and not just Jazz (hey, I'd be happy with some new Jazz routes too, especially since they could serve smaller places). Taking EWR to double daily is smart, a decent capacity boost but more importantly gives way more flexibility for inbound and outbound connections. I believe the 789 on this route originated and departed to BNE? So BNE will be rotating with another route (I thought YYZ but just checked and the 787 from YYZ arrives at 18:51 while BNE departs at 22:50. Quite a long time to remain at gate, the EWR turn was much tighter aka more efficient. When I have time I will do my chart of inbound/outbound wide body AC flights and figure out the rotation. It's actually fairly easy to guess based on aircraft type and arrival/departure time.

I don't like losing any routes, but honestly the DFW flight showed its weakness when it went do to a single Jazz flight, pretty meagre. I would much rather see AA keep up capacity on the route than for AC to muscle it out. Just like how I was content with AC dropping CDG, I was happy it resulted in AF increasing capacity instead of just having it be a loss. Part of what I love about YVR is that other airlines have a real place at the table, and that a domestic airline doesn't monopolize. I like that Air Canada has some niche routes like BKK, DUB, KIX, and then foreign carriers have their own routes like MNL, TPE, CDG, SIN, IST. But then share on the huge markets like LON, FRA, TOKYO, SYD (as well as some smaller ones like ZRH and AKL in peak times). YVR is big but not THAT big, so if there were too many shared routes, I feel like something would have to give, and that could mean losing carriers. Honestly as much as I'd love for AC to beef up YVR even more, if it came down to it, I love the variety of foreign tails even more. And if there's isn't room for both AC and a competitor on a foreign route, I'd rather see the foreign carrier keep it. AC will still have a commanding presence and isn't throwing in the towel with service here. But they are obviously conscious of what works and what doesn't, and aren't going to keep flying routes like CDG and TPE if they aren't working (ie. too much competition). If we all of a sudden lost both carriers on a certain route, then I'd be very upset. And other than routes to China (which isn't even relevant to be discussed in its current state), we have not lost any route outright I don't think? Other than SJC on Jazz?

Last thing, I am beyond thrilled seeing AC put capacity on YVR-YHZ, soooooo long overdue! And increasing YQB. It was really a big blind spot in YVR's network to have no service to either Quebec or any of Atlantic Canada. I have personal bias because of my ties to there, but even putting that aside, it really was a glaring void for the 2nd busiest airport in Canada. We're still way behind the service YYC has thanks to WS, but it's a big improvement. And again, a show of confidence in the performance that they are x2 daily to YHZ for the peak season. 5x weekly to YQB is nice, but daily mainline would be better obviously lol. Maybe it's my OCD, but the fact that we're Rouge-free except for 5 flights to Quebec City is like a pristine painting with a splotch on it lol... As if mainline managed to show so much love even on major leisure routes but then throws those 5 flights in as a spoiler haha
Good points there. Although with WestJet having 7 Boeing 787's & adding new 3x weekly flights to Tokyo NRT, Barcelona BCN & Edinburgh EDI from Calgary YYC for Spring/Summer 2023.

There's a chance Vancouver YVR - London LGW could be cut or operate at reduced frequencies. But will see.

As WS 7 787 planes will be flying quite frequently & plus tight turn arounds & the time to do maintenance checks. There's not much slack left.
     
     
  #17028  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2022, 8:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nname View Post
Well, if it's only due to operation issue with Jazz, then the overall Express flights should be reduced from last summer, not increase, right?

Simply put, the total CR9 flights remains about the same but DH4 flights increased. The DH4 went to YYZ, the CR9 went to YVR and YUL.

Will need to see over the next few weeks for any further adjustment for Express flights though.
Your chart clearly shows it’s a transfer of capacity out of YYC so it’s not just operational.

With Westjet’s latest expansion plans at YYC they are wiping the floor with AC there… AC has conceded - total ops will be only 48 daily flights - 36 mainline and 12 Express - welcome to focus city territory
     
     
  #17029  
Old Posted Dec 6, 2022, 7:06 PM
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Originally Posted by hehehe View Post
I don't think YQU or YMM will get service to YVR instead of YYC. Both of those cities aren't really growing (probably shrinking) and there's really not much demand to Asia or Europe or a large chunk of the US (from what I can tell, I don't have any concrete information). So there's not really much benefit to shifting the flights from AC's perspective I'd guess.
They just added YUL-YMM, so YVR-YMM aren't that out of the question. Maybe it'll come next year if they continue to reduce the YYC hub and when Asia open up more.

Actually, I'd expect YVR-YMM first, but then given the European feed is much more than the Asian ones right now, plus the fact that AC is simply moving 3x weekly from YYZ to YUL for the new service, it's not unreasonable I guess...
     
     
  #17030  
Old Posted Dec 6, 2022, 7:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nname View Post
They just added YUL-YMM, so YVR-YMM aren't that out of the question. Maybe it'll come next year if they continue to reduce the YYC hub and when Asia open up more.

Actually, I'd expect YVR-YMM first, but then given the European feed is much more than the Asian ones right now, plus the fact that AC is simply moving 3x weekly from YYZ to YUL for the new service, it's not unreasonable I guess...
Definitely need Asia to recover. They did serve YMM for a couple of years not all that long ago. But I’m sure that will return.
YYC’s updated schedule is focussing on the larger O&D markets only. There are literally no feeder routes left. Transborder continues to get descimated.
Westjet will lap it all up for sure making it even harder to reinstate the cut routes.
AC can really focus on building up YVR even more.
     
     
  #17031  
Old Posted Dec 6, 2022, 8:14 PM
thenoflyzone thenoflyzone is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nname View Post
Well, if it's only due to operation issue with Jazz, then the overall Express flights should be reduced from last summer, not increase, right?

Now this should show where the express flights go:

Code:
		YYZ	YVR	YUL	YYC	YOW	YHZ	YEG
	
S22:		1850	 963	 949	 463	 198	 180	 176

Mainline	 925	 498	 452	 229	 119	 103	 113
Rouge		 212	   3	 110	   4	   0	   0	   0
Express		 713	 462	 387	 230	  79	  77	  63


S23:		2168	1071	1151	 339	 238	 189	 195

Mainline	1000	 548	 502	 252	 112	 133	 125
Rouge		 328	   5	 163	   3	   0	   0	   0
Express		 840	 518	 486	  84	 126	  56	  70

If you just comparing express routes:

Code:
		YYZ	YVR	YUL	YYC	YOW	YHZ	YEG
S22:		713	462	387	230	 79	 77	 63

CR9		208	 87	105	126	 42	 14	 28
CRJ		200	  0	 21	  0	  0	  0	  0
E75		207	  0	129	  0	  0	  0	  0
DH4		 98	375	132	104	 37	 63	 35


S23:		840	518	486	 84	126	 56	 70

CR9		217	140	136	 21	 35	  0	 42
CRJ		175	  0	 35	  0	 35	  0	  0
E75		294	  0	189	  0	  0	  0	  0
DH4		154	378	126	 63	 56	 56	 28
Simply put, the total CR9 flights remains about the same but DH4 flights increased. The DH4 went to YYZ, the CR9 went to YVR and YUL.

Will need to see over the next few weeks for any further adjustment for Express flights though.

Great work, as always, nname.

Based on your numbers, seems to me YYZ and YUL are seeing the bulk of increases for next summer. YVR's increase is mediocre, by comparison, both at mainline and express.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nname View Post
They just added YUL-YMM, so YVR-YMM aren't that out of the question. Maybe it'll come next year if they continue to reduce the YYC hub and when Asia open up more.

Actually, I'd expect YVR-YMM first, but then given the European feed is much more than the Asian ones right now, plus the fact that AC is simply moving 3x weekly from YYZ to YUL for the new service, it's not unreasonable I guess...
It is strange that YVR has no service to YMM. Could be most of the demand was domestic, hence why YYC made more sense, especially if connecting eastbound after that. AC still has a decent core domestic network through YYC, so could be that's the reason why YVR might be redundant, for now.

AC resuming YYZ-YMM and starting YUL-YMM opens up more one stop options in Eastern Canada, options not available through YYC or YVR.
     
     
  #17032  
Old Posted Dec 6, 2022, 8:22 PM
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Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
Based on your numbers, seems to me YYZ and YUL are seeing the bulk of increases for next summer. YVR's increase is mediocre, by comparison, both at mainline and express.
The S21 number are AFTER the reduction due to operation issue, so it would've been about 100 more with the original plan.

YYZ is actually quite far away from the pre-pandemic number, which was about 2600. YVR/YUL is half of that at 1300, and YYC is half of that again at 650.


Quote:
Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
It is strange that YVR has no service to YMM. Could be most of the demand was domestic, hence why YYC made more sense, especially if connecting eastbound after that. AC still has a decent core domestic network through YYC, so could be that's the reason why YVR might be redundant, for now.
I think YUL/YYZ-YMM is AC's response to the WS's expansion in YYC on the European routes. Since they will be connecting anyways, YUL/YYZ combo offers more choices than what WS offers at YYC.
     
     
  #17033  
Old Posted Dec 6, 2022, 8:46 PM
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Originally Posted by nname View Post
The S21 number are AFTER the reduction due to operation issue, so it would've been about 100 more with the original plan.

YYZ is actually quite far away from the pre-pandemic number, which was about 2600. YVR/YUL is half of that at 1300, and YYC is half of that again at 650.




I think YUL/YYZ-YMM is AC's response to the WS's expansion in YYC on the European routes. Since they will be connecting anyways, YUL/YYZ combo offers more choices than what WS offers at YYC.
YMM is a city of 65,000 people, with around 100,000 in the very large region. Smaller than most Toronto suburbs. This really won't have a huge effect on Europe flights.

This is most likely a case of AC needing something to do with Rouge planes in the summer, lots of people in YMM from out east who go back and forth a lot, and reduced connections via YYC. AC dropped YMM- yeg while ago too.
     
     
  #17034  
Old Posted Dec 7, 2022, 1:47 AM
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YMM will be back one day. As I said wait until Asia recovers.
Good to see YVR will be AC’s #2 mainline base again next summer.
     
     
  #17035  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2022, 10:09 AM
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Looks like Porter is coming to YVR

https://www.flyporter.com/en-ca/book-flights/where-we-fly

Showing 3 routes:
YVR-YYZ
YVR-YOW
YVR-YUL

Looks like 1x daily flight starting Feb 7, 2023... increasing to 3x daily in summer.


Last edited by nname; Dec 8, 2022 at 10:40 AM.
     
     
  #17036  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2022, 10:25 AM
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I wonder which type of aircraft they use out of YVR. The Embraer jets I would think, given that the propellor-driven Dash is slower and used on shorter hauls. Then again, maybe I'm mistaken.
     
     
  #17037  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2022, 10:30 AM
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I wonder which type of aircraft they use out of YVR. The Embraer jets I would think, given that the propellor-driven Dash is slower and used on shorter hauls. Then again, maybe I'm mistaken.
Will be Embraer E195-E2 which they'll be receiving starting this month.
     
     
  #17038  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2022, 3:50 PM
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Meanwhile AC to continue expanding transborder at YVR

https://media.aircanada.com/2022-12-08-A...es-to-JFK-Airport-from-Toronto,-Montreal

YVR-MIA and YVR-IAH to go year round
Resumptions to ANC, AUS and BOS
Increases to SFO, SEA, SAN and EWR
     
     
  #17039  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2022, 5:36 PM
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Originally Posted by nname View Post

That's a weird looking great circle route map.

Here are the same routes on Great Circle Mapper:

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  #17040  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2022, 7:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie View Post
Meanwhile AC to continue expanding transborder at YVR

https://media.aircanada.com/2022-12-08-A...es-to-JFK-Airport-from-Toronto,-Montreal

YVR-MIA and YVR-IAH to go year round
Resumptions to ANC, AUS and BOS
Increases to SFO, SEA, SAN and EWR
IAH, ANC, AUS, BOS, SFO, SEA, EWR changes already opened for reservation before the PR

SAN there is no change yet, still 2x weekly mainline

MIA in the PR says 3x weekly, but reservation opened for 6x weekly for a week in May, then down to 2x weekly through the summer.


Now for peak summer, 8am departure 7M8 that's less than a daily:
YVR-AUS 157
YVR-MIA 46
YVR-PVR 24

Where are they going to find the extra plane to operate on Thursday?
     
     
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